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SocalDinar

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SocalDinar last won the day on September 23 2015

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About SocalDinar

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    All is well and riding the comet!

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  1. Oil Futures is a pretty good bet right now. I also like Princess cruise (carnival ) $12.00 a share. They have $518 million in operating cash right now. Although it will take longer than oil to rebound it will come back.
  2. Get ready for Hyper inflation!. That can of tuna is gonna cost more
  3. i dont believe a word coming out of China. Ya right no new cases. . And if they ramp up production besides pharmas who will be buying. Saudis gonna flood the market with oil. Not sure its at bottom yet but gonna buy today
  4. Me too Chuck i wanted 500 ounces. The place I normally buy wanted $17.00 an ounce!!! What the??? I passed Now looking at oil futures . Down 29% in 1 week
  5. Well first day of lockdown and I didn’t notice much difference than the day before. Lots of businesses open. Even the Gardner’s were out . Every fast food open . Gas stations open . Silk screen tee shirt business open,all convenience and liquor stores open , Starbucks open plenty of full parking lots at commercial buildings . I’m working in a huge warehouse that only has a skeleton crew doing inventory so we are safe. Im on the list of essential trades that can work.
  6. You too LGD. Trying times but we WILL get through this . Thoughts and prayers for everyone!!!
  7. Its actually a mandate now so enforceable. Im an electrical contractor and already had city officials in my small town call and ask what capacities of infrastructure repair we are capable of. Ive always been a prepper and can handle three months of isolation easy. Not sure about the neighbors so we are ready to help. Electricians are considered essential. but have cancelled all non essential work. I do have a high priority repair scheduled for Saturday that needs to be done at a medical facility ( transformer replacement ) that we will take care of. After that I'll Only take calls from city and government officials. They have my cell number and asked that i be on standby. Been telling everyone i know since Fed 1st to get ready. Many are thanking me now. From a reliable official. Here is a little more information on the virus that may help explain a few things that people don’t understand. This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University. Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand... It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics. Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot. Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off. Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.. H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too. Fast forward. Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery” This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it. And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.. That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine. We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu. Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation... And let me end by saying....this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will) who is to say what it will do next.
  8. It was a madhouse at the store today. Empty shelves and huge lines. This was my last trip to store for quite a while now. Bought a freezer and wanted to fill it up. There was thing disturbing. two people in front of me was an irate black guy. He was cursing at anyone who got to close to him. He was on his phone talking loudly about the white women behind her and being pretty racist in his remarks. I had her keep her distance.30 mins later at the cashier we made eye contact and he became agitated. He looked up at me and said that everything i own was stolen from another race. He was yelling obscenities. Then he threatened to kick my arse and even though he was sixty he could. My wife saw what was happening and immediately knew what my next reaction was going to be and pulled me back. I looked at her and could see the fear in her eyes and so I bowed my head and told the man that Im just here to buy some groceries . I felt like a woose but knew it was the best thing to do. But i did get some satisfaction as I watched him open his wallet to pay and he had some sticky bills so he licked his thumb and separated the notes. It was all i could do to stop myself from bursting out in laughter
  9. I don't know anyone selling??? Precious metals are on a roller coaster ride too. Not selling that either but I am fortunate enough to have plenty of liquid assets and my customers are doing pretty good right now. I do mostly large distribution warehouse work for large online shopping companies. They are actually hiring right now and always reconfiguring. I personally never blamed Obama for the meltdown. I blamed the banks and homeowners who used their houses as credit cards. The next bubble will probably be student loans. People borrowing money with no real plan on how to pay it back. But truth is I don't like government in general. Never have and never will. I can run my own life and take care of myself thank you very much.
  10. Can you still get readily available supplies? Ive always been a prepper and could hunker down for a few months easily. Its always been for an earthquake. Not worried about the virus. More worried about unprepared people and FEMA lines.
