Iraq may have just turned the corner from chaos to stability

[Butifldrm]

Iraq may have just turned the corner from chaos to stability

by Michael Rubin | Oct 24, 2017, 12:01 AM  Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Email this article Share on LinkedIn Print this article

 

Federal Iraqi security forces gather outside the Kurdish hold City of Altun Kupri, outskirts of Irbil, Iraq, Thursday Oct. 19. 2017. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed)

 

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Sitting in the United States, it's easy to give up on Iraq. Television cameras don't lie. When they capture the aftermath of terrorist bombings, beheadings, or Shiite militiamen carrying banners of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it's easy to conclude that Iraq has passed the point of no return.

Back in Washington, D.C., Democrats and Republicans use Iraq as a political football. Democrats blame Republicans for the 2003 decision to invade Iraq (despite having joined in its authorization) and most Republicans blame the Democrats for President Barack Obama's 2011 withdrawal from Iraq (even though it was President George W. Bush who committed to withdraw).

 

Lost in the political debate are the Iraqis themselves.

The Tragedy of Modern Iraq

Iraq has suffered tremendously throughout its modern history. Like its Arab counterparts, Iraq was prone to instability, especially after revolutionaries overthrew the monarchy in 1958. Still, Iraqis were comparatively better off than other Arab states. They had oil and a modern outlook. Before the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) decimated its economy, Iraq was the least corrupt of any Arab state. Saddam Hussein—once branded the great moderate hope and a man whom the Reagan administration hoped to engage — was always brutal but grew exceptionally so with time.

What little hope Iraqis had to rebuild after the Iran-Iraq War was dashed after just two years when Saddam ordered the invasion of Kuwait. While Iraqi disputes about Kuwait's sovereignty were not a creation of Saddam, the Iraqi dictator's motives had less to do with preserving Iraqi honor and more to do with robbing the bank: Kuwait was rich and Saddam needed money to pay off debts and provide patronage to senior generals and key tribes.

Recent Iraqi history is full of what-ifs. What if Saddam hadn't ordered the invasion of Iran? What if he hadn't invaded Kuwait, defied sanctions, or bluffed to his generals and the world about having weapons of mass destruction? What if Saddam hadn't charted a course leading to the 2003 U.S. invasion? Had Saddam chosen differently, Iraq today might have been as rich, if not richer, than many of its neighbors.

To suggest, however, that Iraq would have escaped chaos had it not been for the 2003 invasion is wishful thinking. Iraqi stability and security under Saddam's dictatorship is myth. The Kurds have been in a state of near-constant revolt since 1961 and while Saddam's forces controlled the cities of southern Iraq during the day, after 1991 the situation during the night was radically different.

Then there was Saddam himself: If he were alive today, he'd be more than 80 years old. If Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal was unable to secure secession in Egypt, and if President Bashar Assad was unable to maintain control in Syria, it is unlikely that Iraq would have been spared by the winds of Arab Spring buffeting the region.

Regardless, all can agree that Iraqis have suffered. Iraqi Kurds suffered decades of discrimination and ethnic cleansing culminating in the Anfal, a campaign of genocide marked by Saddam's use of chemical weapons against Kurdish civilians. The Shiites, too, suffered disproportionately. Baathism at its founding may have sought to cast religious and sectarian differences aside in pursuit of Arab nationalism, but Saddam made Arab nationalism synonymous with Sunni Arab nationalism and demonized Iraq's majority Shiite population as Iranian fifth columnists. Tens of thousands of Shiites ended up in mass graves or met their end in the Saddam-era prisons. Sunni Arabs suffered as well, but more on an individual than communal basis.

Saddam's fall, the U.S. occupation, and subsequent insurgency changed the nature of Iraqi suffering, but it did not end it. While Iraqis often blame outsiders for their fate post-liberation, they cannot avoid accountability. Contrary to Iraqi claims, Americans did not bring sectarianism to Iraqi society or government; decades of cynical dictatorship did. Nor did Americans craft the bombs which slaughtered Iraqi school children: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and Iraqi Sunni insurgents did that as well. The rise of the Islamic State? Exiled Baathist officers told me after Mosul's fall they were cooperating with its self-declared caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Nor are Kurdish leaders blameless: They cynically helped arm the Islamic State before it seized Mosul in the mistaken belief they could use the Islamic State's sectarian hatred to weaken then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Put simply, there's no shortage of blame to go around.

After the darkest night comes dawn

With so much having gone wrong, what possible grounds for optimism could there be? After 14 years of war, insurgency, and most recently Islamic State atrocities, can Iraq be put back together? My recent visit to that country gives me hope.

