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America is NOT what you or THEY hate.  America is a piece of land, Geography if you will.  What you and your Communist Friends hate is the Constitution.  What you and your Communist Fri

Sunday, November 1 Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Florida: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna*

B iggest I diot D emoncrats E ver N ominated

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13 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

2016 was quite a shock, that's for sure....the polls were way off, as the silent Trump supporters kept to themselves until election day.  It's obvious that that is no longer the case....Trump flags everywhere out here in the sticks.  People are proud to shout their support for their given candidate.  The silent Trump supporters are out of the closet, loud and proud....So with that in mind, it would seem the polls are much more accurate this time around.  As always, just my honest opinion.

 

GO RV, then BV

Yep. And you are certainly entitled to it. 

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14 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

So with that in mind, it would seem the polls are much more accurate this time around.

You think like my Mom.

 

When I brought up the fact that he has a had time putting a couple of sentences together she barked at me and said:

 

Don't pick on the man because he has a speech impediment!

 

I didn't raise you that way!

 

Then I had to bite my tongue and remember #5 - Honor Thy Mother and Thy Father...

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9 hours ago, bigwave said:

You think like my Mom.

 

When I brought up the fact that he has a had time putting a couple of sentences together she barked at me and said:

 

Don't pick on the man because he has a speech impediment!

 

I didn't raise you that way!

 

Then I had to bite my tongue and remember #5 - Honor Thy Mother and Thy Father...

 

You're a good man, Charlie Brown.  :peace:

 

GO RV, then BV

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Presidential polls 2020: Trump freefall is going to cost GOP more than just the White House

Trump is running out of days to change the current trajectory of the presidential election, after a week where he pulled out of a debate scheduled for 15 October, and when Vice President Mike Pence apparently failed to win over more voters during his turn in the spotlight last week. Polls have grown so one-sided that Republicans fear a Democratic “blue wave” in November with control of the Senate also at stake.

The current polling average is a 10.6-point advantage in favor of former Vice President Mr Biden and running mate Senator Kamala Harris.

On 29 September, that average was just 6.1 points. Only one more major scheduled event remains on the calendar prior to election day on 3 November, the last debate on October 22.

In the two polls released recently, that were sampled entirely after the VP debate, the Biden-Harris margin is actually bigger than the current average, at 11.5 points (12 in ABC/Washington Post and 11 in IBD/TIPP).

 

The Trump campaign, hampered by a lack of funds which is causing it to pull ads in swing states, has failed thus far to tar Biden remotely as successfully as it did Hillarious Clinton in 2016.

Presently, Biden’s favorable/unfavorable number is positive (more favorable) by 6.9 points, according to the averages compiled by RealClearPolitics.

Compare that with Clinton in 2016, when the former first lady was viewed more unfavorably on the eve of the election by 12.9 points. That’s a swing of 19.5 points in favor of the Democrats. The president’s average is 42.9 per cent favorable to 54.2 per cent unfavorable (minus -11.3).

If the current polling proves prophetic, the GOP’s control of the Senate is nearly certain to be lost. Most Senate elections go the way of the state’s presidential vote.

Since 2012, according to Pew Research, 122 of 139 (87.8 per cent) “have been won by candidates who belonged to or were aligned with the party that won that state’s most recent presidential race”.

According to the current electoral map based on polling averages, that would mean that the Democrats would turn the currently red GOP Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa blue.

Their only loss in this model would be in Alabama. That would give the Democrats a 51-49 edge and make Chuck Schumer (New York) the new majority leader.

“If this holds up,” wrote Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, “…the consequences could affect as many as five Senate races, six state legislatures and redistricting of over 90 House seats for a decade."

Why is the correlation so strong in this modern electorate? “One obvious reason is that straight-ticket voting is on the rise,” he added. “As we become more polarized, party preference overwhelms other considerations.”

Mr Wang’s model has Biden winning 369 electoral votes, substantially higher than the required 270. It also estimates the polls would have to move in the direction of Mr Trump by an average of 6.0 points in the next three weeks to make the race a toss-up.

The FiveThirtyEight model, that focuses on state polling and weights them for accuracy, has Biden winning in 86 per cent of the 40,000 simulations. The most frequent of these outcomes has Biden north of 400 electoral votes.

The 2020 Forecast averages 35 models and has the Biden win probability at 82.9 per cent.

What’s becoming increasingly interesting is that the betting models have barely moved the past couple of weeks as the support in polls for President Trump has seemingly collapsed. Bettors still give the incumbent about a 39 per cent implied chance for a second term. That's at least twice what the polling models forecast. Why the difference?

“This suggests the betting markets think there are other factors — outside of polling error and October surprises — which could lead to a Trump win,” Taegan Goddard of Political Wire observes.

“That could mean Joe Biden dying before the election. But it could also mean Trump ‘winning’ in key states through other means — such as cheating or legal shenanigans.”