  11. # 6 is interesting The Iraqi parliament issues 8 recommendations to the government to avoid the risks of a global economic crisis 2020/03/12 04:37:24 A- A A+ Shafaq News / The Parliamentary Economy and Investment Committee urged on Thursday the Iraqi government to implement recommendations and decisions to avoid the country risks of a looming global economic crisis after the collapse of oil prices and the spread of a virus in most countries of the world. The committee said in a statement today that it is deeply concerned with the low prices of oil sales and requests the government to take the necessary precautions to face a looming global economic crisis on the horizon, which will have a strong impact on the Iraqi economy in light of the deficit and debt burdened by the state's general budget. The committee asked the government to take a number of measures and decisions through which it can manage the financial crisis, as follows: - 1 - Stopping investment spending and reducing operational spending in all aspects of government activity immediately. 2- Agree with the creditors to postpone the payment of Iraq's external and internal debts until the financial situation improves. 3- Obtaining state debts on mobile phone companies and telecommunications companies. 4- Stop the payment of amounts to the investors of the electricity sector. 5- Work to enhance government imports and supply the treasury with the region's value of crude oil exports and border crossings. 6- Review the exchange rates from the Central Bank of Iraq to ensure prices that do not affect the citizen and at the same time secure the salaries of state employees. 7- Form a supreme committee to impose the management of Iraqi treasury funds and to follow up the ministries, agencies and institutions that are lagging behind in paying the money obligated to collect them for the public treasury. 8- Any other measures that the government deems necessary to maintain the hard currency and prevent wastage in spending. https://www.shafaaq.com/en/economy/the-iraqi-parliament-issues-8-recommendations-to-the-government-to-avoid-the-risks-of-a-global-economic-crisis/
  12. Iran Deliberately Suppresses Iraq’s Economic Growth One of the more insidious methods Iran has used to repress the Iraqi people has been the systematic choking of their economy. by Jess Young March 11, 2020 in Business Iran’s long-time strategy of wresting control of the Iraqi state has made tremendous gains in recent years. What started off as the financing and training of Shiite militias in the country following the US invasion in 2003, quickly morphed into a concerted effort to permeate every facet of Iraqi society. Tehran’s success in Iraq has culminated in the promotion of pro-Iranian policymakers that have held political power in Iraqi institutions for years. This plan has been a page straight out of the Ayatollah’s old playbook, and essentially a repeat of how the Iranian Revolution infiltrated the Lebanese government with their loyal proxy Hezbollah. Today, Iranian officials have largely free reign across all key institutions in Iraq. All of this is part of Tehran’s grand strategy for the region to achieve strategic depth in the region in the form of the so-called “Shia Crescent” through Mesopotamia. This vision (which Iran has made tremendous headway in making a reality) is that of a large swath of area under Iranian control encompassing much of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. As recognized by regional leaders, Iran has been actively pursuing this goal and making steady progress for at least the past fifteen years. One of the more insidious methods Iran has used to repress the Iraqi people has been the systematic choking of their economy. Iraq’s economy has for decades struggled to get on its feet despite massive efforts from the international community to stimulate industry and provide aid where appropriate. Considering Iraq is an incredibly resource-rich country, with export potential from crude oil to agriculture, one has to wonder what are the forces keeping the economy in stagnated state? Iran intentionally prevents Iraq from diversifying and shifting away from a reliance on oil. Iraq once had a relatively successful agricultural sector, for instance, that made up a substantial part of the country’s GDP. Iraq’s fertile lowlands in the Mesopotamian plains, irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates, make it perfectly suited for the growth of cereals such as wheat, barley, and rice, as well as fruit trees like date palms. But for the past several years, Iraq’s crop exports have been essentially subverted by an expansionist Iranian agenda. As American intelligence agencies trying to determine the reasons for the Iraqi economy’s stunted growth have pointed out, Iranian influence has “prevented the current government from adopting—much less implementing–effective and coordinated agricultural policies.” Iran, on its part, is happy to quash it’s neighbor’s cash crop sector. By doing so it kills two birds with one stone: ridding itself of a regional agricultural competitor, and creating a country on its border that is entirely dependant on Iranian supply for survival. Indeed the World Bank has highlighted the ever-growing “rise in import bills” (for products Iraq is fully capable of producing itself), as one of the primary reasons for the country’s unrealized growth potential. Iran has accomplished this by forcing its own imports into Iraq and flooding the Iraqi agriculture market. Iraqi farmers and agribusiness owners are constantly complaining to authorities of Iranian crops swamping local markets, undercutting locals’ prices in the process. This situation persists despite the banning of Iranian imports by the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture. “We are facing a conspiracy as there are influential parties [with ties to Iran] that do not want the agricultural sector in Iraq to flourish and instead want to disadvantage Iraqi