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By Adam Montana
Good afternoon DinarVets, and welcome to the weekly!
I love days like today, where I can just hop right into the MEAT.
As much as we all hate "I told you so's", here are a couple. Headlines from the past couple days include:
1. BREXIT. When this was first brought up in 2016, I voiced my opinion that it wouldn't be successful and not to worry about it. As of this morning, it looks like the whole thing was a huge waste of time and is going nowhere... time will tell, but I could have told you that as well.
2. Did you catch my update last week? One of my talking points was oil, the price per barrel, and Iraq's sneaky but convenient exception to the ongoing limitations on production by OPEC members. Just look at these headlines...
"Could Oil Prices Rise By $25 Per Barrel In 2019?"
"Kuwait National: $ 65 Brent crude average during 2019 and 2020 "
" Oil Markets Could See Deficit In 2019 The oil supply surplus is “starting to reverse,” according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch."
(the word "deficit" is a good thing here )
"Heavy Crude: From Glut To Shortage
- Jan 15, 2019, 5:00 PM CST"
("Shortage" is another good word for us right now)
" Oil rises with hopes of a better market under OPEC-led cuts "
... and so on.
Here's the thing, folks... this is the situation that Iraq wants. This writing is on the wall, in the headlines, and it's heading towards RV time.
Iraq can read the headlines just as well as we can, so for now we just hang on tight.
Oil is at $52.18 right now, and for scientific discussion purposes, I have painstakingly explained below what I'd like to see happen in this market:
What more can I say at this point? 2019 is cruising along nicely for us, and as long as you're in VIP with me... you're ready just like me and a boatload of other DV members!
Here's the weekly Q's:
Possibly. Our VIP options in Mexico seem to change on a daily basis, and I keep an updated database of what is safe, reliable, and viable. If I say "yes" today, it could be "no" next week, so I won't give a commitment on that question until the time is here.
In a roundabout way it does, because global events always have some impact.... so, yes. But it doesn't merit any concern for us at this time.
I am midway through writing a post on exactly that topic. I'll wrap it up soon and send out an email.
For now, my simple answer - I don't think it's likely that they will take the first approach. More on that later.
That'll do it for now! Hang on tight everyone, when the nuts and bolts of my picture above come into play, it looks like we're ready for blast off.
By Adam Montana
Good afternoon everyone!
We’re off and running into the new year, and I’ll repeat a bit of what I said last week… I’m still pretty solid about 2019.
In fact, I like it a lot.
Not this week in particular, but in general - I think we've got a solid chance to see some 💥💥
Read on... I've been keeping an eye on the situation for a few months now, waiting to see the trend I'm seeing right now.
Waiting for all the pieces to come together.
And I finally feel like it's time to voice the following thoughts.
This morning I stopped for fuel and my total bill, with a big bottle of Fiji water and a loaf of bread, was
a whopping $50. I actually asked the clerk to double check my pump number... FIFTY dollars? I know my
Fiji water didn't go down in price, and I didn't stop the pump early!
The lady laughed and informed me the price per gallon is currently around $2, which is ten cents higher
than it was last week.
We may all enjoy a lower pump price, but I guarantee you the Middle East and all our Texas oil boys don't
necessarily like them! That's exactly why OPEC entered into a production limit agreement in the not-so-distant
past... because supply and demand drives price.
Oil is on sale right now, due to a very high supply, and I don't think we'll see an RV while the sale is on. It's
simply not in the CBI's best interest to do so.
The good and bad news is this - there are actions being taken to get the price of oil back up. Check out this page:
Now, think about this little tidbit... you may have noticed at the very top of that page that Iraq has "confirmed their
commitment to participating" in the oil productions cuts. But, as a savvy reader who remembers the details, you
also know that Iraq was not specifically included in the original OPEC agreement.
Iraq is essentially standing on the sidelines, voicing support, encouraging the action... but reserving the right to
step back from it and swoop in on some profits once they are there again, while everyone else frantically
tries to organize a vote to release themselves from their self-imposed restrictions. At that point in time, Iraq will
have all the time they need to successfully execute a couple days or even weeks of trading, exchanging currency
with higher values and reaping profits on said exchanges, and everyone wins.
Yes, EVERYONE wins.
Even the OPEC members that may have seemingly "lost" some revenue with their limited production agreement.
The truth of that matter is that none of them are in the dark about the potential for Iraq to revalue. They all sit there,
innocently and conveniently silent about Iraq's exclusion from the agreement.
Coincidence? I think not. In fact, this is the KEY.
It's staring the world in the face, and only a small group of us are even paying attention.
I'm ok with that.
HCL is still a pivotal issue, but there's no point in finalizing the HCL until oil prices go back up.
More good news - Iraq is in a very good position to implement HCL, so once we see this graph going up again... game on!
While we wait, be sure to get in the Weekly Powerball Pool!
**** Follow up on a post from last week: If $60 is considered "Red Zone", I'd call that the 20 yard line. $70+ is the
5 yard line. If you're picking up what I'm putting down here, both of those are one play away from a touchdown.
By Adam Montana
Happy Wednesday and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
I hope everyone’s holiday season was remarkable and amazing, and now we’re launching into 2019.
What should we expect? That’s always the question, and I think this year is going to prove different than the last. I have a few reasons that I’ll be outlining in short order, but as always I will not be handing out rumor based opinions or making predictions. Iraq is going to do what Iraq wants to do, when they want to do it.
