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Perish the thought of a LOP


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I have always looked at this investment as "the ultimate penny stock IPO" with one dinar being akin to a share of stock of a company that is just about to "go public." The difference here is that this particular company has a known inventory of 550 billion barrels of oil, as well as (a) one of the (if not, the) world's largest supply of natural gas and (B) untold amounts of other natural resourses that have yet to be discovered on the 52% of it's property which has thus far NOT been explored. Carrying this analogy further, let's look at the current "market capitalization" of this company. If we take the current exchange rate of $.00086/dinar and multiply it by the 29 trillion dinar outstanding (or in circulation, if you will), that mean the market value of the ENTIRE money supply of Iraq (including every dinar owned by us private investors, the US Treasury, China, and what sits in the CBI) is worth a total of $24,94 billion. That's all, folks...the entire money supply is worth less than $25 billion. If they do the dreaded LOP, the value of the money supply doesn't change one iota. It would be like a reverse-split. It won't change the value of our holdings, nor would it change the market capitalization of the "company" in which we've invested.

The situation is that the FMV of this company's assets far exceed it's market valuation. At $100/per barrel, this company will get $95/profit (after deducting the $5/barrel production costs). So just from the KNOWN reserves of oil alone, our penny stock company will yield under this scenario $52.25 TRILLION DOLLARS. So just from the value of the oil alone, we're looking at a value of $1.80/dinar...and that's per every dinar that currently exists. Yeah, I know there are other factors to look at like time value of money, future potential market fluctuations (which can go both ways), changes in government policies, variations in production costs, yada, yada, yada. I'm just trying to point that there is way too much money in the ground for them to do anything other than a straight-up RV.

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I have always looked at this investment as "the ultimate penny stock IPO" with one dinar being akin to a share of stock of a company that is just about to "go public." The difference here is that this

Use a little common sense......why did everyone here buy dinar?? Hmmmmm.......that should be an easy one for you to answer........My head just isent up in the clouds anymore thats all....thats not be

Keepm will be here to argue with you soon.

I have always looked at this investment as "the ultimate penny stock IPO" with one dinar being akin to a share of stock of a company that is just about to "go public." The difference here is that this particular company has a known inventory of 550 billion barrels of oil, as well as (a) one of the (if not, the) world's largest supply of natural gas and (B) untold amounts of other natural resourses that have yet to be discovered on the 52% of it's property which has thus far NOT been explored. Carrying this analogy further, let's look at the current "market capitalization" of this company. If we take the current exchange rate of $.00086/dinar and multiply it by the 29 trillion dinar outstanding (or in circulation, if you will), that mean the market value of the ENTIRE money supply of Iraq (including every dinar owned by us private investors, the US Treasury, China, and what sits in the CBI) is worth a total of $24,94 billion. That's all, folks...the entire money supply is worth less than $25 billion. If they do the dreaded LOP, the value of the money supply doesn't change one iota. It would be like a reverse-split. It won't change the value of our holdings, nor would it change the market capitalization of the "company" in which we've invested.

The situation is that the FMV of this company's assets far exceed it's market valuation. At $100/per barrel, this company will get $95/profit (after deducting the $5/barrel production costs). So just from the KNOWN reserves of oil alone, our penny stock company will yield under this scenario $52.25 TRILLION DOLLARS. So just from the value of the oil alone, we're looking at a value of $1.80/dinar...and that's per every dinar that currently exists. Yeah, I know there are other factors to look at like time value of money, future potential market fluctuations (which can go both ways), changes in government policies, variations in production costs, yada, yada, yada. I'm just trying to point that there is way too much money in the ground for them to do anything other than a straight-up RV.

That's a interesting take on this Rabbi but your forgetting one thing. First they have to get it out of the ground. THERE LIES THE RUB. They are still stuck within a 18th century tribe mentality. They are warriors. They cant quit shooting at each other long enough to get anything accomplished. Yes there is great wealth in Iraq. But it may take years for that wealth to come to fruit. Just saying. Salom

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Timely post Rabbi. A lot of lop paranoia going around lately. The company to country analogy you used was a perfect vehicle for understanding. Way to bring in the facts to support your position. Mazel Tov !