farmers in general,” said one Baghdad-based farmer to local media. “We are putting in a lot of money and effort in planting our crops, and in the end, Iranian crops flood in and deprive us of our livelihoods and leave us with nothing but despair,” he said. Beyond the economic starvation, some have accused Iran of even more sinister tactics after fires consumed large swaths of farmland across Iraqi provinces – many blame Iranian backed militias operating in the affected areas. Even Iraq’s most obvious moneymaker, its crude oil reserves, are being taken advantage of. Following massive hits to the Iranian economy from U.S. sanctions, Iran has attempted to circumvent the embargoes that have been so strictly enforced. Now with Iraqi crude in uniquely high demand (especially by refineries in Asia), Iran has syphoned off Iraqi oil profits, and mixed its own oil in Iraq’s exports, as a way of circumventing the sanctions on its own crude industry. Iraq’s economy doesn’t have to be in such a state. Plans to harness the country’s market potential have been in the works for years, with concrete strategies to diversify the economy, boost public services, infrastructure, education, transport, communications, and even hi-tech, all on the economic roadmap. But these future plans have all fallen flat as Iran latches on. The Iraqi people do have a way out, however. As farmers, protesters and sovereignty movements in the country demand, Iraq must reject Tehran’s expansionist goals and secure its own borders. The ruling government in Baghdad must place the interests of Iraqis first and not be swayed by foreign powers. Practically speaking, this means supporting a broadly aligned group of pro-sovereignty movements, governed by the Sovereignty Alliance for Iraq. These organizations like Ammar Al-Hakim’s National Wisdom Movement, or the National Independent Iraqi Front operate on a non-sectarian and unifying platform that also opposes Iranian interference. By shifting control back into the hands of the Iraqi people, a future independent and sovereign Iraq can guarantee employment, eradicate corruption and ease ethnic tensions. Foreign intervention has never worked in Iraq. The only solution to Iraq’s economic predicament is for Iraq to become a sovereign nation that controls its own border and industries. Once a devoted political leadership is established in Baghdad, Iraq’s economy can attract foreign investment, grow regional partnerships and become a modern and prosperous nation. https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/lifestyle/my-business/iran-deliberately-suppresses-iraqs-economic-growth/11/03/
  13. Okie is still alive? This guy does not quit
  14. s To Iraq’s Oil-Based Economy by Noam Raydan | February 21, 2Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, has a list of Coronavirus: Another Factor Exposing Risks To Iraq’s Oil-Based Economy by Noam Raydan | February 21, 2020 Coronavirus: Another Factor Exposing Risks to Iraq's Oil-based Economy Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, has a list of challenges that keeps growing. From the anti-government protests and the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff, to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to hit Baghdad with sanctions, a myriad of issues have raised concerns in recent months about supply disruptions from southern Iraq. To make matters worse, Iraq is now watching a crisis, which no one saw coming, unfolding outside its borders that can potentially impact its oil sales. challenges that keeps growing. From the anti-government protests and the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff, to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to hit Baghdad with sanctions, a myriad of issues have raised concerns in recent months about supply disruptions from southern Iraq. To make matters worse, Iraq is now watching a crisis, which no one saw coming, unfolding outside its borders that can potentially impact its oil sales. In its January report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) called Iraq a “potentially vulnerable supplier” due to geopolitical risks—blamed on the U.S.-Iran tensions—and anti-government protests. Iraq relies heavily on oil revenues which make up around 90 percent of its budget. The country would suffer severely if crude exports drop sharply, especially amid volatile oil prices, with matters exacerbated by the inability of Iraq’s existing political and economic system to cope with the grave consequences. However, neither regional tensions nor the protests led to the imagined disruptions some had feared, and concerns over risks to oil flows from southern Iraq began to gradually fade around mid-January. Then the outbreak of the novel coronavirus hit the global markets. The focus shifted from possible oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf to the impact of the epidemic on China’s oil demand. As the world’s largest importer of crude oil, China is a key consumer of Iraqi crude that includes its flagship Basrah Light. According to TankerTrackers.com, the majority of Iraq’s southern crude exports in December went to China (33.40 percent) and India (28.42 percent). Saudi Arabia and Iraq are China’s top suppliers within the Persian Gulf. Most of the crude oil that transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2019 went to Asia, with China being the top importer, taking in 3.7 million barrels a day, data from Bloomberg show. In early January, questions were raised about the impact of security developments in Iraq on the selling of Basrah crude to Asian refiners, including Chinese. Now, the question is the other way around: If the coronavirus outbreak is not contained soon, how will lower Chinese oil demand, accompanied by weak oil prices, affect a key oil supplier like Iraq that heavily relies on oil sales? To put it bluntly: Iraq’s budget will suffer as the pillars of revenue falter, and the government will not be able to bury its head in the