Nuki

Never in my life have I actually hoped for the price of gas to rise. Thanks for the update Adam. I'm with you on this one. I still think they are comfortably at a price rate to RV, but it behooves them to wait for graph to start heading up. BTW, if you haven't seen it yet, watch The Big Short. Amazing movie, and a nice reminder of how people who are rich, stay rich at the misfortunes of others. Hopefully our investment will be due to the boon of the Iraqi people.

Great update, and a day early! Awesome. Thanks for all that you do sir.

True, and thanks for the reminder. Of course this is all conjecture. Everything about this game is conjecture, but you can apply logic and reason and come up with some decent theories. Perhaps I should have framed my post with the statement that this is on top of all the other factors involved. Personally I like thinking that finally they have a plan in place, which was put into effect based on more than just the secular issues going on in the region. If anything because it keeps hope alive that if a plan is in place, there is ultimately an end game. One in which we all come out on the better end of. Keep hope alive ya'll.

Thanks for evening me out whoever negged my last post. Didn't want those upvotes to go to my head. LOL

Posted this in another thread, but I think it's relevant here also: Adam, what say you?

Saw this one coming (not to gloat). Something occurred to me this morning I hadn't ever thought of. We make a lot jokes about Iraq and how slow they are, and backwards, and a host of other things that helps ease our frustration at their inability to get done what we're all so desperate to get done, but I have to wonder, perhaps we've misjudged their economists. I wonder if someone over there didn't see this coming and realize they couldn't RV with oil hitting an all time low. Now I know that's just pure speculation, but I have to almost wonder if they didn't plan it this way, then perhaps someone realized the oil bubble was going to eventually burst and come crashing down. I wrote a long essay in the VIP area somewhat based on this, and discounting inflation, we're still in a zone where they could easily RV to match the Kuwaiti dinar (you haven't seen it's value drop yet have you?) However, and I'm going to for once give them probably more credit than they deserve, they might be seeing this as the catalyst they need to push the HCL through knowing that oil shouldn't be their only "big" source of export income. Just like how Dubai realized they couldn't live off oil money forever and made moves to secure their global position by building up infrastructure in banking, tourism, and big business, someone in Iraq might have actually seen this coming and waited for whats happening now to convince skeptics that they should diversify. I dunno, just pondering things and trying to see how current events could be good for us in the long run. If we're truly only waiting on the HCL, this might be what convinces them to get a move on.

Hmm kinda "conspiracy theory-ish" but that's a good point.

Called it.

Hmm somewhere inside my mind wants to think that a 50 cent RV would make these new notes very viable. However, I could see this maybe a 10 cent RV. Think about it. This would make their lowest denom about 5 cents to the dollar. Now apply the argument used here in the States about how we should get rid of the penny. They would simply have no need for a lower value currency, unless of course it floated up to a greater exchange, which in turn, they could then release a 10 dinar or 5 dinar coin. Of course, this is probably an over simplification and the penny debate might not necessarily apply here. However we know they're pegged to the dollar, which likely means their market goods prices are as well. Which means there is probably little if any goods that are worth a penny (much like here in the States.)

Hmmm who was talking about OPEC recently, in another thread?

Does anyone remember OPEC? I can't help but think they'll step in to help curb the falling PPB. If I recall they've done it at least once before in my life time. (My memory fails, was it in the late 70s or mid 80s?) Hold on to the crude barrels and control export to maintain a certain price. The key was that every nation that was a member of OPEC had to be on the same page, and if I recall this caused a lot of tension with a great number of countries who relied on OPEC oil. While it might hurt Joe Consumer, it would certainly be good for us.

Hey LGD, I'm over here in KCMO, where about in Kansas are ya? Sorry if this seems out of the blue. LOL the problem with being a long time lurker is that you feel ya know the big guys, but they usually don't know you.

