Latest polls

[Johnny Dinar]

Battleground States

These states could reasonably be won by either candidate.

Arizona

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	45.5
Joe Biden	48.2	+2.7

Poll last updated on 10/9/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   49.0%

Hillarious Clinton45.5%

Florida

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	44.3
Joe Biden	48.0	+3.7

Poll last updated on 10/8/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   49.0%

Hillarious Clinton47.8%

Georgia

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	47.3	+0.6
Joe Biden	46.7

Poll last updated on 10/9/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   51.0%

Hillarious Clinton45.9%

Iowa

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	45.8
Joe Biden	47.2	+1.4

Poll last updated on 10/7/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   51.7%

Hillarious Clinton42.2%

Maine

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	39.0
Joe Biden	51.8	+12.8

Poll last updated on 10/6/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump45.0%

Hillarious Clinton   48.0%

Michigan

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	42.7
Joe Biden	49.4	+6.7

Poll last updated on 10/8/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   47.6%

Hillarious Clinton47.4%

Minnesota

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	41.0
Joe Biden	50.4	+9.4

Poll last updated on 9/26/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump45.3%

Hillarious Clinton   46.9%

Nevada

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	43.7
Joe Biden	49.7	+6.0

Poll last updated on 10/8/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump45.5%

Hillarious Clinton   47.9%

New Hampshire

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	43.0
Joe Biden	52.0	+9.0

Poll last updated on 10/8/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump47.2%

Hillarious Clinton   47.6%

New Mexico

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	39.0
Joe Biden	53.5	+14.5

Poll last updated on 10/6/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump40.0%

Hillarious Clinton   48.3%

North Carolina

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	46.9
Joe Biden	48.3	+1.4

Poll last updated on 10/6/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   50.5%

Hillarious Clinton46.8%

Ohio

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	46.2
Joe Biden	46.8	+0.6

Poll last updated on 10/7/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   51.8%

Hillarious Clinton43.7%

Pennsylvania

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	43.9
Joe Biden	51.0	+7.1

Poll last updated on 10/9/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   48.6%

Hillarious Clinton47.9%

Texas

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	49.2	+4.4
Joe Biden	44.8

Poll last updated on 10/9/20

2016 Final Results: Trump Won

Donald Trump   52.5%

Hillarious Clinton43.5%

Virginia

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	40.3
Joe Biden	51.3	+11.0

Poll last updated on 9/24/20

2016 Final Results: Clinton Won

Donald Trump44.8%

Hillarious Clinton   50.2%

Wisconsin

Candidates	Latest polls	Spread
Donald Trump	44.0
Joe Biden	49.5	+5.5

[Johnny Dinar]

Joe Biden has 66% of Texas Latino vote, new poll shows

A University of Houston-Univision News poll released Tuesday found Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leading with 66 percent of the Latino vote in Texas, compared to 25 percent for President Donald Trump.

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Joe-Biden-has-66-of-Texas-Latino-vote-new-poll-15606555.php

[Johnny Dinar]

Most Cuban American voters identify as Republican in 2020

Unlike other Hispanic registered voters in the United States, most Cuban Americans identify as Republican – a pattern that could have electoral implications as President Donald Trump seeks to recapture the important swing state of Florida this year.

Nationwide, 58% of Cuban registered voters say they affiliate with or lean toward the Republican Party, while 38% identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 27-Aug. 2. By comparison, around two-thirds of Hispanic voters who are not Cuban (65%) identify as or lean Democratic, while 32% affiliate with the Republican Party.

Historically, Cuban Americans have backed the Republican Party in large numbers, but that support has at times softened as a new generation of U.S.-born, Democratic-leaning Cubans has come of age. In 2013, similar shares of Cuban registered voters identified with the Republican Party (47%) and the Democratic Party (44%). That same year, 60% of non-Cuban Hispanic voters identified as Democratic and 28% as Republican.

How we did this

As of 2018, the U.S. was home to 1.4 million Cuban eligible voters – defined as adult U.S. citizens – according to a Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Most (55%) were naturalized citizens who were born outside the U.S., and 65% lived in Florida. In 2018, Cubans (29%) and Puerto Ricans (27%) accounted for the largest Hispanic eligible voter populations in Florida, reflecting a Hispanic electorate in the state that has grown more diverse over the decades. The Cuban share was down from 49% in 1980.

