Why the RV is still a couple of years out...

[Saint]

yak, yak, yak. All this new news is all old news. It's so much fun to just sit around and speculate. I for one invested for the long term and so, I am waiting to see. When it happens it happens. Only the Iraqi government knows and that is really reaching, because they change it all the time. To make all this happen they must all be able to sit in one room and actually agree on something. In the meantime this little guy is going to wait it out.

[TimS]

I wil respectfully disagree Tim. You have to ask yourself are they gonna wait 2 more years to issue out the lower denoms plus inflation. Answer is NO. When those LD's hit the streets its a wrap Tim they MUST revalue their currency theres no other way around it. Whats the point of coming out with lower denoms and having no value on them? its pointless. The time is this year and thats my story and im sticking to it.

I agree...if the lower denoms come out, it must be because the RV took place or will take place shortly afterwards cause lower denoms would be worthless at the current rate.

But....they are not out, so we shall see......"when" is the question

[easyrider]

How do you think they're going to hit the street?

Won't they be distributed to banks, and people/merchants get them because they need them?

I think they most likely will sit in the banks until the RV, at which time, there will be long lines to exchange.

Otherwise, they're going to have to tell them in advance when the rate will change.

If it takes 5K dinar to buy a loaf of bread now, why on earth would I get change for 1 Dinar or even 50 Dinar now? SWIM?

Not that I'm suggesting that it is 2 years, as the OP suggested. I think it will pop this summer/fall.

im talking about when the banks distribute them to the people they have to give a window for the people to exchnage the old notes for new ones so then they must have revalued before hand.

[TimS]

Just and opinion.....

AM has a different opinion....

Ask 300 people and get many more opinions.........

I am here to remain POSITIVE.

Not an Okie believer either......................... but.................. there is NO shortage of negative opinions on the net...................... and that is why I stay around DV.

Here's the deal.

GO RV...

And that's MY opinion!

Period!

Quad

Why do you want to limit yourself to positive or negative......what's wrong with realistic???

[BrokeNoMore]

I'm talking about when the banks distribute them to the people they have to give a window for the people to exchange the old notes for new ones so then they must have revalued before hand.

Do you think we'll know when the lower denoms hit the banks?

[easyrider]

Do you think we'll know when the lower denoms hit the banks?

Yes, someone will know theres no hiding that. Once its public, its off to the races.

Edited March 16, 2012 by easyrider

[TimS]

with the new small denom's coming out :

that is a ' sign ' of an rv soon :

a small denom bill will not buy hardly anything at the current value

The small notes are not out....."when" is the operative word. We shall see

[BrokeNoMore]

The small notes are not out....."when" is the operative word. We shall see

See, I think that's a huge thing that must be done first. They can't go calling the RV when there aren't lower denominations to distribute.

The real question is, how long can they sit in the banks before they revalue?

[TimS]

Yes, someone will know theres no hiding that. Once its public, its off to the races.

I agree again....and since that info has not been found out, we can assume the banks don't have the lower denoms, yet. A lot of people "want" this RV badly, including me.....but that doesn't mean I can't look at the history of this thing and say, things just don't add up just yet.

Some say the lower denoms have already been printed, at same time new larger denoms we have were printed. Some say the lower denoms have not been printed and articles suggest the design of them including Kurdish langauge on them has not been finalized? I don't klnow for fact which is true....do you?

If the LD's have not even been printed yet, my timeline seems more realistic......if they are sitting around somewhere, they might be distributed soon to their banks and as you suggest, it won't be a secret for long and we should know. But for now, it does not appear that the LD's are ready to be handed out.

Opinions, opinions, and more opinions..I've been hearing opinions for the past 81/2 years

So you are used to it....great to know. Looks like you'll be hearing them for a little longer

[bodiddily]

I have seen nothing that would indicate that the new currency (minus the zero's) will be treated any differently in country or internationally, this may not be what the majority on these forums wish to contemplate, but in my opinion this is exactly what they will do.

[jon29]

The enormity of large notes out there, the lower denom's coming out, their desire to maintain control by keeping their people 'average class' instead over overnight millionaires, inflation, and other issues, seems to bolster the .10 usd initial exchange rate that Adam has mentioned, imo. Furthermore, I'm not buying this angle that since the Iraqi's are uneducated, they will need a lot of time to rethink their commerce. B.S. I've not been to Iraq, but have lived in other countries where the open markets and haggling down to the last penny was the daily life. I'm sure these people are very shrewd and will pick up on the new exchange rate and values with lightening speed. Lest we forget, there have been people in our own country who have had no formal education, yet have amassed millions and produced thriving businesses through nothing more than a strong will and 'street smarts'.

