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Official: Iraqis keep 70 trillion dinars outside the banking system


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 2021-04-08 06:55
 

Shafaq News / The financial and economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh revealed, on Thursday, the reasons for the expected decline of the Iraqi economy by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, while noting that the best solution is the advancement of the agricultural sector.

Saleh said in an interview with Shafaq News, "The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank expect the Iraqi economy to decline in the coming years because they assume that the situation continues in Iraq, as there is an expansion in spending and a decline in non-oil revenues and that dependence on oil is increasing," indicating that "the latter" It is considered a dangerous matter, especially as the cycle of oil assets fluctuates between ups and downs. Consequently, debts are increasing and crises are increasing, which is a major problem. "

He added, "The population of Iraq is increasing annually and multiplying, therefore, without effective and strong economic reform, its meaning remains dependence on oil and dependence dangerous, especially since oil for the next ten years may be effective in the lives of countries' economies, but as a priority it appears to diminish and thus reliability is difficult."

Saleh pointed out that "Iraq has a way to solve these problems, which is to reform the economic situation in a continuous and balanced manner," noting that "reforming the economic situation must be taken into consideration unemployment in Iraq, whose solution is one of the most important priorities, given that the citizen needs work to live, not necessarily." That it should be through government employment, but through activities that guarantee people, even if it is in the private sector, and this requires enormous legislative power. "

He added, "There are other solutions, which are to properly launch development through the partnership between the state and the private sector in principle, in order to achieve sustainable development that guarantees the right of future generations, not to transfer the current burdens to the next generation, but rather to transfer to them prosperity, prosperity, infrastructure and work prospects, not the opposite and this goal is not the opposite." Required".

Saleh stressed that "the best solution is the advancement of the agricultural sector. This does not mean neglecting industry and other activities, but agriculture is the strategic alternative to oil, especially that Iraq has enormous potentials to invest its lands, as there are 23 million dunams of agricultural land, of which we use 11 dunums per season."

He added that "this requires a great strategy in the field of water and a great strategy in the field of agricultural land management," explaining that agriculture will rid you of dependence on oil as the only resource for the public budget, provide food security, provide job opportunities, and turn Iraq into an advanced agricultural country.

Saleh explained that "the developed countries at the present time have not abandoned agriculture despite the strength of the United States industrially, because the greatness of their economy also lies in agriculture, and the same is the case for New Zealand and Canada, where the latter is still considered an agricultural country, especially in the cultivation of grains despite its progress in other activities."

Salih stressed the importance of following methods that would "revive the real sector in Iraq, create job opportunities, and get rid of the chaos of dependence on importing foodstuffs from abroad by working and genuinely investing the land in a so-called" green revolution "similar to what the State of Mexico and other countries have followed in the field Reviving lands and developing agriculture. "

It is noteworthy that the International Monetary Fund had predicted last February that Iraq's hard currency reserves would drop to 40.8 billion dollars in 2022 and 33.2 billion in 2023 and that government debt would rise compared to the GDP by 89.8% in 2022.

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Today, Saturday, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed the details of the first economic reform program in Iraq and the date of its launch, while indicating that there is an opportunity to make Iraq independent of oil dependency.

 

Saleh said, to the official agency: "Iraq has an opportunity that extends for ten years before entering the world and penetrating the roots of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the start of various renewable energy alternatives, so that its production costs become less than the cost of producing crude oil, the depleted wealth whose use was associated with the second industrial revolution during the Victorian era until now." ".

 
 


He added that "improving oil prices in the foreseeable future, and achieving good incomes for the country, could reduce severe shortages and revive some aspects of the economy, but Iraq He is bound by a ten-year development plan that establishes the employment of oil revenues in investments that absorb a growing manpower without losing future job opportunities, taking into account the violent impact that may result from the goal set to reach zero emissions by the year 2050, according to the sources of the International Energy Organization.

 


He explained that "this is a call for a new economic development contract during which the economy gradually separates from the dominance of oil to achieve independence from dangerous rentier fluctuations, and establishes a real diversification of the national economy. foundations to lay the foundations for a renewed economic development for Iraq.

And Saleh indicated that "OPEC's share of oil production will rise to more than half of the global total production, as oil and gas supplies will be limited to small, fewer countries, and that the annual per capita income from oil sales may fall by about 75% during the next two decades," stressing that That "every rentier dollar that exceeds the urgent social and human needs must go to productive and income-generating employment."

He emphasized that "in front of Iraq An opportunity for a decade, starting from now until the early thirties of the current twenty-first century, to shift towards productive investment in three advanced fields, the first of which is large-scale agriculture with high cash returns with the development of infrastructure projects related to the regulation of water, irrigation, and agro-industry, i.e., manufacturing agricultural inputs and products in a way wide, and the second metal and geological to provide crane investment additional financing and support for oil, particularly in phosphate, silicon, sulfur, etc., and thirdly working to change the digital infrastructure radically for all walks of life without losing the country 's backbone , a power and transport strategic. "

He noted the benefit of " the need Restructuring the national market and reorganizing its institutions, i.e. creating (the organized market) to play the role of partnership with its financial, technical and pioneering surpluses in drawing and implementing an image Iraq The economy is independent of oil dependence, especially in the main real sectors and tourism.”