Cubans in Florida have helped make the state’s Latino vote different from that of the nation overall. In 2016, 54% of Cubans in Florida voted for Donald Trump, compared with 35% of the state’s Latino voters overall and 28% of Latinos nationwide, according to exit polls. (A Pew Research Center study of the 2016 electorate based on validated voters found similar voting patterns among Latinos nationwide.)

Turnout among Cuban Americans has regularly been one of the highest among Hispanic eligible voter groups. In 2016, 58% of Cubans voted, compared with 55% of Dominicans, 49% of Salvadorans, 46% of Puerto Ricans and 44% of Mexicans, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data. The voter turnout rate for Latino eligible voters overall was 48%.

Since taking office in 2017, Trump has imposed several sanctions on Cuba, including restrictions on trade, travel and remittances, reversing the Obama administration’s expansion of diplomatic and economic ties with the island nation. By contrast, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has said he would largely restore Obama-era policies toward Cuba.

Cuban American voters and the 2020 presidential election

Cuban American registered voters have mixed views of Trump heading into the November elections. About half (52%) say they approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while 45% disapprove. By comparison, only 26% of non-Cuban Hispanic voters approve of Trump and 70% disapprove. Trump’s ratings among these groups are nearly identical to those in a December 2019 national survey of Latino adults, taken before the coronavirus outbreak.

Cuban voters’ assessments of Trump are deeply polarized along party lines: 81% of Cuban Republicans approve of Trump, while 91% of Cuban Democrats disapprove of the president. Trump’s approval ratings are similarly partisan – and stable – among U.S. voters overall.

Most Cuban American registered voters say they are tuned in to the 2020 presidential campaign. Three-quarters (75%) say they have given a lot or some thought to the candidates running for president, with similar shares of Republicans and Democrats saying so.

Among Cuban voters, the prospect of a Trump victory provokes stronger reactions – both positive and negative – than the prospect of a Biden victory. About one-in-five Cuban voters (19%) say they would feel excited if Trump was reelected, and an equal share (19%) say they would feel angry. Another 34% say they would feel relieved by a Trump victory, while 26% would feel disappointed. By contrast, only 10% of Cuban voters say they would feel excited if Biden was elected, and 12% say they would feel angry. Meanwhile, 34% would feel relieved and 41% would feel disappointed by a Biden win.

The vast majority of Cuban American registered voters say the issues of the economy (88%) and health care (80%) are very important to their vote for president in 2020, the highest shares among the 12 issues included in the survey. While Cubans hold similar views to non-Cuban Hispanics (and U.S. Hispanics overall) on the importance of these two issues, the groups have different views in some areas. Most notably, a far higher share of Cuban voters than non-Cuban Hispanic voters say foreign policy is very important, 76% vs. 45%, reflecting in part the close immigrant ties many Cuban Americans have to the island. Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanic voters also differ on the importance of the issue of violent crime in their vote for president (78% vs. 62%).

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/02/most-cuban-american-voters-identify-as-republican-in-2020/

[MyLadiesDaddy]

Let me educate all the people with Bad/Attitudes how these things work

 

 

 

Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?

Leib Litman, PhD

By Leib Litman, PhD, Zohn Rosen, PhD, Cheskie Rosenzweig, MS, Aaron Moss, PhD, Adam Dietrich, & Jonathan Robinson, PhD

Background

Lately, there’s been considerable debate over the accuracy of presidential polls. While recent polls show Joe Biden ahead, a number of pundits speculate that some Donald Trump supporters may be hesitant to share their true opinions when polled by phone. That hypothesis is gaining traction, leading some to argue that Trump may be leading despite what the latest numbers show. It’s also being fueled by the belief that 2020 will be a repeat of the 2016 election, when Trump polled poorly in advance of the election, but still went on to win the Electoral College vote. 