[dinarslave]

I believe there is a reason that Iraq appears to be on a fast track with laws being passed in the last 6 months at a record pace in comparrison to the last 8+ years. We also can't forget the inflation beast that is looming on Iraq's economy. I also believe that the whole education process supports a 1:1 RV as it will make the RV an easy transition for the people eliminating the majority of education required. In addition there appears to be more cooperation between the factions of Iraq than ever before and it feels as though from many articles that there is something really pushing all of this along. I'm in the now til September prediction because it just makes sense.

[jon29]

btw: I don't think this will go another 2 years with the way things are going, more than likely, it will pop this year.

[TimS]

Carlos

I'm not talking about small value changes in a currency that ocur daily bcause of inflation and Forex market demand.....we;re talking about a 1000 to 3000% change in value.....certainly you are not equating the two?

And, I'm only stating my opinion based on what I see in the news, history and my knowledge of the brokerage industry which includes some currency trading. You made a statement of fact....the RV is not being held up because the Iraqis need educating of the process! Great....where did you see that info posted? Had I known that fact was out there, it would have belayed all my uncertainties.

Obviously, you disagree...that's okay by me. I'm just trying to see all the sides instead of jumping on the band wagon just for the sake of taking a ride. I would rather make an attempt to see all the options and possible destinations before taking that trip.....don't like the ones that end up going over a cliff

[easyrider]

I believe there is a reason that Iraq appears to be on a fast track with laws being passed in the last 6 months at a record pace in comparrison to the last 8+ years. We also can't forget the inflation beast that is looming on Iraq's economy. I also believe that the whole education process supports a 1:1 RV as it will make the RV an easy transition for the people eliminating the majority of education required. In addition there appears to be more cooperation between the factions of Iraq than ever before and it feels as though from many articles that there is something really pushing all of this along. I'm in the now til September prediction because it just makes sense.

I'm in the camp of a 1:1 also. This will indeed make transactions easier due to the fact they have 2 prices as of now. One of usd and one for IQD a 1:1 would only simplify that transition and make is easier on the people and the merchants to handle.

Edited March 16, 2012 by easyrider

[Laid Back]

The reality is that no one knows......We're guessing.

Thanks for the post..

[geman]

Completely disagree....the whole point of the RV is to increase the purchasing power of the dinar for the Iraqis....not to make currency speculators rich.

Yes Tim eventually it is, but first it's to get them use to using there currency then increasing the value. So what easier way to do that then to MATCH the value of the currency there using now . and if there are a few Iraci citizens that were able to stash a few big bills then good for them. But I don't think the majority can afford to do that. JMO

thanks for your time.

[quadkidd1]

Why do you want to limit yourself to positive or negative......what's wrong with realistic???

Tim S

Nothing personal but I see my opinion as realistic as I am sure you do the same.

Quad

[jasondb17]

And, I'm only stating my opinion based on what I see in the news, history and my knowledge of the brokerage industry which includes some currency trading.

When in history has anyone been able to invest in such large amount of foreign currency, especially coming out of war?

[sheepdog]

TimS: I agree with you because, I recall Shabibi said something similar to this using different words, but same message, in Sept. 2011 at the Jackson,WY financial summit meeting. He said it would be years before they could get all the banks up to speed, train all employees and most of all, familiarize the whole population to become educated with all the new money changes that would be taking place with the RV. he said mimimum time would be 2013.

[jmw]

you are correct with regards to the complications of a RV...and the car is a good example...but what happens to the local camel purchased?...it isn't imported so would it's value change?...also, what about loan are all of them adjusted based on a currency exchange rate change?...and if you think they will be adjusted...at what point?...if it goes up 50%?...100%?....100,000%?...and if you have a an electricity bill due and it RV do you pay the rate on the bill which could be 100,000 dinar or do you pay based on the new exchange rate? To increase the value overnight by a significant amount (in excess of 30%) would cause massive challenges....so imagine one that is 100,000%.

[RodandStaff]

This is not a pun on the other thread I have going right now, but... are you a little gun shy?