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No argument from me on this one. I have been saying they could easily do the $3.22 rate but it seems that others are hell bent on this being nothing more then a penny stock. Taking into account that the same families that back our private corporation the Federal Reserve are backing the CBI, I believe they could come out at just about any rate they want. I do however believe they will come out low on a free float system and make a killing on the way up. Others feel that they will always be on a managed float. I just don't see the Rothschild's doing this....but hey.....whatever. Time will tell.

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Keepm will be here to argue with you soon.

lol too true my friend. I think he wants a LOP to happen so he can say I told ya so... it's just so much easier for people to err on the side of negativity, because people are sooner to believe the negative will happen. Keepm must be a mets fan ha ha ha ha ha!

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lol too true my friend. I think he wants a LOP to happen so he can say I told ya so... it's just so much easier for people to err on the side of negativity, because people are sooner to believe the negative will happen. Keepm must be a mets fan ha ha ha ha ha!

Use a little common sense......why did everyone here buy dinar?? Hmmmmm.......that should be an easy one for you to answer........My head just isent up in the clouds anymore thats all....thats not being negative....In the beginning I was only focused on the most positive information and only looking at one side of this investment.....then I actually opened up my eyes to ALL aspects of this....which more people should do.....of course I dont want a LOP....but after much more reading and looking into things I dont see a huge RV.....its either going to be a low RV to start till they get the bills in or it will be a LOP and hopefully much higher RV afterwards in which we can hopefully double or triple our original investment

Move it to the Lop Section. Where Keep is really King of the Heap. O yea….LOL

Dont be mad cause you cant discredit my information.......or that you cant bring any sort of intelligent discussion to the table....its ok bro....you can still be my friend..... laugh.gif

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I have always looked at this investment as "the ultimate penny stock IPO" with one dinar being akin to a share of stock of a company that is just about to "go public." The difference here is that this particular company has a known inventory of 550 billion barrels of oil, as well as (a) one of the (if not, the) world's largest supply of natural gas and (B) untold amounts of other natural resourses that have yet to be discovered on the 52% of it's property which has thus far NOT been explored. Carrying this analogy further, let's look at the current "market capitalization" of this company. If we take the current exchange rate of $.00086/dinar and multiply it by the 29 trillion dinar outstanding (or in circulation, if you will), that mean the market value of the ENTIRE money supply of Iraq (including every dinar owned by us private investors, the US Treasury, China, and what sits in the CBI) is worth a total of $24,94 billion. That's all, folks...the entire money supply is worth less than $25 billion. If they do the dreaded LOP, the value of the money supply doesn't change one iota. It would be like a reverse-split. It won't change the value of our holdings, nor would it change the market capitalization of the "company" in which we've invested.

The situation is that the FMV of this company's assets far exceed it's market valuation. At $100/per barrel, this company will get $95/profit (after deducting the $5/barrel production costs). So just from the KNOWN reserves of oil alone, our penny stock company will yield under this scenario $52.25 TRILLION DOLLARS. So just from the value of the oil alone, we're looking at a value of $1.80/dinar...and that's per every dinar that currently exists. Yeah, I know there are other factors to look at like time value of money, future potential market fluctuations (which can go both ways), changes in government policies, variations in production costs, yada, yada, yada. I'm just trying to point that there is way too much money in the ground for them to do anything other than a straight-up RV.

Excellent points bro. I think that working with their existing money supply and letting it grow on its own makes more sense than a straight up lop. Anything is a possibility but I like the argument that you bring to the table. + 1 my friend.

