Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
Adam Montana

Adam Montana Weekly 26 April 2019

Recommended Posts

Good morning DV!

 

The sun is shining most places and it's a great day to be here!

 

No major updates on the dinar, but that's not discouraging in the least. If you check my last couple weekly updates, and then compare to the news posts over the last week, you'll see that we're simply tracking on a positive course.

 

All good stuff, my friends! :twothumbs:

 

VIPs, there is a new post up for you in the VIP section: 

 

I also sent out an email yesterday to all VIPs. If you're in VIP, and you did not see that email in your inbox, then it went to your spam or promotions or some other email destination... it's up to you to fix that! I can't control your email inbox, and we don't want you to miss important updates, so take a minute to ensure DinarVets emails are landing in your Primary inbox and you'll enjoy the peace of mind that comes along with that.

 

:pirateship:

 

One last thing - in that VIP post, I mentioned an upcoming OSI post. After sleeping on it last night, I am going to save that post for during Ramadan. 

 

That's it from me for today - let's use this thread for Q's from the members for my next update. The current news trend is really positive and I have a suspicion that I'll be doing more than one update next week.

 

GOOOOO RRRRVVVVVV!!!!!

 

:tiphat: 

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 7
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, arvee4me said:

I am loving all the positive news I am hearing.  Can't wait for that final e-mail!  Thanks Adam.

 

 

As long as you’re VIP that “final” email will just be the beginning :twothumbs: 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 5
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm.....not addressing the OSI info until Ramadingdong?........aren't you the one who says nothing ever happens during that illustrious event.......that leads us to mid June.....time to take a vacation or a long nap....    CL

  • Thanks 3
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

Hmmm.....not addressing the OSI info until Ramadingdong?........aren't you the one who says nothing ever happens during that illustrious event.......that leads us to mid June.....time to take a vacation or a long nap....    CL

Noticed that, too, CL.  Unfortunately, apparently there was no major HCL news.  But, hope springs eternal.  We still have a week!!

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Baghdad, Kurdistan to discuss oil disputes, 50 percent bpd boost in Kirkuk

48 minutes ago
 

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/8a616b3b-8f4d-4df6-ae01-479391adf9e0


Baghdad, Kurdistan to discuss oil disputes, 50 percent bpd boost in Kirkuk
An employee works in an oil field in Iraq. (Photo: Archive)
 

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – A delegation from Baghdad will soon meet with officials from the autonomous Kurdistan Region to discuss disputes related to oil exports and other budget agreements, Iraq’s Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said on Thursday.

Ghadhban also stated that his ministry had conducted research to boost oil output capacity from Kirkuk Province's oilfields by 50 percent of the current level, Reuters reported.

Earlier this month, the Iraqi official visited Kirkuk and said that the Iraqi federal government would build a refinery in the province that would boost barrels of oil per day (bpd) that Kirkuk is able to produce.

“The ministry has put the final touches on building an investment refinery in Kirkuk with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day and according to the latest international standards,” he said.

Exports from oil fields in Kirkuk to Turkey’s Ceyhan port rose to 99,000 bpd in March, from 63,000 bpd the month before, according to the ministry’s statement.

The disputed province, claimed by both the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government of Iraq, has some of the oldest and largest oilfields in the Middle East.

Since 2014, Kirkuk’s oil was exported through the Kurdistan Region to Turkey. However, the shipment was halted after the military takeover by Iraqi forces and Shia militias in the province on Oct. 16, 2017. On Nov. 16, 2018, Baghdad restarted exports of Kirkuk oil to Turkey through the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline at a rate of around 50,000 bpd.

Iraq is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) second-largest producer just after Saudi Arabia and currently has an output below its maximum capacity of nearly five million bpd.

In early January, Baghdad reaffirmed its commitment to cut annual oil production as per an agreement between OPEC and additional non-member states such as Russia – known together as OPEC+ – to curtail global supply and bolster prices. 

Edited by 6ly410
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

Hmmm.....not addressing the OSI info until Ramadingdong?........aren't you the one who says nothing ever happens during that illustrious event.......that leads us to mid June.....time to take a vacation or a long nap....    CL

Was thinking the same thing when I read that line. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy Moly! I know Adam didn't call out a date or anything but I REALLY liked this " The current news trend is really positive and I have a suspicion that I'll be doing more than one update next week"  Reading that blurb certainly got my attention as we wind this journey down. Thanks for all that you put into this Adam! Go RV!  