Despite the current debate on whether there are segments of Trump (or Biden) backers reticent to express their true opinions in phone polls, there’s been little empirical investigation into if the phenomenon actually exists. Pundits on major broadcast and cable news networks, such as Fox News and CNN, continue to speculate on the potential impact of so-called “shy Trump voters” on the outcome of the November presidential election result.  In a recent article published in The New York Times, David Winston says the following: 

“The idea that people lie, it’s an interesting theory, and it’s not like it’s completely off-the-wall. But it’s obviously a very complicated thing to try to prove because what do you do? Ask them, ‘Are you lying?’”

On its face, a poll that asks people whether they lie in phone polls may not make much sense. After all, why would a person who lies in a telephone poll tell the truth about that in a different online poll? We here at CloudResearch reasoned that the issue may be methodological.

To explore this issue, we structured our survey to overcome shortcomings of previous polls. Instead of simply asking voters whom they will vote for — and then ask whether they just lied — we centered our research around a general question: “Are you comfortable in truthfully disclosing the presidential candidate you intend to vote for in a telephone poll?” Our rationale for this approach was that there’s a major difference between admitting you just lied and admitting to being genuinely concerned about disclosing your preferred candidate. 

For the most part, we expected to find very few “shy voters.” After all, telephone surveys are supposed to be anonymous, so why would people be reluctant to share their opinions? However, to the extent people said that they were reluctant to express their voting preferences on a telephone poll, we were interested in their rationale for their reluctance. As a result, we included open-ended follow-up questions to better understand the factors that drive voters to fudge their responses. Our survey was conducted with 1,000 participants on CloudResearch’s Prime Panels platform, which draws from a combination of online research panels.

---

What CloudResearch Found

• 11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls. 
• In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls. 
• 10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.  

After asking about people expressing their true opinions on telephone calls, we then inquired about their preferred candidate. This ordering was important as we did not want to fall into the same trap as other pollsters who tend to lead with preference declarations. When we broke the responses down based on current Trump vs Biden supporters, we found the following:

• 10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on phone surveys — double the number of Biden supporters (5.1%) reticent to share their true intentions.

When respondents indicated that they were untruthful during polls, we followed up to confirm those responses, and then inquired as to why “shy voters” are concerned about sharing their voting intentions. Some example responses are below. These are just a representational sampling of viewpoints that we collected — sentiments not easy to gauge by responses to mere yes/no questions. 

“I don’t believe the information would be confidential and I think it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint.”

“Well I probably wouldn’t give my opinion period, but if pushed, I would not give my real opinion for fear of reprisal if someone found out.”

“Because most polls released to the public are slanted and aren’t scientifically based. So, they are messing with the results of the survey from the beginning by knocking down one party or the other. I’m just trying to right the ship.”

“I am hounded day and evening by phone solicitors.  They interrupt me all the time; sometimes my irritation takes over, and I don’t answer correctly.”

“My answers could be recorded so I don’t really trust such phone conversations.”

“I do not discuss politics — let alone with a total stranger on the telephone.”

“I don’t always trust phone call surveys. I wouldn’t want to be bombarded with phone calls and political mail.”

“I don’t want my opinion associated with my phone number.”

“I am less anonymous, and somewhat ashamed of my opinion as it is frowned upon.”

---

In General, “Shy Voters” Cited Six Concerns: 

1. A lack of trust in phone polls as truly being anonymous. 

2. An apprehension to associate their phone numbers with recorded responses.

3. Fear that their responses will become public in some manner.

4. Fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social, and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known. 

5. A general dislike of phone polls. 

6. Malicious intent to mislead polls due to general distrust of media and political pundits (though a sentiment expressed only by a few “shy voters”). 

Such concerns were more often than not expressed by Republicans and Independents, and also by those who said they would vote for Donald Trump. Democrats and Biden supporters lagged both groups in terms of being concerned that their voting intentions would be shared with others. 

However, our survey findings — that show a greater reluctance on the part of Republicans, Independents and Trump voters to disclose their opinions — should not be interpreted as outright lying. Rather, such reluctance seems to stem from a  lack of trust in the anonymity of polls and a fear of the consequences if their opinions were to become public. 