He called that “the years 2022-2032 will be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing in a young nation whose half of the population is between the age of 19 years downwards, which complicates the two problems of work and sustenance at the same time, which is the bottleneck from which we must get out.”

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To get out of the mantle of oil .. Iraq reveals the details of an economic reform program and the date of its implementation

To get out of the mantle of oil .. Iraq reveals the details of an economic reform program and the date of its implementation
oil - archival
 


Mubasher: The appearance of Muhammad Salih, the financial advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, revealed the details of the first economic reform program for Iraq and the date of its launch.

And Mazhar Muhammad Salih confirmed, in statements to the Iraqi News Agency "INA", today, Saturday, that he has an opportunity to make Iraq independent of oil dependence.

Saleh stated that Iraq has an opportunity that extends for ten years before entering the world and penetrating the roots of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the start of various renewable energy alternatives so that its production costs are less than the cost of producing crude oil.

And he indicated that the improvement in oil prices in the foreseeable future, and achieving good incomes for the country, could reduce cases of severe need and revive some aspects of the economy, but Iraq is bound by a ten-year development plan that establishes the employment of oil revenues in investments that absorb growing manpower without losing job opportunities. in the future.

He pointed out the need to take into account the violent impact that may result from the goal set to reach zero emissions by the year 2050, according to the sources of the International Energy Organization.

Saleh explained that this is a call for a new economic development contract, during which the economy gradually separates from the dominance of oil to achieve independence from dangerous rentier fluctuations, and establishes a real diversification of the national economy.

And he continued, "And so comes the selection of the year 2022, to launch the first economic reform program, in response to the post-legislative elections stage and a foundational step to lay the parameters of a renewed economic development for Iraq."

Saleh stated that OPEC's share of oil production will rise to more than half of the world's total production, as oil and gas supplies will be limited to smaller, fewer countries, and that the annual per capita income from oil sales may fall by about 75 percent during the next two decades.

He stressed, "Every revenue dollar that exceeds the urgent social and humanitarian needs must go to productive and income-generating employment."

He pointed out that his country faces the opportunity of a decade, starting from now until the early thirties of the current twenty-first century, in the transition towards productive investment in three advanced areas:

 

Extensive agriculture with high cash returns, with the development of infrastructure projects related to water regulation, irrigation, and agro-industry, i.e., manufacturing agricultural inputs and products on a large scale.

- Mineral and geological investment to provide additional financing leverage and support for oil, especially in phosphates, silicon, sulfur and others.

Working to radically change the digital infrastructure for all aspects of life without losing the country's backbone, which is electricity and strategic transportation.

Salih noted the necessity of structuring the national market and reorganizing its institutions, i.e. creating (the organized market) to play the role of partnership with its financial, technical and leadership surpluses in drawing and implementing Iraq's economic image independent of oil dependence, especially in the main real sectors and tourism.

Al-Kazemi’s advisor called for the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing in a young nation whose half of the population is between the age of 19 years down, which complicates the problems of work and support at the same time, “which is the bottleneck that should be exited ".

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 Baghdad: Haider Al-Rubaie
The Financial Adviser in the Cabinet, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stressed the need to strive to achieve a tremendous industrial and agricultural renaissance, and to work to increase the "non-oil" GDP during the next ten years, warning that inaction in this matter may result in serious economic distortions. , especially with future global expectations that the demand for oil derivatives will be “normal and non-strategic.”
Iraq relies almost entirely on oil imports to finance its financial budgets, and to provide the required liquidity for various strategic projects, which many economists constantly warn of, who see the “rentier economy” as a danger that can cause many financing problems, especially in The price fluctuations experienced by oil prices 
globally.
 
Agricultural Reality
Saleh explained to "Al-Sabah" that "what agriculture constitutes in the (non-oil) GDP does not exceed 12 percent, and this is a major imbalance regarding workers in this sector, who make up 22 percent of the total workforce," noting that "the percentage of land cultivation does not exceed On 7-8 million dunams in each season, the proportion of arable lands estimated at 28 million dunams. 
The financial advisor pointed out that «the manufacturing industry, which alone occupies 16 percent of the Iraqi labor force, contributes only about 2 to 2.5 percent of the gross domestic product (excluding 
oil). 
 
tax revenue
With the aim of achieving future development successes, Saleh suggested “linking tax revenues to agricultural and industrial financing, to be provided as soft loans to farmers and industrialists, and the search for any other supportive financial resources, accompanied by a carefully studied and renewed government support program,” noting that “such trends require linking ownership Through production and linking financing to taxes, it must contribute to stimulating a huge industrial and agricultural renaissance at the end of the current decade or the beginning of the next.” 
 
