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Adam Montana

Adam Montana Weekly 20 January 2016

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Good day everyone, and Happy Wednesday!

 

First thing on my mind is the date today - January 20th. We know that they were 

intending to meet yesterday to discuss the HCL, and it looks like they did meet 

(another miracle in Iraq, a meeting held on time!) - but we are not privy yet to the 

outcome of said meeting. As much as I'd love to say I have inside info, I don't at 

this time other than a few mentions that they will be addressing it again tomorrow.

 

:fingerscrossed:

 

The Budget was also not published in the Gazette, but that doesn't bother me. It 

was stated that their deficit is 74 Billion dollars. Friends, that is 1/10th of a single 

Trillion. NOT A LOT OF MONEY in the grand scheme of it all!

 

My thought right now is that the price of oil might be scaring people. Iraq can 

handle $30-60ppb, but if this dropping trend continues... I hate to say it, but it

might be in their best interest to hold off and see what happens. Let's hope the

price stabilizes or even starts to go back up.

 

One interesting thing to note - when they do RV, it will generate a TON of activity

in the world economy, which will increase demand for oil, and will help drive oil

back up. So all they need to see is an upward trend in the oil price and BAM! Jump

in with an RV and take advantage! I can see that happening.

 

:twocents:

 

Those are my thoughts for now! Here's the weekly Q's: 

 

 

 

Tom73 Adam with Crude oil hanging  around $30 a barrel and the Iranian's Military inside Iraq causing problems do you still believe that Iraq is stable enough to RV and have enough money for there budget?

I like you want to be part of the RV. I am a relative newbie to the investment; 2008. Trying to keep the faith.
Take Care Sir

 

 

Yes I do. :twothumbs:

 

 

new york kevin Did they print the budget in the Gazette yet? 

 

 

Nope, not yet... 

 

Shedagal I know you have told us before, but I researched and didn't find where you said it.  When the dinar RVs, will this site become a VIP only site, or will you continue to leave the site open for communication?  I know there are some very active posters on this site that don't appear to be VIP.  Appreciate you, Adam!!

 

 

Hi Shedegal,

 

The free side will remain online. This community is too strong to just take 

it down! I'd never do that. :)

 

However, my involvement in the non-VIP side of things will fade away so 

I can be devoted to the VIP areas. 

 

:twothumbs:

 

 

BJinMontreal Hey Adam,  Are we there yet? I don't think I can hold it any longer!!!

Seriously - thanks for all you and the mods do to give us a safe, happy place to play!!

Speaking of playing ... I don't think you can ask much more from Aaron ... Two 60 yard bombs to tie the game in regulation ... Well, there's always next year!

Now, is there any way we can trade up so we can draft GregHi instead of Luigi ... o_O ... ?

 

 

There is always next year :twothumbs:

 

 

bringam Hi Adam -  I've been daydreaming, thinking ahead to what happens after we get that thrilling message from you and subsequent directions on what to do next.  I'm picturing that I may be taking my dinar currency to a bank that you point us to.  I'd then have to hand it over to some bank employee to "verify" (?!!) or check the authenticity or some such.  Then I would have tax forms or other paperwork to sign, and hopefully they would deposit a lot of bucks in my account.  Do you think it would go something like that?  Obviously I'm nervous about handing over my currency and not getting ripped off.  I'm wondering if there is something I can do to prepare - I've opened an account with a big name bank - I think they will have resources that my local bank doesn't and that might be important for post-RV cash-in. I've also made copies of all my currency so I have records of all the serial numbers.  Is there anything else you can suggest or let us know what to expect?

Thanks very much.

 

 

 

bringam, yes - something like that. :)

 

Have you read the "Cash In Guide"? It's short, I'll attach it to this post!

 

:twothumbs:

 

 

 

TexasMike1958 Hello Adam.  We waited about a month for the next Parliament session to begin. Full of hope and expectation, only to have them meet for a short time and postpone their session until Thursday or maybe the middle of next week, depending on what article you read.  This is beyond discouraging and frustrating.  I just want to scream.  Is there any hope these people will get  this done and do what is right for their nation??? How on earth can they sleep at night knowing their people are suffering while they sleep in their beds and sugarplums dance in their heads???  What positive news could come out of this mess???

 

 

:lol: Take it easy friend! Good things take time, and they aren't concerned 

with your lack of patience.

 

:shrug:

 

 

WISKY291 Adam,  Does the Dinar need to be traded internationally before it RV's? 