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/presidential-polls-2020-trump-freefall-115538468.html

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7 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

You're a good man, Charlie Brown.

 

5 hours ago, Johnny Dinar said:

freefall is going to cost GOP

In the meantime, back at the ranch, we see this:

Sleepy Joe Biden Speaks to an Audience of 10 People – and Two Dozen Reporters in Pembroke Pines, Florida

EkOgXwqWsAYs2jA-360x188.jpg

 

and this:

Supporters Line Up in the Rain 9 Hours Before President Trump’s Rally in Pennsylvania

IMG_5340-360x188.jpg

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/

 

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12 minutes ago, bigwave said:

 

sleepy Joe said he's running for the senate another miscue hes got to be senile

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Because senators tend to vote along party lines and a majority vote is required to pass legislation, the Senate majorities often determine which bills get passed on the chamber floor.

In order to gain a Senate majority, Democrats will likely have to win in Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina, according to The Washington Post. Cory Gardner of Colorado is likely to be the “most vulnerable” Republican senator, according to the outlet.

Oddsmakers predict that Alabama’s Senate seat will flip to Republican while Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa’s seats is likely flip to the Democrats.

Here are the betting odds for some key Senate races, according to data released Monday by Bookies.us.

Alabama:

Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville has 1/8 odds, meaning that betting $800 will give back $100 in profit. Tuberville is favored to beat incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, who has 9/2 odds.

Arizona:

Betting odds show Arizona’s seat will flip from Republican to Democrat, with Republican incumbent Martha McSally having 7/2 odds and Mark Kelly have 1/6 odds.

Colorado:

Oddsmakers say Democrat John Hickenlooper with 1/7 odds will defeat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner with 4/1 odds.

Iowa:

Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is the favorite to win with 4/5 odds, narrowly beating out Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, who has 10/11 odds.

Kentucky:

Oddsmakers say Kentucky is likely to remain under Republican control, as incumbent Mitch McConnell with 1/8 odds is heavily favored to beat Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, who has 9/2 odds.

Maine:

Democratic challenger Sara Gideon is favored to win the election with 4/11 odds, beating out Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who has 2/1 odds.

North Carolina:

Democrat Cal Cunningham has 4/6 odds of winning and is favored to beat Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who has 11/10 odds.

South Carolina:

Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is favored to keep his Senate seat with 4/9 odds, likely defeating Democrat Jaime Harrison, who has 13/8 odds.

Those predictions also line up with the odds released by Bookmaker, another betting site. For instance, McSally has +422 odds of winning compared to Kelly with -585 odds. That means wagering $100 would yield $422 for McSally while you’d have to bet $585 in order to win $100 for Kelly, since his win is more likely.

Bookmaker also has Ernst and Greenfield neck-to-neck in Iowa with Greenfield being the slight favorite. Ernst has -114 odds while Greenfield has -106

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/senate-seats-likely-flip-election-195705105.html

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16 hours ago, Mary B said:

 

sleepy Joe said he's running for the senate another miscue hes got to be senile

 

For somebody who's senile, Joe sure handed Donald his arse at the first debate.....In fact, Donald's childish behavior managed to make Joe look like a Rhodes Scholar.....70 plus schoolyard interruptions.  :shakehead:

 

GO RV, then BV

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Biden leads Trump by 17 points as election race enters final stage

 

David Smith in Washington

Tue, October 13, 2020, 4:28 PM EDT
 
 
<span>Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images</span>
Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has surged to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian opinion poll shows.

Related: Amy Coney Barrett faces questions on legal record as nomination hearings continue – live

Some 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden, while just 40% say they will vote for the incumbent president, the survey shows.

The 17-point gap is even bigger than than 57%-41% margin found by CNN earlier this month. It is just short of the lead in the popular vote that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory in 1984. Four years later, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis led George HW Bush by 17 points only to suffer defeat, but that poll was taken in July so Bush had ample time to recover.

 

With election day just three weeks away and millions of votes already cast, some Republicans fear a rout in the races for the presidency, Senate and House of Representatives. Ed Rollins, who advises a pro-Trump super political action committee, told the New York Times: “The president’s political environment is terrible. It’s an uphill battle.”

Asked by the Times if Trump can still turn things around, Rollins replied: “It’s cooked.”

Opinium’s findings for the Guardian suggest that a hectic month that saw the death of the supreme court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Trump’s disastrous debate performance and a White House outbreak of coronavirus that infected the president himself swung the pendulum decisively in Democrats’ favour.

Biden has gained five percentage points among undecided voters since September. Democrats also injected momentum into existing supporters, with voters for Biden now more likely to turn out, up from 75% in September to 82% this month.

The former vice-president now leads on healthcare, race relations, jobs and even the economy (45% to 43%), usually seen as Trump’s signature issue. His reputation as a successful businessman took a hit from a New York Times investigation into his tax affairs.

The research also exposes some key differences from the 2016 election when Trump edged out Hillarious Clinton in the electoral college.