  • Upvote 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

nothing ever happens during that illustrious event.......that leads us to mid June.....time to take a vacation or a long nap....

 

Investing In Dinar Should Come With A Warning ! :o 

 

No Caption Provided

 

:D  :D  :D 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 8
  • Confused 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, coorslite21 said:

Hmmm.....not addressing the OSI info until Ramadingdong?........aren't you the one who says nothing ever happens during that illustrious event.......that leads us to mid June.....time to take a vacation or a long nap....    CL

Agree with your comment coorslite21,

Iraq is moving forward but still has a lot of work to do.... nothing gets done

in ramadingdong 😂

- government is not fully seated 

- financial inclusion started yesterday 

- third review IMF-SBA third quarter 2019

- e-governance project still in the work

- HCL and Art 140 in discussion 

- rampant corruption 

- Census 2020

- private banks in Iraq are still far from the banking business

-They haven’t started to develop private sector yet.

 

iraq needs an economy that can support a higher value of the IQD... they’re not there yet.

 

like you said CL21..... time to take a vacation or a long nap.

 

Go iraq 

Go reality 

Go work to do

  • Thanks 7
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Laid Back

  • Om sai Ram
  • Laid Back
  •  
40 minutes ago, Laid Back said:

like you said CL21..... time to take a vacation or a long nap.

 

And This Is Coming From Our Resident Long Nap Expert - Hammock Boy ! :o 

 

Power NAP!. This is the real .. Fake and gay!

 

:D  :D  :D 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Laid Back

  • Om sai Ram
  • Laid Back
  •  

 

And This Is Coming From Our Resident Long Nap Expert - Hammock Boy ! :o 

 

Power NAP!. This is the real .. Fake and gay!

 

:D  :D  :D 

Clown🤡 you crack me up👍🏼😂

5 hours ago, wildeman said:

Agree with you LB, I keep checking and hoping but it

looks like another wasted year. 

namaste..

wildeman, thanks for your input,

In my opinion its not another wasted year.... I see a lot of progress in different areas

but still work to do.

 

Go RV sooner than later 

Go $1:1

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it time to dust off the sleeping bag,and get ready to camp out in front of the bank? :lol:

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"I am going to save that post for during Ramadan."

 

Yep. It's looking more like August again. Hopefully, THIS August!!! 

  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Kurdistan Region pays Gulf Keystone nearly $15 million for January oil share

By Rudaw 2 hours ago 
398Views
Kurdistan Region pays Gulf Keystone nearly $15 million for January oil share
An employee works at an oil facility in the Kurdistan Region. File photo: Rudaw
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has made a gross payment of $14.7 million to British oil producing company Gulf Keystone for the sales it made from Sheikhan field in January.

“Gulf Keystone confirms that a gross payment of $14.7 million ($11.5 million net to GKP) has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government for Shaikan crude oil sales during January 2019,” a statement released by the company on Friday said.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum operates in Sheikhan field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s province of Duhok, which currently produces 40,000 barrels of oil per day.

The company first discovered Sheikhan field in 2009, which has plans to boost its daily production of crude oil in the field to 55,000 barrels per day. Overall production from the field has now exceeded 40 million barrels, the company says.

Other companies have commended the KRG for making timely payments as it recovers from the economic crunch. 

During the past four years, the KRG was unable to make a regular and timely payments to energy companies operating in the Kurdistan Region due to its overstretched financial resources allocated partly to fund its war with the Islamic State (ISIS), accommodate an influx of refugees from Syria and displaced persons from Iraq, as well as its budget share cut by Baghdad in 2014.

Following its budget cut by the federal government, the KRG started to implement an unpopular salary-saving system that paid employees only a portion of their salaries. The system was rolled back following the passage of Iraq’s federal budget for 2019 that saw the Kurdistan Region receive a share in order to pay employee salaries.

Nearly 1.8 million Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) turned to the Kurdistan Region to seek shelter after the Syrian conflict exacerbated and the jihadist group swept through Iraq and took large swathes of territory in the country.

Now that relations between the KRG and Baghdad have improved, the KRG is in a better position to regularly pay oil and gas companies working in the region. And this will create better conditions for oil and gas companies to invest more in the region, helping Erbil recover from the financial setbacks of the past four years.