 

 

Not at all! In fact, an RV before international trading begins would make everyone 

rush to start trading it, two things are very possible:

 

1. If they choose to float the rate, it will go up.

 

2. If they choose a locked rate, then it will just get stronger.

 

Both are good. :twothumbs:

 

Hellifiknow oil....with sanctions lifted and a glut of iran oil about to hit market...in spite of saudi objectins...the ppb for crude may hit historic lows.

iraq re-enters oil market

iraq...another glut of now iraqi oil hits market.

oil prices drop even further than historic lows !!

who in the crude selling business would want now or in near future iraqi's billions of barrels to hit market and lower ppb even lower.

is it in worlds best interest to allow all that iraqi oil to hit market and drive what are historic lows for a barrel of oil even lower ??

im a nocice at best but....doesnt sound to me like anyone is gonna want all that iraqi oil to hit open market any time soon.

go rv !?!?!?

 

 

I don't think anyone has a choice at this time - it's happening, and the market 

is reacting accordingly. That's just how things work.

 

Who's going to surround Iraq and force them to keep their oil? Actually, I think 

we might be one of the only groups of people on the planet that thinks lower 

oil prices is a BAD thing!

 

:lmao:

 

 

 

Candy01 Hi Adam,  I can't understand how they made the tariffs effective on Monday, 1/18/16, yet they have not raised the value of the Dinar.  I thought the RV had to happen before this?

Thanks Much!

:shrug:

 

 

There is no law that states a particular thing has to happen before any other 

particular thing. 

 

outlawclg Do you have the contact info for the people in charge of The Gazette? I have been trying to get ahold of them to see when they will publish the budget. The only thing they tell me is soon...how about you?  ;)

 

 

At least they are telling you "soon". When I call them they keep answering "Psychic Hotline,

you have the wrong number"... and then they hang up.

 

:( 

 

 

Cash In Guide - Iraqi Dinar - v1.6.pdf

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Quote

 

BJinMontreal Hey Adam,  Are we there yet? I don't think I can hold it any longer!!!

Seriously - thanks for all you and the mods do to give us a safe, happy place to play!!

Speaking of playing ... I don't think you can ask much more from Aaron ... Two 60 yard bombs to tie the game in regulation ... Well, there's always next year!

Now, is there any way we can trade up so we can draft GregHi instead of Luigi ... o_O ... ?

 

 

There is always next year  :twothumbs:

 Though our Packers played valiantly BJ has "offered" to help me get my "Ship together" in another thread...maybe he could lend a hand and help tweek a few things for the Green and Gold for next season!!!  :eyebrows:   :cheesehead: 

Bluenose-4s1.jpg

 

Sandfly again for another well grounded but hopeful post "Big Cheese"!!!  :cheesehead:

Edited by RodandStaff

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I'm a die hard Packer fan Booster... :cheesehead:  But I do like Peyton Manning, he's a class act...but if I gotta pick one remaining team it's the one that can do this for a little girl...just sayin'!!!  :wub: 

12494734_10153595676881263_5907616505981

Edited by RodandStaff
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Does anyone remember OPEC?  I can't help but think they'll step in to help curb the falling PPB. If I recall they've done it at least once before in my life time. (My memory fails, was it in the late 70s or mid 80s?) Hold on to the crude barrels and control export to maintain a certain price. The key was that every nation that was a member of OPEC had to be on the same page, and if I recall this caused a lot of tension with a great number of countries who relied on OPEC oil.

While it might hurt Joe Consumer, it would certainly be good for us. 

Edited by Nuki
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Aaawwwww  poor Green Bay.  Are there no true Patriots here?  Am I the only one?  I doubt it.  We seem to win by the skin of our teeth too.  I'm sure the NFL wants to see one more Brady/Manning match-up.

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The international ratings agency , Fitch, issued its first rating on Iraq sovereign debt, giving it the fifth worst junk grade due in part to the cost of the civil conflict and the global slump in oil prices. Iraq's fiscal position has deteriorated rapidly since 2013 and Fitch forecasts a double digit fiscal deficit. Political risk and insecurity are among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch. Savings buffers built during previous years of high oil prices have been largely eroded and the deficit will be financed by debt, likely including a Eurobond and funding through an IMF rapid financing instrument.

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Ok, see if you can splain this to me Lucy.  Why would anyone (IMF) loan money to Iraq if they didn't think they would ever get it back?  I know that kind of money works in mysterious ways but I thought the IMF always worked their loans so they would be repaid.  Only us (USA) gives $ away without need for repayment.  If Iraq is in such financial throes and can't pay their bills why would the IMF loan them money they probably will never get back based on the information we have?  Make any sense to any of you out there?

