Parliamentary power: Kurds did not provide a convincing justification for non-commitment to pay oil money

[Butifldrm]

 

Kurdistan

Sunni Arabs will ‘honor will’ of the Kurds, said group of tribal leaders

By Rudaw 15 hours ago

Sunni Arab tribal leaders meet in Erbil to voice support for the independence referendum dismiss measures taken by the Iraqi government and parliament again the Kurdistan Region. Photo: Rudaw video

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – A group of Sunni Arab tribes threw their support behind the Kurdistan Region, showing solidarity with Erbil amid tightened measures taken by Baghdad against the Region in response to its independence bid.

The Sunni tribal leaders met in Erbil on Thursday where they lashed out at recent rulings from the Iraqi parliament and government against the Region. Saying Kurds protected Sunni Arabs in Iraq, the tribal leaders unanimously rejected any sort of punishment imposed on the Region by Baghdad.

Following their conference, the Sunni tribal leaders issued a joint statement about Kurdistan’s independence referendum: “The self-determination right is a natural and embodying right admired by all the religious texts.”

They asserted that recent parliament rulings are not legal “as the parliament does not have such legal rights to make such decisions.”

“The Sunni Arabs voice support and coordination with Kurdistan and honor their will and decisions,” the statement added.

They deemed the referendum as the beginning of a new phase of relations to resolve Iraq’s problems and provide equal rights to Kurds, Arabs, Sunnis, Shiites, Turkmen, and Christians.

"The Sunni Arabs of Iraq are facing the threat of terror. The Iraqi government is pursuing sectarianism as we are prohibited entry into Baghdad for four years now,” complained Najih Mizan, spokesperson of the Sunni Arabs in a press conference.

Mizan added, “The Kurds played a fundamental role in the new Iraq. We are rejecting any form of punishment against the Kurdistan Region.”

He said they would join “the Kurdistan independent state and our rights will be secured in it.”

He decried what he called Sunni elite in the Iraqi government, arguing they do not represent Sunnis as a whole, but implement the agenda of others.

Mizan said Iraq has become a sectarian and tribal state under the control of a single party that is under the thumb of Iran. “No one could accept that,” he said.

After 92.73 percent of voters chose independence for Kurdistan in Monday’s referendum, Baghdad has rejected the result and issued a series of orders to ban flights, shut the borders, close foreign representations, assert control over oil exports, and deploy troops to disputed areas.

Both Erbil and Baghdad are accusing the other of acting illegally and contrary to the constitution.

 

http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/280920179

[Butifldrm]

Congressman Franks: US against blockade of Kurdistan Region

By Rudaw 3 hours ago

-

Republican Congressman of Arizona Trent Franks who was one of the first to come out in support of the Kurdish referendum this week, tells Rudaw that the United States will not accept any blockade of the Kurdistan Region.

 

“We’d be very much against that and would work to try to mediate that and stop it in any way that we could,” he told Rudaw.

 

“Any effort to blockade the Kurdish people is a wrong thing.” Congressman Franks added.

 

He said that the Kurds should not be punished for “having the audacity to want freedom,”

 

“I’m not here to tell the Kurds one way or another but I’m here to say that they’ve that right to self-determination.” The Arizona Representative said.

 

He went on to say that he did not think President Donald Trump would accept the blockade either.

 

“I don’t think his administration will look upon that with anything but anger and frustration and it could even invoke action on their part.”

 

“The president has shown a commitment to freedom in the world in general. I wouldn’t seek to speak for him in terms of what his position on all these issues are but I’m convinced that his would be similar to mine in terms of a people who have demonstrated a kind of commitment to several areas of freedom as the Kurds have done and deserve the right to self-determination.”

 

http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/29092017

[yota691]

"Barzani agrees to freeze the results of the referendum for two years"

  Twilight News    

 

 3 hours ago

 

 

"The President of the Kurdistan Region Massoud Barzani told Iraqi Vice President Iyad Allawi, yesterday, his readiness to respond to the initiative put forward by the latter to contain the escalating crisis between Baghdad and Erbil, against the background of the independence referendum conducted by the region last Monday. 

