lechesuerte

Looks like these notes are much more sophisticated than the 2003-2011 versions. I wonder if the CBI changed their paper quality as well. It is quite poor on the old notes. If anyone has one of these notes, could you please compare paper quality with previous versions of 10K and 25K notes and comment? Thanks.

Unfortunately I believe the same, but it is better to be informed and therefore prepared. Hopefully the rate will rise even if it needs to be over time.

Just trying to provide another translation, it can be tricky...as we all know.

Bing Translator: Top: Central Bank Management Agency is to weaken himBaghdad/Farah Assem Al TaeeIndependent MP Hassan Alawi said that CBI management proxy is a weakening of this institution cash and that its strength and durability will be the strength of the Iraqi currency and have a weight on fiscal balances. The top of the "integrity" and for this reason we note that the law gave the Central Bank officials similar immunity immunity given to members of the House of representatives while the Ministers have no Central Bank staff immunity so as not to be held hostage by emotions or side effects. The top issue internationally condemned and the weakened financial position and weaken confidence in the Central Bank without Iraqi oil and that States know that the Iraqi dinar is oil to the value of 10,000 Iraqi dinars a quarter of the value of the US dollar that the world understands that there are oil wells like it or not, there is a vector carrying Iraqi oil to the world. He top that covered the Central Bank and the Iraqi dinar is keeping wealth alfateh owned by the country, which kept him standing up and holding before the unrest, the Central Bank, the flow of oil is the Iraqi currency deterioration.

Always be careful especially when listening to any opinion about the IQD. Always only listen to your own heart and understand that every $$$ invested is a dollar that can be lost. Enjoy life and understand that there are many criminals involved. Best to all. Happy New Year!!!

Do not forget that oil will always be sold in dollars as long as the US is in charge. There already have been many wars due to this fact.

188,928,000 Thanks. Good luck to all.

Booker's is a nice choice!

I wonder what the two rivers really refers to? Could it be the two coins? the two different currencies that will co-exist?

Thanks for posting the chat tg and as always thanks to Adam for his time and efforts!

Nice...if it were only that easy.

Woody you better look out.....it is this kind of thinking that has caused some of the problems in Iraq...if the Shia and Sunnis each get a watermelon....what about the king makers, the Kurds! Now where is their watermelon going to come from?

Ah the dreams of the government officials...........funny how the public begins to know them as nightmares.

Because they keep mentioning nominal rate not nominal exchange rate. Hopefully just a translation problem but they also cannot come out and say, "hey buy dinar because we are going to raise its rate". We'll just hope!

Might not be posted yet. It happens at times. But I checked this morning as well.

Thanks sara.

Agreed, let's hope!

Thanks Adam! That would be big news! I appreciate your updates.