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I have always looked at this investment as "the ultimate penny stock IPO" with one dinar being akin to a share of stock of a company that is just about to "go public." The difference here is that this particular company has a known inventory of 550 billion barrels of oil, as well as (a) one of the (if not, the) world's largest supply of natural gas and (B) untold amounts of other natural resourses that have yet to be discovered on the 52% of it's property which has thus far NOT been explored. Carrying this analogy further, let's look at the current "market capitalization" of this company. If we take the current exchange rate of $.00086/dinar and multiply it by the 29 trillion dinar outstanding (or in circulation, if you will), that mean the market value of the ENTIRE money supply of Iraq (including every dinar owned by us private investors, the US Treasury, China, and what sits in the CBI) is worth a total of $24,94 billion. That's all, folks...the entire money supply is worth less than $25 billion. If they do the dreaded LOP, the value of the money supply doesn't change one iota. It would be like a reverse-split. It won't change the value of our holdings, nor would it change the market capitalization of the "company" in which we've invested.

The situation is that the FMV of this company's assets far exceed it's market valuation. At $100/per barrel, this company will get $95/profit (after deducting the $5/barrel production costs). So just from the KNOWN reserves of oil alone, our penny stock company will yield under this scenario $52.25 TRILLION DOLLARS. So just from the value of the oil alone, we're looking at a value of $1.80/dinar...and that's per every dinar that currently exists. Yeah, I know there are other factors to look at like time value of money, future potential market fluctuations (which can go both ways), changes in government policies, variations in production costs, yada, yada, yada. I'm just trying to point that there is way too much money in the ground for them to do anything other than a straight-up RV.

Unfortunately there are a couple of problems with the numbers you are using though. You are stating that the entire money supply is 29 trillion dinar, but that is not the case. You are not including the 'electronic' dinar that is also part of their monetary system which takes their M1 to ~51 trillion dinar and a M2 that is ~60 trillion dinar. Your statements of 550 billion barrels of oil also seems to be a little off, since Shahrastani stated at the 12th International Oil Summit held in Paris on April 6th of this month that they have a 143 billion barrels of proven recoverable reserves, another 30 billion barrels that have yet to be fully audited but believed to be fully recoverable, which would give them a total of 173 billion barrels of proven recoverable oil. They know there is more oil there, but unless they can recover it, it really has no value to them at the present time.

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Rabbi perish the thought of there not being a LOP.

My friend I suggest you perish the thought of a LOP.

Clearly those who say LOP here dont understand what a LOP is. LOSS OF PROFIT.

You knew that though, right? lol I knew you did and were just playing with the Rabbi. Hmmm Not nice.

Ok so since you know a Loss Of Profit requires IRAQ to be on the flip side of what they are currently dealing with economically then did you mean replacing the currency in order to re-establish a lower denom in place of the current system.

Do YOU rrrreeeeaaaalllllllyyyy believe they will do that? Honestly? Do you even get the implication of what would be involved?

LOL Ok I didnt think you meant any of that. SO if you dont believe this will do well and you REALLY believe in a "L O P" why not just take your dinar and sell it quickly before you waste time on this little investment.

Sorry if I am playing around with you but I personally get tired of the people who try to qualify a point with weak facts or worse, invalid terms.

Peace and if you think I am off please educated me.

Unfortunately there are a couple of problems with the numbers you are using though. You are stating that the entire money supply is 29 trillion dinar, but that is not the case. You are not including the 'electronic' dinar that is also part of their monetary system which takes their M1 to ~51 trillion dinar and a M2 that is ~60 trillion dinar. Your statements of 550 billion barrels of oil also seems to be a little off, since Shahrastani stated at the 12th International Oil Summit held in Paris on April 6th of this month that they have a 143 billion barrels of proven recoverable reserves, another 30 billion barrels that have yet to be fully audited but believed to be fully recoverable, which would give them a total of 173 billion barrels of proven recoverable oil. They know there is more oil there, but unless they can recover it, it really has no value to them at the present time.

This is true except that it is by the speculation of 40% of the land or less... And you are not taking into consideration the metals and natural gas. Trust me there is more, but wait and see. RELAX. Have a more positive outlook.

We will all be enlightened soon enough. Have a great day and weekend coming. Peace.

