Popular Post Adam Montana Posted April 23, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 I know, I know... TWO "weekly" posts this week! Yesterday I touched on some issues, and opened it up for discussion. The feedback was extraordinary, as always! This topic is also open for feedback, so post away... but let's go over some things first. ===== /// brief interlude /// ===== Before we get going on this Update, I'm inserting a special LIMITED VIP discount. You'll see why this is a great time to use it later in the update! Use discount code "shakeup" for a sweet 29% off any of the VIP memberships here. VIP members - keep an eye out for a VIP email soon. ===== /// we now return you to the Update: /// ===== OIL rocked our world over the last 7 days... as mentioned (and continuing here), there was an unprecedented (never happened before) situation where WTI (OIL) went to $0, then negative. This has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. EVER. I even posted in a recent update that "oil will never be free", and the markets proved me wrong... because for a short window, negative prices means OIL was even better than free! Not that we could ever get paid to fill up our tanks, but I can admit when I am wrong. The markets have since began "correcting", with reverse splits and giants like USO completely changing their M.O. - on that note, I'd caution against buying OIL "stocks", on the assumption that the price "must" go up. Derivatives and futures are tricky and don't necessarily follow the normal rules, kind of like fiat currency that has a "value". I'll stop there before I get too deep in that rabbit hole, because there is more to discuss in this topic. On to Iraq. Today is the general start of Ramadan. In years past, I have always maintained the opinion that "nothing happens during Ramadan". I also stated that "oil will never be free", and I was wrong about that! I'm not going to say "two wrongs make a right", but this is a unique situation. The most unique, ever, in the history of the world, in fact. We are witnessing a financial shakeup never before seen, and barely even imagined. What is happening right now is so off-the-charts unexpected that I'm going to retract my former opinion... maybe something will get done during Ramadan! This from just yesterday (thanks @yota691!): To me, that actually seems realistic. Achievable. And it's a number they can work with! An interesting point regarding the oil and the value of IQD is this: the price per barrel is not nearly as important, for the value of their currency, as the amount they have in the ground. Also, it's not just "oil" that counts here - natural gas is important as well. Iraq has plenty, and until the world stops using OIL, Iraq will have a rightful place at the table. @Mary B and @Pitcher bring us these confirmations that Kazemi-KAZAMMI is working, moving things along: Add to that a landslide of news from earlier this week: More thanks to @DinarThug for this one... the Iraqi Stock Exchange had a short pause, but they are obviously back at it. Neither Ramadan nor 'Rona is stopping this train! Overall? This is nothing short of incredible, that the price of OIL can drop to negative and the world basically shuts down, yet the IQD Train keeps on chugging. And right now, right here at this very minute, we are smack dab in the middle of a shakeup in the markets, in the economy, in the world... that is going to change our lives forever. This is like 9/11 in the fact that our world will NEVER be the same after this. And that's why the discount code on VIP is "shakeup". I'm going to lock yesterday's thread, and encourage you all to continue the conversation here. Read below for my responses to some of the questions and comments that were posted yesterday. Go Iraq, and GOOO RRRVVVV!!!! - Adam ----- From yesterday's Weekly: 21 hours ago, Shedagal said: In the past you have been pretty certain there would be no RV during Ramadan. Still feel that way? I'm inclined to break tradition here. This Ramadan is different, and I'm leaving the door wide open. 21 hours ago, kgreen said: Thank you, Adam. Wednesday's are always my favorite day because of your updates! I have one question for you; Couldn't Iraq increase the currency/value as a nation by completing an RV despite the plummeting oil prices which accounts for most of the value? This would have a positive impact on their global standing, value for their people and provide capital to keep the government functioning. In a word: YES. The price per barrel of oil is a temporary situation. Iraq holding one of the largest physical stores of oil is not temporary. They are already talking about setting their budget on an amount much higher than current market. This situation with the price of oil will be remembered, but it will not last. 21 hours ago, ChuckFinley said: Adam, it would seem that Iraq is between a rock and a hard place. Oil down and Iraq once again has it hand out to the IMF and WB. This time the IMF and WB are pushing back. Add this the trying to seat a new Government which could result in Parliament being disbanded , no budget, and salaries have to be paid. Not pushing the Hopium but one would think increasing purchasing power would be obvious. What options does Iraq have left? YES! And they were told they would get no more than 2 billion dollars... that is nothing. We aren't the only ones who know that Iraq has the potential to solve their own problems. Time to GET IT DONE! 21 hours ago, NeedRv said: Looks like OIL is the commodity to buy right now... cant go anywhere but UP... Be careful with that... when you buy "oil stocks", you aren't necessarily buying the actual oil. You can still lose money on oil stocks, even though you are correct that the price will go back up. 20 hours ago, boosterbglee said: Thanks Adam! Essentially what will this do to the Petro Dollar? THAT is a multi-kajillion dollar question! @coorslite21 made a good comment on it here. 20 hours ago, NWGUY said: Thanks Adam for all you do here. Do you think that they will be able to RV while they are still trying to form their new government? I know CBI has a big say in the process, but I was under the impression that the government had to be in place also. Just looking for a little more insight from a knowledgeable person!! Again thanks Adam!! It is not necessary to have it 100% completed. Looking at the progress by KAZAMMI I posted above, I think we are in the strike zone very shortly! 