So, here’s to an exciting 2019!
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the tail end of 2018 didn’t bring us an RV. Iraq operates on a global scale, so things that happen around the world do have an influence on them. 2018 was the worst year in the stock market since 2008. More importantly, US crude posted it’s first loss since 2015. Those are not specifically Iraq’s losses, of course, but lower oil prices affect ALL oil markets.
Case in point:
Combine that with a general lack of news regarding the HCL and we have an obvious situation where they would not pull the trigger. We'd all like to think that Iraq can pull off an RV with lower oil prices, but the current market needs to change for Iraq and everyone else to be confident.
It will happen, of course. But this doesn't look like the week for it.
Not that I'm discouraged at all! The current market is a temporary thing. Nothing negative has happened to scare us from the future of this venture. And I don't think anything has changed to make Iraq no longer want to regain their former position of power and influence.
It will happen. The question is only "when"?
A bullet point list is a good idea. I'll put that on my list.
If anyone else wants to contribute while I'm getting mine together - feel free! That's one of the best parts of this community.
I haven't seen anything specific - have you?
The President being friendly with Iraq certainly isn't a bad thing!
1. I don't have my translator, so I'm not sure. (Google translate shows me it's the "cancelation of uncles" )
3. When is it not!?
Cheers, @peace1221! Same here
Any real chance - absolutely! But I think it will be delayed until there is a solid swing in the oil market.
My New Year was amazing, thank you my friend! I hope yours was as well
Blockchain should continue to strengthen in use and acceptance. It should follow suit that prices will rise accordingly.
Fingers crossed there, because it sure would be nice to get back into making good money on cryptos!
Ahh, buddy, I don't think we're seeing anything to worry about.
A change from 1166 to 1190 is miniscule and barely worth noting. Many of your other points are actually positive!
I think we are going in a good direction.
That's all for me at the moment, everyone!
May 2019 bring us all love, luck, and good fortune.
Oh! Don't forget the powerball pool!
By Adam Montana
Gooooood morning all!
As we creep up on the Christmas holiday and New Years, I want to take a quick second to wish you all a MERRY CHRISTMAS (or whatever you celebrate!), and also a Happy New Year!
You'll be hearing from me a couple times between now and 2019, and I'm excited for the new year to roll in!
At the moment there is a distinct lack of news regarding HCL. I believe there is a good reason for this - and it's good for our 2019 outlook. Many many things are being taken care of, stamped, passed, and resolved right now. Things that are essential for forward progress.
But, the fact remains... that pesky and elusive HCL is simply not on the table right now.
As soon as we see word about it, then we can get excited! For now... patience is a virtue, and we have plenty.
Don't get me wrong here! They aren't sleeping on the job - check out this thread that started back in 2017, and seems to be gaining steam:
Next, a quick announcement before I get to the Weekly Q's: There will be an opportunity to save some money on VIP before Christmas. Use it to give the gift of VIP to a loved one or for yourself! I'll send out information later this week. It will be a limited offering, so don't delay when it hits your inbox!
Fingers crossed for some HCL news soon, but in the meantime... lots of love for you all, and be sure to hug your loved ones.
This wikipedia page should help you there.
Iraq has long been a sovereign nation, but they lost some freedoms in 2003 with the overthrow of Saddam. Their currency plummeted in value, they had to travel a very long road to get where they are today.
Chapter 7 was lifted in 2013, which marked a major milestone for them regaining their position in the world. Since then, they have established a very balanced and stable government and worked their way to the point we are currently at - in position to implement the new Hydro Carbon Law, which will likely trigger a change in the value their currency is traded at.
Good stuff, right?!
I think the main difference would be the players involved - Chapter 7 was an outside decision. They were at the mercy of the UN(etc) on that one.
HCL is not that way - this is an internal decision. The HCL is done when Iraq says it is done, and no outside influences can stop them.
Appreciate the praise on your service here! We work hard to provide 5 star quality and it's nice to hear it when we hit that mark. Lord knows you can't make everyone happy, but we sure do try.
GOI formation is proceeding very good IMO. Everyone should keep in mind that Iraq will never have a fully seated government with absolutely 0 contested seats. We are talking about a society that operates very different than anywhere outside the Middle East.
80% good is about as good as it will ever get, and we are pretty much there.
Check out the last page of this thread (currently page 40):
I'll take it!!!!
That's it for this post. Be sure to get in our weekly Powerball Pool!
Merry Christmas, Happy whatever else you may celebrate, and of course, GOOO RRRVVVVVV!!!!
By Adam Montana
I know, I know... I completely missed my deadline. Lots of them, actually. Just assume I'm in training to be the next PM for Iraq
Sorry to leave you all hanging, and happy to report that I am indeed still alive.
Thursday is the new Wednesday
Holding pattern on HCL. This is going to break soon. I'm watching it like a hawk and can't WAIT for this to turn!
It is going to be in our favor. I'm betting big on this. YMMV
Not interested in taking the heat of that job, noooooooo sir! But I am very interested in watching things shake out from here!
Probably a couple years before the Pack is a Superbowl team again, and hopefully we still have #12 by then, but... time will tell.
Also see above. We are getting close.
That's all I'm going to leave here for now... more on the way, but until we get some breaking news, I won't be promising any deadlines.
Stay grounded, friends!