Iraqi sources familiar with the details of the initiative said that Barzani sent a written response to the initiative yesterday, in which he expressed his readiness to "wait for two years, in which we communicate through an extended constructive dialogue to discuss all the issues and issues that together make us partners in building the future for our two peoples. De facto in any region. "

Barzani said in his reply that "your call to dialogue as a tool to address controversial issues and to reject the method of threat and intransigence and waving of force is what we have called to adopt since the outbreak of the crisis and coupled with our approach to the referendum on the determination of our fate and we are still at the same option, the option of prolonged dialogue leading to understanding, Arms and wills ". 

He pointed out that he finds in the initiative "elements that form the basis for a return to the logic of reason and wisdom, and a platform to mobilize the forces and parties and blocs participating in governance and beyond, take the responsibility to research the logic of rights and justice and understanding in all that removes the congestion that some want him to remain charged, Who is waiting to seize the opportunity and prepare for all the remaining potential to achieve the aspirations of Iraqi brothers to a democratic civil state based on the basis of free citizenship and institutions that guarantee freedoms and social justice.

He pointed out that "the referendum does not mean the establishment of the state directly, but we are ready to wait until two years in which we communicate through a constructive dialogue extended to discuss all the issues and issues that make us partners in building the future of our two peoples without imposing the status quo on any region." 

He said that "in your initiative are positive elements, especially calling for the cessation of escalation and mobilization and the recruitment of parliament to take punitive decisions, including implicit calls to declare war immediately, contrary to the Constitution, which they maintain." "We are open to your initiative and ready to cooperate with you."

Allawi has announced an initiative to contain the crisis that was raised after the referendum on the independence of Kurdistan, appealed to Barzani and the leadership of the region, "freezing the results of the referendum during a constructive transition period in which there is a national dialogue responsible and constructive to address all differences in order to ensure and preserve the common heritage and promote it and devotes all that strengthens Arab brotherhood Kurdish, and lead to the achievement of a unified federal democratic Iraq. " 

The initiative called for subjecting the fate of Kirkuk and the disputed areas to "the provisions of Article 140 of the Constitution of the country and addressing the violations that deepen national participation and respond to the interests of all segments and extinguish the fuse of sedition between them." 

And called on "the Authority and the parties to the political process, and in particular the forces of the National Alliance and the Kurds," to abandon the call for escalation and the use of the language of revenge and intimidation and waving a military solution.

He also asked the government and the military to stand firmly against any violation of the sanctity of all citizens, and the refusal of interference by any party to the conflict, nor armed confrontation except with terrorism and intimidation and Takfiri terrorism.

[Butifldrm]

Barzani ‘Ready’ to Freeze Independence for 2 Years

ASHARQ AL-AWSAT5 hours ago 67

 

Syrian Kurds wave the Kurdish flag, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on September 27, 2017, during a gathering in support of the independence referendum in Iraq's autonomous northern Kurdish region. AFP PHOTO / DELIL SOULEIMAN

 

London- Informed sources confirmed that President of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani informed Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi on Thursday that he was “ready” to cooperate with the latter’s initiative to contain the growing crisis between Baghdad and Erbil that erupted due to the Kurdistan referendum on independence held earlier in the week.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Barzani sent a written response in which he expressed his readiness to “wait for two years during which a constructive national dialogue will kick off to deal with all files and issues that make us partners in building the future of our peoples without imposing a fait accompli on any area.”

Barzani was alluding to the disputed areas between Baghdad and Erbil, including the oil-rich Kirkuk province, which Allawi said in his initiative, should be subject to the provision of Article 140 of the Constitution and that violations of such matter shall be dealt with in a manner that deepens national participation and responds to the interests of all segments of the country.

“Your call for dialogue to solve the disputed issues and reject the threatening and inflexible conduct are matters we called for since the start of the crisis and since we proposed to hold a referendum that should decide our fate,” Barzani also mentioned in his response to Allawi.