Both Trump and Clinton were historically unpopular. The president again has a negative approval rating of -11%, with two in five (42%) strongly disapproving of how he is handling the presidency. But this time Biden has a strong positive approval rating of +18%. More than half (52%) of voters approve of his handling of his campaign.

Clinton also fared poorly on sexism-charged questions of “likability” and which candidate would voters rather go for a beer with. But in 2020 voters say Biden is more likable than Trump by a 57% to 32% margin.

And whereas Trump’s “Crooked Hillarious” label and allegations seemed to stick, his attempts to portray Biden as mentally unstable appear to be falling short. In fact, voters say Biden, 77, has better mental stamina than 74-year-old Trump by a 48% to 44% margin.

Opinium surveyed 2,003 US adults aged 18 or over from 8 to 12 October. Interviews were conducted online and sampled and weighted to match the demographics of the US adult population as well as factoring in education level and past vote in recent elections.

Trump with the first lady before the first presidential debate in Cleveland. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night.
Trump with the first lady before the first presidential debate in Cleveland. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters

Trump’s core support is notoriously loyal, and still turning out at his resurrected campaign rallies, but there is evidence of some Americans turning against him, even in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Nearly two in three (62%) of ex-Trump voters (who voted for him in 2016 but will not do so this year) say his handling of the coronavirus pandemic is the reason they switched their vote. In addition, almost half (47%) of ex-Trump voters say his personality and behaviour contributed to the switch.

Democrats have said a massive victory is the surest way to avoid lengthy legal disputes that could even spill over into street violence. Trump has spent months seeking to undermine the credibility of the election in general and mail-in voting in particular.

Opinium found that Biden’s lead relies on the success of mail-in voting, likely to hit record levels during the pandemic. Some 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump while 42% intend to vote for Biden. But when it comes to mail-in voters, 75% intend to vote for Biden and only 22% intend to vote for Trump.

As a result, America may witness a so-called “red mirage” in which Trump appears to be winning based on the early count of in-person votes, only to be overtaken by Biden’s mail-in ballots hours or day later. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night.

There are fears that Trump will use that time to spread conspiracy theories and declare victory. Half (50%) of voters are worried that if the president loses the election, he will not concede. There is a partisan divide: two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters are worried that the election will be rigged.

In the meantime, Republicans are racing to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court before election day. More than half (55%) of Americans think the court would become skewed towards a conservative viewpoint if Barrett joined it. A third (32%) think it will become “very conservative”.

Subsequently, two in five (41%) think the new court would vote to overturn Roe v Wade, the landmark ruling that legalised abortion nationwide. This is despite a plurality of support for the ruling (45%).

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-leads-trump-17-points-202854347.html

 

GO RV, then BV

Edited by Shabibilicious
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"Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has surged to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian opinion poll shows."

 

Good find Shabs......"Opinium Research"....is that a like concept to that KristiD's Hopeium thread here on DV?

 

In the case of the 17 pt. spread in this article it seems to me the Opinium people illustrate a great deal of hopeium....if you get my drift...     CL

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9 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

"Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has surged to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian opinion poll shows."

 

Good find Shabs......"Opinium Research"....is that a like concept to that KristiD's Hopeium thread here on DV?

 

In the case of the 17 pt. spread in this article it seems to me the Opinium people illustrate a great deal of hopeium....if you get my drift...     CL

 

2 minutes ago, DinarDavo said:

 

Surprised spell check didn't catch this... should read, "Opium Research"......or translated, "Pipe Dream Research" :D

 

I don't write 'em, fellas....I just post 'em.  B)

 

GO RV, then BV

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Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Biden (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 9/30 - 10/13 -- -- 51.4 42.2 Biden +9.2
Rasmussen 10/7 - 10/13 2500 LV 2.0 50 45 Biden +5
YouGov 10/11 - 10/13 1333 LV 4.3 52 42 Biden +10
IBD/TIPP 10/9 - 10/13 866 LV 3.4 50 43 Biden +7
JTN/RMG* 10/8 - 10/10 1240 LV 2.8 51 43 Biden +8
ABC/WP 10/6 - 10/9 725 LV 4.0 55 43 Biden +12
The Hill 10/3 - 10/6 2841 RV 1.8 45 40 Biden +5
FOX News 10/3 - 10/6 1012 LV 3.0 53 43 Biden +10
Reuters 10/2 - 10/6 882 LV 3.8 52 40 Biden +12
CNBC* 10/2 - 10/4 2167 LV 2.1 52 42 Biden +10
USC 9/30 - 10/13 5257 LV -- 54 41 Biden +13

 

 

 

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Joe Biden Speech from Las Vegas Voter Drive- In Event

 

Horn in the background are Trump supporters..30 people show up

 

Ben O
2 days ago
Only attacks Trumps no plan for anyone else and yet 47 years of no progress

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