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In your opinion, why do you think so?  Although I'm still hopeful, I've read several times on this site...it will RV or we'll have the HCL "soon" (our "favorite" word...lol).  Just curious as to why you think now is any different than the many times before we thought the RV (or HCL) would happen.  You usually have very insightful things to say, so I'm curious why "now" is different than before.  Thanks so much for your reply!

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I might weigh in on this with it seems there is more coming out from the government about supposed intentions etc. that doesn’t mean it will happen today tomorrow or any time “soon”. When you stop to think about it each day is actually closer. My wife asked me about it and my comment was I would be surprised if nothing happened in the next year. Hopefully sooner but I don’t have a clue. 

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25 minutes ago, newbie_investor said:

In your opinion, why do you think so?  Although I'm still hopeful, I've read several times on this site...it will RV or we'll have the HCL "soon" (our "favorite" word...lol).  Just curious as to why you think now is any different than the many times before we thought the RV (or HCL) would happen.  You usually have very insightful things to say, so I'm curious why "now" is different than before.  Thanks so much for your reply!

Fair question......as I have stated....I don't know all the nuances of the IQD....many here are more knowledgeable....

 

People in the circles I run with....the study of history....reading the world news....(real news...not MSM crap)...are pieces of the puzzle for me....

 

World debt is unsustainable.....there is a huge power struggle ....east vs west.........AIIB or BIS banking....who will prevail?...and those changes at the IMF......and World Bank....think Laguarde.......

 

The IQD is but a pawn in all of this.....even if all the worthless Gurus want you to believe it will become the worlds reserve currency.....it won't.....they can't even get out of thier own way...

 

But to get back on track.....in the last big debacle 08-ish.....the entire world came to its knee's.....a breath away from world wide bankruptcy....Government officials were calling loved ones suggesting they withdraw funds before a bank run and closures.....the crisis was averted by printing $$Trillions to throw at the problem......that won't work again.....and things are far worse today......

 

So in 1971 when the FIAT system was introduced....no thunder and lightning.....just a 10 minute speech on a Sunday night stating the change and a 5% reduction in the value of the USD......all for the good of the country because countries such as France were demanding  payment in gold because our curreny was supposedly backed by gold....

 

This time will be no different....some sort of announcement on a change that will level the playing field with currency manipulators like China......all these other smaller countries will be part of the mix......

 

In 71 there wasn't a huge immediate impact...but the petrodollar was born from all of that.....strengthening the US hold on Reserve Currency status......so again....I don't expect the thunder and lightning event....but those watching will understand when it happens......I'll add more later here......kind if rambled on this one....      CL

 

 

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Thanks for the post CL, 

 

I’m leaning towards the beginning of 2020 for an increase of the dinar exchange rate. It will give them time to: 

- complete GOI ( minister of education)

- HCL and Art 140 and other important laws 

- fight corruption 

- restructure of the banking system.

 

Also many important things are scheduled to start at the beginning of 2020 like the new salary pay scale.

 

Go RV sooner than later

Go $1:1

 

 

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1 hour ago, Shabibilicious said:

What's your definition of "close" CL?.....I hope it's a lot shorter than "soon".  ;)

 

GO RV, then BV

Shabs...!

 

Good to converse outside of that wretched political section......I look forward to some BV time and conversation with you by September....

 

My opinion based on geopolitical and socioeconomic reasoning is we could see this as early as this weekend....and nope.....not a prediction....just seems as things are pretty well in line....

 

Enjoy your weekend!      CL

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Shabibilicious said:

What's your definition of "close" CL?.....I hope it's a lot shorter than "soon".  ;)

 

GO RV, then BV

Shabs...!

 

Good to converse outside of that wretched political section......I look forward to some BV time and conversation with you by September....

 

My opinion based on geopolitical and socioeconomic reasoning is we could see this as early as this weekend....and nope.....not a prediction....just seems as things are pretty well in line....

 

Enjoy your weekend!      CL

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Laid Back said:

Thanks for the post CL, 

 

I’m leaning towards the beginning of 2020 for an increase of the dinar exchange rate. It will give them time to: 

- complete GOI ( minister of education)

- HCL and Art 140 and other important laws 

- fight corruption 

- restructure of the banking system.

 

Also many important things are scheduled to start at the beginning of 2020 like the new salary pay scale.

 

Go RV sooner than later

Go $1:1

 

 

Could be as right as anyone....I just don't think Iraq has any control in this.....nor the abilities to work the process....

JMO....     CL

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32 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:

Could be as right as anyone....I just don't think Iraq has any control in this.....nor the abilities to work the process....

JMO....     CL

I agree with you CL, 

 

Go RV sooner than later 

Go $1:1

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For an example of what helps me form this opinion read this news letter....Egon is Swiss....and yes he sells metals......and would benefit from a world wide financial collapse.....read this with the idea that those in control will not let this happen.....they have too much to lose.....