I'm not simply parachuting into Baghdad and drawing conclusions based on a day or two in country. I have been traveling back-and-forth to Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan for 17 years, as an employee at three different Kurdish universities, as a Pentagon official, and as a think tank analyst. I have spent several years of my adult life in Iraq. I have traveled the country from Zakho in its far north to Fao, near Iraq's southernmost tip and have walked and driven along Iraq's borders in order to get a sense of both Iraq's geography and human terrain. During my time, I have met nearly every major Iraqi political figure, pre- and post-war Iraqi generals, wanted criminals and the men pursuing them, and some of the most senior Christian, Yezidi, Sunni, and Shiite religious figures in the country.

However, what I heard in my most recent trip, which ended Oct. 20, gave me hope.

This is why: The trauma of the Islamic State has permanently altered Iraq. For the first time, Sunni Arabs have suffered as a community. Islamic State atrocities against the Shiites and Christians drove those groups out of Islamic State territory, but it was Sunni Arabs (alongside enslaved Yezidis) who suffered under the Islamic State on a daily basis. And while Americans often exaggerate sectarianism in Iraq, Iraqis have always been more nuanced. When Sunni Arab terrorists blew up a Shiite holy shrine in Samarra in 2006, for example, it was Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani who forbade Shiite militias from exacting sectarian revenge. As the Islamic State rose up in 2014, it was also Sistani who issued the calls for volunteers to help free Sunni Arab cities.

The changing Sunni mindset

With broad swaths of Iraq now freed from Islamic State terror, Sunni Arab Iraqis appear to have had three epiphanies.

First, they understand the true horror that their Shiite and Kurdish compatriots suffered under Saddam. Most no longer deny or minimize that suffering. They empathize.

Second, Sunnis see that the Shiite dominated government in Baghdad and largely Shiite militias are not necessarily adversaries. Indeed, thousands of Iraqi Shiite soldiers and volunteers lost their lives to free Sunni towns and cities.

And, third, many Iraqi Sunni Arabs have recognized the failures of their own leadership. Sunni political leaders who incited against Baghdad locally and internationally did nothing for the Sunni Arab community in their time of great crisis. The old guard still makes the rounds of Amman, Jordan; London; and Washington, but those they claim to represent have largely abandoned them. That these failed leaders now demand a delay in Iraq's elections has less to do with allowing displaced persons to return and more to do with preserving their own power since they will likely suffer electoral embarrassment the next time their constituents go to the polls.

Will nationalism unify Iraqis?

If Iraqis are stepping away from sectarianism, what is next? Even the staunchest Shiite and Sunni sectarian parties say they expect to compete with much more inclusive lists. Rather than prioritize sect, they will emphasize Iraqi nationalism. Some talk about competing on the basis of ideology rather than just religion. Time also plays into this trend. Those entering universities this year were not even in kindergarten when the 2003 war started. They have no functional memory of Saddam's brutality; what they do know is that the religious parties to which their parents turned provided no panacea. Politicians, too, know they must do more than simply cite God if they want to win. A generational shift is underway.

This does not mean Iraq will have a rosy future. The political class as a whole remains deeply corrupt, and the civil service hopelessly bloated. Patronage still buys party loyalty. While both Sunni and Shiite Iraqis embraced Saudi Arabia's new willingness to engage productively, they still look wearily at both Iran and Turkey. The recent Kurdish crisis is a distraction no one in Baghdad wants, even if it will bolster the fortunes of Haider al-Abadi, Iraq's moderate and technocratic reformist prime minister. That many Kurds now display a willingness to work with Baghdad and tackle the corruption of Iraqi Kurdistan's oligarchic leadership, however, also may be reason for optimism. Iraqis, however, have always been more resilient than outsiders have given them credit for.

Now is the time for Americans to double down on Iraq, with business contracts rather than guns, in order to reboot bilateral relations and work alongside Iraqis as they reboot their country and economy.

Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.

If you would like to write an op-ed for the Washington Examiner, please read ourguidelines on submissions here.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/iraq-may-have-just-turned-the-corner-from-chaos-to-stability/article/2638367

[Wiljor]

Great article Butifldrm, thanks for sharing.  

Perhaps after 14 Years we can say,  the war machine can finally come to end in Iraq  

[SnowGlobe7]

I am thrilled that the people are moving toward a safer country...now lets tackle the governments and make those safe for the people.

 

 

[Officiallytook]

Awwweessssoome

[siberian_shaddow]

Let's hope 2018 will be our year 

[bostonangler]

Great story... Let's hope they read it in Iraq...

 

B/A

[Synopsis]

2 hours ago, Butifldrm said:

With the world’s fifth-largest oil reserves and oil exports that constitute 34 percent of the GDP, Iraq is the Middle East’s fifth-largest economy, with the fourth-highest per capita GDP at $17,354.

 

Interesting.

 

Fourth highest per capita GDP at $17,354 whereas the article noted below states Iraq's per capita GDP is $5,695.70.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-per-capita

 

$17,354/$5,695.70 = 3.08

 

Could it be the IQD RVed at 3.08 USD = 1 IQD???!!!

