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Even Trump's favorite pollster thinks the election looks bad for him

 
Peter Weber
,
The WeekNovember 3, 2020
 
 
08e7bbb8700a2d800acc27d95590a8ce

"When President Trump talks about polling, his focus is very much on survey-takers that he thinks are good for him," Maggie Haberman reports at The New York Times. And those that show him trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden — "virtually all national polls — are simply 'fake news.'" The polls that "matter" for Trump "seem to boil down to Rasmussen Reports, which consistently — and in isolation — has a rosier picture for the president nationally than other surveys do, and the Trafalgar Group," Haberman notes.

On Monday, Scott Rasmussen said "the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect." And that data includes Rasmussen's own polling.

Rasmussen wrote at PoliticalIQ that his national polling over the past month has "consistently shown the former vice president with a 7 or 8 point advantage," much stronger than Hillarious Clinton's lead in 2016, and his final polls show Biden ahead by 7 points in Michigan, 6 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, 4 points in Florida, and 1 point in North Carolina. "Bluntly," he added, "the president cannot be re-elected without winning both" Florida and North Carolina.

Look, "if you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well, that's not really correct," Nate Silver writes in his final election forecast at FiveThirtyEight. "On the other hand, if it weren't for 2016, people might look at Joe Biden's large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president." It isn't certain — Trump could still win.

 

Trump and his advisers certainly see a path to victory, the Times reports. As Trump crams in a final flurry of rallies in swing states, he "has drawn encouragement from his larger audiences and from a stream of relatively upbeat polling information that advisers have curated for him, typically filtering out the bleakest numbers," the Times reports. That fits with Trump's "choose-your-own-adventure approach to polling that has shown little understanding of data science," Haberman adds. Trump "treats voter support as a mystical, rather than a mathematical, proposition."

 

https://news.yahoo.com/even-trumps-favorite-pollster-thinks-124649101.html

 

GO RV, then BV

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56 minutes ago, Shabibilicious said:

Even Trump's favorite pollster thinks the election looks bad for him

 
Peter Weber
,
The WeekNovember 3, 2020
 
 
08e7bbb8700a2d800acc27d95590a8ce

"When President Trump talks about polling, his focus is very much on survey-takers that he thinks are good for him," Maggie Haberman reports at The New York Times. And those that show him trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden — "virtually all national polls — are simply 'fake news.'" The polls that "matter" for Trump "seem to boil down to Rasmussen Reports, which consistently — and in isolation — has a rosier picture for the president nationally than other surveys do, and the Trafalgar Group," Haberman notes.

On Monday, Scott Rasmussen said "the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect." And that data includes Rasmussen's own polling.

Rasmussen wrote at PoliticalIQ that his national polling over the past month has "consistently shown the former vice president with a 7 or 8 point advantage," much stronger than Hillarious Clinton's lead in 2016, and his final polls show Biden ahead by 7 points in Michigan, 6 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, 4 points in Florida, and 1 point in North Carolina. "Bluntly," he added, "the president cannot be re-elected without winning both" Florida and North Carolina.

Look, "if you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well, that's not really correct," Nate Silver writes in his final election forecast at FiveThirtyEight. "On the other hand, if it weren't for 2016, people might look at Joe Biden's large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president." It isn't certain — Trump could still win.

 

Trump and his advisers certainly see a path to victory, the Times reports. As Trump crams in a final flurry of rallies in swing states, he "has drawn encouragement from his larger audiences and from a stream of relatively upbeat polling information that advisers have curated for him, typically filtering out the bleakest numbers," the Times reports. That fits with Trump's "choose-your-own-adventure approach to polling that has shown little understanding of data science," Haberman adds. Trump "treats voter support as a mystical, rather than a mathematical, proposition."

 

https://news.yahoo.com/even-trumps-favorite-pollster-thinks-124649101.html

 

GO RV, then BV

 

Scott is now an independant pollster....no longer Representative of the more well known polling operation known as Rasmussen....   CL

 

Polls are for Schmo's

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Election 2020: These 4 states ‘come in early’ and ‘Trump must win' them all: Republican pollster Frank Luntz

 

With Joe Biden’s commanding lead in the polls, President Donald Trump will have to win pretty much every toss-up state tonight and in the coming days to secure re-election.