Brent Crude Oil traded at $72.15 per barrel on Saturday, according to the Financial Times — down from just over $74 on Monday when US sanctions targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps went into effect.
 
  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • Similar Content

    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning good morning!
       
      Date check... YEP, it's August 5. 👌
       
      There is a lot going on right now in the Dinar world. I'll do a breakdown of the articles and news later this week, possibly Sunday, but definitely before next Wednesday.
       
      For this morning, I just wanted to pop in and say "hi"!
       
      Interesting threads of the moment: 
       
      Of COURSE the Weekly Powerball Pool. (You can't win if you don't play!)  NESERA / GESERA - I've been receiving a lot of messages about this one. I'm not ignoring it on purpose, as I was accused of in one message! I'm just holding comments for now... but it's certainly worth a look! Check it out here. For those in VIP - A VIP update.* (email going out in 3... 2... 1... you should have it by the time you read this. )  
      *I touched on some items in that VIP update that are extremely important, and the work that I referenced there has my calendar busy (BUSY!) for the moment, so I'll end this here and get back to it.
       
      Have a FANTASTIC day, everyone!
       
      Go HCL... go Iraq... GOOO RRRVVVV!!!!
       
       
       
      - Adam
       
      ***** edit - adding link to the VIP post that was sent via email ---> Here it is <----
    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning DinarVets, Happy Wednesday!
       
      Hump day is here again, so the first thing I did was... double check the DATE on my title  
       
      Today IS the 29th. So far, so good!  
       
      I don't have to tell everyone this (thanks to everyone who emailed!), but the site was down for maintenance earlier this week. It will be down again, possibly a few times, over the coming days. We are adding some functions, revamping some backend stuff, and making improvements. 
       
      Don't worry - the downtime will be limited and short.
       
      WHY these changes are happening now should be obvious if you read the news and keep up with the developments. 
       
      Change is coming, and I plan on being over-prepared.
       
      We are also going to be doing some tests on some internal systems... including the "RV Text" system. This will NOT happen until 1) I send the email announcing it, and 2) you follow the instructions you are given. Please do NOT make a post saying "I didn't get the text!". (Now that I've written that, I am expecting only half of the usual posts saying "I didn't get the text"  )
       
      Full details on the changes will be released in short order. Other than the upcoming TEST text, the only time you will get a text from me is still the RV announcement.
       
      Before we have an RV, we need the HCL to be done. I'm more certain of this than ever... and activity in Parliament regarding the HCL has been higher lately than it has in years.
       
      In fact, it was on the agenda for today. (Has anyone kept track of how many times they have mentioned it this month alone?!)
       
      I continue to be extremely impressed with how Kazzammie is moving things forward. This guy should have been hired a long time ago!
       
      Don't get too excited, at least not quite yet... I don't expect to see the RV announced until the HCL is completed. And I don't expect the HCL to be announced as completed until they are ready to RV. These are likely to be two simultaneous announcements, judging from how things are proceeding.
       
      The headline will look something like this:
       
       
      Of course, that will be in Arabic. And the translations will vary, but the end result is the same: 
       
      Higher exchange rate = Profits for us.
       

       
      Being in VIP here at DinarVets guarantees you a couple things, only one of which is that Text Message I mentioned above.
       
      We are also going to get a better return on our exchange by reducing the spread - if you don't know what that means, for the LOVE OF PETE PLEASE READ THE CASH IN GUIDE! It's free, it's short, and you have nothing to lose by reading it. 
       
      There is much, much more, but when the very first thing you get is more money in your pocket... do I really need to say more?!  
       

       
      Rather than spending my time on breaking down the news articles this morning, I'm going to get back to the nerdy and thankless work that goes on in the background here. I'll invite everyone to post any specific questions you have on (Iraq, HCL, Kazzammie, etc) below, but please don't ask about the site changes yet - I'll send an email and make an official post when these upgrades are complete.
       
      Have a fantastic day, everyone! 
       
      Go Iraq.
       
      Go HCL.
       
      GO RV!!!!!!!
       
       
       
      - Adam
       
      P.S. Can't forget the Weekly Powerball Pool!  
       
       
    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning folks, Happy Wednesday!
       
