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Adam Montana Weekly 4 March 2020


Adam Montana
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3 minutes ago, davis411 said:

rollercoaster can be hard on nerves when you drop 100 grand in 2 seconds 

 

Yes it can be but you have to love the action which can become very addicting.  I go in spurts.  When I get that exhausted feeling I take a few weeks off to recharge.  I study and trade almost everyday.  Today I don’t plan on trading but I’lL be watching and working on some scans.

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1 minute ago, Pitcher said:

I’lL be watching

Haha yep

it is a rush

even when I said no need a break 

ahhh I was back in

the rush and nerves shot was something you don’t feel unless your in where if you lose gonna hurt

 

keep in mind I do prefer the rush more when I am winning 

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I’m definitely seeing a sell into strength action today.  I’ve made zero trades. I have come down with an old disease.  Wussyitis.  Or indecision.  You can’t be a Day Trader if you wont act.  Trying to regroup but really struggling.  Probably going to leave and try a little latter.  

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Below is a Weekly chart of the CBOE Market Volatility Index.  Yesterday we hit the 2nd highest Volatility rate in the last 20 plus years.  Only 2009 was higher.  I’m posting this for a historical reference point.  The Market is dealing with a lot of uncertainty and a lot of fear.  The goods news is we will get through it and start a new cycle.  It’s a great opportunity to buy leading stocks for a longer term investment if you are patient. 

 

 

93894E86-5B63-4EB2-B22D-E289F86EE63C.jpeg.bf03be3325a0729e50befa0d9183598d.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Pitcher said:

I’m definitely seeing a sell into strength action today.  I’ve made zero trades. I have come down with an old disease.  Wussyitis.  Or indecision.  You can’t be a Day Trader if you wont act.  Trying to regroup but really struggling.  Probably going to leave and try a little latter.  

Ahhh come on

You can do it

play the scared 

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8 minutes ago, davis411 said:

i should get 50 percent as a motivator fee

 

I will make you President when I make billions and can afford to buy the office for you.

 

Here is the trade on a 5 min chart. Beautiful entry over the  ema 8 and then over the 20 ema. I like playing large cap stocks that have liquidity ( high volume trading) and low spreads.  In markets like this they are pretty easy. There were 2 other good trades earlier in AAPL but I just couldn’t pull the trigger.  It happens. 

 

DF9081D3-B752-44F2-9DF8-9A9B08403501.jpeg.3c53b92b69af739924ea5a6dd6f8ecb8.jpeg

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You got to grab and go in this market.  Very choppy. Still no fun. That was a fairly easy 3 Trade day for over 15 bucks if I was strapped in.  I got some, made some bucks so it’s all good . I try again tomorrow.  I’m done for today. I play 2-4 hours a day. That’s all I want to do.  

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The Market is playing hardball today.  Taking us down on the possibility that the stimulus won’t be enough. ( in other words, bs).  

 

I got whipsawed in MRNA today and lost a good chunk of change on my first trade.  I was greedy and got in to early.  Stayed with it and made another trade in the same stock and got most of my money back but I’m still upside down.  When trading one must stay in discipline or pay the price.  Today I paid the price.  I will end up positive for the day but I’m going to probably have to put in a full day which bites.  

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B548B348-6197-4540-9776-12D1EB1CF067.thumb.jpeg.3ca03b5c2add0cca9ff6da80c4ae0dc3.jpeg

 

 

Here s the Daily chart with support lines ( green) and resistance (red).  The indicator below the chart is the Williams Accumulation/Distribution.  As you can see no one is buying much these days. When the line comes back up through the teal line and then the next line I will be getting close to buying some swings.  That may be weeks or months. We haven’t even gotten the worst from the CV yet.  The last green line on the chart is the Dec 2018 low.  That will be a 30% drop off the All time high.  I have a feeling that’s were we are headed.  Watch those support lines below.

 

2730

2608

2345

 

I took the 50, 100; 200 ema’s Off this chart but I’ll post another pic later.  The 50 is sitting on the 100 and falling fast.  Keep an eye on the 50 crossing the 200 ema.  

 

So the short answer to should I buy, I wouldn’t, NOT YET.  

 

Still waiting for the details on the Trump Stimulus.  

 

The Uncertainty Factor is still very strong due to CV.  

 

Be Patient and be well.  