20 hours ago, Mr. G said: I commented last year or a few years ago, when oil was really low. I can’t remember how long ago. That, It only makes sense to RV while oil was super low. I can assure you, I’m not smart enough on this subject to make sense of why I feel this way, much less make an argument for it. But, I’m going to try. If your country’s worth is mostly based on one commodity, (oil), and you want (need) to raise/return your currency to its proud glorious value it once held, ($2-$3+-), you should RV your currency while oil is low. Then you could RV at somewhere between, $.10-$1.13. Still being undervalued. This would cause the majority of the people to cash in their holdings. Then as oil increased, raise the value from there. The world/the economy/ourselves would get the huge gain and Iraq would be unharmed. Actually, They would benefit tremendously, because they would have the majority of their money back in hand as the value slowly returned to its original value of $3+-, Along with the price of oil. When I mentioned this before, @Adam, you didn’t agree. I would like your take on the idea, now. What are your thoughts? Thank you 🙏 Great post @Mr. G I agree with a lot of it. I'll clarify my position here: The price of OIL is a factor, not the factor. If Iraq were to suddenly run out of reserves, we would be having a different conversation. That's not the case, so bring on the RV! 18 hours ago, Smokey Mtn. Dinar said: If it was to RV at .10 - 1.13 and we wait to cash in, until it goes up more, would we be able to keep it that long, and cash in at a higher rate? Or are we going to have a time limit to cash in? Thank you Adam for all the great news. That's a great question, and one nobody will be able to answer. It will depend entirely on what the CBI dictates, and they can do anything they want. 18 hours ago, olivesman said: I'm thinking Ramadan would be THE time to catch the world off guard! THIS IS A CRAZY TIME! In years past, I've always said "no" to that idea. I am NOT saying "no" this time! 17 hours ago, Happy Man said: Hi Adam, I posted a comment last weeks about comparing the political situation of Iraq with the one In Liban some 30 years ago. Do you think that oil is the only thing that can prevent the same thing happening to Iraq that happened in Liban. At the time what broke up Liban is the power struggle between religious factions even if they were able to live together and share powers for many years Sorry Happy Man! I don't think I saw your comment - can you repost it here in this thread? I'll keep an eye out for it. ======= GOOO RRRRVVVVVV!!!!!!! 4 15 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NevadaSam Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Lost track of time and days, didn't see yesterday's post till today, it was a good one and with today's post, all I have to say is Thanks Adam and I am sure that everyone in DinarVetland hopes things get back to "normal". I don't doubt that we have the coronavirus going around, but I do believe that it is being blown out of proportion. (just my opinion) Adam and everyone, take care of yourself. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Just for you sweetheart. Watch "Sgt Schultz I Know Nothing" on YouTube 1 3 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post KristiD Posted April 23, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Here's the thing, none of us knows the future, we are all just trying to make our best guess as to what, based on what we have learned, we think is likely to happen. I follow Breitling's lead and try only to look at facts from reputable sources and then apply logic to them as to what makes the most sense. For sure the Middle East has a different culture that I, as an American, don't really understand. But I have to think that, in these seriously dangerous times, they know they're in real trouble and need to come up with the best possible plan to get out of trouble.... not just to protect their own arses, but to save their country in which they work and live, from economic collapse. What they do now is super critical and they must know that they can't afford mistakes. 21 hours ago, kgreen said: eburt, that is the opposite assumption to my question so I am looking forward to Adam's response. I can completely take your position of their economy being based on oil commodity and therefore have a huge negative impact on their valuation. I guess I am looking for some silver lining and the hopes they need to react to a decreased revenue source (oil) but still need to keep their government operating and food for their people. 21 hours ago, Mr. G said: I commented last year or a few years ago, when oil was really low. I can’t remember how long ago. That, It only makes sense to RV while oil was super low. I can assure you, I’m not smart enough on this subject to make sense of why I feel this way, much less make an argument for it. But, I’m going to try. If your country’s worth is mostly based on one commodity, (oil), and you want (need) to raise/return your currency to its proud glorious value it once held, ($2-$3+-), you should RV your currency while oil is low. Then you could RV at somewhere between, $.10-$1.13. Still being undervalued. This would cause the majority of the people to cash in their holdings. Then as oil increased, raise the value from there. The world/the economy/ourselves would get the huge gain and Iraq would be unharmed. Actually, They would benefit tremendously, because they would have the majority of their money back in hand as the value slowly returned to its original value