Hmmm several ways to look at things here, and I've seen some theories that spun the devaluation as a positive thing. To wit, making the dinar a straight 2000 to 1 would make an RV simpler to understand, say by taking off the zeroes and simply stating dinar are now 2 to 1 dollar ($.5 RV). The math would be simpler for everyone on a macro level, and wouldn't take much to double that to a one to one months/years down the line. However I personally feel if they had done that, we'd have been waiting long enough for the market to stabilize to the 2000:1 adjustment before they made that move (everyone would have to change their prices and adjust accordingly). Meanwhile, all doomsdayer, lopsters, and naysayers would have been chiding everyone into selling their dinars, again, good for those of us who stay patient and wait things out. Of course, thats best case if they did devalue, and certainly my "wishful thinking" theory. Then again, the fact that gov't entities and articles are coming out of the wood works proclaiming this is all just rumor and speculation has to give one pause to realize that the thought of a change really is on the table and at the forefront of their minds. It seems lots of people are concerned at some level about damage control. Damage control of what? Who knows, whatever big secret they have planned, but it does seem something is looming before us. My point being is that a devaluation certainly has some potential to be good for us, then again so does not devaluing. Either way, the fact that their is so much talk about it from the right people means the light at the tunnel is getting brighter, whether is a train coming at us to flatten us or it actually just the end of the tunnel remains to be seen. Either way I'm ready to find out one way or the other.

Basically, it seems they are taking their cut of the "spread".

Hmm it seems things are about to come to head. We might be nearing some type of drastic change on this ride. Then again, I've said it before and I'll say it again, things might just appear to get worse before they get better so don't let rhetoric or op-ed articles shake your faith. If anything, Iraqi journalists are the masters of double talk and smoke screens.

Forgive me if this comes off as crass or condescending, but this is not some penny stock being traded on Scottrade. While I have related this to futures trading in the past, this really isn't, nor is this the stock market, which is how you seem to be approaching it. I've often criticized Iraq in the past as being a bunch of witless blundering idiots, however what is going on here is beyond even their inability to get along. This is going to play out on a global scale, that will effect millions of people or more, and suffice to say at the very least every single person in their country. No, to trivialize this as a "sell now before the stock crashes" sentiment is dangerously ill conceived. Your attempt to convince anyone/everyone to sell is almost to the point of being maliciously foolhardy. Any person you convince to get out now, you will have robbed them of their windfall should things go the other way. I personally couldn't live with that on my conscience. I can however live with the fact that I convinced several people who had the liquid assets to purchase dinars. It seems you have the best of intentions, but you're jumping the gun by looking at this whole thing in much too simple a light.

Whoa whoa whoa, slow down everyone. Don't start throwing your hands up and burning your dinars. Futures trading (which is pretty much what we're all doing here) is a gamble like anything. You should never ever gamble with money that you can't afford to lose. Right now, Iraq is seeing all types of movement on big issues the country has long ignored. The currency thing is one of them. It is likely things can appear to get worse before they get better. Throw those dinars in a safe and take some time away from this site. Come back with a fresh perspective and sense of hope. It's doubtful you'll miss anything big. It is very likely that in the end, you won't lose much more than you spent on this.

Evened you out Sandfly. This does sound like a $.10 rv, with a year long float so that they can "adjust" it in the next years budget to match the dinar's increase in value.

Saw a friend post this on Facebook in regards to the Trump thing. http://www.history.com/topics/chinese-exclusion-act And here is more: http://www.hannity.com/articles/immigration-487258/here-are-four-previous-times-the-14188916/ It seems that in periods of wartime, other Presidents have used Executive power to prevent certain groups from entering the country. We may decide that we are not at war with Islam, but the fact is, is that it is at war with us. Jihad is required for any muslim when it proclaimed. Here is some perspective for you guys: Aynaz Anni Cyrus, watch her newest video. https://www.facebook.com/aynazcyrus/videos/10205179045864240/?theater Like I said, I have many muslim friends both here and abroad. They are bad muslim friends (bad because they choose not to heed the call to Jihad). You guys should understand exactly what it is we're up against here. Beyond what the press and media tell everyone. I'm not pushing for Trump in the slightest, he's just one of few that seems to understand what we're up against and that our old methods aren't working in the short term.

