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Everything posted by Pitcher

  1. Markets Brace For U.S. Decision On Iran Sanction Waivers Mar 18, 2019, 5:00 PM CDT Join Our Community Over the past few months, oil market participants and analysts focused on OPEC’s production cuts, soaring U.S. shale output, the U.S.-China trade dispute, projections of slowing oil demand growth, and most recently—the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry. While these factors are still on everyone’s mind, the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil are also returning to focus with the six-month waivers to key Iranian oil customers expiring in six weeks. The U.S. Administration continues to signal that the ultimate goal of the sanctions is zero Iranian exports, yet analysts believe that oil prices at end-April early-May will be a key factor in the decision whether to extend the waivers and demand additional reductions from Iranian oil customers. Meanwhile, Iran’s key buyers in Asia ramped up imports in January and February compared to November and December last year, when there was a lot of confusion over who is getting waivers and under what circumstances. Iranian customers, however, while hoping for—and some of them reportedly working to secure—waivers extensions, have drafted contingency plans for alternative oil supplies in case they won’t get new waivers. The U.S. granted waivers to eight of the major Iranian clients—including the biggest—China and India—after it slapped sanctions on Iran’s oil, sending oil prices sharply down in the fourth quarter of 2018, after the OPEC+ alliance had preemptively ramped up production to offset what the U.S. Administration promised to be “zero” Iranian oil exports. Related: Cuba Faces Oil Crisis As Venezuela Crumbles Oil prices plunged in Q4 as oversupply started to build again and as the market began to panic over the U.S.-China trade war with potential consequences on global trade, economic growth, and oil demand growth. Going into Q2 this year, the U.S. policy towards Iran’s oil exports will be one of the key factors for setting the trend of the oil prices. The price of oil, on the other hand, will be key to the U.S. Administration’s decision, consultancy Energy Aspects said in a recent note, as carried by Bloomberg. If prices stay at their current levels (Brent at around $67, WTI at $58), Energy Aspects sees the U.S. extending the waivers for China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey, with import caps slashed by 30-50 percent compared to what these countries are currently allowed to import from Iran. If oil prices rise, the allowed import levels may be lowered only by 20-30 percent, according to Energy Aspects. Last week, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that the United States would likely extend the waivers, but would demand additional reductions in imports, as the Administration is currently aiming at below 1 million bpd of Iranian oil exports. According to various tanker-tracking data, Iran’s oil exports were at around 1 million bpd-1.2 million bpd in January and February. The U.S. continues to aim for zero exports, officials say. Yet, considering other current market-tightening measures including OPEC’s cuts and the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, the Trump Administration could opt for another softer stance on waivers rather than risk running up oil prices to above $70 a barrel Brent, which doesn’t sit well with U.S. President Donald Trump. In his keynote address at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston last week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, referring to Iran: “You know its role in global energy markets. We know that role is diminishing. Its exports have tanked due to our pressure campaign, and we have every intention of driving Iranian oil exports to zero just as quickly as we can.” Related: IEA Warns Of Looming Oil Market Deficit “I’m not going to get ahead of myself or ahead of the President, but make no mistake about it, that’s the direction of travel,” Secretary Pompeo said in an interview with Brian Sullivan of CNBC in Houston, when asked if it was possible to bring down Iran’s oil exports to zero. Bringing down Iranian barrels to zero could be done this year without compromising global oil supply, four U.S. officials told Bloomberg last week. The State Department Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, told CNBC last week that projections for supply outstripping demand could provide more wiggle room to the U.S. to tighten the screws on Iran, but noted that “We don’t preview exemptions or nonexemptions.” OPEC—excluding Iran and Venezuela—currently has around 2.8 million bpd of effective spare production capacity due to the ongoing cuts, so “the potential means of avoiding serious disruption to the oil market is theoretically at hand,” in the event of serious losses from Venezuela, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. However, if a serious loss from Venezuela were to coincide with ‘waiver-for-no-one’ regarding Iran, oil prices could shoot up again as they did in the run-up to the sanctions on Tehran when U.S. officials were promising ‘zero’ Iranian oil exports. So the U.S. Administration may want to prevent a spike in prices, which, incidentally, may largely depend on where oil prices are at end-April early-May.
