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zul

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Everything posted by zul

  1. And I sincerely think it will cost Iraq even more (being an importing economy) if they continue to stay at the current rate when they have all the opportunities to start with a true value of their currency, coming out from a closed economy (article 14) into an open market where their potential of growth and prosperity are there, waiting to be realised... I simply can't think of any sensible reason why they shd stick to their current 'program' rate.
  2. Tq guys.....both of u are just too kind. I'm glad u both like it. Tq again...
  3. Kap never walk his own theory.... He said the exchange rate of dinar will increase gradually from 1190:1 to 1:1 over a certain period of time ( 6 months, 1 yr or even 2 yrs). 😎 any exchange rate movement from 1190:1 to 1:1, no matter how 'gradual' they are, no matter which way you are looking at it ~ they are going to be huge, massive & enormous. And I think Kap needs to understand, the relationship between exchange rate and economic development.... My main problem with his theory is price stability. The very mainstay of CBI policy and existence (not to mention IMF policy as well). ~ How do you maintain price stability if the exchange rate keeps changing on a daily or weekly basis? ~ then there is domestic borrowings. If today (@exchange rate of 1190), a small trader borrows 5 million dinar (abt. 5000 USD) for a period of 12 months.....how much will he be paying back monthly and how much will he be paying back eventually, 5 million dinar or 5,000 dinar? ~ How often will every government Dept and companies in Iraq, will have to adjust their employees salaries (as the exchange rate keeps changing and increasing)? ~ traders changing their prices everyday day? every week? And jumping onto the bigger issues ~ how do they plan and manage the cost of reconstruction? ~ And how do they purchase their raw materials (when exchange rate is rising)? Do they purchase them now (and pay with more IQDs), or hold it until later (pay with less IQDs). ~ What if every contractor decides to hold until later (until when the exchange rate reach 1:1)? What happens to their reconstruction plan? ~ what if, even the govt decides to hold, as it will more viable to do so economically? Will their economy still be buzzing? What if everybody then decided to keep their money and not spend them now? And then...of course, the currency speculators. What do you think they will do when they see the exchange rate of IQD keep rising and rising on forex? For me, no country will allow these kind of exchange rate uncertainties, hovering over their economies ~ there will be financial chaos. Iraq and IQD is not yet in open market and based on that point alone, we know that the value of IQD was never at equilibrium/true value, so........to avoid financial chaos (in open market), CBI/Iraq need to price their dinar accordingly and as close to market equilibrium as possible and keep it STABLE from then on (allowing appreciations or depreciations within certain range, just like any other countries in the world). We are currently waiting for Iraq to re-price their currency (IQD) before taking the next big step to move into open market. And I sincerely hope, 1190 is not their starting point.
  4. zul

    Go Iraq Part 8

    Hope to see you back to your normal health again my friend, sooner. Take care.
  5. zul

    Go Iraq Part 8

    We are just 3 months away from the beginning of 2020 and I personally think this month is going to be of real significant..../ We have seen too many economic/trade agreements and MOUs being signed, too many statements and indications of moving towards market economy ~ something has to happen soon. Even the usual 'but-this-is-Iraq' is not going stop these changes.
  6. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    Not just me SM, but everyone else will there for u (the Broz and the cuzzs).........we'll take care of one another......u'l be in safe hands. 🍹
  7. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    Al-Ghalbi is describing a neutral event of deleting the zeros like what Zimbabwe, Zambia, Turki, Germany, Brazil ect......have done before. That's what deleting zeros really means ~ in general. We have to look at the situation of those countries, the problem that they faced when they deleted the zeros........ Iraq is diff......they did not lose their wealth (oil) during the war. The value of their currency went down (inflation) because of economic sanctions (chapter 7). When they replaced Saddam dinar in 2003, the value of dinar (IQD) were on the rise from 3000/1 to 1430(ish)/1 by Jan 2004. ( ref: Statiscal data of IQD exchange rate @ cbi.iq) Had CBI not put a brake then (because the value of dinar was rising too fast too soon ~ Read: Billions over Baghdad), I think the value of dinar wld have been 1:1 now (easily). Back to Al-Ghalbi statement above. Who is this guy? Dr. Abdul Hussein Al-Ghalbi, an economist at the Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Kufa. He is not from CBI......and he has a general view of what deleting zeros means, just like some of us here. So we wait for CBI.
  8. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    This is from 2012.......repeat 2012. CBI DID try to delete the zeros starting September 2012...(so it's not necessarily must-be-at-the-beginning-of-a-new year) To cut story short ~ sometime in Jun/July that year, there was major disagreement between Shab and Maliki....and the project was eventually postponed.... (the rest are history). // Parliament is a supreme committee with the central bank to start deleting the zeros 10/03/2012 Baghdad / term follow-up Formed the Economic Committee in the House of Representatives with the Central Bank of Iraq to a joint committee to begin the process of deletion of zeros from the local currency. Said MP Abdul-Hussein Abtan told the Kurdish news agency (Rn) that the Economic Commission formed a joint committee with the Central Bank of Iraq yesterday (Thursday) to oversee the process of deleting the zeros of the local currency Which is scheduled to begin in September next. "He added that" the Commission will provide the technical requirements and legal, administrative and paint the nature of the Iraqi market and its relevance to the deletion of the currency during the stage preceding the start delete currency as well as increase public awareness about the details of the process of removing zeros from the currency. " He pointed out that the central bank, "promised" that he could make a change of currency and delete zeros in order to "reduce inflation" in the country. And the parliamentary economic committee said it had agreed with the Central Bank of Iraq to begin a process of change in the local currency of next September. ~~~ In support of your (lmb4321) Sept timeline../
  9. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    I'll be packing in Sept.... Can't wait to see all the bros and cuzzs...
  10. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    I'm looking to the beginning of 4th quarter.....October. But here's to Sept...🍹 and Maui
  11. This is a clear indication/confirmation that he has nvr been idle. Britain would never have appointed someone who has been out of touch with monetary thinking......too risky. You could almost point a finger to the recent stabilization of Iraqi dinar exchange rate vs USD as his trademark......
  12. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    Remember my name. I'l cover ur back in Maui.....(if I'm sober)
  13. zul