of $3+-, Along with the price of oil. When I mentioned this before, @Adam, you didn’t agree. I would like your take on the idea, now. What are your thoughts? Thank you 🙏 57 minutes ago, Engine1 said: A while back in these post someone stated that if the oil could stay steady around 50 bucks or so per barrel that would be a perfect time to RV. Now the oil has hit an all time low according to some it's a great time to RV. I have been reading these post for many years and it seems to me that everytime something goes on around the world or in Iraq people can twist it to their liking and its RV time again. Every year around Ramadan oooo it's a perfect time to RV. I would love to see this RV but I refuse to read into any news source and twist it to make me feel good. I just wont read into things. When or if it does happen I am sure we will know, but reading into things and deciphering the news to our own liking wont move it along any faster. I know I am pissin on your dreams ( mine too ) been in this since may/june 2005. kgreen, Mr. G and Engine1, I think it helps to remember that the dinar's current rate is an arbitrary amount - deliberately chosen to be way under the real market value. It is not, and has not been, a reflection of true value since at least 2003 (or whatever it was that the CBI took it down to 1/20 of a penny). High or low oil prices do not, and will not, have an impact on its rate until the CBI stops using the auctions to artificially maintain the low rate that they have chosen. It's true that lower oil prices give Iraq less wealth. Instead of bringing in $50 a barrel, now they're bringing in $20. And I think long term, oil prices will likely settle between $25 to $50. I say this because electric and hybrid cars are becoming more and more popular, the US is now the major oil producer taking a dent of the rest of the world's oil producers' market share, and the coronavirus has changed everything. Many business will fail, many countries will pull out of China and start manufacturing at home - just like Trump and Japan. The travel industry may not come back to the level it was at pre coronavirus. All these things will decrease the demand for oil, bringing down oil prices. Iraq has talked about reducing their dependency on oil for years, now they will be forced to do that - and quickly. Fortunately, Iraq has many other resources, natural gas, fresh water (a huge deal in the Mid East and great for hydropower and agriculture), minerals, rare earth elements, and personally I think a lot more gold that the world knows about. They have a very bright future because of all these resources - I think much better than most or at least many Mid East Countries. But it takes time to build and grow new industries to profitability. And in the meantime, Iraq doesn't have enough oil money to run their country. I believe Iraq has said they need $56-58 a barrel to cover expenses, so they're in the hole $25+ on every barrel they sell. This is a HUGE deficit. They have to do something to stay afloat while they work to establish other industries. The one really important thing Iraq has that no other Mid East country has, is that their currency is severely undervalued (because they did that deliberately so they could rebuild their infrastructure on the cheap). I personally don't think the free market could sustain a $3 value right now because of low oil prices, an unstable government and the coronavirus (though I think $3+ is absolutely possible in the future). But I am very confident they could sustain $.10 at least. Breitling has said for the last couple of years that he believes they need and can sustain $.50+. So the CBI can bump the price to $.10-.50+, maintaining that price through the auctions with some/limited free market participation, and then, according their plan, allow more free market participation in the auctions to slowly raise the rate until it reaches the true market value (hopefully $3+ some day, like it was for all those decades before). Alternately, they can let the free market slowly start to participate in the auctions now at the current artifically low price ( less than 1/10 of a penny) and allow gradually more market participation to slowly increase its value until it reaches the true market rate. To me it makes sense for Iraq to do the former, start at $.10+, and probably closer to, or more than, $.50. Because by doing that, Iraq has instantly increased the value of all the dinar it's holding - in reserves and anywhere else, by over 500 times. If they only come in at $.10, they only increase that value 100 times. I really don't know how high Iraq thinks they can bump the rate without causing a panic in the market. I think $1 or more is a real possiblity, but I think $3 is too high at this point in time with the world reeling as it is. $.50 gives them over 500 times more of a cushion to tide them over while they begin to diversify their economy by starting up new business in various other industries. $1 would give them 1000 times more of a cushion. My guess, and I'm no expert, is that it's most likely to be between $.50 and less than $1.50, but I'm prepared for $.10..... because none of us knows the future. All of this is why some of us think that these desperate times will push Iraq to RV sooner rather than later. They are in a real pickle right now. But fortunately, as best as we can tell by studying the news, it looks like they've been working especially hard in the past year and half to get ready to RV. They've told us for years and years that they want to get to a dollar, and also to $3. And we've all been talking for over a year about how Iraq is really buckling down and getting things done for a change. So if they were working hard to get ready to RV before the protests, low oil prices and the coronavirus, and since doing the RV will really pull them out of the fire, I think it makes sense that the RV is imminent. Iraq is begging for loans, telling its creditors it can't pay, trying anything they can to stop from bleeding