 

 And by the way, whoever gave me a plus 1 greenie for my last post, I would like to say thank you.  I didn't think it was really that good but then again maybe you are a closet Patriot.  You can come out now.  You can say you're a True American Patriot.  No one will ever know that you are also a New England fan.  In reality, everyone is but they hang on to the other teams or there wouldn't be an NFL and New England wouldn't have anyone to play.  No more Brady/Manning matchups.  I hate to say this, but either one.  Too bad we couldn't have a Montana/Brady matchup, prime time.  I've looked back probably 75 years and I think Montana was the best QB ever and Brady close behind.  So who is your favorite QB of all time?  And just the facts Ma'am.  If you don't like a QB, so what, you don't like him.  Doesn't mean he isn't or wasn't good.  And yes I know many of you will tell me that Brady and the Patriots cheat.  How many QB's came out afterward and said they did the same thing for how many years?  I will accept that fact so let's don't dwell on it.  You can add it to your post if it makes you feel better.

 

PS  I'm just doing this to spice Adams weekly chat since it's been a little slow lately.  Hope that's ok with you Adam.  If not, feel free to delete me, buddy.

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haha Nope! No deleting here!

 

I'm a Green Bay Packer fan first and foremost, but this year I was also rooting like crazy for the Panthers to have a perfect season. Why not?! Winning is something that should be rewarded, celebrated, and sought after! I like the Patriots for the same reason - not because I'm a "bandwagoner", but because I celebrate achievements and people can say "Oh I hate the Patriots" barggg barggg bargggg... whatever, man :lol: Go wallow in your pity, I don't have time for it. I like - no, I LOVE - to see winners winning. So yeah, I'm a Patriots fan. In fact, I've bet the over and the Patriots against the spread (for you non-bettors, that means they had to score a lot and beat the odds) every single game this season as a blind bet... and I'm ahead. I started doing the same thing with Carolina about halfway through, and... I'm ahead.

 

It doesn't always work that way, but I love it when it does! :D

 

There isn't one NFL team that I don't like, there are only teams that I don't really pay attention to. You're a Browns fan? That's cool, I'm a Packers fan, let's watch some football! Oh, you don't like the Packers? Why not? Did they personally rob you of your lunch money as a kid? Nope, didn't think so! Grow up... 

 

:D

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That's what I like Adam.  And I mean really like.  Good clean competition and especially when everyone is at their peak.  I have always said, in regards to the NFL, that whoever makes the best adjustments at halftime will almost always win the game.  That point has been proven over and over again, repeatedly, just like this sentence.  Since this is football season I guess we'll stick to football analogies.  Personally, I like to watch the whole spectrum work from the front office all the way down to the coaches and players.  Everybody has to tick to have a winning season let alone a championship one.  I think Pete Carroll missed just one tick all season last year and it cost him a Super Bowl.  From Trump to Chump in 7 seconds.

 

Hey Adam, you didn't pick your best QB of all time.  It's ok.  It's not a date and rate pick.  And there's no pressure and no right or wrong.  Just an opinion and you're guaranteed to be right, at least in your own mind.  But if you pick Joe Montana, you can have a new best friend, (me), somebody who agrees with you, (me), and you can still get the same shoes as the best QB that ever played the game (skechers).  Enjoy

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Geez Adam, they didn't even show the ball going in the hole.  They didn't even fake it, just a sound effect.  Did Mr. Matt play HS QB somewhere?  At first I would say you were dodging the question.  Now I would have to say you are ignoring it/me.  Hahaha   Just like being married.  Perfect.  Except you don't get to choose when.  At least here I can choose when to come to this site, to be ignored.

 

Is there an answer to the first part of my original post about the IMF lending Iraq money?  Ignore?

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    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning DV!
       
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      GOOOOO RRRRVVVVVV!!!!!
       
       
       
       
    • By Adam Montana
      Goooood morning DV!
       
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    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning all!
       
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      ======== Quoted post below: =======
       
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      We Wait.
       
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      Go Moola Nova!

       
    • By Adam Montana
      Good evening DinarVets and all you beautiful members! (Same happy greeting to you ugly ones, as well ) 
       
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      At least, not overnight on a night that was on the calendar in the past. When it happens, it will certainly look like an "overnight" event to the outsiders and those that missed the boat.
       
      BIG PICTURE TIME.
       
      There are a lot of moving parts here, but the biggest thing we're waiting on right now is the HCL.
       
