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Adam Montana

Adam Montana Weekly 29 April 2020

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Good read Adam, thanks for the updates and news that you share each week, as for the zombies, there may be some out there

91556561_2615476245439808_7533958818615525376_n.jpg

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WHOOP! DID YOU JUST MENTION A DATE?!?!

 

:lol:

 

I'm just HOPING that finalizing work on the

gubberment isn't the only thing they do!

 

:cigar:

 

:twothumbs:

THANKS for the uplifting update!

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Thanks Adam! Keep the train chuggin' along!!..  . It's got to stop at some point! Believingly...  SOON.   One thing for sure, we'll all have SUPER POWER PATIENCE..  😉

Edited by wealthhound
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Zombies....we don’t need a virus to create zombies....they are already here! 😳

image.png.1e4ba9ba5dcf090df1cee00322d853c1.png

Sandfly Adam for keepin’ it real, and “dang” positive!!! 🤗
Come On RV Baby!!!! 😉

Edited by RodandStaff
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Thanks for the update Adam, much appreciated..... We patiently wait :twothumbs:

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On 4/29/2020 at 5:27 PM, RodandStaff said:

Zombies....we don’t need a virus to create zombies....they are already here! 😳

image.png.1e4ba9ba5dcf090df1cee00322d853c1.png

Sandfly Adam for keepin’ it real, and “dang” positive!!! 🤗
Come On RV Baby!!!! 😉

RodandStaff that’s the truth!!!! It’s absolutely ridiculous!

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I haven’t posted anything on the stock market In a few weeks because the trend has been range bound. We broke out of the range Wednesday but it just didn’t feel right. Bad earnings on Thurs and Fri along with President Trump’s tweet for more Sanctions on China gave us some downward movement.  I’ve had my hands full Swing trading and Day Trading this market the last 3 weeks.  I currently have zero Swings and zero Long Investments. It just feels like we might be headed back down to the 2550 area on the S&P, especially if we break the 50 Ema.  The Market is very much in a Bear mode and News dependent.  

 

Things normally slow  way down after Q2 earnings and I can tell by the daily action we are probably 65-75% machine trade.  I’m going to Day Trade this market and watch the news and charts for another opportunity to Swing this past Quarter’s earnings winners. ( Yes there were many great earnings winners). Look for the break or bounce up off the 50 Ema on the S&P and listen to the news.  

 

Below is is an interesting chart comparing the current market pattern to the Market sell off in 1929.  It’s a little unnerving but it is what it is.  

 

 

67C15A7A-B1CC-4E6F-A927-5FFB664DD3C2.thumb.jpeg.71b6a7a62f76da06a213f2336574d27d.jpeg

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Stocks are in little danger of retesting the March low, top strategist Art Hogan says

106516384-6ed4-req-050120tradingnationhoganshort.jpg?v=1588368615&w=750&h=422

National Securities’ Art Hogan believes the consensus view that stocks must retest the March low is wrong.

According to Hogan, there are too many unprecedented factors, including an intentional decision to freeze the economy, to suggest the market will follow a preset course based on historical trends.

“That pace at which we got to the correction here is the fastest that we’ve ever seen,” the firm’s chief market strategist told CNBC’s Trading Nation” on Friday. “Usually it takes the Fed and certainly Congress a much longer time to adjust to the here and now and to find the corporate polices to support the economy, and they did that in record time.”

Hogan’s view may be on the more optimistic side, but he’s not expecting a sharp, sustainable rally.

“We’re in a middle ground where we’re a little bit more than 20% off the lows [and] a little bit less than 20% from the highs,” he said. “This is going to be a place we churn through for most of the first half.”

Stocks kicked-off May deep in negative territory. But since the March 23 low, the S&P 500 and Dow have surged 23% and 24%, respectively.

The rebound doesn’t surprise Hogan. 

Five days before the S&P 500 and Dow hit their lows, Hogan predicted on “Trading Nation” stocks would bottom before coronavirus cases peak in the United States. 

Now, he’s seeing some progress on the virus front.

“If new cases continue to plateau, then 2021 is certainly going to look a whole lot better than 2020,” he added. “I would argue that the second half looks way better than the first half of this year.”

Hogan, who has $15 billion in assets under management, speculates a slow and deliberate reopening of the economy will likely be successful and spark a demand frenzy.

“There has been a lot of delayed consumption,” he said. “There is going to be maybe some pent up economic energy that explodes into the fourth quarter and certainly into 2021.”

It’s a scenario, according to Hogan, that should put Wall Street and Main Street firmly back into the green.

“Corporate America has the ability to get back into place relatively quickly. This is not a great financial crisis,” Hogan said. “Going into this, the U.S. economy was in pretty good darn shape, and so was corporate America’s balance sheets.”