  2. Perfect Storm” Drives Oil Prices Higher Mar 18, 2019, 7:00 PM CDT Join Our Community Oil prices have already hit four-month highs, forcing a range of analysts to overhaul their expectations for this year. “The latest Brent rally has brought prices to our peak forecast of $67.5/bbl, three months early,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank said that “resilient demand growth” and supply outages could push prices up to $70 per barrel in the near future. It’s a perfect storm: “supply loses are exceeding our expectations, demand growth is beating low consensus expectations with technicals supportive and net long positioning still depressed,” the bank said. The outages in Venezuela could swamp the rebound in supply from Libya, Goldman noted. But the real surprise has been demand. At the end of 2018 and the start of this year, oil prices hit a bottom and concerns about global economic stability dominated the narrative. But, for now at least, demand has been solid. In January, demand grew by 1.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. “Gasoline in particular is surprising to the upside, helped by low prices, confirming our view that the weakness in cracks at the turn of the year was supply driven,” Goldman noted. “This comforts us in our above consensus 1.45 mb/d [year-on-year] demand growth forecast.” Demand in China is growing at a stronger rate than expected, while other emerging markets are set to shake off a rough 2018 that saw a strong dollar, rising interest rates and high oil prices. Meanwhile, other analysts are also similarly bullish. “As risky assets focused on macro concerns, oil markets have largely overlooked supply-side tightness in 1Q19 that has helped global oil markets to rebalance since the end of 2018,” JPMorgan Chase said in a report. “With a potential for a US-China trade talk resolution emerging, oil prices should finally break out of the narrow trading range and should be supported in the very near-term due to policy-driven supply-side tightness.” Related: LNG Sector Dangerously Dependent On Chinese Demand A supply deficit could become rather significant, the bank said, with total oil products demand growth at 1.03 mb/d against supply growth of only 0.3mbd. The second quarter is particularly tight. “As OPEC+ cuts begin to bite and non-OPEC supply tightens in 1H19, due to Canadian curtailments, a temporary US production growth slowdown, and maintenance in some of the key global oil fields (Kashagan particularly), we expect 2Q19 to have a theoretical tightness of over 1.2mbd in global balances.” A supply deficit of 1.2 mb/d is rather notable given the roughly 1.5 mb/d surplus in the fourth quarter of last year, the bank said. Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see the supply deficit fading in the second half of the year unless OPEC+ continues to over-comply with the production cuts. U.S. shale could rebound from the current lull, while the fate of OPEC+ compliance is up in the air. “Hence, we think OPEC+ cuts will need to be extended not just to the end of 2019 but also into 2020 if they want to avoid another oil price crash,” JPMorgan wrote. Related: Pakistan Aims To Become A Natural Gas Hotspot Of course, there is no shortage of uncertainty to these – or any other – price scenarios. In particular, the Trump administration will have a lot of influence over what unfolds this year in the oil market. Trump has helped exacerbate the crisis in Venezuela, where the output declines had somewhat stabilized late last year. Venezuela’s production fell by 142,000 bpd in February, while the losses this month have the potential to be even worse. The U.S. is also weighing the expiration of sanctions waivers on Iran, and the tight oil market could force Trump to extend some of them. The Department of Energy could also release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, while the U.S. Congress is working on NOPEC legislation, which could threaten OPEC coordination. Moreover, it is unclear how OPEC+ might respond to any of those actions. For instance, Saudi Arabia could ramp up supply to crash prices in response to NOPEC being signed into law. Or, they could continue to over-comply with production cuts after making the mistake of abandoning them too early last year. The permutations are endless, so take each price forecast with a grain of salt.
  3. Pence, Iraqi PM talk over phone regarding security, economy issues WASHINGTON, March 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Monday talked with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi over phone regarding security and economic issues. According to a statement issued by the White House, Pence and Abdul Mahdi "discussed opportunities to advance the strategic partnership between the U.S. and Iraq, including continuing to work together to strengthen and professionalize Iraq's Security Forces and grow Iraq's economy." Pence "welcomed news of Iraq's recent economic and trade agreements with Jordan and the Prime Minister's upcoming travel as major steps towards Iraq's reintegration in the region after the territorial defeat of ISIS," the statement read, referring to the Islamic State (IS). For his part, Abdul Mahdi updated Pence on the Iraqi government's efforts "to exhume the mass graves of ISIS's genocide against Yazidis in Sinjar" and added that "he would personally investigate security and economic impediments" noted by Pence as preventing the return of many of Iraq's religious components and other displaced persons. The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) said last week that a UN team tasked with investigation in crimes committed by the IS group will assist the Iraqi authorities in exhuming mass graves in Iraq's northern province of Nineveh, where the IS has killed hundreds of Yazidis in 2014. Yazidis are a group of people indigenous to northern Iraq. Some of them identify themselves as ethnic Kurds, but most of them identify themselves as a distinct ethno-religious group. Hundreds of local Yazidi villagers were reportedly murdered by the IS fighters in August, 2014, while more than 700 women and children were abducted.