 

(Same thought process will apply that was used in n 71.....switch things up before it fails)

 

I believe any change in value of the IQD will  be a part of something bigger......and that "bigger"......is close.....   CL

 

========

 

CONFIDENCE AND EUPHORIA WILL TURN TO FEAR AND DESPAIR

July 18, 2019
 
by Egon von Greyerz

thumb.jpgInvestors today have Hobson’s Choice. But they still don’t understand the options open to them.

Thomas Hobson had a livery stable of 40 horses in Cambridge in the 16th-17th centuries. But customers only had a choice of one horse. They could either take the one nearest the door or none at all.

So Hobson’s choice in simple terms means “take it or leave it”.

Below is the choice of asset classes investors have today and where 99% or more of global liquidity is invested in. The problem is that these assets are massive bubbles as a result of unlimited credit creation and money printing in the last few decades.

If we assume that the horses in the stable represent the asset classes below, they will all be a very poor choice regardless of which one is nearest the door:

  • Stocks will decline by 75-95% in real terms as the stock market bubble implodes
  • Bonds will lose 90-100% of their value as sovereign and private borrowers default
  • Property values will implode by 75-95% with rates at 15%+ and no credit available
  • Private Equityinvestments will lose 70-100% slaughtered by high leverage and rates
  • Cash will either be bailed in or lost in bankruptcy of banks or totally debased by governments

EVERYONE WILL TAKE IT AND NO ONE LEAVE IT

The problem is that no investor will “leave it” as they all have been conditioned to putting all their funds into one or several of the asset classes above and that is their Hobson’s choice. Very few will be overly concerned about the risks before them today and nobody can believe that all the horses in their investment stable can be lame or unfit. Thus, everyone will “take it” as they will continue to believe that these assets will go up for ever.

CASH WILL BE WORTH-LESS

Some investors might reallocate part of their assets to cash as market volatility increases.. But they can’t earn any return on their cash with rates anywhere from negative to just positive. And then they have the bail-in risk as banks incur major losses. Then, as all currencies finish their run to ZERO, the complete debasement of money will have completed its course.Remember that they have already all lost 97-99% since the Fed was founded in 1913.

Decades of investment gains, which are virtually all due to credit expansion, have led investors to believe that markets always go up in the long run and also that they have magical money making skills. Little do they understand that virtually no skills have been required to make money in markets in the last 70 odd years. See my article about Alfred, a stock market winner with zero talent.

STOCK MARKETS IN FINAL INNINGS

What few realise is that we are now in the very final innings of an investment game that will end badly. Major stock markets in many countries, including the Dow and S&P, are now finishing their bull market moves, both short term and long term. The fundamental position has been indicating high risk for a while and the technical picture is now confirming that we are ending a major secular bull market that will turn into a catastrophic secular bear market which will be devastating for the world.

Markets are likely to top very soon. Whether the bear market will start with a crash or just an initial slow move down, we will soon see. In either case, the autumn of 2019 will be one that investors will not forget. Because that will be the time when sentiment will change course dramatically. Confidence and euphoria will turn to fear and despair. Once the market realises that this time central banks have no weapons left in their armoury and that money printing or lower rates have no effect, there will be real panic. When the last crisis started in 2006, US rates were above 5% and German rates over 3%. Today US rates are around 2% and German negative. In addition 23% or $13 trillion of Sovereign debt now has negative rates. So virtually no margin to make meaningful interest rate cuts.

UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING

Yes, there will be massive money printing because that is the only thing Central Banks know. But we must remember that global debt has doubled since the last crisis. In 2006 global debt was $125 trillion and today it is $250 trillion. None of that money has benefitted the general economy but instead only inflated asset markets. When the next money printing round starts, no one will benefit. The world will realise that you cannot create wealth by printing worthless pieces of paper or adding zeros on a computer. And finally, this time central bankers will learn that they won’t be able to solve a debt problem by adding more debt.

We will most probably see central banks lowering short term rates, as they do every time they panic. But after a brief period of low rates, the long end of the market will most probably go the other way and long term rates will go up. As the panic in the bond markets, both sovereign and corporate, leads to major liquidations of bonds, long term rates will rise. The 10 year US treasury rate, which has gone from 3.25% to under 2% in the last 8 months, has most probably bottomed and will in the next 2-4 years be back in the teens where it was in the early 1980s.

treas.jpg

LEAVE HOBSON AND TAKE GOLD

So let’s go back to Hobson. Investors will go for Hobson’s lame horses, which in their case will be bubble assets like stocks or bonds and maybe some increase in liquidity. Virtually nobody will think of alternatives. Very few are aware that there is an asset class that has outperformed stock markets since the beginning of this century. As the chart below shows, Global Equities have lost 70% against gold since 2000 and are likely to lose another 95% in the next 3-6 years.

gl_eq.jpg

So instead of protecting against the total wealth destruction that the world will experience in the next few years, as all the bubble assets implode, investors will take Hobson’s choice of lame assets that will be virtually worthless by 2025.