Renaissance year
Salih stressed the importance that next year 2022 be the year of the renaissance and real operation of Iraqi agriculture and industry, and within programs with which the government infrastructure is integrated in the areas of irrigation, drainage and irrigation, as well as providing energy sources for productive uses, and building a balanced labor market supported by a modern system of insurances. 
Social.
The financial advisor believes that the contract 2022 to 2032 should be a decade of economic diversification for Iraq, agricultural, industrial and digital, during which unemployment and its serious problems should be zero before the global demand for oil derivatives becomes a normal and unusual request. 
Strategic.
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20 hours ago, yota691 said:
2,533 views
 
 

Today, Saturday, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed the details of the first economic reform program in Iraq and the date of its launch, while indicating that there is an opportunity to make Iraq independent of oil dependency.

 

Saleh said, to the official agency: "Iraq has an opportunity that extends for ten years before entering the world and penetrating the roots of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the start of various renewable energy alternatives, so that its production costs become less than the cost of producing crude oil, the depleted wealth whose use was associated with the second industrial revolution during the Victorian era until now." ".

 
 


He added that "improving oil prices in the foreseeable future, and achieving good incomes for the country, could reduce severe shortages and revive some aspects of the economy, but Iraq He is bound by a ten-year development plan that establishes the employment of oil revenues in investments that absorb a growing manpower without losing future job opportunities, taking into account the violent impact that may result from the goal set to reach zero emissions by the year 2050, according to the sources of the International Energy Organization.

 


He explained that "this is a call for a new economic development contract during which the economy gradually separates from the dominance of oil to achieve independence from dangerous rentier fluctuations, and establishes a real diversification of the national economy. foundations to lay the foundations for a renewed economic development for Iraq.

And Saleh indicated that "OPEC's share of oil production will rise to more than half of the global total production, as oil and gas supplies will be limited to small, fewer countries, and that the annual per capita income from oil sales may fall by about 75% during the next two decades," stressing that That "every rentier dollar that exceeds the urgent social and human needs must go to productive and income-generating employment."

He emphasized that "in front of Iraq An opportunity for a decade, starting from now until the early thirties of the current twenty-first century, to shift towards productive investment in three advanced fields, the first of which is large-scale agriculture with high cash returns with the development of infrastructure projects related to the regulation of water, irrigation, and agro-industry, i.e., manufacturing agricultural inputs and products in a way wide, and the second metal and geological to provide crane investment additional financing and support system" rel="">support for oil, particularly in phosphate, silicon, sulfur, etc., and thirdly working to change the digital infrastructure radically for all walks of life without losing the country 's backbone , a power and transport strategic. "

He noted the benefit of " the need Restructuring the national market and reorganizing its institutions, i.e. creating (the organized market) to play the role of partnership with its financial, technical and pioneering surpluses in drawing and implementing an image Iraq The economy is independent of oil dependence, especially in the main real sectors and tourism.”

He called that “the years 2022-2032 will be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing in a young nation whose half of the population is between the age of 19 years downwards, which complicates the two problems of work and sustenance at the same time, which is the bottleneck from which we must get out.”

Year 2022_2032 😆🤣😂 I will be dead by then..

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9 hours ago, SONIA1 said:

Year 2022-2032

So we have to wait 10+ more years until 2032 for cbi to rv the iqd? I think the cbi and goi are in the state of confusion to decide the right time and the best rate to rv the iqd. That' s why they tried to create a distraction to keep the dinar investors away from buying more dinars. So should we come to this site once a week or month or year then? Again, i won't change my mind and won't sell my dinar until the ride is over period.

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To get out of the mantle of oil .. Iraq reveals the details of an economic reform program and the date of its implementation

To get out of the mantle of oil .. Iraq reveals the details of an economic reform program and the date of its implementation
oil - archival
 


Mubasher: The appearance of Muhammad Salih, the financial advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, revealed the details of the first economic reform program for Iraq and the date of its launch.

And Mazhar Muhammad Salih confirmed, in statements to the Iraqi News Agency "INA", today, Saturday, that he has an opportunity to make Iraq independent of oil dependence.

Saleh stated that Iraq has an opportunity that extends for ten years before entering the world and penetrating the roots of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the start of various renewable energy alternatives so that its production costs are less than the cost of producing crude oil.

And he indicated that the improvement in oil prices in the foreseeable future, and achieving good incomes for the country, could reduce cases of severe need and revive some aspects of the economy, but Iraq is bound by a ten-year development plan that establishes the employment of oil revenues in investments that absorb growing manpower without losing job opportunities. in the future.

He pointed out the need to take into account the violent impact that may result from the goal set to reach zero emissions by the year 2050, according to the sources of the International Energy Organization.