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Got a real nice trade in Roku today but the Market is still under some pressure. It’s held up so far today and if we don’t get a big selloff this afternoon maybe we go higher tomorrow.  I’m in full blown Day Trading mode these days.  I’ve tried a number of Swings but they all stalled.   I can wait, I do fine DT’ing what I see.  I think for the foreseeable future we are going to churn or be range bound while we wait for the CV to subside and the States to open back up.  2550 is my low range on the S&P and 2950 is the top range. Until we get above the 200 EMA I think we stay in that Trading zone.  

 

The earnings were bad but not as bad as many thought.  If we can just grind through the next 5-9 months without a huge second wave I think we will be ok.  With the Fed and our Government backstopping the Economy and the brightest minds in the world working on a vaccine I’m feeling good about things.  

 

I dont ever allow myself to get to pessimistic.   I’m always looking to get better and always looking for opportunities.  They are there and they are there every day for those who think correctly.

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Pitcher.....do you see any difference in the market speed of transactions with no traders on the floor?

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1 hour ago, Pitcher said:

With the Fed and our Government backstopping the Economy and the brightest minds in the world working on a vaccine I’m feeling good about things.

 

Thank You, Pitcher, for the stock market and investment activity updates!

 

I suspect the call for a COVID-19 or related mutation vaccination will rapidly decline as time goes on and the relatively mild severity of COVID-19 compared to other seasonal conditions, such as flu and pneumonia, is published. Medical professionals are coming forward and noting the significant inconsistencies between what is actually being experienced and reported where COVID-19 impacts have been greatly inflated.

 

The COVID-19 hype is a tool to generate a desired response - such as a generally unnecessary vaccination. Companies can profit, or even started up, from the artificial demand for vaccinations and other treatment faculties.

 

What is needed, of course, is for folks to return to work to prevent even more of an economic hit with associated burdens on mental health, domestic violence, child abuse, and suicide. The ancillary impacts of COVID-19 have been more severe than COVID-19 itself.

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41 minutes ago, boosterbglee said:

Pitcher.....do you see any difference in the market speed of transactions with no traders on the floor?

 

None whatsoever.  My trading style hasn’t been affected at all.  When I enter it’s almost simultaneous and when I exit it’s mere seconds.  

 

 

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In my post above I forgot to mention another key indicator.  When I was watching stocks go straight up from Nov-Jan I noticed the 30 year was going lower.  That’s when I began to suspect a blow off top run.  When we got below 1.00 I knew we were in trouble. Currently we are in the low .60’s.  If you see this rising consistently that will give you a decent idea the Recession, Bear Market is easing.  I’m not so sure that’s going to happen any time soon because the Fed has already signaled it plans on leaving rates very low for some time.  Ouch.  

 

Folks we are in a Bear Market and real bad damage has been done to our Economy.  This is not going to be solved for months. Minimum of 6-9 months imo, before we start a real recovery and that’s if the CV has run it’s course or a Vaccine has been developed.  Another thing to consider is a Democrat win of the WH, a Senate take over and a retaining of the House by the Dems.  If that happens and they start Raising taxes and regulations on Businesses the Recovery may never happen.  Just my opinion.  

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The big boys played a dirty trick on traders today.  They popped us up pretty good pre market and then took us sideways or in the case of oil, they shorted em down.  I just Trade what I see andI shorted FANG, Diamondback Energy for a nice trade.  It’s been  absolutely the toughest Market to Trade since 08-09.  One must tread lightly .  I’m not going to lie, I have scaled way back and pick my battles with extreme caution.  If you are a new trader this is NOT the time to be giving it a whirl.  Many times the best trade is NO trade.  Best to wait for better weather.

 

 The only thing holding this market up is the Fed and our Government.  They are trying to keep our heads above water.  I just read that our deficit as a % of GDP is forecasted to be 17.9% .  In 2019 we were 4.6.  Government, Corporate, and Household Debt is forecasted to raise dramatically in 2020.  In other words a Debt Bomb.  We’ll see, Forecasts can and are many times WRONG.  THE Doom and Gloomers are out in force today peddling their Fear.  

 

We have had a nice 2 day rally and we have a good support at the 50 Fib mark at 2800ish.  If we roll over and breach that number we’ll probably take out the EMA 20 and head to the next line of support around 2730 and then 2650-60.  If we break 2450 then I’ll get real concerned. Until we start breaking support levels all I see is a churn or trading range while the Market waits for news.  It’s not so bad.  It’s just tougher for guys like me who are trading it Daily.   If you are looking to enter for a long term investment my advice is still to wait.  I did some Swing or short term trading on the last big bounce but I haven’t gone Long for the 3-5 year trade yet.  Too much uncertainty for me.  Watch the news and watch for the 50 ema to cross up the 200 ema. That will be the beginning dinner bell and time to filter in for those Long term trades.  Yes, I did say filter in!!!!!  

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