Honestly, even if we got dirty I don't think it would come to that. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they went that route, they wrangled up the family members and made them "disappear" (in a holding facility or something of the like). Eh, I've been up studying calculus all night, my brains fried so I'm probably not terribly coherent. What this thread really needs is a long write up on the history of that region to give more people here some perspective. I'm just too tired to write it. Likewise, I can only offer a perspective from the Afghani side of things, because that was where I spent all my time (all 8 years in country). Wow, I'm so tired, not sure I'm even making sense. Wish me luck on my calculus test tomorrow, I hope all this studying is worth it. BTW, what's with all name calling and ad hominem? It doesn't do a thing for you arguments and rebuttals.

I wish Obama hasn't made it a point to ruin Patreaus's reputation. I met the guy while I was on ISAF. He was smart, not just in the military aspect, and was a stand up guy despite his debacle with that journalist. The rumor on base was that he was considering a campaign. He would have absolutely been the President this country needs. He had honor, which is why he didn't even bother trying to save his reputation when the smear campaign got released. Many of us believed Obama did it to keep him from running, because he knew he was a serious threat to reelection. He was a soldiers General, the rare officer that doesn't hide behind their brass.The crazy thing is, despite his affair, he could probably still make a run at it, but his code won't allow it I don't think.

Please read my last post. Have you been there? Have you interacted with the Taliban, or Al-Qaeda? I have, and I can tell you with first hand knowledge that while most of your statement is true, you are quite wrong in your second sentence. They hate our lifestyle, our freedoms, our hedonistic vision of life. Our ability to think freely outside of religious influence. No sir, you are wrong. They hate us for what we stand for, because we stand outside of their interpretation of the Quran.

Perhaps some correlation to the current Dinar thing going on. It's dropping in value, just before a massive spike. When I read the news last night about the Dinar lowering in value, I immediately thought now might be the time to get another mill or two. I only wish I had stocked up when it was 420 a mill and every vendor on base in Salerno was selling them as such.

I was in Salerno in '04. Back then it was literally the tip of the spear. The wild west as many called it. I was a contractor for KBR like so many civilians. Long before I got a clearance and started doing the high dollar stuff. We would do safety briefings about the Taliban, and how to interact with the locals and such. I made many friends of my locals. People I miss all the time, that I will likely never see again. They told me how the jihadists would threaten their children, their wives, fathers, uncles, etc. It was later, after I got my clearance and starting doing things a little more proactive in the war on terror, that myself, and several other DoD guys, were told that eventually we would be targets. That someday they will literally come to our door step and kill our families for the work we've done helping the US military. Even Bin Laden publicly stated that all contractors are to be considered enemies. I'm not here to sell anyone on Trump. To me he is the result of a polarization, and to a certain effect the extreme counter-swing to in the pendulum of bureaucracy that has swung too far to one side. However he is one of the few that seems to understand, that these people can not be fought on the politically correct, Geneva Convention-safe, terms in which we do business lately. These people have no qualms with killing your sons or daughters, they do not operate on any rules of engagement. It's all fair game. No, they aren't the boogie men. But they are an evil that believe they are doing gods work. Until you've looked evil right in the eye, you might not be able to fully grasp what you're up against. It's time to re-think how we approach this. Hearts and minds will take 50 years to work, but it will work. However that won't stop the countless lives lost until we win them over to our side. Maybe its time we give them a reason to fear us. Because lets face it, if they want to make it dirty, then we could do dirty a whole lot better than they can. Trump might be on to something here.

That is exactly what I thought when I read it. He was going to start utilizing the notes but the decision to wait was handed down. Maybe because the value is about to skyrocket and this is a last effort to keep new larger denom notes off the streets. Keep it in house for inter-bank transfer (as has been theorized here). No this article is a good thing. Something is shaking, and of course the articles are going to spin it any which way they want, but it's clear change is a comin.