He added: “We are open to your initiative and are ready to cooperate with you.”

Last Monday, Allawi called on Barzani to freeze results of the referendum during a constructive transitional phase in which a responsible and constructive national dialogue will be held to deal with all aspects of the dispute in a way that preserves the common heritage and to achieve a unified federal democratic Iraq.

Allawi also called on the government and a number of parties to the political process to abandon the language of escalation and revenge.

 

https://english.aawsat.com/theaawsat/news-middle-east/barzani-ready-freeze-independence-2-years

[nannab]

Thank you Yota and Butifldrm !  Now there is no logical reason not to vote and pass all laws.  Come on Article 140 HCL RV.

[DoD]

23 minutes ago, yota691 said:

"Barzani agrees to freeze the results of the referendum for two years" 

 

Thanks for the articles yota...

Barzani is showing that there was never much planning going into this referendum vote. He either hadn't thought about or never expected Abadi to take over airports, borders and the banking system in Kurdistan. Now is the right time in my opinion for Abadi and the GOI to pass the laws that they need to pass without the Kurds interference. They should create and word the HCL and article 140 the way they want it to read. The HCL includes all of Iraq not just the Kurdistan region, I'm sure the folk in Basra would like it put into law.  

I have never cared for Barzani and his den of thieves but really like their army. The Peshmerga army is one of the best in the middle east. Anyway this move by Barzani could be the big break were looking for within this madness...

[jcfrag]

The bad news is now their back to talking again.  Might be awhile (anytime in the next 2 years) before they hammer it out....  

[yota691]

Urgent : Abadi office: control of the ports of the region is not for starvation but for control

Release date: 2017/9/29 15:22 • 16 times read

[yota691]

Barzani pledges in an oral message to Abadi to hand over airports and border crossings

 

 

 

Number of readings: 134083 29-09-2017 12:52 PM

 

 

29-09-2017 12:52 PM 

 

 

Sources familiar with the receipt of the President of the Republic Fuad Masum call transmitting the approval of the region on a section of the measures announced by Abadi after the vote of the Kurds on the referendum.

The sources revealed that the head of the Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani phone infallible and informed him of non-objection of the province, the federal government to keep the border crossings and airports, pledging to hand over to the Civil Aviation Authority within hours and border crossings within two weeks in exchange for not closing any of them.

In the meantime, the Minister of Transport of the Government of the province Mouloud Murad contacted the Federal Ministry of Transport to arrange the joint management of the Erbil and Sulaymaniyah airports from Friday.

[gregp]

Thanks Yota and Buti

 

now they can create a committee to study the problems between the regions. 

🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀😁😁

[yota691]

Interior of Kurdistan: We have not received any instructions on the delivery of border crossings

 

Friday, 29 September

 

 

 

Alsumaria News / Baghdad  , the Interior Ministry announced in the province of Kurdistan , on Friday, did not receive any instructions on the delivery of border crossings to Iraqi forces.  "The ministry has not received any instructions from the higher authorities on the delivery of border crossings to the Iraqi government," Kurdish media quoted sources in the Interior Ministry as saying.  A security source said earlier Friday that convoys of officers and appointments will be launched tomorrow from Baghdad to receive the ports of Kurdistan.   The Prime Minister Haider Abadi pledged, Wednesday (September 27, 2017), to impose the "rule of Iraq " in all areas of the Kurdistan region by what he called "the power of the Constitution," while stressing that his government will defend the Kurdish citizens inside and outside the region.  The Iraqi government, on Sunday (24 September 2017), the Kurdistan region to hand over all border crossings including airports to the authority of the federal government, calling on all countries of the world to deal with "exclusively" in the ports and oil outlets, while confirmed that "will not discuss or discuss" On the subject of the referendum and its "unconstitutional" results.

[yota691]

Al-Abbadi Office issues a statement regarding the control of land and air ports in Kurdistan

- 9/29/2017 3:22:00 AM144 Number of readings

 

 

 

 

Khandan -

Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi announced on Friday a statement on the central government's control of land and air ports in the Kurdistan region. 