      OIL - over $40. Good enough!
       
      OIL is an interesting spot to start this chat because... well because "OIL". OIL is the reason Iraq has this unique opportunity and it's the foundation for their wealth - past, lost, present, and future.
       
      If Iraq didn't have the natural resources, this site wouldn't exist.
       
      The opportunity wouldn't be here.
       
      But, they do, and we are here. Our man @yota691 just posted this article where our other man Kazzamie gives us a little "read between the lines" material. At first glance, it sounds like the article is describing a normal visit to a neighboring middle eastern country. 
       
      Upon deeper investigation, you should realize that Iraq has successfully migrated from the place where Iran was manipulating them, to their current position of strength with Iran.
       
      Iraq is no longer a puppet of Iran. 
       
      This is one of the best possible scenarios for us! I wouldn't say it was mandatory for a progression of the RV timeline, but it's most certainly a positive thing!
       
       
       
      Iran isn't the only place Iraq and Kazzammie are working. We're also witnessing positive Saudi news.
       

       
      We also have news regarding Iraq's oil exports... and they are NOT complying with the OPEC+ agreement. It was my opinion all along that they would not comply with that agreement... they are nodding "yes", but doing exactly what they want at the same time. Iraq is moving forward, they are strengthening all aspects of their situation... and that is GOOD for us!
       

       
      How many "thumbs up" emojis can I use in one day?! Don't worry, I'm not done yet - there's more coming!
       
      In the VIP section, I'm working on a couple of things. One is a "What-To-Expect-And-Do-Post-RV" post/guide. As I was going through that project, I decided to incorporate it into a sort of "VIP Verification" project, which is tied to another project that will revamp and revise the Text Message Service. (When the RV is announced, part of the VIP benefits here is a text message to you notifying you of the event.)
       
      I'll be sending out an announcement once that's complete - I'm expecting it done and launched by middle of next week, unless we have an RV in the meantime. If that happens, please note that the current Text Service is functioning perfectly, and anyone who has paid for it will get their text. The Text Service will NOT change, and NO TEST TEXTS will be sent, until I make the public announcement. 
       
      Part of the "VIP Verification" project is going to be a short quiz on the Cash In Guide - many people still haven't invested the 7 minutes into themselves and their future, and this kind of blows my mind! It's a free guide, it's a short read, and you might be amazed at how many questions will be answered when you read it.
       
      For your own peace of mind... just grab a copy and read it over your morning coffee or on the next bathroom break. It's really that short, that simple, and it's free! Get it here.
       
       
       
      Ok, my thumbs are getting lightheaded here... time to get to work.
       
      Don't forget the Weekly Lotto Pool - get in!
       
      Go Kazzammie, go HCL, go Iraq....
       
      GO RRRVVVV!!!!!!!
       
       
       
      - Adam
    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning DinarVets, happy Wednesday!
       
      If it feels like you just heard from me... the last update was just Sunday the 12th and it was a good one, judging from the commentary that followed!
       
      If you didn't catch it, the majority of it was a recap on my theory of what the Rate should/could be. I don't have much to add on that (yet), but what I AM doing today is wrapping up some changes to the RV Text Message service - you will see an official announcement on that soon.
       
      FYI - when the value of the Dinar changes (RV!), all members of DinarVets are going to get an email announcement. It will contain information on the rate and any other information that is available at that time. This email is free of charge to ALL members of DinarVets - if you're not a member yet, you can sign up for a free account here.
       
      DinarVets members can purchase a one-time text alert, which will alert you to check your email for the announcement I mentioned above.
       
      VIP members will get a text message alerting them to check their email. This service is included with VIP at no additional fee. 
       
      The current TEXT system is still working perfectly, but given the current situation... I felt it was time to revamp it and make DOUBLE sure that no texts would get lost. The "weakest link" in the text system is user input error, so we are going to add a "test" functionality to the system. :gasp: 
       
      VIP members, and anyone who has purchased the $9.99 text message service - you're going to get instructions on how to verify your phone number and receive ONE test text message. This will be free for you. If you want to change your phone number and test the new number, there will probably be a small fee to run the system and change the number - just to keep it from being abused.
       
      The email announcing that should go out by the end of next week. Again, and this is important(!!!) - the current system is still working perfectly. There is no need to worry! If the RV is announced tomorrow, the current system will send out the RV text to the number you entered, as it was entered.
       
