Why the RV is still a couple of years out...

[TimS]

The way most of us wants to see the RV happen is like this.....CBI announces a new $1 per dinar exchange rate less a fixed spread. To keep things simple, we'll say they will hold that rate for 6 months to give time to get all the large note out of circulation....after that, the big notes are worthless. This discourages holding onto the big bills in hopes of reaping a larger exchange rate down the road and so the CBI will know exactly where they stand after those 6 months. So, unless you are not too bright or out of touch with civilization everyone will exchange their dinar within those 6 months. My guess is the dinar will not trade on the Forex until at least after the 6 month period. Then depending upon how the CBI wants to regulate the future rate...fixed or managed float or as the market dictates if they choose that route on the Forex......this really does not matter as far as the initial RV is concerned. That's all speculation and another story....but for our sake, let's concentrate on the initial RV.

So let's say you have 1 million dinar....you go to a bank that is participating in the Iraqi dinar RV and get your $1 million dollars less spread deposited into your new account once the dinar is authenticated as being real. You're happy, it's finally over and you move on with your life....right

What about the average Iraqi citizen...how does the RV work for them? If they have 1 miilion dinar in their mattress or bank account....what do they do? They don't go to an Iraqi bank and exchange their dinar for $1 million US or ask that their bank account reflect dollars instead of dinar...do they? NO. What they do now have is a dinar that has much more purchasing power. If a car cost 20,000,000 dinar (about $20,000us) before the RV, it now costs only 20,000 dinar (about $20,000) after the RV. The Iraqi can buy a lot more with his dinar post RV.

Here's my point.....in order for all this to happen, the Iraqis must get educated and everything has to be ready to get repriced....over night. All this activity is not something easily hidden and kept under wraps. Otherwise, there would be chaos in Iraq after an RV. Who would be looking out for the Iraqis to make sure they aren't getting ripped off by Iraqi businesses the day after an RV. remember this...the RV is for the benefit of the Iraqi people, not foreign investors such as us. The GOI should be looking to take care of the public to make sure all goes smooth for their citizens. As far as I can tell after talking to freinds and others who live in Iraq.....none of this education and price adjustment preparation is taking place now.

I've simplified this as much as possible in hopes of making it easy to understand.....but in my humble opinion, since none of this in country prep seems to be underway I don't see the RV happening for a year or two.

Comments welcome

[umbertino]

I find it sensible... Thanks.

[TimS]

I find it sensible... Thanks.

Thank you...

[Patriotic_mess]

It takes some guts to bring this opinion here and I respect that, but you better get your aluminized fire suit on!

You say they need to educate the people about an RV, do you think the repeated three zero articles are doing just that?

[Biker]

Just my thoughts, i dont no You dont no , the guy next to me dont no . Your thoughts sound good but the thing is we dont no . We all have to sit and wait, it may never happen. But im invested and will stay till they Blow there fricking country up.

[TimS]

It takes some guts to bring this opinion here and I respect that, but you better get your aluminized fire suit on!

You say they need to educate the people about an RV, do you think the repeated three zero articles are doing just that?

We should be seeing much more detail......look at it this way, we have all these experts watching and interpreting the news and analyzing every word and we still haven't come to an agreed upon interpretation of those articles.

No, if it's not crystal clear for us and our experts, it's not crystal clear for them. I'm looking for much more basic info that the Iraqi citizens should be getting in order to deal with an event that will affect every single one of them and their daily lives.

Yah....I know about the suit. People tend to want to torch you if you say anything other than it's gonna be very soon. Sorry....I just don't see it. Wish I did, I've got dinar just like the rest of us.

[Nani?]

It's sensible but still only an opinion... I mean unless your in the country and you know what the average citizen does or doesn't know... honestly it's hard to figure out what the average citizen in our own respective countries do and don't know... really there is so much more opportunity out there that MOST people don't know about because people don't talk to each other and don't help each other out... I guess the trick is knowing the right questions to ask. Either way if pre RV a car cost 20,000,000 dinar I don't think the average Iraqi citizen even has 1,000,000 dinar hidden under their mattress... I assume that they live to make ends meet just like most of us here do. They have to use their money to survive... so as long as they have it ready to go on the market side of things it shouldn't be that difficult where everyone needs some kind of "education" for two years. So instead of hey here is your 500,000 dinar you use to go grocery shopping with here is 500 dinar and you will be able to get just as much... there is the transition in country IMO because then it would be worth the same and then the prices would change accordingly... the value adds when it's no fixed and the value of the currency increases against the dollar. That is the whole reason for 1:1 so that they don't have to use the dollar in country... so even though we would exchange 500,000 dinar for $500,000 the iraqi citizen wouldn't do that, because you don't need Dollars in country you use the new currency. I hope that didn't all get confusing and lost in the sauce... it's just my opinion as well... you could just as well be right TimS but I don't know that Iraq could hold off for that long with everything they are attempting to do.