I hear people pull numbers out of thin air and act like they are some kind of authority... no disrespect, but if it doesn't go down like you plan will you still claim it will take "another two years"??? Listen, it won't take as long as you think to get things in order... and yes, that is my opinion. After all, as smart as some folks think they are.... one opinion is about as good as another in most cases. When it comes to people's pocket books though it's amazing how quickly the learning curve can be overcome! Let's give this time to play out without always trying to belittle folks for thinking it won't happen for "whatever time you have deemed it should take". Have a little faith man, seriously. If it don't happen sooner... that's alright, but what are you really gaining by constantly throwing statements around like this??? Well, unless... let's see...yeah, maybe ... ummmm... maybe you work for an organization that doesn't want folks having dinar... gee.. I wonder??? Have a good day now!

Why do you want to limit yourself to positive or negative......what's wrong with realistic???

In the pioneer day's, going west "realist's" stayed behind, or only ventured part way .... only the people who stayed focused on their goal hung in there to the end were able to fulfill their dreams of a better way of life... I for one am in this to the end, and imo it won't take as long as some folks think!

Come On RV Baby!!!

[magawatt]

This may be simplistic but it appears that very day the CBI is pulling billions of dinars out of circulation and placing hundreds of million dollars into circulation. Think of dollars as training for a 1:1 RV- if the street markets can deal with dollars they will be fine with RV'd dinars. So then, with the dinar a little more valuable than the dollar the Iraqis will happily trade dollars back to the CBI for dinars. The dinar has real value, those pesky dollars are off the street, life is good and Dr. S. gets his Nobel Prize.

[Francie26]

I mean no disrespect to you either, Tim, but your modus operandi is to be negative, and you are obviously intelligent, so you can think of a plethora of ways to throw cold water on everyones' dreams. Since you have done this ever since I first came to DV, I can only assume you are driven to see only the negative, and to call your view just being "realistic." But it is just as realistic to see the possiblity of an RV tomorrow as it is to see it in two years, especially since the Iraqi government, Maliki, and others now seem so driven to get all the necessary steps taken and all the necessary things done fast. I remember watching what Maliki and Allawi did when they danced around each other at Christmas in 2010, and wondering then if this RV could ever happen. But an incredible amount has changed since then, and they are actually showing us that they really can get things done when they want to do so. Sure, there are a very few things that are not absolutely finished, lacking only one or two tiny steps to complete, but I think all of that will be completed all at once, and it will immediately will be followed by the RV. As to your constant harangue about the RV not happening for a couple of years, it makes me feel like you are afraid of it. I don't pretend to understand that, but you need to remember that you'll be alright. Just richer, that's all.

Also, Tim, don't underestimate the Iraqi people. They have adjusted to so much, more than most of us can even imagine. They will catch on to this quickly once it happens. We would if it were us. Just imagine the dollar changing in value suddenly, actually overnight, and how all of us would have to get used to it fast. We could do it, and so can they.

[carlos in san diego]

Carlos

I'm not talking about small value changes in a currency that ocur daily bcause of inflation and Forex market demand.....we;re talking about a 1000 to 3000% change in value.....certainly you are not equating the two?

And, I'm only stating my opinion based on what I see in the news, history and my knowledge of the brokerage industry which includes some currency trading. You made a statement of fact....the RV is not being held up because the Iraqis need educating of the process! Great....where did you see that info posted? Had I known that fact was out there, it would have belayed all my uncertainties.

Obviously, you disagree...that's okay by me. I'm just trying to see all the sides instead of jumping on the band wagon just for the sake of taking a ride. I would rather make an attempt to see all the options and possible destinations before taking that trip.....don't like the ones that end up going over a cliff

TimS: You did not understand my meaning....You are saying the Iraqi Dinar will take two years to RV...That's impossible! I'm not talking about pips on the forex. I feel the global picture has been overlooked, as this is not in the hands of Iraq. They will RV with the other countries that are set to RV. We have been told this will be ONE global event, and I think they are right.

How much? When? Good questions...nobody knows! People are stuck like a broken record on the concept of only Iraq needing to RV. This is just not the case. I feel that the only holdup is here with the Federal Reserve that does not want to relinquish it's stranglehold on the American people and the world's economy. They must "cease and descist" sooner or later. Then we can expect our world currency re-alignment! Not before!

Carlos

Edited March 16, 2012 by carlos in san diego