Saleh explained that this is a call for a new economic development contract, during which the economy gradually separates from the dominance of oil to achieve independence from dangerous rentier fluctuations, and establishes a real diversification of the national economy.

And he continued, "And so comes the selection of the year 2022, to launch the first economic reform program, in response to the post-legislative elections stage and a foundational step to lay the parameters of a renewed economic development for Iraq."

Saleh stated that OPEC's share of oil production will rise to more than half of the world's total production, as oil and gas supplies will be limited to smaller, fewer countries, and that the annual per capita income from oil sales may fall by about 75 percent during the next two decades.

He stressed, "Every revenue dollar that exceeds the urgent social and humanitarian needs must go to productive and income-generating employment."

He pointed out that his country faces the opportunity of a decade, starting from now until the early thirties of the current twenty-first century, in the transition towards productive investment in three advanced areas:

 

Extensive agriculture with high cash returns, with the development of infrastructure projects related to water regulation, irrigation, and agro-industry, i.e., manufacturing agricultural inputs and products on a large scale.

- Mineral and geological investment to provide additional financing leverage and support for oil, especially in phosphates, silicon, sulfur and others.

Working to radically change the digital infrastructure for all aspects of life without losing the country's backbone, which is electricity and strategic transportation.

Salih noted the necessity of structuring the national market and reorganizing its institutions, i.e. creating (the organized market) to play the role of partnership with its financial, technical and leadership surpluses in drawing and implementing Iraq's economic image independent of oil dependence, especially in the main real sectors and tourism.

Al-Kazemi’s advisor called for the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing in a young nation whose half of the population is between the age of 19 years down, which complicates the problems of work and support at the same time, “which is the bottleneck that should be exited ".

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Adviser to the Prime Minister reveals the details of the first economic reform program in Iraq and its launch date

Economie05:37 - 12/06/2021

 
image
 
 

 

 Baghdad - Mawazine News
, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed today, Saturday, the details of the first economic reform program in Iraq and the date of its launch, while indicating that there is an opportunity to make Iraq independent of oil dependency.
Saleh said, "Iraq has an opportunity that extends for ten years before entering the world and penetrating the roots of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the start of various renewable energy alternatives, so that its production costs become less than the cost of producing crude oil (the depleted wealth whose use was associated with the second industrial revolution during the Victorian era until now)" .
He added that "improving oil prices in the foreseeable future, and achieving good incomes for the country, could reduce severe shortages and revive some aspects of the economy, but Iraq is bound by a ten-year development plan that establishes the employment of oil revenues in investments that absorb a growing manpower without losing job opportunities." In the future, taking into account the violent impact that may result from the goal set to reach zero emissions by the year 2050, according to the sources of the International Energy Organization.
He explained that "this is a call for a new economic development contract during which the economy gradually separates from the dominance of oil to achieve independence from dangerous rentier fluctuations, and establishes a real diversification of the national economy. foundations to lay the foundations for a renewed economic development for Iraq.
And Saleh indicated that "OPEC's share of oil production will rise to more than half of the total global production, as oil and gas supplies will be limited to small, fewer countries, and that the annual per capita income from oil sales may fall by about 75% during the next two decades," stressing that That "every rentier dollar that exceeds the urgent social and human needs must go to productive and income-generating employment."
He stressed that "Iraq has a decade-long opportunity, starting from now until the beginning of the current thirties of the twenty-first century, in the transition towards productive investment in three advanced areas, the first of which is extensive agriculture with high cash returns with the development of infrastructure projects related to water regulation, irrigation and agricultural industry, that is, industrialization. The inputs of agriculture and its products on a large scale, and the second is mineral and geological investment to provide an additional financing lever and support for oil, especially in phosphates, silicon, sulfur, etc., and the third is to work to radically change the digital infrastructure for all aspects of life without losing the country’s backbone, which is electricity and strategic transport.
Saleh noted "the necessity of structuring the national market and reorganizing its institutions, that is, creating (the organized market) to play the role of partnership with its financial, technical and leadership surpluses in drawing and implementing Iraq's economic image independent of oil dependence, especially in the main real sectors and tourism."
He called for "the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing in a young nation, half of its population is between the age of 19 years downwards, which complicates the problems of work and maintenance at the same time, which is the bottleneck that should be exited from." finished 29/h

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“He called for "the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing”

 

I read another article talking about keeping the actual dinar rate fixed for a year, from December 2020 to December 2021.

 

Go RV in 2022, if we are lucky 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Laid Back said:

“He called for "the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing”

 

I read another article talking about keeping the actual dinar rate fixed for a year, from December 2020 to December 2021.

 

Go RV in 2022, if we are lucky 

 

 

Add that to the articles , No laws will be worked on … they are only going to be working on the upcoming elections.