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If Iraq were to remove the 3 '000s from the currency.....the 24T IQD in circulations would become 27B IQD. IF they then RV it at par = USD 27B. WOW! Bill Gates alone would be able to buy the whole of Iraq currency. :lol:

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If Iraq were to remove the 3 '000s from the currency.....the 24T IQD in circulations would become 27B IQD. IF they then RV it at par = USD 27B. WOW! Bill Gates alone would be able to buy the whole of Iraq currency. :lol:

Exactly. A lop won't happen. I don't even know how people are still even considering this a feasible option. They want international investors in Iraq and a lop won't encourage people to go there.

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Exactly. A lop won't happen. I don't even know how people are still even considering this a feasible option. They want international investors in Iraq and a lop won't encourage people to go there.

And foriegn investors arent worried about the currency......they are worried about stability....thats their focus...what would they want with the dinar when there is no practical use for it outside the country?? It wont make a difference what the currency is valued at....look at vietnam...they are posting the highest growth economically speaking because of foreign investors building up in the country and their currency is one of the worst on the planet.....if Iraq lops that wont be a deal breaker for them....they could care less....its all about stability for outside investors...

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And foriegn investors arent worried about the currency......they are worried about stability....thats their focus...what would they want with the dinar when there is no practical use for it outside the country?? It wont make a difference what the currency is valued at....look at vietnam...they are posting the highest growth economically speaking because of foreign investors building up in the country and their currency is one of the worst on the planet.....if Iraq lops that wont be a deal breaker for them....they could care less....its all about stability for outside investors...

I think we would have to view this as apples to oranges when comparing the two countries.

Asian countries do a lot of exporting.... They tend to hold an undervalued currency (See China)...

M.E. countries do a lot of importing... They tend to hold a higher value currency (See other M.E. countries using dinar)...

The economy is growing & stabilizing... To some people, they may feel the need to jump into the honey pot before it gets warm...

If the IMF has a goal to reduce poverty and improve the economy.. How would a LOP help that? The wealth of every individual stays the same & I don't believe it would help improve the economy.

It would maybe make transactions simpler through a banking standard, however, for the individuals, they still have to carry the same # of bills to make purchases.. (Which in this case, it could cause confusion between having to manage two sets of denoms.... and others may feel a loss of wealth, which won't necessarily be true, but the #s in a bank account would show differently).

Purchasing power would remain the same.... And they worry about dollarization. Which is two currencies used within a country. Lots of the citizens prefer the use of the dollar over the IQD because of the purchasing power & stability. Well, look at this way.. A stable $1 vs. a questionable stability of $0.85... Which will be more of the preferred use? It likely won't solve that problem either. Now, include the costs of introducing the new currency, exchanging it, and educating people about it... Than consider the speculators who hold it with expectations of large gains who decide to cash-out and no longer wish to remain on the ride. Now the cash reserves start getting affected. It would appear to them that they have a stronger currency, and maybe to the public view, but in reality.. It is no more or less stable than it was prior. Turkey I believe did their LOP due to accounting and processing of transaction issues. Hard to do math on a calculator when you have to consider soo many zeros! :lol:

By no means, am I saying a LOP/RD is impossible.. I just weigh the pros/cons on both, and favor the alternative will be more beneficial for everyone. :)

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I think we would have to view this as apples to oranges when comparing the two countries.

Asian countries do a lot of exporting.... They tend to hold an undervalued currency (See China)...

M.E. countries do a lot of importing... They tend to hold a higher value currency (See other M.E. countries using dinar)...

The economy is growing & stabilizing... To some people, they may feel the need to jump into the honey pot before it gets warm...

If the IMF has a goal to reduce poverty and improve the economy.. How would a LOP help that? The wealth of every individual stays the same & I don't believe it would help improve the economy.

It would maybe make transactions simpler through a banking standard, however, for the individuals, they still have to carry the same # of bills to make purchases.. (Which in this case, it could cause confusion between having to manage two sets of denoms.... and others may feel a loss of wealth, which won't necessarily be true, but the #s in a bank account would show differently).