Why not follow the Silk Road countries that continue to buy the annual mine production of gold. As the chart below shows, since the financial crisis started in 2006 these countries have bought almost 30,000 tonnes.

silk_road.jpg

GOLD – NEXT TARGET $1,600 – $1,750

Since gold broke the Maginot Line at $1,350 just under a month ago, it has consolidated around the $1,400 level. The next target is $1,600 to $1,750. Once gold breaks out of the current trading range, we will see a fast move up to that level.

The $1,350 level is now extremely strong support and as I have already stated, the price is unlikely to go below that level more than momentarily. The risk is now to be left behind in the coming biggest gold bull market in history. All the surprises will be on the upside.

Gold will reach multiples of the current price, but we are not invested in gold for the coming major price move but for protection against the massive risks in all financial markets and in the financial system. Gold is insurance and gold is wealth preservation.

BE READY FOR SILVER EXPLOSION

Finally, a word about silver. Silver is much more volatile than gold and therefore not the same degree of wealth preservation. Still, we are likely to see a most spectacular move in silver starting shortly.

Silver is incredibly undervalued and depressed and once it breaks out, is likely to explode.

Below is a chart of silver adjusted for real inflation. As the chart indicates, the silver peak at $50 in 1980 would today be $840 adjusted for real inflation. That shows what the real potential for silver is.

silver_adj.jpg

Holders of physical gold and some silver will not only protect their assets but are also likely to see the price of both metals reach levels that are difficult to fathom today.

 

 
 
Edited by Markinsa
Removed Links | See Forum Rules
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GM, CL.  Love this thread.  If I may, let me attempt to pick your brain.  You have mentioned that you believe the RV will be a non-taxable event.  All of us certainly hope that is true (and Trump gives us the best chance for that).  You are now giving an opinion on the timing - more encouraging thoughts.  My question is - do you hold to the opinion of Adam that the initial rate will be low (around .10), or do you believe the developing stability will bring a healthier rate?

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@coorslite21 I like Egon better than the likes of Bix weir/ Bo Polny / etc. I would put him in the category of David Morgan or Peter Schiff. Smart guys. They do sell metals and as a result I prepared. However the only thing I would add is Crypto’s. The powers that be are not going back to the stone ages and losing their grip on humanity. Silver and gold do not provide the solution they desire. I believe they will increase but maybe to half those projections because I believe it will be easier for the sheep to be herded into digital CBDC’s (Central Bank Digital Currencies) 

 

They will trade their fiat for digital fiat! Same Boss as the old Boss. Silver is in my opinion severely under valued to gold and easier to divide than gold if poop hits the fan, but I believe strategic digital assets will have a better run than the metals because the elite don’t want to lose control of the system. 

 

Ive mentioned it here before but if I had invested what I invested in silver 11-12 years ago in BTC ETH and XRP, I would be on a private 🌴 sipping mojitos with little umbrellas in them. 

 

Anyway, in this case I hope the Dinar is part of the economic reset/bailout of the powers that be and I’m sure Silver and Gold will do well, I just don’t believe they are going to let them run wild like crypto’s! 

 

Always love your posts posts and they are thought provoking.  Keep bringing it 💪

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32 minutes ago, Shedagal said:

GM, CL.  Love this thread.  If I may, let me attempt to pick your brain.  You have mentioned that you believe the RV will be a non-taxable event.  All of us certainly hope that is true (and Trump gives us the best chance for that).  You are now giving an opinion on the timing - more encouraging thoughts.  My question is - do you hold to the opinion of Adam that the initial rate will be low (around .10), or do you believe the developing stability will bring a healthier rate?

 

Thanks for the response....I have always thought 1-1 sounded about right....it's basically what they have been using and would be an easy adjustment.......of late I am leaning more towards Montana's 10 cents.....with a float......they might be able to draw in a great deal of notes at that price.....as it would still represent a large profit.....

 

If it comes out at a buck, or higher, then I would guess a managed float...perhaps limited to 2% quarterly.......

 

We might all be surprised with a regional transitional currency to unify the region in the value of thier currencies.....same type concept as OPEC........

 

think about the diverse currency values in the region.....

 

And take the 2 best established countries in the region.....1 Saudi Riyal is worth 27 cents.....and a Kuwaiti Dinar is around $3.50......