The results could have implications in terms of the true accuracy of phone polls; if Republicans, Independents and supporters of Donald Trump (regardless of party affiliation) are less likely to participate in polls or accurately disclose the candidate they support, that inherently generates biased poll outcomes.

Given razor thin-margins in the swing states, such bias may have important consequences, although more research is required to fully understand the potential magnitude of this effect. We intend to examine the magnitude of “shy-voter bias” in specific states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin over the coming weeks. 

The results of our survey also illustrate the primary concerns that pollsters may need to address to allay voters about the level of anonymity and privacy of phone polling. We’ll also examine these issues and potential remedies in future research.

Check out coverage of this research in Bloomberg.

---

Methodology

Sample 

Interviews were collected from two national online sample waves of 1,000 registered voters (2000 respondents in total), matched to U.S. Census data on gender, age, race, and region. Data were collected August 19 – 27, 2020 using CloudResearch’s Prime Panels, a platform that incorporates data quality checks in sample recruitment and sources participants from an aggregate of online research panels (Chandler et al., 2019). The two waves differed from each other in terms of how quotas were set. In the first sample, the full sample was matched to the U.S. Census and the sample was equally split between Republicans, Democrats and Independents. In the second wave, rather than matching the entire sample to the U.S. Census, each political party was matched to the demographic quotas appropriate for that party. The results presented above are for the first wave of participants, although the overall findings were similar across both waves. Specifically, in Wave 2, 10.5% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on phone surveys compared to 4.6% of Biden supporters.

Survey Design 

Prior to entering the survey, all respondents were screened for attentiveness and English language comprehension. Following the screening process a responsive verification protocol was used, consisting of multiple interactive interview steps. Step 1 – Respondents were first asked one of two randomly assigned questions: Q1 – “Given today’s charged political environment, if you were asked in an automated telephone poll (also called “Interactive Voice Response” or “IVR”), would you give your true opinion about which presidential candidate you are likely to vote for?”. Q2 – “Given today’s charged political environment, if you were asked by a telephone interviewer, would you give your true opinion about which presidential candidate you are likely to vote for?”. We also wanted to compare how comfortable respondents are in responding to telephone polls, compared to online and in-person polls. We therefore also asked the same question about phone interviews, online surveys, and in-person polls, presented next to each other in the same grid. The response options to all questions were: 1. “I would definitely express my true opinion”, 2. “I would probably express my true opinion”, 3. “I would probably not express my true opinion” and 4. “I would definitely not express my true opinion”.

Step 2 – For those who indicated that they would not provide their true opinion on either question from Step 1 (i.e. responded with options 3 or 4), a follow-up question was asked: “On a previous question, you indicated that you may not express your true opinion over the phone about which presidential candidate you support. Sometimes people click on a button by accident, so we just wanted to verify your response. Are you hesitant to disclose your support for a presidential candidate on a phone survey?”. The response options to the verification questions were as follows: 1) “I most likely would not express my true opinion about which presidential candidate I support on a phone survey.” 2) “I most likely would express my true opinion about which presidential candidate I support on a phone survey.” Only people who verified their response in Step 2 were counted as being reluctant to share their opinion about which presidential candidate they would support on a phone survey. 

Step 3 – Those who verified their response in Step 2, were prompted to provide more context about their answer on an open-ended response :”Can you explain why not? Specifically, why would you most likely not express your true opinion in a phone survey?”. 

Statistical Analysis

We evaluated the association between support for a presidential candidate and reluctance to share opinions on phone surveys (phone sharing reluctance) using logistic regression-based modeling. We began by looking at a simple bivariate association between which candidate the respondents supported  and phone sharing reluctance. We found that Trump supporters are significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters (Trump (10.1%) vs Biden (5.4%), p. < .001.  

The association between which candidate the respondents supported and phone sharing reluctance may, however, be confounded by a number of demographic factors such as age and education. To address these potential confounds, we modeled the association between which candidate the respondents supported and phone sharing reluctance with the inclusion of multiple demographic covariates in the logistic regression model, including gender, age, race, ethnicity (as per the methodology adopted by the US Census, Latino/a ethnicity was measured separately from race and was thus entered as a separate covariate in the regression model), marital status, family composition,  education, and region. Heteroskedasticity was controlled in the regression model by using robust standard errors.  

