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Adam Montana Weekly 4 March 2020


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43 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Futures plunge on the CV and Oil news.  Trading Limits triggered. Wow. Buckle up!!

 

S&P are down -140 

DJ-30  -1078

Nasdaq - 387

 

Oil is in the low 30’s

10 year at .51yield. 

 

Gold up 25 ish 

 

 

 

My GC contracts I bought 1650 last week are looking pretty healthy right now.

 

Let's see how things are looking tomorrow morning about an hour before the US markets open.

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Russia's stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC

By Natasha Doff and Anya Andrianova on 3/8/2020

comment.png
 
 

MOSCOW (Bloomberg) --Vladimir Putin’s resistance to further output cuts has pushed Russia’s accord with the OPEC cartel that controls more than half of the world’s oil production toward breakdown. Some key metrics guiding the Russian economy help explain the president’s reasoning.

“Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow.

Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.

Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day.

International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel.

Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years.

Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with.

The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.”

 

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec

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7 minutes ago, usndiver said:

Russia's stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC

By Natasha Doff and Anya Andrianova on 3/8/2020
 

 

comment.png
 
 

MOSCOW (Bloomberg) --Vladimir Putin’s resistance to further output cuts has pushed Russia’s accord with the OPEC cartel that controls more than half of the world’s oil production toward breakdown. Some key metrics guiding the Russian economy help explain the president’s reasoning.

“Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow.

Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.

Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day.

International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel.

Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years.

Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with.

The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.”

 

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec


interesting plot twist there for Russia - survive sanctions, emerge stronger. 
 

Also of note is that Saudi Arabia needs $100 per barrel prices to balance their budget, and what’s their currency value again?

 

:twocents: 

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9 minutes ago, Adam Montana said:


interesting plot twist there for Russia - survive sanctions, emerge stronger. 
 

Also of note is that Saudi Arabia needs $100 per barrel prices to balance their budget, and what’s their currency value again?

 

:twocents: 

 

That would be 27 cents to 1 USD.....perhaps the perfect storm?

CL 

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The first circuit breaker pulled. Market closed for 15 min.  

 

The S&P is coming up on the 2725 support from June 2019. 

After that we are looking at 2345 ish.  

 

Its going to be be a long day.  Do not try to trade this folks. 

I’m not.  Just watching trying to make sense out of it all.

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It has been the perfect storm many times over the years.  Once it was because oil prices were high which would give iraq a better value on their money. Then it was low and that was a perfect storm. Then oil went up again oh that was a perfect storm again. This has been going on for years. It's easier for Iraq to sell their toilet paper at a low price and buy it back at a even lower price.  Why would they sell low and buy back at a high price? I have played in the stock market for years and also managed all of US Banks 401k's for years and nobody makes money selling low and buying back high. Ya I know what you are going to ask,,,  why are you here ?  Well I invested in this sh_t show and will stick it out just to see if I can be proven wrong.  I really hope I am proven wrong but I have been here since 2005 and no such luck. I know this isnt what you want to hear, so give me all the negatives you want they wont and dont hurt my feelings, heck they mean nothing to me. Just like the positives mean nothing too.  Just voicing my opinion.  

Sorry for the rain on your parade.

Have a great day. 

 

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I lost my gold stock, stopped out.  Loss was no bueno.  Still in my gold etf.  

 

Traded aapl over the VWAP, out in 12 min for a sold trade.  Was not expecting that but I Trade what I see and let the emotions go.  It’s not easy.  

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20E667B3-E171-476C-AD0E-C350CEC24A86.jpeg.0aa7522c357b773d5cff21eb999c5f2d.jpeg

 

 

The S&P is holding the 2882 ish support from Aug 2019 top line

The next support is 2745ish from June 2019 2nd line

After that 2345 Dec 2018. Bottom line

 

I have no idea what will happen next. This is an ongoing event and the selling isn’t over yet imo.  I look for bounces off the support lines. I am also looking for an economic stimulus announcement by the Government sometime today or tomorrow.  I’m looking for some leadership from the top.