[blaineage]

Question.....IF (there's that word again) they (CBI) has sucked tons of dinar in as advertised. This leaves little (in percentage terms) of dinar not held electronically. There are still billions held by us and the average wacky Iraqi. After RV the electronic ones are taken care of because of the new pegged rate. The New dinars to be issued in the future as physical currency take care of that disparity, and the average Iraqi who now has large notes will have increased purchasing power unless on day one banks in country get de-dollarized by law. am I wrong?

[fnbplanet]

I'm just not sure how you arrived at one to two years out. I don't agree with you on that part, as I believe that they aren't just "wingin' it" through the currency change thing.

I believe that there is a plan, IMF, UN, Shabibbi, MoF, Rothschilds - I don't know. There is a plan. I believe part of the plan is to keep it as much of a secret for as long as they can, for obvious reasons that I'm sure that even you agree with. I believe they, with whoever is helping them with this plan, are smarter than we come to assume they are. I GUESS, that they could roll out an RV (as you propose), with all of the educational needs, small denominations, extra staff, and adjustments to financial transactions (loans, ISX, etc. within seven days of the official "GO" order - my guess. While it is THEIR decision, I believe that they have an awful lot of help behind the scenes.

Again, just not on board with the "year or two" thing.

[mrref]

Opinions, opinions, and more opinions..I've been hearing opinions for the past 81/2 years

[TAV]

No one knows

Edited March 16, 2012 by TAV

[TimS]

It's sensible but still only an opinion... I mean unless your in the country and you know what the average citizen does or doesn't know... honestly it's hard to figure out what the average citizen in our own respective countries do and don't know... really there is so much more opportunity out there that MOST people don't know about because people don't talk to each other and don't help each other out... I guess the trick is knowing the right questions to ask. Either way if pre RV a car cost 20,000,000 dinar I don't think the average Iraqi citizen even has 1,000,000 dinar hidden under their mattress... I assume that they live to make ends meet just like most of us here do. They have to use their money to survive... so as long as they have it ready to go on the market side of things it shouldn't be that difficult where everyone needs some kind of "education" for two years. So instead of hey here is your 500,000 dinar you use to go grocery shopping with here is 500 dinar and you will be able to get just as much... there is the transition in country IMO because then it would be worth the same and then the prices would change accordingly... the value adds when it's no fixed and the value of the currency increases against the dollar. That is the whole reason for 1:1 so that they don't have to use the dollar in country... so even though we would exchange 500,000 dinar for $500,000 the iraqi citizen wouldn't do that, because you don't need Dollars in country you use the new currency. I hope that didn't all get confusing and lost in the sauce... it's just my opinion as well... you could just as well be right TimS but I don't know that Iraq could hold off for that long with everything they are attempting to do.

You actually strengthen my point......as for the car, that was just an easy math example. I could have used a loaf of bread at 5,000 dinar would then only cost 5 dinar after the RV.

You mention the new lower denoms that would come out......good point, but let's not forget the Iraqi's bank account......one day they have 5,000,000 dinar in the bank, the next day they only have 5,000. The ramifications of the RV on the average Iraqi citizen are huge and the population must be educated with great detail and care for it to work properly.....or there could be mass riots in the streets.

What if the US government was touting an increased value of the dollar that would benefit us tremendously....don't you think they would be explaining to us how it would affect us, our bank accounts, our physical currency and our new purchasing power in great detail......why expect the Iraqis to do less?

Again....JMHO ...food for thought

[Psych]

I respect this post...we could be out a couple years. However, I don't think the Cbi will advertise the RV. There has been a zillion articles about the three zeros. This is the education of the masses with probably more to come. IMO, if the new currency hits the street, we will finally be able to put this RV speculation to bed. My money is on September.

[okane]

Some of this has been brought up before, the loaf of bread, the car. I even recall seeing an Iraqi version of Craigslist or Ebay that had used cars listed. They were priced right in line with used cars in the States. I think that imports are effected but joe citizen doesn't see much of the impact on a daily basis. No more than we do when the USD drops or increases. It does not matter much to us or them, UNLESS you are dealing in currency as an investment, traveling or working directly in international/foreign trade.

[one2one]

with the new small denom's coming out :

that is a ' sign ' of an rv soon :

a small denom bill will not buy hardly anything at the current value

Edited March 16, 2012 by one2one

[carlos in san diego]

TimS:

I disagree with you evaluation in most areas. First off, we have been told that there are many countries around the world whose currencies need to be adjusted either upwards or downward, and we have been told this for a long time. These countries have been patiently waiting for the event to happen and their economies and peoples have been suffering financial losses due to these inbalances. We have been told this also.

Anybody that has been following the financial markets over the last couple of years, especially on this and other sites, certainly must have become aware of this by now. Perhaps TimS and others have not read this before now. There is no telling who reads what when it comes out. We all have info gaps to deal with.