  4. Uhm, I believe you are responsible for your country’s problems Rouhani. I think the curses will be aimed at you by most Iranians.
  5. Iran's Rouhani urges Iranians to 'put all your curses' on US, Israel, KSA FacebookTwitterGoogle+EmailWhatsApp Iran's president on Monday urged Iranians to put a curse on the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia, reiterating his long-standing charge that the U.S. and its allies are responsible for the country's ailing economy, AP reported on Monday. President Hassan Rouhani's remarks were meant to deflect criticism of his administration's performance amid a spiraling economy after President Donald Trump last year pulled America out of the nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran, targeting Iran's vital oil sector. "Put all your curses on those who created the current situation," Rouhani urged Iranians, adding that "the United States, the Zionists" and Saudi Arabia were to blame. He didn't say what kind of curses the Iranians should invoke. The U.S. plan, Rouhani claimed, was to "dominate" the Iranian nation, something Washington will not achieve. On Sunday, the same day he inaugurated a new phase in the development of a massive natural gas field, Rouhani said Iran's inflation is "above 20 percent" and that this country of 80 million people has more than 3 million unemployed. He promised to increase wages in both the government and the private sector, and raise pensions. The crisis that is gripping Iran has hurt ordinaryIranians and emboldened Rouhani's critics to openly call for his ouster. Rouhani, who first came to power in 2013, was re-elected for a second term in 2017, promising to improve the economy and foster more open relations with the world.
  6. Asadi, Yassiri compete over Interior Ministry post: Looking forward to ending the dispute around the Interior Ministry post in Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi's government, Abd al-Ghani al-Asadi and Yassin al-Yassiri are competing for the post, according to a source in the Fatah Alliance, a main party in the negotiations held to complete the formation of the government. As for the defense minister post, the source revealed that the political blocs have settled on Salah al-Hariri, a military officer. "The political blocs reached a semi-final agreement by consensus on the nomination of candidates for defense and the interior," the source said, asserting that the final settlement on a candidate for each of the two ministries will take place next week during the parliamentary sessions. The source said that Yassiri and Asadi, both high-rank military officers, have been nominated by the political blocs so far, asserting that the former is the most likely to take the post. Abd al-Mahdi has worked on completing the formation of his government since he took his post last October. On October 24, Abd al-Mahdi managed to get the parliamentary approval on 14 out of 22 ministries. However, disagreements between political blocs, especially on the security ministries, have thwarted Abd al-Mahdi's efforts to complete the cabinet in a short time.
  7. Hahahahahaha. I’m not bitting.
  8. Look at the pic Trying to keep it clean
  9. Thanks Thug you just reminded me it’s that time of the month
  10. Thank you for the plus and I will return the favor
  11. Did you read my last post on this thread Its only human nature. No politics need be involved. If you assault someone, you better be ready to defend yourself. If you hit me I’m not going to say, thank you!!
  12. Iraqis to hold conference in US to rid country of Iranian influence Iraqis in the United States announced holding a conference named "united to save Iraq" on March 29 in Washington, DC, to save Iraq from the danger Iran poses, including Tehran-backed agents and armed militias in Iraq. In an interview with The Baghdad Post, Hassan al-Jameeli, one of the organizers of the conference, said that the goal is to unite the Iraqi people, end the Iranian incursion inside the Iraqi state and, and restore Iraq's place as part of the Arab countries. Omar al-Hadithi, another organizer, said that the Iraqi people will understand the message and will work to unite all the Iraqi national forces and patriots. Moreover, Hussein al-Janabi, an Iraqi official, who is also a member of Amnesty International, told the Baghdad Post that the conference aims to liberate Iraq from Iranian agents, and to rid the people of Iraq of the Iran-backed militias. He said that the conference also aims to support the return of Iraqi competent citizens who have left Iraq for different areas around the world, in order for them to help building the country and serve their people. He also affirmed the need to rely on technocrats in a real sense. The Baghdad Post received a copy of the statement of the conference's preparatory committee, including the objectives of the conference: From Washington, D.C., in the United States of America, and from your brothers and children in the preparatory committee for the conference of the Iraqi national forces, under the title: "United to Save Iraq." We announce to you a summary of the objectives of the Conference: First: Gathering and unifying the Iraqi national forces and all the Iraqi patriots, who believe in belonging to their country, regardless their sects, orientations and parties. Second: To work on liberating Iraq and saving it from the Iranian incursion in all political, economic and military fields of Iraq which aims to destroy the country and enslave its people. The conference also tackles the expulsion of the traitors and agents loyal to the Iranian regime. Third: Working to amend the Constitution to suit the situation of the country, maintain the unity of Iraqi people and preserve their rights. Fourth: To build relations with world states, in a way that serves Iraq and its common interests with the countries that support the Iraqi national forces, to achieve its just and worthy goals. These states should also cooperate with Iraq to rebuild its state institutions on right basis. Fifth: Supporting factors that would lead to the return of the Iraqi competent citizens abroad to serve their country and people.
