A Cautionary Tale Regarding the RV

[Legolas]

A Cautionary Tale

Those who have been here for a while may have read many of my previous posts. This will be my last, but I hope many will read it, and take it for what it’s worth. Most of my posts have had the purpose of encouraging “cautious optimism” for this investment, while always critical of the constant flow of rumors. I hold a large number of Dinars…..far more than I would have had I known then what I do now, and hence, the reason for this cautionary tale. As much, if not more than most, I sincerely hope to see the Dinar RV, so take the following for what it’s worth, and use your own judgment.. I hope it has some value to all.

I’m a former Police Detective and business owner who has been in this investment for about 2 years, and watching it closely for slightly longer. I was a mod on DS for a year or so, but after a few months became bored with the chat rooms and don’t miss it a bit….. way too much drama, and not nearly enough interest in learning about the investment. Most people were there to be spoon fed positive info, hoping to be convinced that the RV was imminent. I was also on Med’s private DV site for about 16 months, and have to admit that despite a dislike for the drama, I have learned a lot about Iraq, the U.N., the I.M.F., W.T.O., G.C.C., etc. Although often criticized over the past couple of years, I truly believe that Med has demonstrated a more comprehensive knowledge of this topic than the leaders/owners of any other internet site. Over the past year, he has changed his tactics 180 degrees, and ceased trusting information brought by outside sources of so-called “intel,” and instead became mostly an analyst of news and data. Since then, I believe his information has been reasonably accurate, aside from a few temptations to reveal information he believed to have some degree of significance or possibility. As has been the case with ALL “intel” on the sites, those few were wrong as well. Anyone who has ever been involved in the intel game will tell you that information received from sources is never 100% right, but far more important HERE, is that it is also never 100% wrong, as has been the case with this rumor mill. This is the primary reason for my concern.

Over the past several years, we’ve seen literally thousands of rumors, dates, rates, etc. come and go with no RV. As you know, virtually every time that the news from Iraq appears to lend credence to the possibility that a revaluation might be related, the rumor mill cranks up and the pumpers start cranking out info that the RV is imminent, boosting Dinar sales to new highs. Each and every time, as these “has to RV by” dates passes uneventfully, interest declines again until the NEXT round of good news comes along and it begins again. There’s no need to list all of these news events and reasons for RV – most know what they were, and there were many. This past week has shown a huge increase in crazy rumors as it appears that Iraq will soon finally seat their long awaited government, pass the 2011 budget, and probably, eventually, the hydrocarbon law. As is always the case, we quickly discovered that these many new rumors were total nonsense, and the pumpers were busted once again as they were proven wrong. Unfortunately, I suspect that, also, as always, many new, and probably even some seasoned investors rushed out to buy more Dinars as a result of these rumors. In addition, many likely stuck their necks out to tell their friends and relatives about the “imminent RV.” As has been the case countless times before, the RV didn’t occur, and we were again disappointed.

UNCS made an excellent post yesterday () regarding the rumors. My only criticism was that he singled out Ali, which quite possibly occurred in a moment of frustration, when it should have been painted with a broader brush. As an expert investigator who has gradually developed a healthy dose of skepticism over the past two years as the numbers of investors and the numbers of false rumors have grown by leaps and bounds, I can tell you this with a reasonable degree of certainty:

We have no way of knowing how, or by whom the so-called pumpers are rewarded for their endless and obvious services, but it should be evident to all that it's unlikely that they do it absent a personal benefit of some nature. IF in fact it is not the dealers who are ultimately responsible, then we may be in serious trouble with our investment. Clearly, after many years of this continual barrage of rumors, obvious lies, etc., everyone with a functioning brain realizes that this is not coincidence. Anyone who doesn't is quite simply delusional.

The frightening thing is that there are only two possible beneficiaries of this cleverly designed and orchestrated rumor mill. The first is obviously the dealers, and it can be difficult to understand and explain how it makes sense that the pumpers could be working for any single one, or all of the dealers in a coordinated conspiracy. It would be difficult to manage, despite the fact that clearly, they ALL benefit from the efforts of the many. Without an extremely detailed investigation involving analysis of posts, website archives, IP addresses, e-mails, etc., it would be virtually impossible to know for sure who has been involved in what, if anything, in terms of conspiracy. That’s not to say that an investigation like that couldn’t occur if some prosecutor were to decide that fraud had occurred, or if an attorney somewhere decided to file a class action lawsuit.