The number of countries that have been in a holding pattern vary greatly depending on who is providing the information. The sources and numbers are too many to try and remember, among these sources are the UN and IMF, you can believe the numbers you choose, because this is not my point. My point is, that although Iraq was not counted on the official IMF or UN list of countries awaiting an RV. My guess is that they should actually occupy the first place on the list. I would assume that they are not listed on purpose.

My guess is the purpose of keeping the dinar out of the official list to keep speculators from driving up the price of the dinar through the normal supply and demand, if there is a run on the dinar and it becomes scarse the price must rise and Iraq will be forced to acknowledge the increase and it will pressure the CBI/GOI to come off the programmed rate and they do not want to do this prematurely. The rate is programmed for a reason.

Recent news has also told us that the Federal Reserve is going away, along with the Federal Reserve Note we now hold. It is to be replaced with a "US Treasury Note" That will be worth 60% of what our current worthless dollar is now worth. We have also been told that the Fed is fighting the move, justifiably so, the clowns hopefully will wind up behind bars with "bubba" as a cell mate! (hopefully!) We have not been told, as far as I remember when this is to happen.

Taking this event into consideration, and realising that the world currency re-alignment is awaiting something....would it be too big of a stretch of the imagination to assume that what the world is waiting for is for the Dollar to be replaced? We have been told many times that the event will include all countries at one time, my guess Iraq is among them,

I don't think a person in Iraq needs to be told more than once to understand that his currency is worth a lot more, I doubt he will really need a massive educational campaign, and this is certainly not what is holding up the process. IMO

Carlos

[Biker]

I myself don't think it will be to hard to explain to the people. If they are used to using US money and they no what it will buy, alls the news to the people will be is this. Hay folks the new money coming out will be = to the US money you have now. But we have coins to like the US does. How hard is that to figure out.The Exchange rate is what we want to see , Like they been saying 1 to 1. So they just keep on keeping on.

[cash1324]

I disagree with you,I tend to think on Adams timeline of now till September.The Iraqi public will learn pretty quick once it RVs.Word of month is the best form of communication.If a merchant is brave enough to try and rip the general public off i don't think he would live long enough to enjoy it.Just my opinion

Edited March 16, 2012 by cash1324

[Dinar Buddy]

WHO ARE THE EXPERT?? THE GURUS... WRONG

[magawatt]

I totally agree with Biker. And "lifting" the zeros off a price tag with a black

magic marker doesn't take an MBA.

[easyrider]

I wil respectfully disagree Tim. You have to ask yourself are they gonna wait 2 more years to issue out the lower denoms plus inflation. Answer is NO. When those LD's hit the streets its a wrap Tim they MUST revalue their currency theres no other way around it. Whats the point of coming out with lower denoms and having no value on them? its pointless. The time is this year and thats my story and im sticking to it.

[BrokeNoMore]

I disagree with you,I tend to think on Adams timeline of now till September.The Iraqi public will learn pretty quick once it RVs.Word of month is the best form of communication.If a merchant is brave enough to try and rip the general public off i don't think he would live long enough to enjoy it.Just my opinion

I totally agree with this idea. They still have a barbaric system of justice over there. Not like here, where someone can steal you blind, you scream bloody murder and nobody cares. Here you only get punished if you offend the elite.

Over there...you can bet there wouldn't be much in their face thievery. They take matters into their own hands.

[TimS]

Some of this has been brought up before, the loaf of bread, the car. I even recall seeing an Iraqi version of Craigslist or Ebay that had used cars listed. They were priced right in line with used cars in the States. I think that imports are effected but joe citizen doesn't see much of the impact on a daily basis. No more than we do when the USD drops or increases. It does not matter much to us or them, UNLESS you are dealing in currency as an investment, traveling or working directly in international/foreign trade.

Completely disagree....the whole point of the RV is to increase the purchasing power of the dinar for the Iraqis....not to make currency speculators rich.

[quadkidd1]

Just and opinion.....

AM has a different opinion....

Ask 300 people and get many more opinions.........

I am here to remain POSITIVE.

Not an Okie believer either......................... but.................. there is NO shortage of negative opinions on the net...................... and that is why I stay around DV.

Here's the deal.

GO RV...

And that's MY opinion!

Period!

Quad

[BrokeNoMore]

I wil respectfully disagree Tim. You have to ask yourself are they gonna wait 2 more years to issue out the lower denoms plus inflation. Answer is NO. When those LD's hit the streets its a wrap Tim they MUST revalue their currency theres no other way around it. Whats the point of coming out with lower denoms and having no value on them? its pointless. The time is this year and thats my story and im sticking to it.

How do you think they're going to hit the street?

Won't they be distributed to banks, and people/merchants get them because they need them?

I think they most likely will sit in the banks until the RV, at which time, there will be long lines to exchange.

Otherwise, they're going to have to tell them in advance when the rate will change.

If it takes 5K dinar to buy a loaf of bread now, why on earth would I get change for 1 Dinar or even 50 Dinar now? SWIM?

Not that I'm suggesting that it is 2 years, as the OP suggested. I think it will pop this summer/fall.