Even after the inclusion of the covariates in the model, Trump supporters were significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters (p. < .001). 

Limitations

As with all studies, there are several possible limitations to the conclusions one can draw from this study as well. First, we used a nonprobability sampling frame, which means the results of this study may not generalize to the whole population. This remains true despite the fact that we replicated the main findings in this report across two samples that were recruited with quotas set to match the demographics of the U.S. population (Study 1) and quotas set to match the demographics of voters within each political party (Study 2). Additionally, it is important to remember that this is self-report data, which may not perfectly align with people’s real world behavior.

 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

I  can play this game all night, Johnny boy. 

 

 

 

[yota691]

6 minutes ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

I  can play this game all night, Johnny boy. 

Come on Man ...Fact's show Republican out registering New Voter's by Huge # all over, especially Key states

[wildeman]

You gotta vote though. Don't vote, don't complain. 

[yota691]

4 minutes ago, wildeman said:

You gotta vote though. Don't vote, don't complain.

I agree

 

Newly register voters take the time to go register, they are more then likely take the time to VOTE!!

[Pepperina]

The Zogby Poll®: New Trump Job Approval Rating; Most Voters support Term Limits for Congress

 

https://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news/958-the-zogby-poll-new-trump-job-approval-rating-most-voters-support-term-limits-for-congress

 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

11 minutes ago, Pepperina said:

The Zogby Poll®: New Trump Job Approval Rating; Most Voters support Term Limits for Congress

 

https://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news/958-the-zogby-poll-new-trump-job-approval-rating-most-voters-support-term-limits-for-congress

 

I love this people, let's keep it going. Bring all your polls here. 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

Not one person showed up 

[caddieman]

Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/biden-best-position-challenger/index.html

[caddieman]

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday found Biden ahead by 12 points nationally among likely voters (55%-43%), the third national poll to find Biden ahead by double digits this week.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/10/11/todays-2020-election-polls-biden-is-in-a-much-stronger-polling-position-than-Hillarious/#29629da027f9

[caddieman]

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

 

Who's ahead in national polls?

DEMOCRAT

BIDEN

52%

REPUBLICAN

TRUMP

 

 

[Pitcher]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november
 

Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November

With the help of Paul Hoffmeister, chief economist at Camelot Portfolios

With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.

Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average.

 

And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.

It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.

In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."

It’s very possible that Trump will win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If so, a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college. And speaking of "shocking", Camelot notes that as far as the Senate and House are concerned, it also appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate, especially if Trump has a strong night. On the other hand, the House is highly likely to remain in Democratic control.

First, a few quick notes, on what happened over the past four years, and a look at the "Market Narrative" of Trump's presidency prior to Covid-19:

 

• In 2017, the S&P 500 rallied in a relatively consistent fashion; due primarily, in our view, to the tailwinds of major deregulation and tax cuts.
• Contrary to warnings that a Trump presidency would lead to a market crash, most notably by Paul Krugman, the S&P has returned 57.7% since President Trump’s election in 2016 (November 7, 2016 through October 6, 2020) – not including dividends.

Fast forward to today, when according to online betting site PredictIt.org, the probability of Democrats winning White House 63%, win Senate 66%, win House 88% (here, a question should be asked: since the contracts are relatively illiquid, is there one or more major players who have "cornered" the PredictIt market and are swaying public opinion with relatively low sums of cash).

 

Next, we look at the Electoral College Map after the 2016 election:

 

• In 2016, Secretary of State Clinton received 65,853514 votes, or 48.2% of the popular vote. Donald Trump received 62,984,828 votes, or 46.1%. (source: Federal Election Commission)
• In terms of the electoral college, however, Trump handily beat Clinton with 306 votes versus 232 for Clinton. (source: Business Insider)
• Trump won the key swing states in the Rust Belt: PA, OH, MI and WI.
• And, Trump won the key swing states of FL, NC and  AZ.