The second possibility, and the one that has always worried me most, is that the source of the rumors "could" be the G.O.I. itself. Over the past 7 years, by way of our investment, Iraq has been receiving HUGE amounts of money from us by way of what amounts to extremely long term, interest-free "loans" thru the purchase of our Dinars. There is no disputing the fact that by providing the dealers with literally billions of Dinars each month for the past several years, they are bringing in a continuous flow of what is likely millions of dollars a month to the government of Iraq, in exchange for what many like to routinely and repeatedly refer to as "worthless" paper. We have been given absolutely no "guarantees" of any return on our investment other than what we hear and believe from the so-called gurus and pumpers. We have heard many times over the years that: 1) Dinars are no longer being permitted to leave Iraq; 2) The Dinar supply is drying up; 3) Fed Ex can't transport them from Iraq; etc. Yet amazingly, there seems to be a never-ending supply of Dinars sent to the dealers with no apparent difficulty, despite occasional shortages caused by investors purchasing huge quantities every time the rumor mill is cranking up for one reason or another. This is somewhat disturbing, to say the least, and makes you go hmmmmmmm. They know that we're unlikely to exchange our Dinars back to U.S. currency at a loss of anywhere between 20-50% of our investment, "primarily" because we fear that the moment we do, the RV will occur. It's a win-win situation for Iraq, and most investors will wait indefinitely, or until they have no choice for financial reasons.

I'm sure that if the RV doesn't occur in the very near future, (after this next set of important benchmarks is reached) many of us are going to become increasingly concerned, and many are already voicing the frustration caused by the recent flood of false rumors. Admittedly, nobody wants to hear any of this, but uncs made a valid argument. There's not much we can do at this point but wait and hope. After 2 years of riding this rollercoaster, I’m still slightly hopeful, but I have to admit, becoming less confident as time goes on. At any rate, I hope that others will take up the cause of informing the new investors and visitors to the various websites to be wary of the rumors and consider their actions carefully. Posts like this one should be required reading at EVERY Dinar website, and become permanently pinned where every member can see them, but I have a feeling that won't ever happen. My professional advice to everyone is to tell no one about your investment, for many different reasons, not the least of which is security. Read the archives, and NEVER believe the rumors. I suspect that we may see the rumors become less specific now. Since anger has grown to a fever pitch, we’ll likely see a more restrained campaign from those attempting to convince us to buy, probably telling us that it will DEFINITELY happen, but they don’t know WHEN. The bottom line is that those who know for sure will never tell....that much you can be sure of. I would suggest that everyone back away to a great extent from constantly watching the websites, Rest assured that if and when the RV occurs, EVERYONE will know and word will travel fast. It won’t be a gradual process as many of the rumors would have liked us to believe. Good luck to all, and GO RV!

[smed]

Well thought out and a good read...

[hlslady]

This is a most excellent post, thank you Legolas!

[Econman33]

Thanks for the sobering post. I have been in the Dinar investment less than a year. I would have never even considered it 2 years ago. The odds were way to low to risk the investment back then. The last couple of months things in Iraq have improved dramatically. I will not say an RV will or will not happen. That is why I have always treated my Dinar like a penny stock in a big oil and gas company with really bad management operating in a war zone. So I just sit back and wait for good news or bad. Hoping for the best.

[venetia]

An interesting, logical and extremely sensible view point which makes a great deal of sense and is a welcome change to some of the posts which are clearly written in LA LA Land......thank you for sharing and I hope that people take the time to read and absorb it.

[hopefullbk]

Good read Leg.

If folks just stop buying them, the view of the landscape relative to this investment would come into view in very short order.

Thats asking the impossible as greed seems to get the best of everyone.

Anyway, thanks for the comments, it should bring some clarity to many.