"The Iraqi government preserves the rights and gains of all our people, including our Kurdish people, and any action taken to ensure that they are not harmed," the press office said. 

He pointed out that "the control of the central government on the land and air passages in the Kurdistan region is not to starve and prevent supplies and siege on the citizens in the region, as alleged by some officials in the Kurdistan region and try to promote, but the procedures for the entry and exit of goods and individuals to the territory under the control of the federal government and federal regulatory agencies, Is implemented at all Iraqi ports to ensure smuggling and prevent corruption. "

The statement also pointed out that "the imposition of federal authority in the airports of the Kurdistan region is to transfer the authority of airports in Kurdistan to the federal authority according to the Constitution, as is the case in all Iraqi airports in other provinces and as is the practice in all countries of the world, 

"As soon as the airport authority is transferred to the center, the international flights will continue. This is not a punishment for the citizens in the region, but it is a constitutional and legal procedure approved by the Council of Ministers for the benefit of citizens in Kurdistan and other regions."

[chinadawg]

Sounds better today than yesterday.

[Flamtap]

Thanks Yota! 

It sounds like that last little quick dip of the roller coaster before it comes to a complete stop. 

 

Go RV 

[Half Crazy Runner]

52 minutes ago, chinadawg said:

Sounds better today than yesterday.

 

Yes indeed!! 

[umbertino]

 

This week’s overwhelming referendum result shows that it’s time to end this forced marriage to post-Saddam Iraq

 

 

Friday 29 September 2017 14.23 BST

 

By Amjed Rasheed

 

 

 

 

Iraqi Kurds celebrate the results of the independence referendum in Erbil.

Photograph: Safin Hamed/AFP/Getty Images

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/29/kurdish-freedom-referendum-iraq

[DinarThug]

http://aynaliraqnews.com/index.....id22=83181

Expert: The stability of the federal budget under the control of the government on the oil of Kirkuk and the region

 

29th September, 2017

 

The economic analyst, Al-Amin Al-Amin, on Friday, exceeded the price of a barrel of crude $ 60 during the next month because of the referendum crisis in the Kurdistan region and the subsequent actions of the federal government.

Al-Amin told "Iraq News" that "the actions of the federal government to control the oil wells in Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region are constitutional procedures, considering that the oil wealth is the property of the Iraqi people and the Federal Ministry of Oil management in terms of extraction and maintenance and export, Of closing the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea and the export of Iraqi oil from Kirkuk to the countries of the world, in protest against the referendum.

"The previous measures, which will be followed by the loss of the oil market more than 550 thousand barrels per day of Iraqi oil, which was exported through the port of Ceyhan," pointing out that "the global market will witness next month an increasing demand for crude oil."

"The increasing demand in the oil market with the loss of 550 thousand barrels per day in line with the commitment of oil exporting countries within and outside OPEC to reduce production will ensure a rise in prices may exceed the barrier of $ 60 a barrel."

"The possibility of rising oil prices will serve Iraq, which is facing fierce battles against terrorism in addition to the reconstruction of liberated areas and the return of displaced persons, along with the annual fiscal deficit in previous budgets and increased expenditures to provide services to citizens," he said, adding that "this will be reflected on the budget 2018, which is expected to be in accordance with the probability of higher oil prices less deficit than its predecessors and more contribution to the repayment of domestic and external debt. "

 

[Officiallytook]

"

Barzani agrees to freeze the results of the referendum for two years"

By Butifldrm, May 3 "

 

If they knew what was good for em

[Laid Back]

I believe there is a plan behind Kurdistan and Baghdad conflict... Oil prices are going up.!

 

They need a lot of money for the reconstruction of liberated areas.