This outcome was not predicted by virtually any pollster in 2016, when most of the major polls were wrong, but not all:

 

Among these major polls, Clinton led Trump by 3.2% during the week prior to Election Day. More accurate pollsters incorporated likely voters and attempted to adjust for ‘shy voters’.

Trafalgar Group was named best polling firm of 2016 presidential race. It was one of few pollsters to predict Trump would win PA and MI (sources: Trafalgar Group and RealClearPolitics) and also Trump's victory. This is what Politico wrote in its post-election mea culpa about the Trafalgar Group:

The signs of a polling disaster were all there, but almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention.

There were surveys showing Trump winning, but they were ignored by most news outlets, dismissed as partisan polls conducted using automated phone technology that eschews calling cell-phone users.

the state polling this year was sparse, especially in the closing days. Of the 11 states POLITICO identified as Electoral College battlegrounds earlier this year, four of them didn’t see a nonpartisan, public, live-interview poll for the final week of the campaign: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Taken together, it was a recipe for an epic polling failure.

* * *

Few, it seems, paid attention to the surveys from the Trafalgar Group – a Georgia-based consulting firm that, on its website, celebrates the time RealClearPolitics picked up one of its Florida primary polls – showing Trump ahead. The group’s Pennsylvania poll was the only one of dozens since late July to show the GOP nominee in the lead there – but it was also the only poll conducted into this past weekend, as voters made their final choices.

The Trafalgar Group was somewhat prolific on Monday, the day before the election, releasing surveys in Florida (Trump ahead by 4 points), Michigan (Trump ahead by 2 points) and Georgia (Trump ahead by 7 points).

At a time when the polling industry was crushed by its collectively incompetence, the praise for Trafalgar continued:

The secret to Trafalgar's success is that it best adjusted its polling to include ‘shy Trump voters’ and the votes missed in other polls. Democracy Institute also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as Brexit.

Which brings us to today, and what Camelot Portfolios sees as the likely firewall states for Trump and Biden:

 

Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:

 

 

NEVER MISS THE NEWS THAT MATTERS MOST

 

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What about the the "winner" in the 2016 polling fiasco, the Democracy Institute, and its Latest Poll for September:

• Only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called ‘shy votes’.
• Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally.
• Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%.
• Trump’s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218.
• 77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family.
• Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters.
• Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%).
• Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively

But wait, there's more shocks, because according to Camelot, Republicans are also likely to retain their control of the Senate.

• Current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents.
• 35 Senate seats up for grabs.
• 23 seats are held by Republicans; 12 held by Democrats.
• Republicans at disadvantage; need to protect more seats.
• Most vulnerable incumbents are in: Alabama (Jones-D), Colorado (Gardner-R), Maine (Collins-R), Michigan (Peters-D).
• Assuming Trump polling in these four states will determine the Senate race: Republicans likely to pick up AL, Democrats likely to pick up CO and Maine – for net gain of one seat in Senate.
• Outlier Scenarios: Trafalgar polling shows Republican in Michigan (John James) with slight lead; and Democrat in North Carolina with slight lead.
• Likely November: Republicans keep Senate control with 52 seats.

Finally, in what may be the worst possible news for markets which are now convinced a blue sweep is inevitable, Camelot says that Democrats will continue their dominance in the House, where they have a clear advantage:

• 2016: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +0.6 near Election Day -> Final was Republicans +1.1 -> GOP lost 6 seats; maintained majority 241-194
• 2018: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +7.3 near Election Day -> Final was Democrats +8.4 -> Democrats gained 41 seats; retook majority 235-199
• 2020: RealClearPolitics Average has Democrats +6.0 during the last week.

Readers curious for more can register for the next Camelot call, which will take place next Tuesday, Oct 13at the following link.

[cranman]

With margins that narrow there will be very little chance of sides agreeing  on the outcome.

 

I see riots,  demand for recount and overall trouble happening. 

[Pepperina]

                             This one is created by Kevin McCullough.  
                               He predicted  Trump would Win in 2016.

[Shabibilicious]

2016 was quite a shock, that's for sure....the polls were way off, as the silent Trump supporters kept to themselves until election day.  It's obvious that that is no longer the case....Trump flags everywhere out here in the sticks.  People are proud to shout their support for their given candidate.  The silent Trump supporters are out of the closet, loud and proud....So with that in mind, it would seem the polls are much more accurate this time around.  As always, just my honest opinion.