    Go Iraq Part 7

    Bros r nvr down...
  14. Actually German went thru several 'revaluations', can't remember all but in 1961 and 1969, the intention was to kill the problem of 'imported inflation'.
  15. When a country redenominate or restructure their currency, process-wise ~ there's not much diff between lopping and revaluation. Both will come out with a new set of currencies ~ eventually replacing the old ones. Both currencies will co exist for a specified period of time....etc etc. The only diff is: lopping will have two diff exchange rate; one for old and one for new.... While revaluation ~ will have the same exchange rate for both old and new. So from the news, u can't really tell which way they will be going. Whatever they are planning to do with their currency, i hope they will factor in on how to make good the financial losses of the inflation and war, suffered by their people. (Note: German did that in 1961) * Some unfortunate Iraqis actually suffered financial losses when their bank accounts were frozen, and the gov took/used their money to fund the war.... While some others lost their money to inflations (caused by the war). And.........since they are moving towards open economy, i'm sure their monetary policy will not just focus on domestic behaviour (like from 2003 until now), but will be looking outward as well, taking into considerations foreign pressure and how it will affect their country and citizens. Deleting zeros is supposed to be something huge ~ bringing back glory and pride to the country Iraq. I just don't see that much glory if they are planning on a neutral event. That's why I'm still on this crazy horse.
  16. zul

    Go Iraq Part 6

    8-22-2019 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Does anyone actually believe the CBI could RV or RI the dinar at 1 to $1 or greater with an excess of 42 trillion dinars in circulation? That is 3x's the worlds money supply. It simply cannot be done. -------------------------------------------------------- Iraq cannot RV because they have 42 trillion dinar in circulation. 😭Loppers' fav. statement. And now Kaperoni's as well. I'd say they are looking at a very narrow angle. I agree, IF (and that is a big IF), IF there are 42 trillion dinar out there, there is no way Iraq could RV. But.....in the financial world, what you see & what you hear is not always what it is. And we have seen too many examples of this over the years. Currency always represent wealth. Almost every country has a central bank that is in charge of managing the wealth/quantity of money in circulation. In Iraq, the central bank is CBI and the currency is, of course, the dinar. But due to its 'position' and limitations (under Art.14), dinar has not actually reach its full potential of a currency as a medium of exchange, a store of value or as a principal measure of wealth. Not yet. And then..... we have the 'glorious' dollar....fulfilling ALL the role of a real money, 'floating' in the Iraqi market, side by side with the dinar. Now..... ~ What if the policy to allow dinar and dollar floating/operating side by side in the Iraqi market IS by design, to transfer wealth from dinar to dollar. ~ What if pitting the dinar with all its limitations ( under art.14) against the glorious dollar is intentional, so that dollar will reign, thus increasing the demand for dollar instead of dinar; giving CBI the much needed space to restructure/rework their currency. ~ What if CBI already have a mechanism (running) that withdraws IQD from the market.....without disrupting their economic lifeblood (i.e their financial sector). And without attracting too much attentions. ~ What if those 42 trillion (or 35 trillion dinar, quoted by others) are not 'out there' already? (Not all of them...) ~ What if those withdrawn dinar are already in CBI's vaults but not technically classified/reflected as CBI's (assets or liabilities). See....there are other possibilities/angles that they have never looked at (most of which are happening right before their eyes) and yet they are waving the flag of NO RV... Bros, anything to add...?
  17. We have seen circulars/notifications from CBI recently, more than once, reminding commercial banks on the procedures of exchanging currencies (incl. Dollars and Euro)......yeah that's a big deal. And it looks like, they are preparing/expecting massive exchanges in the not-too-distant future. Even if we assumed all the 77% chunky money (in the news) are dinar, I would like to think that most of them are now already sitting in the CBI vaults, as commercial banks reserves ~ collected by the banks, when they (iraqis) exchanged their dinars for dollars. Note: Commercial banks reserves (eventho' they are kept in the central bank vaults) are still considered as M1 (currency in circulation) by the central bank because they still belong to the commercial banks, by definitions.
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