money. But the one thing they can do that no other country is in the position to do, is simply stop using the auctions to keep the dinar value so low. It's not helping them anymore now, but letting it have a higher value will save them. I have to think they realize that too and will therefore RV soon. But, like I said, none of us knows the future. We can only do our best to make sense of the facts. This is the best sense I can make out of them. But whether you agree or not, it's important to remember that the current rate of the dinar is being deliberately maintained waaaaaaay below it's true value. It's current rate is not being supported by the market.... it's being supported by the CBI who has consciously decided it is in Iraq's best interests to have seriously undervalued currency. But these days, that is no longer true, and that undervalued currency isn't helping them now because they're not rebuilding their infrastruction these days. Instead, they're just trying to survive the coronavirus, establish a new government and cope with the catastrophic drop in income from oil sales. Their best and easiest option that I can see is for them to RV, and at as high a rate as they they think they can maintain, because every dime of the new rate gives them over 100 times more purchasing power/value for every dinar they have. 3 9 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeC Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks Adam and all the other commenters. Reading every word of every comment, and I've learned a lot. There are some really smart and thoughtful people in this group, and I appreciate each one of you. Thanks again! 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Edited by LGD 1 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coorslite21 Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 And of course the oil price....so Trump tweets if those Iranian pleasure boats with guns mounted to the front deck harass Navy Ships......he's instructed the Navy to blow them out of the water....."suddenly" the price of oil goes up.......Iran responds by saying they will destroy the US Navy.......and again "suddenly" the price increases again. Obviously we have supply, and demand, issues......but historically it's pretty easy to manipulate the price of oil.....BOOM! CL 1 4 1 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks Adam. This ride is getting wild. 1 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nannab Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks Adam for the double chat 5 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said: Thanks Adam. This ride is getting wild. Agreed exciting and wild 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DinarThug Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Adam Montana said: More thanks to @DinarThug for this one... I Just Licked A Chalkboard ! 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKD Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks Adam for all the thoughtful insights. What an epic time! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umbertino Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks Adam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.M. Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Thanks A.M. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davrol678 Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 What a blinder! Such a stack of information and news to "blow us all out of the water," to quote a very important person recently!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj1 Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 Yes thanks Adam and others who bring very well thought out reasoning to the board!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ly410 Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmb4321 Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 9 hours ago, ChuckFinley said: Thanks Adam. This ride is getting wild. I Agree CF....and this ride is going to end soon....👍 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badnooze Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 Thanks be to you Adam and All the rest of the Dinar Gang for thoughts and guidance in this unprecedented time. Ya'll make us smile and help sustain our hopes and dreams. As Hancock said "Good Job!" Keep the Coms open for all of us bleacher seat Bud's! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 Edited by LGD 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 18 hours ago, nannab said: Thanks Adam for the double chat Agreed exciting and wild 9 hours ago, lmb4321 said: I Agree CF....and this ride is going to end soon....👍 I think that they are running out of option fast. They are going to have to push the button. Even if they do not want to they may be force too. 2 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 2 hours ago, ChuckFinley said: I think that they are running out of option fast. They are going to have to push the button. Even if they do not want to they may be force too. Conspiracy Theory, I think that is the plan. 💯😁 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkeiller Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 11 hours ago, lmb4321 said: I Agree CF....and this ride is going to end soon....👍 Wouldn't that be something!? It couldn't come at a better time! 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsenatus9 Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 I am glad to see "Yota" is back 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitz Posted April 24, 2020 Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 I will take .10-1.17 right now and leave and not come back!!!! 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Montana Posted April 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, Blitz said: I will take .10-1.17 right now and leave and not come back!!!! I see how it is 2 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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