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I am not getting my hopes up because they are not passing any laws until after the elections in October and that will only give them two months to get things done like the HCL, census etc. They haven't done anything in decades so they damn sure are not going to do it in two months to give them enough time to change the exchange rate before 1/1/2021 like they did last year. I have been around long enough not to believe what they say but what they DONT do!! They haven't  implemented the 2021 budget and we are in the month of June. When 2022 gets here they will talk about it happening in 2023 like they do every year. They will have to be forced to RV their currency either by a revolution from the Iraqi people or the economy will go into bankruptcy because they will continue with the same economic policies!! 

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3 hours ago, Laid Back said:

“He called for "the years 2022-2032 to be the first development decade for Iraq after four decades of nothing”

 

I read another article talking about keeping the actual dinar rate fixed for a year, from December 2020 to December 2021.

 

Go RV in 2022, if we are lucky 

 

 

Something is not adding up more than usual. Kazemi said he is not running for office. If he was running why wait for 2022 to implement white papers. No one knows who will win the election. Saying the white papers won’t be implemented till 2022 is like saying the check is in the mail. Corruption knows no national patriotism. So let’s say the corrupt threatens kazemi with the threat of death if he stops the currency auction or bring the whales to justice. Probably why Jennie blasshart and kazemi had a falling out. Anyway, if kazemi knows that nothing will change as far as the white papers, economic reform, then why hold talks with foreign countries. It would be senseless. Saudi, Kuwait, Germany, France, Great Britain, etc. 

most things Having to do with Iraq do not make sense because we are not in the corruption circle. Not implementing the white papers before the election really does not make logical sense. So either it is upon us or as greedy has stated, Jan of 2022 is a long shot too.

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Source:
 
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At a time when the government is talking about an economic reform paper that can get the country out of its current crisis, specialists stress the need to show seriousness in these moves, and work to remove political pressures to ensure positive results are achieved.

 
In an effort to contain the financial crisis, the government is talking about a new economic reform paper that could come out Iraq, From oil dependency… steps that are intended to be achieved seriously and properly managed to develop oil-related economic sectors, with the aim of advancing the economy’s reality and keeping it away from the path of crises.
 
 

Some are not optimistic about such moves, as they consider that the pressures of the various political parties that will face these plans and proposals will make them difficult to verify on the ground.
 

The citizen does not care about reform plans, for what is most concerned with are the actual steps that can provide solutions to the existing crisis that has burdened him, especially after the rise in the exchange rates of the dollar and its negative repercussions.
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Assigning Al-Saadi as Executive Director of the Higher Committee for Economic and Financial Reform

political03:22 - 06/16/2021

 
image
 
 

 

Baghdad - Mawazine News
The Ministry of Finance announced, on Wednesday, the assignment of Counselor Alaa Abdul-Hussein Al-Saadi as Executive Director of the Higher Committee for Economic and Financial Reform, indicating that this came to implement the requirements of the reform program.
And the ministry's media office said, "The Prime Minister's Office decided to assign Counselor Alaa Abdul Hussein Al-Saadi, to be the executive director of the Supreme Committee for Economic and Financial Reform."
He added, "This came in line with the importance of the economic and financial reform plan and in order to enhance its tasks in a manner that ensures the implementation and completion of its entire premises aimed at correcting the foundations of the Iraqi economy, and based on Cabinet Resolution No. (50) for the year 2021 related to the approval of the white paper for economic and financial reform, which includes the formation of (the Supreme Committee). For reform) headed by the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance as Vice-President and the membership of the ministries and relevant authorities and for the requirements of implementing the reform program, following up and providing the necessary support to the responsible authorities and setting the necessary regulatory frameworks for its implementation.Al-Saadi held several positions outside and inside Iraq, the last of which was the head of the Iraq Securities Commission. /h

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Baghdad / National News Center المركز

The Ministry of Finance announced, on Wednesday, the assignment of Counselor Alaa Abdul-Hussein Al-Saadi as Executive Director of the Higher Committee for Economic and Financial Reform, indicating that this came to implement the requirements of the reform program.

The ministry's media office said, in a statement received by the "National News Center", that "the Prime Minister's Office decided to assign Counselor Alaa Abdul-Hussein Al-Saadi, to be the executive director of the Supreme Committee for Economic and Financial Reform."
He added that "this came in line with the importance of the economic and financial reform plan and in order to enhance its tasks in a manner that ensures the implementation and completion of its entire premises aimed at correcting the foundations of the Iraqi economy, and based on Cabinet Resolution No. For Reform) headed by the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance as Vice President and the membership of the ministries and relevant authorities and for the requirements of implementing the reform program, following up and providing the necessary support to the authorities responsible for it, and setting the necessary regulatory frameworks for its implementation.