 

Its coming.... Oil for all Iraqis.... Land fo all Iraqis.... Wealth for all Iraqis 

 

Go Iraq United 

Go oil prices

Go reconstruction 

Go $1:1

 

[NEPatriotsFan1]

Good Observation Laid Back! Adam's always said the oils price needed to be up and it makes sense that this is theater to distract the masses from the truth... fingers crossed 

[tigergorzow]

Yota,  DT Thanks,  DV,  It looks like Barzani is coming to his senses.

 

GO Abadi

 

GO HCL

 

GO RV / RI

[ChuckFinley]

6 hours ago, DoD said:

 

Thanks for the articles yota...

Barzani is showing that there was never much planning going into this referendum vote. He either hadn't thought about or never expected Abadi to take over airports, borders and the banking system in Kurdistan. Now is the right time in my opinion for Abadi and the GOI to pass the laws that they need to pass without the Kurds interference. They should create and word the HCL and article 140 the way they want it to read. The HCL includes all of Iraq not just the Kurdistan region, I'm sure the folk in Basra would like it put into law.  

I have never cared for Barzani and his den of thieves but really like their army. The Peshmerga army is one of the best in the middle east. Anyway this move by Barzani could be the big break were looking for within this madness...

Agree with you there DoD. Since I see Vegas, do you want to give us odds?  

[ChuckFinley]

6 hours ago, gregp said:

Thanks Yota and Buti

 

now they can create a committee to study the problems between the regions. 

🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀😁😁

I heard that was to be done in the coming days.    

[cws]

9 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said:

I heard that was to be done in the coming days.    

 

But first they need to declare a new holiday!!

[yota691]

Special Report and Interview

Kurdistan: A General’s Overview

• JAY D. HOMNICK

September 29, 2017, 12:05 am
 

We follow a Brigadier General onto a political minefield.

Well, the Kurds have gone ahead and done their referendum, overruling the quibbles and frets of all the “stability” junkies in the Middle East policy community. That community, such as it is, has long followed the weird thought pattern that whatever is worst in the Middle East must be preserved, because those behaviors represent “intransigent” local custom and cultural standard, not to be intruded upon by meddlesome Westerners. On the other hand, whatever is best in the Middle East is viewed as aberrant and therefore negotiable.

Thus the ability of the Kurds to keep the peace in Northern Iraq, under the aegis of the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government), quietly keeping ISIS and other troublemakers at bay, is rarely lauded. When a good word must occasionally be said, it always has a grumpy echo. So the West, especially the US State Department, dances around the feckless government of Iraq while tolerating the Kurds. Tillerson’s boys asked the Kurds to delay the referendum until some indeterminate “better” time in the future. On the other hand, Benjamin Netanyahu promised to recognize the results of the plebiscite, always eager to have another friendly sovereign in the region.

Turkey and Syria do not want independence for the Kurds anywhere, because it will give “ideas” to the Kurds within their own borders. When the vote on September 25 called for independence, Erdogan of Turkey took to the airwaves to issue threats. Among other things, the KRG controls upwards of 20% of the oil in Iraq, and ships it for sale through Turkish pipelines. This gives Erdogan a great deal of leverage; we watch the next moves warily.

No one in the United States of America, whether military or political or academic, knows Kurdistan like my dear friend, Brigadier General Ernest Audino, U.S. Army (Ret.), who spent a year imbedded as a combat advisor to the Kurdish forces. After his extraordinary career, he joined the London Center for Policy Research as a Senior Military Fellow. (Mister Tyrrell and I are Senior Fellows as well, but decidedly of the civilian variety.) Having set the stage just enough, I will now tiptoe into the wings and surrender the stage to the General’s commanding presence.

 

TAS: General, I know you not only have the inner workings of Kurdistan in your brain, the “country” is also in your heart…

GEA: Call me Ernie…

TAS: Well, yes, General, but I feel the weight and dignity of our Armed Forces is on your shoulders as we speak…

GEA: Call me Ernie. And I am not speaking for the Army, just sharing my personal opinion.

TAS: Ok, General… er, Ernie… stepping back from the noise for a moment, is sovereignty for Kurdistan a good idea? For itself? For Iraq? For the region?

