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CBI Currency Auction 3/13/2011


Doc31
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Nice post Doc Thanks for all the hard work.

I'VE Been waiting for you to say. ZEROS forever now that you finally do not much hoop la, did I miss something?

GO RV /. RI

Nice post Doc Thanks for all the hard work.

I'VE Been waiting for you to say. ZEROS forever now that you finally do not much hoop la, did I miss something?

GO RV /. RI

P.S.. venptia nice comment

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Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1853)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 13-MAR-2011.

The results were as follows:

DetailsNotesNumber of banks15

Auction price selling dinar / US$1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$-----

Amount sold at auction price (US$)156,042,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----

Total offers for buying (US$)156,042,000

Total offers for selling (US$)-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

op4pj4.jpg

Oil, Gold, Silver ... Friday's numbers

Zeroes ... near as the cash portion amounted to only 330K on moderate volume and 15 of 22 banks participating.

I'm going to do something a little different. Yesterday I clicked on a discussion on rates. Within a very short time the usual suspects had turned it into a pennies per dinar bash and a lopster-fest.

I had clicked on it to see if anyone had anything new to consider with decent rationale … I quickly gave that up.

My brain kept working on it though … soon I realized that while it is totally unscientific and corroboration is impossible … there’s a way that we might catch just a glimpse of the truth.

When there are too many numbers I put things in a chart to be able to put my finger on the most likely resultant.

When I thought about it … there were two numbers that we hadn't really explored (at least I've never seen it … perhaps some of you have). That is the supposed amount that individual IQD investors possess combined with that which our government is purported to have … all set against “W's” statement!

There was an economist who guesstimated the number of individual IQD holders to be about ¾ of a million and that their average holdings were 2M each. Hardly news right?! Then our government is reported to have 3T, 3.5T, 5T, or 5.5T (depends on who you ask … Rudy has used 3 of the 4 at different times) … not news and definitely unsubstantiated … and reportedly tied in with “W's” reported claim that “this war will pay for itself”. R U w/me so far?

Okay … I've seen no one take the numbers and see what rate it would take to pay for the war in Iraq … a reported, staggering $3T! Yes, I'm aware we have a moving target, unreliable numbers, an unclear tax rate, etc … but hey … no guts no glory.

Now before anyone starts on me about fractional banking, total Iraqi money supply, M0, M1, M2, M3, or M4 … I got it … and it's NOT where I'm going … something just stuck in my head when this guy said something like he “didn't believe in fils regarding the Iraqi monetary system.” (fils are coinage … fractions of a dinar … how we make change for lower priced items). His point was that the IQD will come in so low that this won't happen.

Well Brigadier General Hugh Tant who was in charge of operations and the hiring of the DeLaRue Corporation to print the IQD disagrees. Incidentally, we've all been rocked by the number of security features on the IQD, it's intricacies, and the fact that you would have to be a master paper-maker as well as a master counterfeiter to duplicate it. Listen to this … Iraq paid DeLaRue $.06 per note to print them up for them. I gotta' tell ya' … pros just make it look easy! … don't they? $.06!

OK … back to my little chart and remember the disclaimer two paragraphs previous.

I asked two questions:

  1. if RI/RV were to be low ($.10 - $.30) how would that benefit the US Treasury from personal taxes
  2. at same level of revaluation how many IQD does the UST need to cover the war expenses per “W's” statement

After constructing the chart you'll see that I had to expand it from $.10 - $.30 (because that DOES NOT WORK … all in yellow) and I chose to use the most commonly believed rates. I used 34% for tax (the turquoise) … it's just a number if you don't like it set up your own spread sheet! … I used it because it renders a higher value if long term capital gains will actually be applied (very, very doubtful … and don't lecture me on what your CPA or tax attorney told you … no one agrees) … but it approximates the highest regular income tax rate and short term capital gains rate … so see what you think! Oh, read the notes below the chart … if the column header is bold it is in Trillions …

2vijtbc.jpg

Yep, $.10 -$.30 doesn't begin to cover the $3T debt … and while I don't consider $.86 a viable number (because it is a mathematical aberration $.000865 … and take off three zeroes … please! Yes, it could come in at $.86 but NOT from that nonsense) if you add the personal tax and the lowest supposed IQD that the UST possesses do you see a number that would begin to cover “W's” statement? All of that is in green.

I just remembered that the apprentice president promised to pay down the national debt by 50% by 2013 … that would put it in the green area with a higher rate and higher IQD holdings … as well as the next higher rate but with a smaller amount of IQD (shown in red).

Now if this didn't trip your trigger and you still adhere to the $.10-$.30 RI/RV … consider this … assuming the report that DeLaRue printed 27T IQD is true … you could buy the entire country for a mere $2.7T to $8.1T with what are reported to be the worlds second largest (only if you exclude the US with the largest oil reserves in the world … who consistently points a finger at Saudi Arabia as #1) oil reserves. Who currently pumps more than 2M bpd times $100/bl (currently) or $200M/day and climbing to an estimated $1.4B/day. Who wouldn't buy it up is the real question?

Looking at the chart you can see that unless ALL countries holding IQD trade/have traded them for oil vouchers … everything … regardless of color … is absolutely impossible (without fractional participation/involvement)! And they do claim to have (at least) 75% back apparently via this avenue.

Understand that this is a mathematical exercise not a treatise nor an attempt to arrive at an exact number … but to see if we couldn't add some credence to or for a particular range of rates. You tell me … I think that it speaks for itself. I know that I will have my detractors who will disagree for various reasons. Again read the disclaimer above.

Personally, I believe … without being Dr. Sinan al-Shabibi's favorite son … that naming a rate is similar to herding cats or nailing jello to a tree … but that's just me!

Headed to church.

Peace

Doc31

Hey Doc +1 for another insightful post. IMO the majority of the money to pay the "debt" needs to come from supposed U.S. holdings. The reason I believe this is not everyone will cash in all their dinars at a 1:1 rate. I know I won't unless I am forced to. I would probably cash in a million and wait for the rate to go up.

I truly believe that Iraq has to many needed natural resources for the rate to not seek out a similar level as the other ME players.

What do you think?

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Sound reasoning for rates. As I have always said we will see when we see, but analysis from you gives us hope that this is a good investment.. Like most on this site I have gone up and down many times. I have changed my mind several times also as to what the rate might be. I am ready for it to pop. I bought mine in the very beginning of this thing and unlike you have never increased my investment. If it comes in at a decent rate I will have enough for my family and enough to do some good for others. Thanks for all of your post Doc and hope to see you at the bank.

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Great simulation, Doc. I hope your simulation and analogy proves true for the $1 to $3 range; moreover, the intricacies of the printed Iraqi dinar under Hugh Grant are very professionally constructed and printed. Anyway, thanks for the post. You're very much appreciated. Thanks so much.

B)

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I think all investors will be satisfied with anything in the green.

I am sure, once the RV occurs, anyone will be happy.

I'm more curious on the "When"

I know I'll be satisfied whatever it could turn to be, but the when part is what kills me :)

Forget rates, I want reasonable dates :P

But I enjoyed your post today, it is always nice to read something like this and feel re-assured we all made a good choice by getting into this investment.

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