      I'm also working through the "What to Expect and Do - Post RV" post for the VIP group. I'm hoping to release both of these items at the same time, with a surprise bonus for the VIP members.
       
      It should be no surprise that I'm revving up the engines on important things like this. We are seeing the most positive HCL news that we have seen in... well, ever - and I'm putting 100% into making sure all systems have green lights and double failsafes.
       
      If you're not in VIP - you should be. The choice is yours, of course! I'll keep doing the Weekly updates until the RV is announced, and then I'll be limiting myself to the VIP group.
       
      Best regards, everyone, and make it a great day!
       
      Go HCL.
      Go Iraq.
      GO RV!!!!!!!!
       
       
       
       
       
       
    • By Adam Montana
      Hey hey Happy Sundayyyy!!!
       
      There are so many things that I want to go over right now I barely know where to start!
       
      Perhaps "the basics" would be good. Or maybe the rate should be addressed. I'm also working through a "Post-RV - What To Expect And Do" article that will go in VIP this week. There are changes coming in the tax codes (for multiple countries), there are political situations that are extremely relevant and telling, and so much more is happening all at once right now!
       
      The "basics" are simple, and that's all anyone really needs to be able to sit back and wait. Iraq previously held one of the highest valued currencies in the world, and one day they will again. Although their country was knocked into the stone ages through a series of events that are now somewhat ancient history, Iraq still holds a majority of the black gold available on this planet. While the world runs on this stuff, and it will continue to do so, Iraq continues to hold an immensely powerful position. They suffered some extreme setbacks, but they did not lose their oil. This is a no-brainer to me - the value of Iraq's currency will rise again.
       
      The main holdup has been political. When Saddam was removed, the entire government basically collapsed, and the world lost faith in Iraq's ability to do... anything.
       
      The current situation is entirely different than the situation that dropped the value of the Dinar.
       
      In fact, the current situation is entirely different than that of Iraq even 5 years ago!
       
      We currently have a Prime Minister in place who is finally doing all the right things. I have affectionately named him "Kazzamie" because the progress he's made seems like a magic trick at times! 
       
      The next crucial step to this journey, and this is a fundamental part of it, is the HCL.
       
      "HCL", or "Hydro Carbon Law", is the agreement necessary to furthering Iraq's regaining of wealth. Without the HCL in place, there is no financial agreement within Iraq, and it is more beneficial to the politicians to keep the rate low.
       
      Once the HCL is in place, it will be more beneficial to have a higher rate... and we are seeing a LOT of promising news on HCL right now.
       
      The rate - let's address that, because it's important.
       
      One of the most frustrating things about this adventure is the math. You know the saying "where there is smoke, there is fire"? This applies to all of the rumors you hear from the "date and rate" gurus. Sometimes they are misguided, sometimes they are mistaken, sometimes they are just plain "full of it", but all of the noise - the smoke - begins from a place of reality, and that place is the very real opportunity we have here. 
       
      The value WILL go up. The question is, and always has been... How much, and when?
       
      Unfortunately, there is no way to know for sure. That's why this is called "speculation" instead of "guaranteed", just like "fishing" isn't called "catching". (We all know how many fish you catch if you never throw a line out!)
       
      What we CAN do is make reasonable guesses. We can form informed opinions. 
       
      I have an opinion... this was published a while back, and the theory part still holds true. I may be updating my thoughts on the rate soon, but everything else is still solid.
       

       
      ============ 
       
      There are plenty of theories on what the rate of the revalued Iraqi Dinar will be, and they honestly range from pennies to dollars… my friends, that is a HUGE difference in ROI if you hold several million Dinar! If the rate is several dollars, then your holdings could equal several million USD! If the rate is in the pennies, then your investment is potentially worth several tens of thousands of dollars… BIG swing there, right?
       
      I’m going to list a couple of speculated rates and the reasons behind them, then I’ll tell you what I think is most likely.
       
      Speculated rates and theories:
       
      Based on Kuwaiti Dinar.
       
      It’s been said that the rate must equal their neighboring Kuwaiti Dinar rate, which would put the Dinar at $3+. Many people speculate that the Iraqi’s are a prideful people, and it would be a slap in the face to have a revalued currency be less than Kuwaits.
       