 

GO RV, then BV

[MyLadiesDaddy]

1 hour ago, Shabibilicious said:

2016 was quite a shock, that's for sure....the polls were way off, as the silent Trump supporters kept to themselves until election day.  It's obvious that that is no longer the case....Trump flags everywhere out here in the sticks.  People are proud to shout their support for their given candidate.  The silent Trump supporters are out of the closet, loud and proud....So with that in mind, it would seem the polls are much more accurate this time around.  As always, just my honest opinion.

 

GO RV, then BV

That's some pretty messed up logic right there. 

[coorslite21]

Thinking there will be a game changer prior to election day....Biden or Trump could go off the rails on something.....turning voters elsewhere...

Indictments may be filed right after the SC vote is approved.....

Pelosi said she had many arrows in her quiver......guess we'll see what Trump has in his arsenal?     CL

 

[Shabibilicious]

11 minutes ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

That's some pretty messed up logic right there. 

 

Perhaps I should type slower next time for those lagging behind.  

 

GO RV, then BV

[Shabibilicious]

5 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

Thinking there will be a game changer prior to election day....Biden or Trump could go off the rails on something.....turning voters elsewhere...

Indictments may be filed right after the SC vote is approved.....

Pelosi said she had many arrows in her quiver......guess we'll see what Trump has in his arsenal?     CL

 

 

Seems Donald is pretty pissed that the Durham report won't be ready by election time.....Think he'll pressure Barr to release it as is?

 

GO RV, then BV

[Johnny Dinar]

People in the GOP, White House, and Trump campaign increasingly think they will lose the White House and maybe the Senate too, reports say

 

Fears are growing in the Republican Party and the White House that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, may be on course for a landslide victory in the US election, according to multiple reports.

The weekend brought further gloomy polling data for the Trump campaign, with a poll released Sunday from ABC News and The Washington Post finding Biden leading Trump 53% to 41% among likely voters.

The result matched trends in a series of other recent polls that found the president trailing Biden by 10 points or more.

Swing-state polls brought more bad news, with Biden continuing to hold leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, according to data compiled by The New York Times — three states that flipped to the Republicans in 2016.

 

 

Though the races in these states are tighter, Biden's lead has been consistent. It led to a rash of bad headlines prompted by worried insiders:

• Citing dozens of White House and Trump campaign officials, the Associated Press on Monday described fears that Trump's widely criticized first debate performance with Biden and erratic response after being diagnosed with COVID-19 could see them lose not just the White House but also the Senate.
• NBC News on Friday reported that Republican donors and operatives worried a "blue wave" was coming. They are said to favor shifting resources from the presidential race — seen by some as a lost cause — to protecting vulnerable seats in Congress.
• GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas on Saturday warned that the GOP faced "a bloodbath of Watergate proportions" and could lose control of the Senate and the White House.
• Reuters also last week reported that the GOP was increasingly anxious that the Democrats were poised to seize control of the Senate. A senior Senate Republican aide told the outlet that Trump's coronavirus diagnosis was "the nail in the coffin" and that "it's all over" for the party's hopes of defending its majority.

Though Trump's prospects of victory appear to be fading, some campaign officials believe the president will able to claw back ground this week, the AP reported.

The Senate confirmation hearings of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, set to begin Monday, are expected to take focus away from the pandemic and fire up conservatives.

 

Other officials hope that pollsters are undercounting the level of support for Trump and that he will end up the surprise winner as in 2016.

But so far, many loyalists seem to believe it more likely that Democrats could seize both Congress and the White House.

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-trump-insiders-fear-losing-presidency-and-senate-reports-2020-10

[coorslite21]

2 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

 

Seems Donald is pretty pissed that the Durham report won't be ready by election time.....Think he'll pressure Barr to release it as is?

 

GO RV, then BV

 

I do believe the basis of the report will be released with some indictments after the 22nd......

In the mean time Trump is capable of going off the rails at any time......while Joe is just trying to stay on the rails....  JMO.    CL