Purchasing power would remain the same.... And they worry about dollarization. Which is two currencies used within a country. Lots of the citizens prefer the use of the dollar over the IQD because of the purchasing power & stability. Well, look at this way.. A stable $1 vs. a questionable stability of $0.85... Which will be more of the preferred use? It likely won't solve that problem either. Now, include the costs of introducing the new currency, exchanging it, and educating people about it... Than consider the speculators who hold it with expectations of large gains who decide to cash-out and no longer wish to remain on the ride. Now the cash reserves start getting affected. It would appear to them that they have a stronger currency, and maybe to the public view, but in reality.. It is no more or less stable than it was prior. Turkey I believe did their LOP due to accounting and processing of transaction issues. Hard to do math on a calculator when you have to consider soo many zeros! :lol:

By no means, am I saying a LOP/RD is impossible.. I just weigh the pros/cons on both, and favor the alternative will be more beneficial for everyone. :)

Redenominations (lops) help instill confidence in the currency that inflationary problems are in the past. Confidence in the currency promotes foreign investment. Foreign investment creates projects and jobs. Unemployment decreases which decreases poverty. While this is going on, the currency gets stronger and continues their economy and maintain the reductions in unemployment and poverty levels.

They did not get into the situation that they are in overnight, and they won't get out of it overnight. But they have to start moving forward instead of sideways to tackle these problems. Redenomination is not the cure, it is simply a step in the process to recovery of the nation.

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And foriegn investors arent worried about the currency......they are worried about stability....thats their focus...what would they want with the dinar when there is no practical use for it outside the country?? It wont make a difference what the currency is valued at....look at vietnam...they are posting the highest growth economically speaking because of foreign investors building up in the country and their currency is one of the worst on the planet.....if Iraq lops that wont be a deal breaker for them....they could care less....its all about stability for outside investors...

Please Mr KEEP explain to all of us what a LOP is? The definition seems to ellude me. Can you explain how a LOSS OF PROFIT will happen in an underinflated economy?

You and a few seem to believe this word fits into this economic situation and I just want to be educated on it. First off the word is a term which in my belief doesnt fit this economic model.

So, in advance I thank you for the definition and explaination.

Peace to all of you and I look forward to my education from KEEP.

Also, if you are old enough, maybe we can grab a beer when this is all over and luagh about this.

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Redenominations (lops) help instill confidence in the currency that inflationary problems are in the past. Confidence in the currency promotes foreign investment. Foreign investment creates projects and jobs. Unemployment decreases which decreases poverty. While this is going on, the currency gets stronger and continues their economy and maintain the reductions in unemployment and poverty levels.

They did not get into the situation that they are in overnight, and they won't get out of it overnight. But they have to start moving forward instead of sideways to tackle these problems. Redenomination is not the cure, it is simply a step in the process to recovery of the nation.

That is totally a respective perspective. But whether I see an exchange rate of 1170 or 1.170 -- my view will not really change on their position. Why? Because I guess I am more informed and follow the situation.

And for anyone who looks into their scenario, they may understand as well. Remember, anyone looking to spend serious money into their economy may do their due diligence and see that their exchange rate only improved due to a LOP. The overall situation may not have changed/improved.

They jumped from A to P in the alphabet.

I would prefer a history of watching it jump from A to C to E to H to J to K to P and than on up.

A little history of improving over time will show their true stability. (IMHO)

Basically.. I think they've come to a fork in the road. They can go straight and continue in hopes of gradual increases over time. Turn left & LOP or turn right & RV.

All have pros all have cons..... And I doubt they go straight because people wish to see their value go up faster (more than likely) who knows..

It is a long process regardless and I would be willing to bet they could achieve the same long-term goals of reducing poverty and reducing the unemployed w/o lopping.

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That is totally a respective perspective. But whether I see an exchange rate of 1170 or 1.170 -- my view will not really change on their position. Why? Because I guess I am more informed and follow the situation.

And for anyone who looks into their scenario, they may understand as well. Remember, anyone looking to spend serious money into their economy may do their due diligence and see that their exchange rate only improved due to a LOP. The overall situation may not have changed/improved.

They jumped from A to P in the alphabet.

I would prefer a history of watching it jump from A to C to E to H to J to K to P and than on up.