GEA: Yes, and here’s a great reason from an American perspective… because Baghdad has become Tehran West.

When President Obama withdrew U.S. combat power from Iraq in 2012, Iran emerged as the dominant power in the gulf. Regaining a balance of power is in U.S. interest, but that means checking Iranian power, not accommodating it. The Iranians now dominate Baghdad and the southern 60% of the terrain in Iraq. How on Earth is it in our strategic interest to allow Iran to next dominate our Kurdish allies in the north of Iraq, too? It’s not.

Here’s the reality — the vast majority, if not all, of the Iraqi ministries are headed by Shia interests aligned with their co-religionists in Iran. The Iraqi Army is well over 75% Shia, probably more like 85%. On top of that, the Shia militias now number 110,000 men under arms. Tehran began building this force in 2014 after Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a fatwa authorizing the raising of an expressly Shia army inside Iraq. The Shia militias and the Iraqi Army then used their participation in the operation to liberate Mosul to move significant Iranian-controlled combat power north and to the west of Mosul. An estimated 40,000 Iranian proxies remain in position, and they have no intention whatsoever of ever returning home. They are even building out two airstrips to the west of Mosul. All of this means Iranian proxy forces are consolidating on three sides of our Kurdish allies, and those forces are positioned to compel Kurdish behavior in the future. That serves no Western interest.

It gets worse. This expanded Shia footprint sets the foundation for an Iranian land-bridge into Syria. Tehran has a clear strategic motivation to extend its influence across Kurdish soil, into Syria, along the southern border of our NATO ally, Turkey, and all the way to the Russian naval base at Tartus on the Syrian shoreline of the Mediterranean and to the Syrian border with Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.

In the face of all of this, some in Washington articulate the fantasy that a unified Iraq is the best counterbalance to Iran. No, a unified Iraq IS Iran.

Here’s a second reason — Kurdish energy reserves are large and have the potential to undermine Russian energy levers on our NATO allies in Brussels and Ankara. If Washington wants to help its allies help itself, then that means loosening Moscow’s tether on them.

Here’s a third reason — a sovereign and independent Kurdistan instantly doubles the number of friendly democracies in the region.

TAS: Do you really see that Kurdistan can be a real democracy like Israel?

GEA: Just listen to the Kurds when they speak. They talk about enterprise, freedom, liberty, Western curricula, independent media, free markets and freedom of religion. They say things like, “I wish I was an American citizen, so I could vote for Donald Trump.” Yeah, that kind of democracy.

Here’s another point. ISIS will not be destroyed and kept that way without the Kurds. The Iraqi Army ran away from ISIS in 2014, while the Kurds stepped forward and made the difference.

And the Kurds did this while Baghdad restricted Coalition equipping of the peshmerga and ceased all constitutionally required federal funding to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Erbil hasn’t received a single dinar of the Iraqi budget since the day ISIS launched its offensive three years ago. What a coincidence.

Furthermore, the long war to defeat the prevailing jihadi ideology will be won by the triumph of moderation in a debate within Sunni Islam. The Kurds are a well-known moderate voice that is consistently resistant to jihadi ideology. Need proof? While the black flag of ISIS fluttered throughout Sunni areas across Iraq and Syria, it stopped dead at the border to Kurdish-controlled soil.

Still, ISIS as an organization is incapable of handing a strategic defeat to the USA, but if Tehran and Moscow displace U.S. interests in the region, that is most certainly a strategic reversal.

TAS: Do you think this was a good time to have a referendum? Do you see any good coming out of this vote, or really any change at all?

GEA: History says there never is a good time for a referendum on independence. Independence just happens, and the world keeps revolving. Things get tougher before they get better. We Americans know that very well. We began fighting for our independence in 1776, won it, and then argued with each other until we fully ratified a constitution in 1789.

The Kurds are more prepared for this day than any other recently independent country. When the Coalition No-Fly Zone pushed Saddam Hussein off Kurdish backs in 1991, the Kurds pursued democracy, formed an autonomous government, elected a parliament, set the foundation for an economy, maintained armed forces and developed diplomatic relations. In essence they now have 26 years of practice for their Independence Day.

