Popular Post Doc31 Posted March 13, 2011 Popular Post Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Currency Auctions Announcement No. (1853) The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 13-MAR-2011. The results were as follows: DetailsNotesNumber of banks15 Auction price selling dinar / US$1170 Auction price buying dinar / US$----- Amount sold at auction price (US$)156,042,000 Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)----- Total offers for buying (US$)156,042,000 Total offers for selling (US$)----- Exchange rates Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets Oil, Gold, Silver ... Friday's numbers Zeroes ... near as the cash portion amounted to only 330K on moderate volume and 15 of 22 banks participating. I'm going to do something a little different. Yesterday I clicked on a discussion on rates. Within a very short time the usual suspects had turned it into a pennies per dinar bash and a lopster-fest. I had clicked on it to see if anyone had anything new to consider with decent rationale … I quickly gave that up. My brain kept working on it though … soon I realized that while it is totally unscientific and corroboration is impossible … there’s a way that we might catch just a glimpse of the truth. When there are too many numbers I put things in a chart to be able to put my finger on the most likely resultant. When I thought about it … there were two numbers that we hadn't really explored (at least I've never seen it … perhaps some of you have). That is the supposed amount that individual IQD investors possess combined with that which our government is purported to have … all set against “W's” statement! There was an economist who guesstimated the number of individual IQD holders to be about ¾ of a million and that their average holdings were 2M each. Hardly news right?! Then our government is reported to have 3T, 3.5T, 5T, or 5.5T (depends on who you ask … Rudy has used 3 of the 4 at different times) … not news and definitely unsubstantiated … and reportedly tied in with “W's” reported claim that “this war will pay for itself”. R U w/me so far? Okay … I've seen no one take the numbers and see what rate it would take to pay for the war in Iraq … a reported, staggering $3T! Yes, I'm aware we have a moving target, unreliable numbers, an unclear tax rate, etc … but hey … no guts no glory. Now before anyone starts on me about fractional banking, total Iraqi money supply, M0, M1, M2, M3, or M4 … I got it … and it's NOT where I'm going … something just stuck in my head when this guy said something like he “didn't believe in fils regarding the Iraqi monetary system.” (fils are coinage … fractions of a dinar … how we make change for lower priced items). His point was that the IQD will come in so low that this won't happen. Well Brigadier General Hugh Tant who was in charge of operations and the hiring of the DeLaRue Corporation to print the IQD disagrees. Incidentally, we've all been rocked by the number of security features on the IQD, it's intricacies, and the fact that you would have to be a master paper-maker as well as a master counterfeiter to duplicate it. Listen to this … Iraq paid DeLaRue $.06 per note to print them up for them. I gotta' tell ya' … pros just make it look easy! … don't they? $.06! OK … back to my little chart and remember the disclaimer two paragraphs previous. I asked two questions: if RI/RV were to be low ($.10 - $.30) how would that benefit the US Treasury from personal taxes at same level of revaluation how many IQD does the UST need to cover the war expenses per “W's” statement After constructing the chart you'll see that I had to expand it from $.10 - $.30 (because that DOES NOT WORK … all in yellow) and I chose to use the most commonly believed rates. I used 34% for tax (the turquoise) … it's just a number if you don't like it set up your own spread sheet! … I used it because it renders a higher value if long term capital gains will actually be applied (very, very doubtful … and don't lecture me on what your CPA or tax attorney told you … no one agrees) … but it approximates the highest regular income tax rate and short term capital gains rate … so see what you think! Oh, read the notes below the chart … if the column header is bold it is in Trillions … Yep, $.10 -$.30 doesn't begin to cover the $3T debt … and while I don't consider $.86 a viable number (because it is a mathematical aberration $.000865 … and take off three zeroes … please! Yes, it could come in at $.86 but NOT from that nonsense) if you add the personal tax and the lowest supposed IQD that the UST possesses do you see a number that would begin to cover “W's” statement? All of that is in green. I just remembered that the apprentice president promised to pay down the national debt by 50% by 2013 … that would put it in the green area with a higher rate and higher IQD holdings … as well as the next higher rate but with a smaller amount of IQD (shown in red). Now if this didn't trip your trigger and you still adhere to the $.10-$.30 RI/RV … consider this … assuming the report that DeLaRue printed 27T IQD is true … you could buy the entire country for a mere $2.7T to $8.1T with what are reported to be the worlds second largest (only if you exclude the US with the largest oil reserves in the world … who consistently points a finger at Saudi Arabia as #1) oil reserves. Who currently pumps more than 2M bpd times $100/bl (currently) or $200M/day and climbing to an estimated $1.4B/day. Who wouldn't buy it up is the real question? Looking at the chart you can see that unless ALL countries holding IQD trade/have traded them for oil vouchers … everything … regardless of color … is absolutely impossible (without fractional participation/involvement)! And they do claim to have (at least) 75% back apparently via this avenue. Understand that this is a mathematical exercise not a treatise nor an attempt to arrive at an exact number … but to see if we couldn't add some credence to or for a particular range of rates. You tell me … I think that it speaks for itself. I know that I will have my detractors who will disagree for various reasons. Again read the disclaimer above. Personally, I believe … without being Dr. Sinan al-Shabibi's favorite son … that naming a rate is similar to herding cats or nailing jello to a tree … but that's just me! Headed to church. Peace Doc31 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcmaz Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Doc31, Thanks for the post. I always look forward to reading your thoughts and today's was especially interesting to me. You put a lot of time and effort in and I wanted to say how much I appreciate that!! Blessings to you and yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark_mich266 Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thanks for the post, Doc! Interesting, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thank you so much for the chart! I, for one, appreciate the hard work you put into you daily posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogue Knight Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Doc - Once again you provide an educated oasis for the parched investor. Thanks for going above and beyond! Maybe I can buy you a whole pot of coffee someday! God Bless! - RK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain man Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thanks for the numbers and thoughts. Have a great day at church today. I will be on my way in a hour. God is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveH Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thanks Doc, great read as always. The rates in green fall in line with what I believe will be the initial rate we will see, not outrageously low or high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lechesuerte Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Nicely done Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim5400 Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 wow Doc great piece today......so wheren is the consensus on the rate now???? over a buck or under 3 bucks..........anyone??