 

              

 

Well, OK, just checking to see who needs coffee yet today. Kinda like the Radio Morning Show Hosts giving You the poke to get You goin' in the mornin'!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Laid Back]

"Iraq’s leading bankers say the country’s oil-rich but war-ravaged economy has stabilized enough to allow a return to the world’s capital markets for the first time in a decade with a successful new bond sale"

Follow the bankers ... Follow the money.

iraq is ten times richest than Kuwait.

Go iraq

Go dinar

Go former glory

[NEPatriotsFan1]

48 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

 

Interesting.

 

Fourth highest per capita GDP at $17,354 whereas the article noted below states Iraq's per capita GDP is $5,695.70.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-per-capita

 

$17,354/$5,695.70 = 3.08

 

Could it be the IQD RVed at 3.08 USD = 1 IQD???!!!

 

              

 

Well, OK, just checking to see who needs coffee yet today. Kinda like the Radio Morning Show Hosts giving You the poke to get You goin' in the mornin'!

 

Go Moola Nova!

Would be ecstatic if you were correct in your math Synopsis  

 

Come to Papa! 

[Freedomwish]

55 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-per-capita

 

$17,354/$5,695.70 = 3.08

 

Could it be the IQD RVed at 3.08 USD = 1 IQD???!!!

 

              

 

 

Oh, I'd be good with that!! 

[Synopsis]

8 minutes ago, NEPatriotsFan1 said:

Would be ecstatic if you were correct in your math Synopsis  

 

Maybe my "abstract" math is another thing to keep the hopes and dreams alive, NEPatriotsFan1???!!!  

 

1 minute ago, Freedomwish said:

 

Oh, I'd be good with that!! 

 

Me, too, FreedomWish!!! 

 

The Best Of Your Days To You, NEPatriotsFan1, FreedomWish, and All DV!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Half Crazy Runner]

1 hour ago, Synopsis said:

 

Interesting.

 

Fourth highest per capita GDP at $17,354 whereas the article noted below states Iraq's per capita GDP is $5,695.70.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-per-capita

 

$17,354/$5,695.70 = 3.08

 

Could it be the IQD RVed at 3.08 USD = 1 IQD???!!!

 

              

 

Well, OK, just checking to see who needs coffee yet today. Kinda like the Radio Morning Show Hosts giving You the poke to get You goin' in the mornin'!

 

Go Moola Nova!

 

LOVE this idea Synopsis!!! 

[Synopsis]

2 hours ago, Half Crazy Runner said:

 

LOVE this idea Synopsis!!! 

 

 Half Crazy Runner!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[justchecking123]

Great article. 

 

Well-informed person with knowledge of the real situation, not biased media-manipulated BS.

 

Appreciate the post. 

[ChuckFinley]

4 hours ago, Laid Back said:

"Iraq’s leading bankers say the country’s oil-rich but war-ravaged economy has stabilized enough to allow a return to the world’s capital markets for the first time in a decade with a successful new bond sale"

Follow the bankers ... Follow the money.

iraq is ten times richest than Kuwait.

Go iraq

Go dinar

Go former glory

Now that is music to my ears.  

[ChuckFinley]

19 minutes ago, justchecking123 said:

Great article. 

 

Well-informed person with knowledge of the real situation, not biased media-manipulated BS.

 

Appreciate the post. 

Refreshing 

[Laid Back]

2 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said:

Now that is music to my ears.  

We are getting close to end of this ride, friend

The latest news are pointing in that direction 

 

Go RV sooner than later 

[pontiyak]

"Follow the bankers".....

 Never has truer words been spoken...

 

August’s bond sale. Managed by Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

Gee whizz kids, guess who controls the FED, the IMF, The WTO, the IBS, ( international bank of settlements), and who knows

how many other financial movers and shakers. ? Not to mention Walled Street ....

 

Damn rights I'm gonna follow them crooks..... They never lose, and they will lead me to Valhalla....

 

The best things in life RV

 

yak

[Laid Back]

2 hours ago, pontiyak said:

"Follow the bankers".....

 Never has truer words been spoken...

 

August’s bond sale. Managed by Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

Gee whizz kids, guess who controls the FED, the IMF, The WTO, the IBS, ( international bank of settlements), and who knows

how many other financial movers and shakers. ? Not to mention Walled Street ....

 

Damn rights I'm gonna follow them crooks..... They never lose, and they will lead me to Valhalla....

 

The best things in life RV

 

yak

Thanks for your input.

follow the crooks like you said and you will make money.

Go RV

[WheresmyRV?]

12 hours ago, Laid Back said:

We are getting close to end of this ride, friend

The latest news are pointing in that direction 

 

Go RV sooner than later 

[sandfly]

thanks 

[SocalDinar]

Shabs always said that stability was key!

 

Go Shabs!

[SnowGlobe7]

Who is Shabs?