      Based on "dropping the 0′s"
       
      It’s mentioned many times in the news that the 0′s could be dropped, which would mean one of two things:
       
      1. The 0′s are dropped from the bills, which essentially puts most investors at a break even return. Nothing gained, nothing lost.
      2. The 0′s are dropped from the exchange rate, which is currently .00086 (Dinars are worth about 1170 IQD per 1USD, or an exchange of .00086). This means your dinars are worth .86USD per Dinar – in other words, a 10,000 IQD note is exchanged for $8,600 minus spread and bank fees. (If you don’t understand the “spread”, or you think there will be no spread, PLEASE read my free Cash In Guide. It’s located here)
       
      Based on “equal to the USD”
       
      We see articles all the time that reference the US Dollar, stating that the CBI wants the IQD to be equal to the USD. An easy assumption is to simply RV at 1:1, making a 10,000IQD note worth $10,000.
       
      Based on “they can’t RV low or investors will buy too much!”
       
      Some people state they will not cash in for anything less than $1. They state that Iraq would be foolish to RV at a low rate, because then big money will come in and buy up a ton of Dinar before it can go higher. (This theory is wrong, FYI.)
       
      My Thoughts:
       
      Keep in mind that I’m trying to keep this as simple as possible. I am going to use hypothetical figures, and I’m going to make my point as quickly as possible… we all have better things to do than listen to me ramble on for days, right?
       
      I agree with a few of the speculations above. I think the Iraqi Dinar should have a higher value, and I think we are simply waiting on the HCL or Chapter 7(!!!) to be finalized… then it will be “GO” time! But my opinion of the rate goes a little deeper… it includes a “business sense analysis” that everyone might consider.
       
      Iraq is a business – and the business is natural reserves. Iraq holds a majority of the worlds natural gas and also black gold, also known as “oil”. When Iraq is released from Chapter 7 and the HCL has been settled, they will begin operating their business using the same principals any other successful company uses – the goals being profit, sustainability, and success!
       
      Did I mention profit?
       
      Yes indeed, friends!
       
      PROFIT.
       
      The most important concept to understand today is this: The CBI makes money on every auction, and they will continue to do so forever. When the Dinar changes value, the CBI buys it at a lower rate, and then sells it at a higher rate.
       
      The CBI will ALWAYS choose the path that makes them the most money. Keep that in mind as we continue with this thesis! (*** click here for a detailed explanation on how the CBI auctions work)
       
      Let’s move forward a few steps and talk about a ReValued dinar. I agree that a lower rate than Kuwait will be a blow to the ego’s of the Iraqis. I agree that it should be on par with the USD, or even higher. I agree that the rate WILL get there… eventually.
       
      When the Iraqi Dinar is ReValued to a higher rate, it will become more desirable to do business in Iraq. Many people will be less hesitant to sign contracts and invest in Iraq. The current Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX) should see some major movement… and the CBI (Central Bank of Iraq) is going to make tons of money on the exchanges!
       
      I believe that Iraq can sustain a very stable currency at a rate of $3 or higher, but I don’t think they will immediately jump to that rate even if they ultimately desire it to be so.
       
      Here’s why:
       
      An instantaneous RV to $3.00 will create a ton of wealth – coincidentally, probably about the same amount of wealth that they lost when Saddam Hussein was taken out of power and the value of the Iraqi Dinar plummeted to mere pennies! What’s done is done, though, and we have to look at the situation for what it is today – not what it could have been or should have been.
       
      When the Dinar rises in value and people are ready to “Cash In”, there is only one place that will ultimately buy the Dinar: The CBI.
       
      Since they control the rate and they are the top of the chain, they can set their spread (the fees they charge for cashing in your Dinar) to any rate they want. I’m of the opinion that they will jack that rate up as high as possible in the beginning… and who’s going to say no? The CBI has a monopoly on this market and it is theirs to do with as they please.
       
      A normal foreign currency exchange carries a “spread” of 2-6%. This means if you exchange $1000 worth of a foreign currency, you can expect to receive approximately $940 after the spread is taken out. Those numbers in the middle aren’t important, the only important thing is what you walk away with.
      Since the CBI has complete control on the spread, which trickles down through every single banking institution that handles the Dinar, we are at their mercy. Don’t miss this next line:
       
      If the CBI won’t buy your dinar, then you will not be able to cash in.
       