sand. “Structural Problems” “Iraq will have a deficit in its budget which is mostly for paying public salaries,” said Ahmed Tabaqchali, a financial analyst and senior fellow at the Sulaimani-based Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS). During a phone interview he noted that Iraq, over the past few years, “has built up its foreign reserves because of higher oil prices, but it needs those reserves [not to pay public salaries] but because the country relies on importing goods and products.” Moreover, the country does not have a fiscal cushion to cope with the impact from a sharp drop in exports as well as oil prices. In January, Iraq’s federal oil revenues, and according to Iraq Oil Report, dropped by around 8 percent compared to December to settle at $6.195 billion due to lower crude exports and a drop in oil prices. And that was before coronavirus threw the global markets into turmoil. The burgeoning problem of public payroll, since 2003, has been highlighted regularly by Iraqi researchers and analysts who have underlined the consequences that will hit the government hard if they are left unaddressed. Ali al-Mawlawi, the head of research at the Baghdad-based Al-Bayan Center, says in a research paper published last year that “one of the key lessons from the fiscal crisis that emerged in 2014 is that Iraq’s reliance on oil combined with the volatility in oil prices means that the country can no longer afford to grow the public wage bill without expecting severe consequences.” These, according to al-Mawlawi, include its failure to dedicate enough resources for rebuilding an infrastructure that has been badly damaged throughout years of violence, and most importantly, the government’s inability to address vital public services—a critical problem that has been fueling protests. Tabaqchali explains that Iraq has a “structural problem” in its political system—built on al-Muhasasa (an Arabic term that refers to a quota system wherein each political group wants its own share)—which has been impeding any serious efforts to implement reforms. “The economy is the government and the government/power is diffused,” Tabaqchali said. “There is a political will. But it is a political will to preserve the status quo, not change it,” he added. The problem caused by this entrenched system have led to large-scale protests calling for its overhaul. More than 500 protesters have been reportedly killed since October 2019. And it is not only the federal government in Baghdad that will bear the brunt of a budget in crisis. The autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north relies on its independent oil sales—which averaged 446,000 barrels per day in December 2019, according to Iraq Oil Report—and on federal public salaries transfers. If Baghdad’s budget is dealt a blow because of the current shocks in the oil market due to the coronavirus, the KRG will feel the repercussions, Tabaqchali explains, directly due to a loss of income from its lower independent oil revenues, and indirectly from a potential drop in federal transfers. For instance, once the KRG’s income starts suffering, payments to International Oil Companies (IOCs) could be delayed, and if the situation worsens, the delays would be extended to public salaries, according to Tabaqchali. This last part in particular is a recipe for social unrest. The Iraqi Response “If the coronavirus continues and affects oil consumers, it will certainly backfire on us because most of our oil travels eastward,” a senior Iraqi official told me. The relevant Iraqi authorities have taken measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus to the country, and there is no major impact, at least for now, on energy projects involving Chinese companies. Iraq’s oil ministry spokesman Asim Jihad told me on February 6 that “the workflow is ongoing and there is no impact on operations at the oilfields—whether those involving Chinese companies or others.” Caretaker electricity minister Luay al-Khateeb, meanwhile, said that there “are no delays at the moment, and everything is on track,” with respect to projects at his ministry. “At the moment, the current measures we have is that we want to make sure that the virus does not travel back to Iraq. We advised Chinese workers in Iraq to stay and not travel back to China [for the time being] because if they do, they will have [to go through a long process] to clear themselves before getting back. And all this leads to additional costs, logistics, all which will further delay any projects that we are working on,” al-Khateeb added during an interview on February 13. The various Chinese companies in Iraq include the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) which is involved in building the Salah al-Din power station located in north-central Iraq. A five-day visit by an Iraqi delegation to China last September, was hailed as “historic”, and signaled growing relations between the two countries. China is considered Iraq’s biggest trading partner and is heavily invested in its energy industry. In an interview with the state-run al-Sabah newspaper in May 2019, Chinese Ambassador to Baghdad Zhang Tao said that “the amount of Chinese investments in Iraq is very large, exceeding $20 billion in the oil sector.” From the anti-government protests, to the U.S.-Iran confrontation, and now the novel coronavirus, a wide variety of geopolitical factors have all exposed the vulnerability of Iraq’s economy in its current form. So I asked Tabaqchali whether the government can diversify the economy instead of relying on oil sales. “The government cannot do that because the political system cannot support it. One of the major requirements when it comes to the private sector is that for it to develop you need rule of law and the state monopoly of violence,” he grimly said. “These don’t exist in Iraq.” http://energyfuse.org/coronavirus-another-factor-exposing-risks-to-iraqs-oil-based-economy/
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