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      There are three aspects indicate the recession or the current economic downturn in Iraq .fmadlat growth in real GDP is still estimated at less than 1% and the total unemployment is about 28% of the total labor force, especially among young people, while the inflation is the most bizarre, as under Annual inflation basis without 2% despite the exchange rate volatility, which increased landing on the 12% compared to the official rate stable and fixed the exchange rate for reasons Takidah imposed by Article 50 of the federal budget for 2015, which obliges the Iraqi Central Bank to restrict sales of foreign currency, and the roof of a specific law Not more than $ 75 million in each working day. Was removed after Article 50 above the Federal Court's decision recently released this year which led to the rise of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and its recovery rate to be close to the official rate and the margin is currently only 5% in the exchange market, especially during the fourth of July weekend 2015. In the face of widespread Tying between the manifestations of the recession and its variables three (high unemployment and low growth and deflation), the Iraqi economy has become surrounded by monetary phenomenon very strange which is closer to the phenomenon of the liquidity trap Liquidity trap which mark it strong cash demand for the dinar and the dollar together behavior, which was born correlation between the exchange rate and the overall level relationship prices through real positive interest rate Taataaks a relationship with what was the case in times of inflationary nineties. The relationship between the exchange rate and the general level of prices is very strange and almost Today precautionary Hedge Monetary itself in the evolution of market behavior over the transition from a liquidity trap in dinars to the dollar liquidity trap.

      To refer to the economic crisis experienced by the country in the nineties of the last century and during the current account deterioration of the oil on the budget was fed leverage alternative-strong automatic cash release (via the expansion of domestic public debt-funded treasury vouchers in exchange for cash release and then rising aggregate demand rates), the availability of liquidity Local overly time that has strengthened the case of escape from the criticism towards carrying goods for fear of negative real interest which is what can be called the internal Baltazahm Crowding in. Thus, the structural forces generated inflationary expectations (especially the forces of surplus operations - and I mean profitability and rentier) owns behavior influential in moving that vehicle or cash medium of public financial ability to finance the budget to inflation or by monetary issuance superior to face Aotaweid inflationary effects of the deterioration of the exchange rate Iraqi dinar value of money and foreign direct transition to the relative prices of basic commodities and all other, especially food which constituted 62% of the family budget expenditures. Thus the inflationary expectations generated by the exchange market turn into actual inflationary forces Aahrha general level of prices rising once the growth of local public liquidity through government borrowing cheap (ie cheap Monetary Policy)

      If they hyper-inflation conditions in the nineties of the last century, at the very least are the product of structural forces possess management exchange rate as a function of generating inflationary expectations of the interaction of the foreign exchange market and the dominance of foreign currency to urge growth in the levels of liquidity funding promised deficit through monetary issuance as a vehicle or mode inflationary lead to Low internal value of money and then the general level rise of prices (ie the case of escape from criticism goods into) the state of the current recession in which the Iraqi economy lives and the crisis of liquidity and the tendency towards a liquidity trap as a behavior monetary demand (as well as the high autonomy of the Central Bank of Iraq) have all made signal of positive real interest contrast, referring to the general level of prices in the price of finding a correlation between the feedback and triggered inflationary expectations and the Iraqi dinar exchange rate.

      So it can not get rid of the current liquidity trap without a price. And that the price is high real interest rates down even if the benefit is cost Alfrsah to relocate to trap liquidity last foreign currency (the case with today is a relative escape from owning Goods few foreign goods superiority and cost-effective to keep the currency as a commodity with a high payoff carries the impact of wealth and leaked from a positive real rate of interest is high) rise in the dollar's value is the price of compensatory to abandon the high yield of the expected real interest about the high degree of liquidity trap Dinars (after an absence of inflationary expectations, which has been replaced by high real interest rates positive outlook)

      Structural forces generated as touched inflationary expectations previously, namely that the structural forces and most of the forces of surplus operations, estimated day rate of 83% of the total income forces, has become does not hold a function poignant and generating expectations Altdkhmayh as long as the vehicle liquidity almost absent, but has in the envelope deflationary current (function generator to the expectations of high real positive interest rate) .oan part of the backlash in the low exchange rate of the dinar, comes inevitably of the cost of the collection of liquidity in dinars to buy foreign currency .utalma that this backlash going on in the form of interest rate (which represents the cost of financing the purchase of foreign currency dinar Iraqi), the downturn in the general level probably will continue to longer-term phenomenon. As the actual volatility of the exchange rate will remain anxious and subject trap domestic liquidity and rising real interest rates, a situation which has euphemistically called super Palmzahmh under deflation Super crowding out.

      2. contraction of liquidity and attracting public: 
      With falling oil revenues from a monthly average increased to $ 8 billion in early 2014 to a monthly average did not exceed 4 Milirdolar, which restructured government spending so as to ensure the current budget's basically about investment projects stopped due to a failure to approve the budget year 2014 while the budget 2015 investment projects may Arthnt payment term agreements, particularly the new ones, a process that is still under way, let alone stop the majority of ongoing projects and stumbled dues contractors and contractors. In the face of this financial distress CBI gave a catalytic program by about 17 trillion dinars, which shares through open market operations of the resolution is an important aspect of bottlenecks bank liquidity and enabled the budget to borrow Treasury vouchers and other loans across the market. With total domestic public debt amounted to about 25 trillion dinars.