 

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B9D2CAF0-E9BE-46AC-A915-608558EC3083.jpeg.b2e7cb236d6f6dbf7639bc089f2c6326.jpeg00AF239E-2953-45FB-95DD-3257B78401E4.jpeg.dd99008a5aa4066a2273ccc8e7a64723.jpeg

 

 

i really like what I’m seeing.  Markets have held for the time being and I’m seeing traders and big boys nibbling.  I have 3 trades in so far and doing well. Even in bad times there are opportunities.  The two charts are 10 min time frame and you should see the Compqx which is the Nasdaq held and in a trading range.  The other stock is Dollar Tree.   Price over the ema 20 on that 10 min and I went in.  Got a nice trade and exited.  I’m also in Aapl at 272.78. Trying to hold on.   This is some tricky trading but again I Trade what I see.  

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

B9D2CAF0-E9BE-46AC-A915-608558EC3083.jpeg.b2e7cb236d6f6dbf7639bc089f2c6326.jpeg00AF239E-2953-45FB-95DD-3257B78401E4.jpeg.dd99008a5aa4066a2273ccc8e7a64723.jpeg

 

 

i really like what I’m seeing.  Markets have held for the time being and I’m seeing traders and big boys nibbling.  I have 3 trades in so far and doing well. Even in bad times there are opportunities.  The two charts are 10 min time frame and you should see the Compqx which is the Nasdaq held and in a trading range.  The other stock is Dollar Tree.   Price over the ema 20 on that 10 min and I went in.  Got a nice trade and exited.  I’m also in Aapl at 272.78. Trying to hold on.   This is some tricky trading but again I Trade what I see.  

 

 

Thanks Pitcher for posting these updates. Can you post the pic of your workstation again. I was talking to a friend about it. Thanks.

 

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19 hours ago, Pitcher said:

No problem Chuck.  5 screens if you count the IPad and TV on the left side. I spend 85% of my time on the big monitor front and center.  Everything else is for quick reference and when I study after the market.E53140C9-C537-4262-839A-B175B6158F06.jpeg.e98fccc40222b715f8f47bf2b84d68cd.jpeg

 

 

Looking good

before I took a needed break from the day trading

my Center screen was a 55 inch tv

2 smaller units on right 2 on left

 

man that was hard on eyes 

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I tried the TV thing but the resolution hurt ny eyes as well.  I take a break every 20 mins or so.  

 

Even though we are up big premarket I still believe the trend is down because of the uncertainty of the CV and it’s effects on future earnings.  What we have is a classic, some people trying to get out that will sell these up moves versus the people who are wanting to buy for the long term.  We are exchanging weak hands with a stronger committed holder.  

 

Every investor has to determine if they go in now what will be the downside risk vs the upside potential.  I thought about it a lot last night and I can see a downside risk of 5 to 15% remaining in this down trend.  It is an educated guess based on my experience and a hard study of the charts last night. Is is 100% right, probably not but I will trust my instincts over what I hear on TV any day.   It’s a moving target with the CV. We just don’t know and fear is a real emotion.

 

Everyone wants this to be over quickly and resume the Bull Market.  It just doesn’t work like that.  Real damage has been inflicted on a few Sectors and that will have a ripple effect throughout the economy.  I’m expecting more volatility and believe the market will continue to have big swings based on whatever news comes out. I came to the conclusion that I will continue to wait before I start investing.  I will continue to watch the markets closely and continue to Day Trade what I see.  

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6 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Trade what I see

Agreed

i use to play more pre and after market

 

wish I had a million dollars kicking around mid yesterday

 

my thoughts were for a quick up Rick this am

then yes switch over

i believe coming down

 

thats why I took a break 

rollercoaster can be hard on nerves when you drop 100 grand in 2 seconds 

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18 hours ago, Smokey Mtn. Dinar said:

Pitcher  I know you are NOT a broker, but I would like Your OPINION. If I decide to call my broker and ask them to BUY me shares in oil, to hold for a while, would I eventually see a nice return? Eventually oil will have to go back up. Only asking for your personal opini

 

I can’t give you that advice. Consult your advisor and see what they think.  

 

Oil is definitely beat to hell.  Will it go back up probably but oil has a lot of problems going forward.  I am not a buyer of oil but it might work out well for you and your portfolio.  

 

I apologize for the non answer but investing is a personal venture.  Everyone has different goals and time frames for attaining those goals.  I’m a trader not a broker or an investment guru.  The reason I started writing these posts was an attempt to help some who are more active in their investments prepare for what I saw coming on my charts.  I hate to see people lose money.  

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