 

So....in summary.....probably starts at 10 cents......with a float that will allow it to rise pretty quickly.......but like I have said.....I'm no expert on the IQD or Iraq...     CL

 

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Don’t know if you’ve ever heard of the Trifflin’s Dilema but it deals with the US Dollar being both a national currency and the World reserve currency. Donald Trump/ Steve Mnuchin/ Christine Legarde have all talked about Leveleing the Plaing field when it comes to world trade and currencies........ I believe they already have the solution and I believe they will be rolling it out this year and 2020 at the latest. personally after all my research I feel it is XRP to be a bridge asset to unlock all the nostro/vostro accounts that banks have ties up capital in. There’s at least 10T in these accounts and some believe 27T. 

 

Just some thoughts before work this morning.  Thanks again CL21

 

Like you say... it’s all connected! 

9D708D8F-8CFC-4B7D-BDF0-45E6CF6233D3.jpeg

Edited by NEPatriotsFan1
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Just one more thing! I’m hoping that the Dinar will be used to help rectify the US Dollar! George Bush said it would not cost US taxpayers anything for the Iraq war. Well maybe if we level the playing field and we raise value of Dinar it can pay down some of our US Debt and in practicality pay off the war..... this post on twitter is from the Head of Ripple as it relates to Crypto and the US Dollar. There are plans within plans..... already established at the G20 when they kicked the press out of the room this year in Osaka Japan. I hope this ride is coming to an end and that a new chapter is starting for all of us

9032751D-E440-47A4-83CD-B22D81B3805C.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, NEPatriotsFan1 said:

Just one more thing! I’m hoping that the Dinar will be used to help rectify the US Dollar! George Bush said it would not cost US taxpayers anything for the Iraq war. Well maybe if we level the playing field and we raise value of Dinar it can pay down some of our US Debt and in practicality pay off the war..... this post on twitter is from the Head of Ripple as it relates to Crypto and the US Dollar. There are plans within plans..... already established at the G20 when they kicked the press out of the room this year in Osaka Japan. I hope this ride is coming to an end and that a new chapter is starting for all of us

9032751D-E440-47A4-83CD-B22D81B3805C.jpeg

NEP....you and I have conversed a great deal in the crypto section on XRP......and for those who don't follow that thread we are both in lock-step on the future of Ripple/XRP....

 

2017 saw a 16,809% return on investment for XRP.......

 

This is not your conventional blockchain/cryptocurrency.......but serves a purpose and in my mind is the furthest along in the mass adoption process....

 

You all should take a hard look at the blockchain.....great deal of opportunity there.....and yep

 

It's all connected!     CL

 

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1 hour ago, coorslite21 said:

 

.....of late I am leaning more towards Montana's 10 cents.....with a float......they might be able to draw in a great deal of notes at that price.....as it would still represent a large profit.....

 

So....in summary.....probably starts at 10 cents......with a float that will allow it to rise pretty quickly.......but like I have said.....I'm no expert on the IQD or Iraq...     CL

 

 

If it comes out at 10 cents, I have the feeling Iraq will give a certain time limit for everyone to exchange their 000 notes (or they will be null and void) before they allow the Dinar to float.  Is this a possibility?

 

Thanks in advance, CL.

 

Edited by Floridian
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On 7/18/2019 at 12:35 PM, coorslite21 said:

.my opinion is that our ride is close to being over

Iraq needs to implement E-Governance an some part of E-Banking which have been implemented (Second Phase).

 

3 hours ago, coorslite21 said:

Ripple/XRP....

I agree, from what I've been told this is what the banks will use for international trading. I don't spend the time as other do researching it, but appreciate your comments and supports making the right choice XRP aka (ripple) is the one to keep an eye on... 

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3 hours ago, Floridian said:

 

If it comes out at 10 cents, I have the feeling Iraq will give a certain time limit for everyone to exchange their 000 notes (or they will be null and void) before they allow the Dinar to float.  Is this a possibility?

 

Thanks in advance, CL.

 

Certainly a possibility...however this unfolds the well being of Iraq and her citizens needs to be a major consideration...

 

With the potential wide scope to these changes I believe many financial issues world wide will be addressed....

JMO.....    CL

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27 minutes ago, yota691 said:

Iraq needs to implement E-Governance an some part of E-Banking which have been implemented (Second Phase).

 

I agree, from what I've been told this is what the banks will use for international trading. I don't spend the time as other do researching it, but appreciate your comments and supports making the right choice XRP aka (ripple) is the one to keep an eye on... 

Yota...

 

Always great to see you post on any thread I'm involved on/in/with...😎.......Thx

CL

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Well

mmmmmm

 

i always thought I was smart

 

but reading all your posts shows me how simple and not smart like my mom told me I am

 

Thanks to all of you

 

really smart talk here

 

going to the bar now to work on my USA prez take over

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