      However, the phenomenon of a liquidity trap is still high as the private consumer spending fell indicators or Ahli for high rates amounting to 14% of GDP to about 4% of that output. Which means that people are watching the development of the cash their income to refrain from exchange and stick function high cash demand moved to a high level last influenced by nominal interest generated by the rise (outer overcrowding factor and low expectations Allatdkhmah) and that the matter here to cash balances of individuals (liquidity trap) as the accumulation of surplus consumer unspent and are hedged by the face of the case of uncertainty about future income and growing cash balances to individuals through virtual real interest expected, and I can call this phenomenon a metaphor (Bmgulwb the cost of welfare as a result of inflation and addressed by Professor Martin Bailey economy in the famous discussed in the year 1956) as how great the case of austerity that have undergone forth the general budget for more than a year of expectations of a liquidity trap in the economy given that public expenditures are inherent GDP and did not say is the other 55% of that output. As for the Iraqi banking system is the other underwent sharp and to conduct high demand in the cash and then enter into a liquidity trap is different. Higher government Valaguetrad which sucked most of the stimulus program of the Central Bank referred flows to him earlier and dominated the bulk of bank liquidity available, has been around for government banks to big investor in government securities in exchange for a mile weak in the granting of credit even to meet with high interest rates or high fit and genuine interest that are subject to state Allatdkhm . Thus, the cost of credit has become high because of high interest due (outer scramble) while private banks shrank to high liquidity and liquidity by about a stomach for external conversion. And interest and the cost of referring get foreign currency became requires the transfer of the cost of bank interest to foreign currency as the price to give up a liquidity trap in Iraqi dinars and transferred to trap liquidity Last but foreign currency, while adding banks tax trusts amounting to 8%, which is currently suspended, which promised at the time as a external converter like the Tobin tax (Tobin Tax). It is a precautionary mainly in the behavior of speculators from the risks distributors.

      In light of the foregoing, the three traps liquidity Liquidity traps subject to it macroeconomic which handles function highly vulnerable to monetary request expectations of real interest rates positive, a trap liquidity individuals and trap liquidity State-owned banks as a force enjoys sovereign liquidity and finally trap liquidity of private banks that enjoy family powers the royal liquidity.

      3-price mechanism transition and expectations:
      Case coexistence appear with two different two phases of economic eccentric (and I mean the current economic recession, which is the opposite of hyper-inflation in the contract the previous Alstsaina) three phenomena reversible decade Altsaina inflationary economy from deflationary status quo: the first is the availability of a vehicle or mode of domestic liquidity has worked to move the landing forecast The yield on the money in real interest rates are negative because of inflation and inflationary expectations, which had generated effective demand caused by monetary issuance. The second is the absence of monetary issuance facilities to the crisis of liquidity or contraction now, taking generates expectations of real positive interest maximize the trap of domestic liquidity. The third was, the abandonment for trap domestic liquidity towards foreign currency requires compensation future is the transfer of real interest rates positive to the exchange rate at this time any reduction in the dinar under the influence of interest compensation (as if borrow an interest rate in order to buy the dollar) and here realized the case of foreign competition on foreign currency could be called foreign high-Palmzahmh ( Super crowding out). The process of loose liquidity flexible and generation through cheap financing Monetary inflation policy in the nineties of the last century had created a strong bond between inflationary expectations and its tool liquidity generated through public spending on the one hand and the high general level of prices on the other hand, and the effects of backlash in which overlapped the reasons the results. Where real interest rates negative signal has been sent its forecast inflationary through the general level of prices and under the influence of the tool carrier or vehicle carrier, a force monetary issuance and the evolution of money supply growth and deficit financing over the functions of demand cash flying toward abandonment of liquidity and to maximize the money rotation speed and speculative exchange rate, which led the falling dollar by rising inflationary expectations or negative real interest rates. In other words, the increasing spending or aggregate demand for individuals with the growing financing cash for issuance or funding to inflation in the general budget, emerged the phenomenon of internal contention Crowding in represented by abandoning cash for the benefit of goods and possession of .oha case has become fit behavior critically where the cash demand inversely with inflationary expectations because of the role of the signal (negative real interest) in the casino speculation on the signal degradation constant exchange rate, a behavior and conduct is a form of speculation and we can call it internal Baltazahm Super (Super crowding in)