A little history of improving over time will show their true stability. (IMHO)

Basically.. I think they've come to a fork in the road. They can go straight and continue in hopes of gradual increases over time. Turn left & LOP or turn right & RV.

All have pros all have cons..... And I doubt they go straight because people wish to see their value go up faster (more than likely) who knows..

It is a long process regardless and I would be willing to bet they could achieve the same long-term goals of reducing poverty and reducing the unemployed w/o lopping.

Given your statement that you are "more informed and follow the situation", what is your viewpoint on the rate that Iraq will come out with in a straight RV?

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Given your statement that you are "more informed and follow the situation", what is your viewpoint on the rate that Iraq will come out with in a straight RV?

Well to start off, I don't view myself as qualified or informed enough to give a some-what accurate answer. But I can offer my viewpoint which is basically just an opinion.

To start off.. Lets say they decide to go the route of re-valuing. I am sure they have to wait for the correct market conditions (Which I don't necessarily know which factors to watch for)

And study the situation to a point to find the correct introductive rate.

To begin, what do you think the minimum amount you would truly cash-in based upon a RV?

For example.. We know that everyone would likely cash out at $3...... I have no doubt that many would sit back and wait for a better rate from $3 as it could easily drop from that value.

We also can predict that many may not jump to cashing out at a penny. A penny is basically the equivilant of 10 times your investment. Great return in my opinion.

But, than they have to determine how many people would buy-in at a penny if the rates went live at a penny. We would view it as a penny stock & it would be easy to have 1,000 shares at $10... Throwing 100s at the investment would come with ease.

A dime would reduce that, and I believe that many would cash out at a dime, but some will still hold (Unless they have a limited window upon cash-in)

Now.. If I were to just give a rough estimate to what introductive rate they choose? I would say a Quarter. (Personal opinion, because some will say higher, some will say lower, some will say LOP)

I think at the rate of a quarter, they'll be similar to the Saudis... They'll have room to grow, and the value could rise..

It will be enough of a rate increase to get many to cash out & many to buy-in.

If for every IQD exchanged-in, they had a buyer willing to purchase at that rate.. The cash reserves don't take a hit & the CBI profits from the spread. They coudl easily take a % of the profit and deposit into their reserves and let their reserves grow.

Some people who buy in late, may lose $ if they are impatient, some may make money with patience.

For ex:

If the sell rate was a $1.00 & the buy rate was $0.98.. For every IQD transaction they would make 2 pennies. So, if they exchange $5,000 in value... They may make $100... At this point it becomes more volatile, more people gamble, and therefore some get rich some get burned. CBI always wins in the end.

But the main point of it all.. Is that they have to find a rate that still ensures they have people willing to buy & people to sell. If both can be met properly, the CBI doesn't take a hit. The more transactions back & forth the more $ they make. Other things they would be able to do is as they draw in big notes, they can remove them from circulation all together as well. Thus reducing the entire money supply in circulation. All while manaing the exchange rate. And over time the value will likely go up.. But, like many state, they'll come out low and gradually increase in value.

Everyone looks at the total # in circulation and figure the new RV value represents the entire circulation. They only have to in reality cash out those that hold it for investment purposes. The individual speculative investor. We're actually only a small role in the big picture. I would guesstimate we account for maybe a total of 1 trillion IQD. (Maybe, as I am considering the entire global speculators)

Could be higher, could be lower... But as we continue to do transactions, the cbi profits.

So with 1 trillion in the hands of speculative investors and lets say 100 % of them cash out.. They would only need to pony up roughly $250 Billion total... Their cash reserves sit at 50 billion, but, upon a RV I am sure people will continue to buy sell at the new rate which will likely balance the reserves and if anything possibly increase it.

Foreign Govts likely sit on IQD - but they may hold it as cash reserves for themselves, something to hedge against, consider it an asset, and or use it to purchase crude. Many possibilities there. But, in reality, I doubt they cash-in just like speculators... Because they hold a pretty large sum of the market on what is outside of the country.

CBI has more of that information on hand, and I am sure it is confidential. Everyone has their own opinion and this is just a potential way I see it going down. :)

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