      There are a bunch of articles and news related to HCL, and I'm even getting some very encouraging private messages from my contacts about the progress, but the bottom line right now is this:
       
      HCL has not been concluded at this time.
       
      Therefore we have no RV...
       
      ... yet.
       
      Yet, we have reason to keep hanging on, and if I may be so bold... we have a damn good reason for it.
       
      Iraq’s currency price is based on their ability to sell it to other countries, just like any other country with a tradable currency. Their ability to sell their currency is determined by what other countries will pay for it - this is the basic concept of supply and demand. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, no more and no less. In the currency exchange game, stronger demand for a currency will create a larger market, which pushes the price up. In order for Iraq to raise the "sell" price of their currency, they have to create a strong market for it.
       
      If they don't have a strong market, then we could never have a chance of an RV.
       
      That is not the case. We DO have a strong market.
       
      If Iraq wasn't making progress towards stability and strength, we would have no chance of an RV.
       
      That is also not the case. Iraq IS moving in the right direction.
       
      They are doing it by solidifying their government and stabilizing their perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.
       
      That's really all this comes down to, after all. 
       
      Iraq's ability to raise the value of their currency is based on the perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.
       
      This is exactly why the value of the Dinar dropped to pennies on the dollar in such a short time when it did. When Iraq was invaded and their government toppled, the world (traders, experts, everyone) had reason to doubt that Iraq would be able to sustain the value of the dinar, and the value of the dinar dropped. End of story. 
       
      Something extremely predictable happens when a stock or a currency or anything suddenly starts losing value... it causes panic. Herd mentality kicks in, and it sweeps like a tidal wave. People selling to avoid loss are willing to take losses to avoid bigger losses, and the avalanche builds momentum. Sometimes a stock or commodity will be annihilated, or sometimes it will just sink to a level that nobody believed was possible just months before.
       
      This happened to the Dinar.
       
      The same thing happens on the opposite side, of course. When people see something rising in value, they predictably want to catch that wave and the momentum will build the other way. People see other people making profits and want to join in, and again the herd mentality can push a stock or a currency or anything else that is being traded to levels that it shouldn't actually attain.
       
      Eventually the markets will stabilize, as they always do. In Iraq's case, this is exactly why I lean towards a pegged RV rate opposed to a complete free float on the market. It will be easier for them to control a major change if they also control the fluctuation, and they stand to make enough profits on an RV that they will be better served by taking the profits on a fixed spread rather than trying to "catch it at the top". A pegged rate, at least initially, will allow them to control and maintain a higher rate.
       
      They are doing all this with their actions in their government, and the price of oil going up at a steady and fairly predictable rate gives them the ability to create a solid path to higher profitability.
       
      End result? 
       
      Everything we’re looking for!
       
      Fingers crossed for some HCL news (SOON), and when it happens I'll be sending out that message.
       
      GOOO RRRRVVVVV!!!!!
       
       
       
      - Adam
       
       
       
       
       
    • By Adam Montana
      Good morning all!
       
      Just a quick note this morning, because I'm bubbling with excitement over the recent progress and feel compelled to get something up here.
       
      No, we don't have an HCL... and no, there has been no RV announcement.
       
      But, boy howdy, talk about tracking! 
       
      Iraq, the CBI, President Trump, and the Easter Bunny all have something in common: NONE of them are going to give us a specific "heads up" when Iraq is about to pull the trigger on a ReValuation of the Iraqi Dinar.
       
      Our job here is to be informed, engaged, and prepared. 
       
      OIL is over my forecasted/predicted/anticipated mark of $60. A member pointed out last week that the benchmark price I chose is WTI, which is not necessarily "Iraqi Oil", and to be fair it has been some time since I explained why I chose WTI as a reference point. Quite simply, WTI is a commonly used price that can be used to reasonably gauge activity across various markets. Since actual daily Iraqi production and sales are not readily available, it makes sense to track another index or marker that has a more reliable report available.
       
      As of this writing, oil (WTI) has surpassed $60 and is on a steady pace (slow and steady wins the race!) upwards. 
       
      This isn't the only thing that matters, of course. The ReValuation (RV) of the Iraqi Dinar isn't hinged on any one item by any means! It is a culmination of many moving parts, and OIL is only one of them...
       
      ... but OIL is a big piece, and it's performing exactly as we we want.
       

       
      I'll post a more in depth update later, but one other item is on the news - BTC.
       
      I wouldn't get super excited about it, but the gains on BTC this week are definitely worth looking at. More on that later as well.
       
      As always, GO RVVVVVVV!!!! The stars are aligning.
       

       
       
       
      More to come later.
       
      - Adam
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