/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tlwkc Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 (edited) I give you a +1 just for this line.... 'Personally, I believe … without being Dr. Sinan al-Shabibi's favorite son … that naming a rate is similar to herding cats or nailing jello to a tree … but that's just me!' Fantastic....starting the day with a good laugh! Thanks Doc31 Edited March 13, 2011 by tlwkc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sblevine Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Doc31 What a great title "apprentice president" Thanks for what you do. Blessings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Doc, great job. I was thinking along some of these same lines. The Feds will do what ever is in there best interest. I have seen many a post about Iraq not wanting to RV high because it helps us money hungry Americans, they too could careless about us little investors. Both governemnts are going to do what is in their best interest, regardless of what seems logical. I feel that it will have to be some what resonable ($3.00 range), so the funds that were paid for GOI contracts, Iraq paybacks for debt are basiclly not worthless and for the GOI and the US to save face on the world market, after a decade of US support. I also think that they will peg it to a basket versus the USD. The US gets a big pay day on the RV. Clears the books on the debt and adds cash to the UST. We can only hope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Common sense, you have to love it. Thanks for the stimulation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magicchris Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Doc, I have never replied to one of your posts. I have givin you a +1 many many times, but have never put type to screen. I wanted to say, thanks for taking time every morning to come here and explain what may of of newer investors are trying to figure out, and how they all intertwine with one another. There are a few regular posters here and they are very much appreciated as well with all that they share and contribute, but you my friend are a diamond in the rough! A great big THANK YOU from NY! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreginTexas Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 As always a great read, Thanks Doc, But I need a link on Dr. Sinan al-Shabibi's son nailing jello to a tree. It just does not make sence. See how how you start the most outrages rumors. Have a great day and may God bless you and yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vast Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thanks Doc! It is nice to see a little sanity amid all of the chaos. Ever consider a career change, say Cat Wrangling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladowzanow Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Love the out of the box thinking. Always appreciate your posts... a lot of time and thought. Thank you sir. Enjoy your Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quadraph0nic Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 (edited) Interesting points doc. I never thought of those ideas like that but I certainly will consider them along with My LOPness Monster, Irational Fractional Banker, Slow Mo Appreciator, and the FIAT tango. I like the last one, its like the get out of jail free card! I think the most important thing with this investment is not to get "locked in" to one outcome. I mean this is speculation so its better to be grounded by considering as many possibilities (within the bounds of what we know err what we think we know ). And Doc, I think your on point with this. Often I thought of what Obama promised in cutting the deficit. I thought about George W in his promise that the war would pay for itself and that history would vindicate him. Now as far as I'm concerned, both of these men are on the line with these grand claims. So will Iraq make liars out of them or what? I believe we will see this year! So what would Iraq need to do for us to pay for the war? Thank you Doc for bringing that up! I just never thought of that. The big thing I'm waiting for which would end some of this speculation is Parlaiment to vote on or pass legislation to support Shabibi's new monetary policy in regards to restructuring their currency. Last year I looked up other nations who made changes to the currency, usually the government passes laws to support the new monetary policy. Then again, maybe they have already passed the laws and just haven't announced it? :lol: I really believe something will change this year and I pray it will be an RV but remember to keep an open mind to all possibilities until it is finished. Thanks again Doc! Edited March 13, 2011 by quadraph0nic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Off-the-grid Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 (edited) Nice to see an analysis from this angle. It's scary that I was wondering about this exact subject yesterday - how many dinar are out there, how much does the US Gov. have, how much do investors hold, and how might that affect the rate? You have succeeded in blowing my mind! I just wish the numbers indicated a higher rate needed to satisfy the war debt. Of course, this info helps indicate what the minimum rate is likely to be. The natural resources and production capabilities, etc., could lead the IMF and WTO and UN to approve a higher rate if Iraq asks for one (I understand that Iraq has to fly it by these guys, not just declare any rate they want?). Feedback, y"all. Thanks for the effort. Peace and Prosperity Edited March 13, 2011 by Off-the-grid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAGARCIA62 Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 thanks. i would hope to see the $3 range as well. that was the number i hoped for when i purchased my first dinars about 18 months ago. but anything above$1 would be nice otherwise i may have to continue working. have a nice day all and go rv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yusofsabri Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Very nice post Doc. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gp49 Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Once again, Thanks Doc. You have written my thoughts in the most excellent and much more eloquent and wise manner. Please keep the informative and thoughtful posts coming. Blessed Be to you and yours. gp49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbrlgms Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 you are awesome doc31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROCKSCISSORSPAPER Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 Another great post Doc. Look forward to your take on things...a lot of food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
venetia Posted March 13, 2011 Report Share Posted March 13, 2011 This site is blessed to have someone like you who does all this work for the benefit of others on here.........the person who was critising this site yesterday should take note!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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