[InToWin]

i hope it happens. i really do.

i was talked into investing in the dinar by a friend, and he said to watch the forums on a couple websites, but,

aren't most of these sites run by dinar dealers or pumpers? isn't it in there best interest to keep good rumors flowing?

there are different degrees of pumpification. some say tomorrow, some say next week, some say this month looks good, and some just say stay invested. they are designed to attract and keep attracting the different types of investors.

the only reason i come to any of these forums is for entertainment purposes only. anyone who invests money without individual research deserves what they get.

everything you need to know about currency speculation can be found on the internet. there is no need to listen to bad rumors, and bad "intel".

[Hope Floats.Rates Dont]

Great work...how bout we all obsess this feverishly about our own country and the real problems here...starting in D.C.

[NotReallyTex]

Blah Blah Blah....How come you all of you are saying good post but none of you are asking him to stay?

Legolas I really hope you change your mind and this is not your last post! I really have enjoyed your comments and honest opinions!

Besides that though Good Post.

But stay

[prettybaby]

Finally, an honest post. Thank you so much for sharing your experience.

[MrRich]

A Cautionary Tale

Those who have been here for a while may have read many of my previous posts. This will be my last, but I hope many will read it, and take it for what it’s worth.

Legolas I have always enjoyed reading your posts. As I told you once you and I think a lot alike. I'm sorry to see you go but I understand there comes a time for all of us to decide when to get off the roller coaster ride and get on with our lives. I'm going to hang in there a bit longer as I feel things could unfold in Feb. I have discussed with another DV member (I can't remember who right now) that I have noticed many good people getting burned by bad intel from trusted sources. These people are not pumpers and they're not stupid. I am convinced that there is in fact a well orchestrated disinformation campaign being conducted on the dinar that goes far beyond the likes of TerryK and Okie. People who never even log on to a dinar site are talking with forex traders, government officials, military leaders, bankers ... etc. and saying things like the IMF is going to force the RV by a certain date. Members of DV or other dinar sites are privvy to this "intel" and pass it on to others via emails or PMs so it doesn't have the feel of typical pumping. And yet the result is just as flawed as the pumpers' weekly RV prediction. Could it be the GOI? I hope not but I suspect that you're right. If we don't see an RV following the resolution of the issues you raised then I think we have to accept the possibility that we've all been had. In the meantime I'll try to stay positive and try to keep the rumormongers accountable. Take care my friend.

[terrigray]

I have been in this investment since September 2005. At that time the rumor was that you could only buy dinar until November 2005 and they would not be selling it anymore in the US and they were looking for an RV at a rate of about $3.22 which was the rate of the dinar before the US invaded Iraq. So I just put the dinars in a safe place knowing it would not be in play for 7-10 years. In April 2010 I found this site and was shocked that the rumors had been going on strong since 2009 and maybe even longer. I did open up a Warka account something I was not aware of until I joined this site. I just paid the minimum amount. That's all the dinar I have and do not plan on buying anymore. I bought what I could afford and whether it rv's at .10 or $5.27 I will be happy. I could definitely use the money more today than ever before but will leave my financial situation in the hands of my Higher Power and move forward in faith, one day at a time.

I have found it fasinating to learn about the politics of Iraq and with great interest would love to see their country grow and prosper for the good of all involved especially the Iraqi people.

[kwanvestor]

Legolas, you need to stay on here. I believe your background is valuable your thoughts could be on the money. I do not think that the Iraq needs to pump as I would imagine there are some dinar dealers that take carte of that for them. I think we will know shortly whether this complicated "deal" will come together or not. I got into this about two and a half months ago. It's a lot of mental gymnastics to disern what might be well meaning "intel" (which might actually be information that fits into a multifaceted puzzle) from pumper posts. Being naturally skeptical, I have learned to read factual information and use that as my basis of trying to assess where we are in this this speculative investment. However, some of this "intel" might actually give us some clues as well. I know one thing, we will probably know once the government is formed whether this will happen or not. To me its all news driven now and not "intel" driven. Take a break from it and come back some time soon.