      Take a hypothetical rate of $3.
       
      The CBI can (and probably will) put a hefty spread their buy price – I’ve heard it will be at least 25% if they RV high. This means they will sell the Dinar for $3, but they will buy it for $2.25
       
      Personally, I’d be grateful and overjoyed to see a 25% spread on a $3 RV! Most likely, we will only see about $2.00 per Dinar at a $3 RV by the time it gets in our hands (every party involved will take a little chunk, unless you are physically able to go to the CBI. And you can’t do that. So, just accept it – you’re going to pay a spread.)
       
      Once again, the extra numbers aren’t important right now – the only number that’s important is the $3 and the $2.25, because that’s what the CBI is worried about.
       
      Let’s say there is a billion USD worth of Dinar out there right now, or 1 trillion IQD. The CBI pays $2.25 for every $3 worth of Dinar, then resells it the next day for $3. That’s a profit of $75 billion just on the spread. Not bad, right?
       
      The problem is it cost them 225 billion to do that… and that 225 billion goes right into the “debt” column.
       
      My friends, Iraq isn’t about to go into debt so we can get rich. Therefore, a $3 RV isn’t the answer, and we must look at another possibility.
      Take a hypothetical rate of $0.10 (ten cents)
       
      Again, using the same numbers we have 1 Trillion IQD that needs to be changed out to smaller denominations. The CBI announces the rate at ten cents and also announces that your large notes will be worthless in 90 days.
       
      Every investor would love to hold out for a higher rate, but in this situation you have no choice… you cash out. The CBI will likely use the same spread, so they will buy 1 trillion Dinar at a rate of .10, minus 25% spread, which gives us about $750 for every 10,000IQD note we have… and the CBI makes 250 million in the first 90 days at an expense of only 1 billion. This puts their debt on this transaction at only 750 million… a far cry from the 225 billion in the $3 RV!!!
       
      However, this is only the first step. Now I’ll show you how Iraq can easily wipe that debt out by ReValuing the Dinar at a lower rate initially, then making money as the Dinar increases in value over a relatively short period of time.
       
      What about all the other investors that will now come in to buy up the lower denomination notes, speculating that the Dinar will continue to rise?
      I completely agree that this will happen! And the CBI will continue to make money on it. In the above situation, the Dinar is being sold by the CBI at .10USD per 1IQD. After all of the large notes are brought in, it is reasonable to assume twice as much money will be poured back into Dinar by speculators, at .10. Now the CBI is able to sell 2 billion at 10 cents, and they can move the peg on the Dinar up a bit – say, to 15 cents. Investors will cash in for a profit, allowing the CBI to resell at the higher rate and once again make profit.
       
      Of course, not all investors will cash in at 15 cents. For the sake of argument, let’s say half of the investors sell out at that point. The CBI pays 0.1125USD per dinar (A profit of 12.5% for the investors!!!) and resells that billion for 15 cents – securing a profit of 375 million.
       
      The CBI’s “debt” on the original RV is now down to 375 million… do you see how this is working? The CBI is able to make up the “loss” on the original RV simply by continuing to hold auctions and allowing more and more people to profit on the increasing value.
       
      At this point, in our hypothetical situation of a 10 cent RV, the CBI has covered half of it’s loss with only one “repeg”. They can continue to profit all the way up to the final rate of $1, $2, $3, or higher – as long as investors are willing to buy the Dinar, they can keep moving it up.
       
      And the way things are going over there… why wouldn’t we keep buying? I know I plan on doing so!
       
      In conclusion, I want to caution everyone to be careful with this investment. As good as things look, we never know when some hairbrained Arab is going to pull the pin on a grenade or something silly like that. Only buy what you can afford to lose, and always consult a professional before making investment decisions.
       
      =========== // ============
       
      The above was written years ago, and it all holds true to this day.
       
      When I originally wrote the above thesis on the rate, we were waiting for Chapter 7 and the HCL.
       
      Chapter 7 is done.
       
      HCL is next.
       
      The RV will be shortly after that, or it will happen simultaneously.
       
      Either way... we are closing in on the final day.
       
       
       
      Go HCL, Go Iraq, 
       
      GO RRRRRVVVVVV!!!!!
       
      Happy Sunday, everyone!
       
      - Adam
       
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.