 

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F226DED6-6671-4B1D-931C-AF403B9826F4.jpeg.a3f90fbc8de4b74c544de48fd79d0a05.jpeg

 

Here Is the Final Daily for the S&P 500.  I brought the 50, 100, 200, ema back up and kept the Hull 13 up as a fast moving average.  Notice the 50 has now crossed the 100 and heading towards the 200.  Today was brutal and the action was swift and volatile. I managed to eek out a positive day but I earned it.  There were a lot of shenanigans and I’m going to tell you it was NO fun.  We broke the 2730 support from the June of 2019 but finished above and just shy of official Bear territory.  The DJ- 30 has crossed and now in Bear land.  It doesn’t mean anything except the long in the tooth 11 year Bull run is about over.  

 

The next support is 2650 and then 2608 ish. I believe we will still hit the Dec 2018 low but it will not be straight down.  The CV pandemic label was all it took today.  This uncertainty is incredible and everyone I talk to thinks we are headed to that 2018 low and they are hoping that holds. The VIX was back up today as it hit 53.90.  I will say this about many of the Technicals, in cases like this a lot of the metrics aren’t great and don’t foretell a bottom.  This will bottom when it bottoms.  So be aware if that 50 crosses the 200 ema.  That is called the “death cross” and it means exactly that. 

 

In a normal bad year the S&P will go down 13%, in a recession it is more like 30%. Or about 10% more off the Feb all time highs.  Again we just don’t know how bad this pandemic will go on and how it will affect companies earnings.  When the Austin SXSW, the Houston Rodeo, and the NCAA Basketball Tournaments get cancelled or curtailed then you can see that it will have a ripple effect thought the economy.   Throw in the Energy, and Hospitality Sectors getting crushed, canceled sporting events, major conventions and maybe a lockdown, well, it’s not going to be pretty for earnings/economy.  I believe we are finally realizing this is going to be a horrible, hopefully one time event for the USA and the world.  

 

There is some good news.  Vaccines are being developed and Stimulus will be in place to get things going and help soften the economic blow.  I will continue to give you my thoughts if Adam doesn’t mind me taking over his thread.  (sorry Adam, should I start a new thread or post in the stock market thread.  I didn’t even know we had one of those).  

 

I’m expecting another relief rally sometime tomorrow but it will probably be short lived. There is just too much uncertainty and it appears we are just getting started in this process in the USA.  I pray we all get through this without any members getting ill.  

 

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3 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Today the Houston Rodeo was cancelled for the first time in History. This is a huge event that could be compared to about 3 seasons of Pro Football attendance.  Wow

 

 

 

I read about this earlier today on the RFD-TV website. I was surprised when I read it. But it is for the best. 

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32 minutes ago, Smokey Mtn. Dinar said:

 

I read about this earlier today on the RFD-TV website. I was surprised when I read it. But it is for the best. 

 

I used to serve on the hog committee so I know how devastated everyone who works so hard must be feeling.  You are correct, it is for the best.  The Houston Rodeo provides many scholarships for hard working youngsters and I read where they will make sure they still get passed out.  Awesome!!!  

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We are currently about 25% off the all time highs.  We will have a Recession for sure but hopefully we can bounce back quickly.  This is not 2008. The banking system is in much better shape than 2008.  The problem is the uncertainty.  We just don’t know how long the businesses will get hit because we just don’t know how long the CV takes to run it’s course.  The market is going down very fast, fastest on record, as it’s trying to price in where we are in this process. A bit terrifying.  Everything is powering down.  

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50 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

We are currently about 25% off the all time highs.  We will have a Recession for sure but hopefully we can bounce back quickly.  This is not 2008. The banking system is in much better shape than 2008.  The problem is the uncertainty.  We just don’t know how long the businesses will get hit because we just don’t know how long the CV takes to run it’s course.  The market is going down very fast, fastest on record, as it’s trying to price in where we are in this process. A bit terrifying.  Everything is powering down.  

Circuit breakers tripped again, reopened down another 100 points. Crypto down as well a ton. Maybe a month of pain then hopefully we begin an uptrend after cv calms down 

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Today is the worst day in DJ -30, EVER!!!!!   

 

I got stopped out of my Gold ETF, took my loss like a man.  Geez when gold doesn’t work that tells me it’s throw the baby out with the bath water time.  Maybe we are finally getting closer to capitulation. We will see what shakes out.  I’m in no hurry but I may start nibbling some time next week.  I will buy best in breed, US centric companies with large cash hoard and little debt.  Think big tech companies.  

 

BTW, I am seeing a little nibbling today.  Too early imo.

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