      The case of the current downturn has created quite different from the loose liquidity phase and funding to inflation economic relationship, if it leads the cash demand behavior (of high liquidity trap) and associated positive relationship with the real interest rate to transfer the benefits of such a reference truly unexpected benefit and through the available liquidity of the field Monetary exchange rate to the conduct of any foreign currency liquidity trap. Given that interest rates may come into contact with the inalienable part of the installation of the exchange rate. And it emitter element down the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar himself, Moving from the local currency into foreign currency (within the movements subsequent backlash) mean sacrificing trap domestic liquidity, and that the price of sacrifice is the signal transfer real interest rates positive rate to the exchange rate and the opposite direction of any of the trap of domestic liquidity Dinars to trap liquidity in foreign currency will be a difference is by discount precautionary value equal to the real positive interest the same rate (ie, the price of abandoning trap domestic liquidity for the benefit of the trap of foreign liquidity. and that the price of real interest rates positive and moving to the exchange rate is the price of abandoning trap domestic liquidity. It contention external high as mentioned above in contraction severe rentier economy conditions, as it changed price signals (from a real unexpected negative interest during the cash over to the real unexpected positive benefit in monetary contraction time) unrealized causal relationship between the exchange rate and expectations of the general level of prices. In other words, Just solved real interest cationic replace inflationary expectations expectations (ie negative real interest during the cash over the stage), the disappearance of liquidity cart or cheap cash (Senyorreg) and prosperity of a liquidity trap and the prevalence of deflation in this time with the Central Bank of survival independent of the government and stick to being is not Leverage finance the budget in cash or cheap alternative to finance domestic public debt without going through the cash market, to confirm the stability of money growth and slow reproduction (relative to the domestic product) which is different in another image Alncodeh school behavior in the economy when describing mechanical contraction Kmgulwb of inflation.

      3. Conclusions
      A key conclusions borne out of the field of economic action at two different stages of diagnosis stages of inflation and deflation experienced by the recent economic history of Iraq. Inflationary first phase has shown during the siege (economic) on Iraq in the nineties of the last century, the next few years, the real interest rate negative signals (expected) that she was sending the money market, particularly exchange market turn off and through monetary issuance vehicle (continuous) to the expectations of inflationary sharp (taking place in the general level of prices) after interspersed with sharp changes in relative prices. Also it realized the effects of instant feedback is moving from (high) in the actual negative interest to the case of (lower) effective in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, meaning that the exchange rate fluctuates in decline or rise in inversely with the actual fluctuations in the level of interest a form of price speculation arising for expected depreciation of the exchange rate upward.

      Thus, the country has seen a sharp leaps inflationary averaged two places places over more than a decade and by 50% per annum. The current phase of recession, and with the growing phenomenon of the liquidity trap, the role of the vehicle carrier may disagree a lot and turned the country from inflation to deflation. Depravity Monetary sent today signals to the price of real positive interest (expected) which turns into a deflationary expectations in prices (especially at the level of the general level of prices) Whenever the trap of increasing liquidity rising cost of funding the Iraqi dinar, a condition resist the occurrence of price hikes due to the scarcity of liquidity itself, but find significance in the positive real interest high. And that the effect of retrovirus (actual) to signal real interest cation will turn into the foreign exchange market, as it is deducted exchange dinar for which the interest rate rises by the abandonment of the trap of domestic liquidity and transferred to a liquidity trap foreign currency rate which in this case a form of hedge Hedge forms, but without to witness the general level of prices of any fluctuation little toward the rise. The cost of the low stage in the dinar exchange rate is the price deflationary abandon the dinar liquidity and access to liquidity in foreign currency interest bearing dinar liquidity. In other words, the exchange rate will carry Frsah costs of return for high potential or unexpected represented by the real interest rate positive moved its impact of the dinar to the dollar trap liquidity last foreign currency added to the value of the dollar intake and this Maatmt called external Baltazahm Ultra which is equal to the day the benefit of monetary policy amounting to 6% Matrouh price it basically inflation of 1.6%, which is equivalent to today completely exchange differences between the central and parallel market.

      Finally, if the exchange rate in times of hyper-inflation is send an indication of inflationary expectations (a negative real interest) through the money supply and the increasing monetary issuance cart and finance the budget deficit and then the deterioration of the exchange rate, the exchange rate in times of economic downturn and stick trap liquidity, send different from the previous stage price signals a signal (real interest expected positive rates), something which maximizes the trap of domestic liquidity and strengthens the demand for cash balances to achieve the so-called metaphorically potential consumer or expected surplus (by Martin Bailey theory) which individual behavior comes to maximize something prosperity due to liquidity is expected to enjoy high purchasing power and the value of their returns. In other words, the reality of the situation deflationary marks the attainment of the case are the (inverted) Martin Bailey theory (based on the calculation of the cost of welfare caused by inflation) and inverted here from our point of view can be called in this case (gains welfare resulting from the downturn) as a behavior different in the monetary demand for individuals (which Unlike the cost of welfare due to inflation in the prevailing economic literature). (**)

      (*) Economic adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister

      (**) A Master distinct and important to Ms. Najla Shimon Chalabi / addressed for the first time the cost of inflation on welfare in Iraq - Al-Mustansiriya University / 2015

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