TAS: Do you think Erdogan will really pile on the sanctions? Would he go as far as embargos, blockades, direct attacks?

GEA: Erdogan will very likely impose some sanctions, but his public message is tempered by practical reality. Look at it this way, Ankara raised similar protests in 1991 when the Kurds of Iraq gained autonomy and began running their own affairs. This was supposed to be the end of the world! Instead, Turkey became the largest investor by far in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Shopping malls, swanky motels, top-notch restaurants, housing developments, you name it. Then the Turks and the Kurds built an oil pipeline north across the Turkish border. Rather than destabilizing, it turned out to be tremendously unifying. The Turks make money off each barrel pumped north, the Kurds make money off each barrel, and each side is motivated to keep that oil flowing. Sure, Erdogan’s threats can have some effect, but today the oil is still flowing, the borders are still open and flights are still flying.

TAS: Do you think Netanyahu will follow through on recognition? Would he stand up to Trump if he tells him directly not to do it? And do you think that recognition is meaningful to any third parties, outside the Israel-Kurdistan relationship?

GEA: No one can know what Mr. Netanyahu will ultimately decide, but we are still a long way away from a Kurdish declaration of independence. We won’t even have the results of the referendum for another 48 hours or so. The Kurdish leadership tells me the expected overwhelming yes vote only enables them to negotiate for their independence. Is that a year? Two years? Who knows? Whenever it comes, however, history suggests recognition will follow. It might come gradually one or two at a time, but the international community cannot oppose it forever. As soon as a heavy-hitter like the USA formally recognizes it, many others will follow.

TAS: Is it possible, and if possible is it likely, that the Kurds will end up in a worse position because of this move?

GEA: Well, let’s first look at their current position. They are part of a country unified in name only and headed by a regime in Baghdad chronically unable to exercise the basic functions of national governance. The USA has invested fortunes of blood and treasure into Baghdad in an effort to help it stand on its own two feet and play nice with everyone, but it hasn’t worked. The regime in Baghdad cannot defend Iraqi borders. It cannot provide for the security of its citizens. It cannot maintain a judiciary independent of the ayatollahs, its parliament is unable to act, and it cannot be trusted to fairly distribute federal revenues.

The Iraqi Constitution, for example, expressly provides for the allocation of federal revenues to the regional governments, the Kurds to receive 17%, but Baghdad has never disbursed the full amount to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Worse, still, when ISIS attacked three years ago Iraq canceled all federal disbursements to Kurdistan. The Kurds have been leading the ground war against ISIS, while safeguarding about 2 million ethnic and religious minorities fleeing predation elsewhere in Iraq, and doing so without a single dinar from Baghdad. No one flees to Baghdad. That speaks volumes.

The vast majority of Iraq is now functionally annexed by Iran. The reality is Kurdistan is not leaving Iraq — Iraq is leaving Kurdistan.

 

 

Border closings are threatened, but closings cause pain on both sides of the border, and eventually return to the status quo. Iraq’s threat to close the Kurds’ two commercial airports has made things tense, but as of today flights are still flying. Threats from Ankara to stop its imports of Kurdish oil, however, are of real concern, as the Kurdish economy has grown wholly dependent on them. Still, Ankara has a need for Kurdish oil.

Of course, military threats exist, too. The Kurds feel neither Ankara nor Baghdad are as likely to initiate clashes as are the Shia militias. The peshmerga I’ve talked to and visited recently on the battlefield are prepared and confident. The Kurdish will to defend their soil dramatically exceeds the will of an Iranian proxy to fight for it. Despite weeks of threats from Turkey, Iran and Iraq, the referendum was completed without a single instance of violence.

Ernie Audino, Brigadier General US Army (Ret), is a Senior Military Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research. He is also the only American general officer to have served a full year in Iraq as a combat advisor embedded with Kurdish peshmerga forces.