It’s not unprecedented. That’s essentially what he did in 2016.

If we’re in for another Trump wave, Republican pollster Frank Luntz lists the 4 states to watch for the first signs of it. These states “all come in early” on Election Day and “Donald Trump has to win all four” in order to get re-elected, Luntz told Yahoo Finance.

Those 4 states are Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Georgia’s polls close first at 7:00 PM eastern time followed by North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 and Florida at 8:00.

If Trump can perform a clean sweep there, Luntz said, he’ll live to fight another day in places like Pennsylvania. But “if Joe Biden wins any of those 4 states, then Biden will win the electoral college.”

PALM BEACH, FLORIDA- NOVEMBER 03: People stand in line to vote at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center on November 03, 2020 in Palm Beach, Florida.  After a record-breaking early voting turnout, Americans head to the polls on the last day to cast their vote for incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
People stand in line to vote in Palm Beach, Florida. After a record-breaking early voting turnout, Americans head to the polls on the last da (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The states are among the first closing on Tuesday but, more importantly, they have already been counting the wave of absentee ballots that have come in as Americans adjust to voting during a pandemic. Georgia began processing absentee ballots on Oct. 19, and Florida has also been processing ballots for weeks.

Ohio and North Carolina are also counting absentee ballots early but with one catch: they accept ballots that arrive by mail after Election day. So if the result is lopsided, a winner could be declared quickly, but a close election could mean days of waiting for the final votes to arrive and be counted.

Luntz also said the 4 states have “relatively clean election histories.”

Some Democrats have talked about a “red mirage” where Trump’s supporters largely vote on Election Day and have their ballots counted first. The effect would be initial results that seem to show a Trump victory that fades over time.

In his 4 states, Luntz seems concerned about the opposite possibility where mail-in-ballots are reported first, leading to early advantages for Biden that then fade.

FLORIDA, USA - NOVEMBER 2:  A billboard is seen during a US President Donald Trump campaing rally at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport in Miami, Florida, United States on November 2, 2020. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui Trinkl/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
President Trump has spent considerable time in states Florida in the final days of the election (Eva Marie Uzcategui Trinkl/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Trump won all 4 states in 2016 by sizable margins but the races are much closer this time around.

Based on the final wave of polling, Florida may be Biden’s best chance to seal the election early. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has poured millions of dollars into the state to support the Biden campaign, and a final polling average has Biden at 47.9% in the state compared to 47% for Trump.

‘Pennsylvania is a mess’

One state Luntz and other observers will definitely not be putting much stock in on election night is Pennsylvania.

“Pennsylvania is a mess,” he said, pointing to the state law that doesn’t allow workers there to begin processing absentee ballots until Election Day. Pennsylvania’s top election official has promised the “overwhelming majority” of results by Friday.

Biden’s polling in Pennsylvania – while tightening lately – has remained favorable to Democrats.

“It’s going to look like tonight that Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania because the people who are voting on the day, those votes are counted first,” said Luntz.

Earlier on Yahoo Finance, former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci predicted that Trump would lose Florida: “I think this is over by 11 pm eastern time,” making Pennsylvania’s drawn-out process moot.

Luntz expects it might take a bit longer. “Take it easy, take a pill, have a drink,” he said, before quickly adding, “not at the same time.”

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/these-4-states-come-in-early-and-trump-must-win-them-all-republican-pollster-frank-luntz-180223393.html

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I Really Think This GUY Is ....RIGHT On THE MONEY
He PREDICTED TRUMP Was Going WIN In 2016
I Think HE Is SPOT ON .....With This ONE TOO‼️

 

3 hours ago, Pepperina said:

Kevin McCullough’s Updated Election Map (Nov 3, 2020).

 

More Information HERE :
https://thebingethinker.com/2020/11/what-i-think-will-happen/

 

image.thumb.jpeg.d620fcc2f5cb7196d67f3526d9149143.jpeg 

 

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41 minutes ago, Pepperina said:

I also think there’s going to be some Legal Problems with Votes in Pennsylvania.

I concur. I dont think the landslide one way or the other is going to happen. I see rough and possible violent days (in small pockets) ahead. I hope I'm wrong no matter who wins.  

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