Lira Options Show Worst Emerging Currency Approaching Record Low on Trade QBy Selcuk Gokoluk, Benjamin Harvey and Michael Patterson - Jul 26, 2011 2:58 AM CT . inShare.1 More Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email ..Enlarge image A Bundle Of 10 Lira Notes And One Lira Coins Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg The strategists who predicted this month’s tumble in the lira say more declines are likely as Turkey’s failure to cut its record current-account deficit erodes investor confidence. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Societe Generale SA say the lira may drop as much as 4.8 percent to 1.80 per dollar, extending a 5.3 percent retreat in July, the biggest worldwide. Traders are paying the most in a year to protect against lira depreciation in the options market, with contracts suggesting a 69 percent chance that the currency will weaken to 1.80 by the end of 2012, from 1.7139 yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The lira hit an all-time low of 1.8243 in March 2009. Turkey’s central bank kept benchmark borrowing costs at a record low for a sixth straight month on July 21, counting on a weaker lira to narrow the current-account gap by boosting exports and making imports more expensive. The strategy has proven unsuccessful as the 12-month deficit widened to $68.2 billion in May. The lira’s slide may fuel inflation in Europe’s fastest-growing economy and drive away the investors Turkey relies on for funding, according to Tim Ash, a London-based emerging market strategist at RBS. “Turkey needs to get its act together because there is the potential of having a proper explosion there,” Plamen Monovski, the London-based chief investment officer of Renaissance Asset Managers, which oversees about $2.2 billion, said in an interview. “The central bank has enough resources to contain a currency crisis, but it’s completely unclear why we need to be going through all these motions.” Most Bearish RBS, SocGen and Citigroup Inc. were the most bearish lira forecasters among 21 banks surveyed by Bloomberg in June, predicting a decline this quarter even as the average forecast was for a gain to 1.56 versus per dollar. Luis Costa, an emerging-market strategist at Citigroup in London, wrote in an e-mailed note today that he still recommends “short” lira positions, or bets that the currency will decline. The lira may weaken to 1.75 per dollar in the next three months, before appreciating to 1.55 over 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wrote in a research report yesterday. Today’s Retreat The lira slipped 1 percent yesterday, paring an early drop of as much as 2.2 percent after the central bank said it ended daily dollar purchases. It costs 330 basis points, or 3.3 percentage points, more for one-month option contracts granting the right to sell the lira than to buy the currency, compared with 230 at the start of the month, according to so-called risk- reversal rates compiled by Bloomberg. The Turkish currency weakened 0.1 percent against the dollar at 8:30 a.m. in London, the most among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The lira fell 1 percent versus the euro. “It does not seem that the market is going to stabilize at this level,” Benoit Anne, head of global emerging markets strategy at SocGen in London, said in an e-mail. “Market participants still don’t want to go long.” Yields on Turkey’s benchmark bonds rose 20 basis points to 8.88 percent yesterday, according to an index compiled by RBS. The ISE National 100 Index of shares rallied 2.1 percent, snapping a seven-day retreat that had sent it to a four-month low. Funding Gap About 40 percent of Turkey’s $37.2 billion current-account deficit in the first five months of the year was funded by portfolio investment, according to central bank data. “Turkey needs capital inflows to finance its huge current account deficit,” Murat Toprak, a currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “A wide lira depreciation may deteriorate confidence and impact capital inflows.” The lira rebounded from its lows yesterday after the central bank said it ended daily purchases of $30 million. Turkey has about $93 billion of foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s 20th-largest holdings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Central bank policy makers will probably use more “hawkish” public comments to stem the lira’s slide and may raise interest rates in October, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Fastest Growth Turkey’s economy, home to about 79 million people, expanded at an 11 percent pace in the first quarter, faster than any other member of the Group of 20 nations. Inflation fell to a 6.24 percent annual rate in June, lower than the 7 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg news survey of economists. The lira’s retreat “does look a bit overdone,” Nguyen said in e-mailed comments. She expects the Turkish currency to strengthen to 1.61 per dollar by the end of September. Recent statements from central bank policy makers signal they will tolerate further weakness in the lira, according to RBS’s Ash. Turkey can have “a more comfortable free-floating currency” because consumers and businesses don’t have large foreign-currency positions, the central bank’s Basci said in a speech in the southwestern city of Denizli on July 22. Nations with free-floating currencies are able to control interest rates more effectively, he said. Basci’s comment “suggests almost a green light for further lira weakness,” Ash said in an e-mailed note. Erdogan Pressure Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government may be exerting pressure on the central bank to keep interest rates low, according to Nomura Holdings and UBS AG. “There is a sense that there is some pressure on the bank to refrain from rate hikes as far as possible,” Manik Narain, an emerging-market strategist at UBS in London, said in a phone interview. Erdogan told an Islamic businessmen’s association on May 3 that he wants to make interest rates “virtually zero” after subtracting the inflation rate. Trade Minister Zafer Caglayan said this month that the current account gap doesn’t pose a threat, according to a report on Bloomberg Haberturk television. “Erdogan’s comments on real interest rates weren’t timely from a central bank independence perspective,” said Olgay Buyukkayali, a strategist at Nomura in London. Policy makers should raise rates because the current-account deficit is growing to “unmanageable” levels, he said. Fitch Ratings said on July 21 that an upgrade of Turkey’s credit rating is “uncertain” and the results of the central bank’s policies are “mixed at best.” A central bank official reached by telephone yesterday who asked not to be named declined to comment. “The biggest risk is that inadequate policy action now might require a bigger policy response later on, increasing the risk of a sharp slowdown in economic activity,” said Berna Bayazitoglu, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in London. “The sell-off might continue until we see a policy response from the central bank.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/lira-options-show-worst-emerging-currency-approaching-record-low-on-trade.html

Cool. Good idea. Maybe it can spawn a new thought or angle. Question: How do you think that pricing in Iraq will be handled post RV or RD/RV? How, who and what will be the net effect? Pro RV: Are you worried about how handing thousands of dollars to everyone in the country will effect crime? Wouldn't terrorists want to attack just about anyone due to the increased amount of money in everyone's pocket? Pro RD-RV: How does this help them in the worldwide trading arena if they only increase the value of the currency 1.1 to 4 times it's present value? Do you think that it is all that the economy can support or do you think that they simply will not want to monetize their non-liquid commodities if they are released into Ch 8 or 14 (I forget which would allow this move)?

Thanks VIZIO.

Thanks Jac. It is fun to watch even if it doesn't mean anything to us now.

Thanks for the info VIZIO. I hope this is the last time you have to bring this article to us!

Great article tim. I like there future position. Let's hope they take us along for the ride!

Love your thinking, drox. To me the best thing for us is to have them discourage a RD and have a long drawn out appreciation overtime. I believe that this is the best way for us to maximize our return. Naturally, I would love to be wrong and have it RV at a decent number today.