  13. If you are willing to assault someone you should expect some repucusdiins, a fight or an arrest, or both.
  14. I don’t think a right leaning kid would do that umbertino yes I would make the same remark
  15. Stupid behavior, that kid is lucky he isn’t in the hospital.
  16. Lot of oldies but goodies Karsten. Good stuff
  17. No one likes Trump’s bragging and patting himself on the back but I understand why all Presidents do it, including President Obama. Many times the good policies a President has success with receive little attention or fanfare. In a political climate that appears to have need to fire up their base a little cheerleading should be expected. Let’s face the fact that this president has had to endure a media that is 90% hostile to his every move and slant every story in a negative light, especially the agenda driven Russian Collusion storyline. We are a divided country politically speaking and both sides are doing what they think they need to win, even if it is to the lowest levels of the human character. I have to remind myself ALL the time NOT to turn disagreement into anger and hate.
  18. Thanks Shegdagal, pp, and others for your thoughts. I have been planning and talking to people for years about this investment and it’s kind of like trying to hit a moving target. We just don’t know when it will happen, how it will be taxed, will it be a good strategy to turn it all in at once ( we nay have to) or as needed. Just a whole lot of questions. If and when it goes I plan on turning in some to get some cash flowing and take a retreat and figure out all the ramifications.
  19. Umbertino, Thank you for your decent and eloquent post. I have no problems with Shabbs speaking his mind. We have debated numerous times which I prefer to the childish cartoons. I guess it’s just quicker and easier to show your dislike of someone, especially President Trump, by showing a cartoon. While that may seem amusing to the Liberal mindset I believe it is a continued attack on the President of the USA. I never once wrote or put a cartoon of President Obama on these boards even though I disliked many of his policies. I feel the continued bashing of our President is pathetic and Demeaning to the Office. If an effigy of President Obama receives a hate crime then the constant parodies of President Trump should get the same treatment. I would much rather debate Russian Collusion, Border Security, Medicare for all, or even Tax Breaks. Instead we get name calling, childish cartoons, and articles that are written in half truths to meet an agenda. Just because it is published in the Guardian or the Washington Post doesn’t mean it’s truthful or honest. I also believe Shabbs is a big boy and can defend himself without your interjection. We were just messing with each other like we do on many occasions. I personally do not dislike Shabbs or any of you liberal mindset people. Like I said earlier I would much rather debate the issue than read the slanted liberal articles or view cartoons. ( which aren’t funny). I am well read and I read both sides of an issue from which I can form my own opinion. Now if you feel the need to defend someone you can jump in and defend my rights any time you want. I have on many occasions had people respond to my posts in rude, condescending, flippant, and in an angry hateful manner. While we can all agree to disagree I would prefer doing it with intellectual honesty or a small amount of respect. It is tough though when you get rubbish thrown in your face for your point of view, or read posts that demean our Country and show so little respect for an elected President!! Have a a nice weekend Umberino.
  20. I guess we go all night. Get it all out of your system. What else you got. Save time and put them all in one post. I have more important things to do. Again seek help
  21. When A person who was consumed with hatred did an effigy of Obama he was slapped with a hate crime. Seek help or get back on your meds
  22. I just want to say one more thing to you Shabbs. Get some help, your heart is full of hate.
  23. Not questioning who is more kooky. Responding to your post that AOC is the only one spewing Socialist policies. Did you hear Beto called himself “Psychedelic Warloard”. Hahahahaha.
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