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zul

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Everything posted by zul

  1. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Tq Bros...let's go.
  2. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Iraq has been building up their foreign reserves and this tells me that they are planning (or continue to) to fix the value of their currency in terms of their foreign reserves. Traditionally, countries with floating exchange rate don't have huge foreign reserves. ( Eg. USA foreign currency reserves is only $123.5 billion as of August 2018 vs 1.6 trillion cash in circulation). ( i think)...when IMF suggested to iraq that they need to liberalize their exchange rate ~ a full floating regime is NOT the only option. Iraq could adopt a safer options (in terms of stability) of a managed float exchange rate which consist of a band (a fluctuation range), a basket of currencies (which they have been talking about), and allowing the exchange rates to appreciate or depreciate at a pace under CBI's control. With their huge reconstructions cost (about 80 billion USD), we can expect huge capital surge coming into Iraq over a short period of time and this would put a lot of upward pressure on their exchange rate (IF they were to full float their exchange rate), causing stress and overheating to their economy and a source of deflation which could be disruptive and very harmful to their reconstruction process. I don't think iraq would want that. What I think iraq would do is to RV their currency to a value (eg. Equivalent to 1 USD), thus absorbing the impact of sudden upward pressure to their exchange rate, and then managed float from there........giving them the much needed stability for their reconstruction process. They keyword here is: STABILITY.
  3. On the other hand, it is hard to dismiss anything right now, knowing that they will begin reconstruction of damaged cities anytime now ~ involving investors (not just contractors) from many countries who (i'm sure) will not risk coming into Iraq without Iraq opening her economy to open market (aka IMF art.8) which will turn Iraqi dinar into a convertible currency. They already have their new monetary runway (FML) ready for takeoff. We'll see.....but there's no turning back for me now...
  4. If this does not go down this weekend, I will be here until this RV end of this month.πŸ’ yeehaah!!
  5. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Yeah......any huge movements in a currency will definitely dictate the overall economy’s fortunes....( so says some economist)
  6. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    At $1.20, the currency tail will wag the economic dog.😎
  7. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Can't do this weekend. I have soccer match to play.....lol!! πŸ˜‚.
  8. 11 million banknotes = 110 billion dinar./ Roughly, on the average ~ 10,000 dinar per banknote. It looks like (from the 110 billion dinar deposited banknotes), they don't have that many 25k notes left in the market...... IF that is the case, CBI must have done a great job in reducing the amount of dinar in circulation (of which 25k dinar notes form the biggest part of the total money supply in Iraq). I have seen some gurus (esp. the loppers) saying ~ CBI never reduced the amount of dinar in circulation (as shown by the CBI's statistics ~ under currency in circulation); well....apparently they have been looking at the wrong statistics and at the wrong places.πŸ˜‚ All the notes collected (incl.25k notes), all the reductions of 'cash in circulation' are done by the banks in Iraq and (of course) these amount are reflected in CBI ~ as the bank reserves. That is why we never see reductions in CBI's 'currency in circulation'. **Bank reserves are a commercial bank's holdings of deposits in accounts with a central bank, plus currency that is physically held in the bank's vault.
  9. Hopefully during these consultations, both IMF and Iraq would agree on transition to Art.8. July 19, 2019 Country: Iraq Title: Iraq - 2019 Article IV Consultation
  10. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Yep...... 🍸
  11. Am with u...... Chuck is a respected member here..
  12. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Sneakers on the ground (that's me ) can confirm this is not true..... But it matters not, the value can still change anytime anyday anyway....
  13. In total agreement Sir.... πŸ‘πŸ
  14. Fully operational in Sept. They are already there..... Why wait until Sept? What are they waiting for..? 😊
  15. Yep......2 things. Currency auctions And currency exchange rate.
  16. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    I mean they did the FML....... Hahaha... Cheers!!
  17. zul

    Go Iraq Part 2

    Go Bros..... Like Adam said, this thing cld just pop any day any time now.... Remember: This did the FML and the symposium/seminar on the cost and benefits of changing the value of their currency.
  18. zul

    Go Iraq

    That's the pp I know....
  19. Asian countries that devalued their currencies are mostly exporting economies ~ so it is to their benefits and advantages to have a lower/cheaper currencies. Iraq on the other hand, is like other gulf countries, ~ they are importing economies, so it is more beneficial to have a strong 'high' currency to reduce the 'outflow' of their wealth (aka currency). Iraq is one of the richest country in the world and I simply cannot brain how devaluations could benefit them in the open economy. Jmo.
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