[Legolas]

Legolas I have always enjoyed reading your posts. As I told you once you and I think a lot alike. I'm sorry to see you go but I understand there comes a time for all of us to decide when to get off the roller coaster ride and get on with our lives. I'm going to hang in there a bit longer as I feel things could unfold in Feb. I have discussed with another DV member (I can't remember who right now) that I have noticed many good people getting burned by bad intel from trusted sources. These people are not pumpers and they're not stupid. I am convinced that there is in fact a well orchestrated disinformation campaign being conducted on the dinar that goes far beyond the likes of TerryK and Okie. People who never even log on to a dinar site are talking with forex traders, government officials, military leaders, bankers ... etc. and saying things like the IMF is going to force the RV by a certain date. Members of DV or other dinar sites are privvy to this "intel" and pass it on to others via emails or PMs so it doesn't have the feel of typical pumping. And yet the result is just as flawed as the pumpers' weekly RV prediction. Could it be the GOI? I hope not but I suspect that you're right. If we don't see an RV following the resolution of the issues you raised then I think we have to accept the possibility that we've all been had. In the meantime I'll try to stay positive and try to keep the rumormongers accountable. Take care my friend.

Great post Mr. Rich, and I agree with virtually everything you said. I've enjoyed your posts as well as many others in the rational crowd. I wasn't planning on leaving completely. I'll continue to watch occasionally, as the addiction is undoubtedly difficult to kick. I've just grown tired of the day to day insanity, and feel that much of it is a complete waste of time and effort. People are going to believe what they desperately want to believe, and it seems that very little which any of us say about it will make a great deal of difference one way or the other. My background dictates that I have a degree of concern for the little guy, and a strong desire to point out the difference between right, wrong, and the occasional blurred lines between the two. I just felt that it was important that I make a final statement, and hope that the caution spreads around to all of the sites. I sincerely believe that the Koolaid needs to be diluted a bit. Great responses gang, and thanks. Keep up the good work.

[lionfish]

Thank you for the great post. I have only been in this for a little bit, and likewise signed up for the forum a week ago. Your post is a great history lesson of what has been going on

[lechesuerte]

I wonder if it trully is the GOI behind all of this as well but with one caveat. I think it is a possiblity that we've been had as Mr. Rich put it, but I wonder if this isn't the ultimate disinformation act. Maybe they are trully about six months to almost two years from enacting the RV plan. The GOI makes it seem as though it is always one step away from happening when in fact it is many steps, months or even a year or two away. So back to the theory, they squeeze the last bit of "the interest free loan" out of you and me and don't RV here soon , only to slowly purchase back many of the dinar from the dealers as we get tired of the stories, lies and games and sell back the dinar. Maybe over the next year or two, the GOI can purchase 10-30% of the dinars back, then the GOI RV's. Well that would be one hell of a deal for the Iraqi government and the dealers to boot (who are making money on both sides of the transaction). This theory has been in the back of my mind for a while, legolas' post prompted me to share, and although it maybe a bit off base it certainly would make sense. Anyways - I'm with the positive thinking group for now. Keep the faith and GO RV!

[rwharnden]

Legolas! Good luck and God Bless Buddy!

[venetia]

I wonder if it trully is the GOI behind all of this as well but with one caveat. I think it is a possiblity that we've been had as Mr. Rich put it, but I wonder if this isn't the ultimate disinformation act. Maybe they are trully about six months to almost two years from enacting the RV plan. The GOI makes it seem as though it is always one step away from happening when in fact it is many steps, months or even a year or two away. So back to the theory, they squeeze the last bit of "the interest free loan" out of you and me and don't RV here soon , only to slowly purchase back many of the dinar from the dealers as we get tired of the stories, lies and games and sell back the dinar. Maybe over the next year or two, the GOI can purchase 10-30% of the dinars back, then the GOI RV's. Well that would be one hell of a deal for the Iraqi government and the dealers to boot (who are making money on both sides of the transaction). This theory has been in the back of my mind for a while, legolas' post prompted me to share, and although it maybe a bit off base it certainly would make sense. Anyways - I'm with the positive thinking group for now. Keep the faith and GO RV!

Interesting posts from both you and Mr Rich and part of me is inclined to agree with you both that this a possibility but like both of you I too remain positive for now that it will happen but it will be when THEY want it to...Simple as that.

[Butifldrm]

Legolas, thanks for your insight. You covered a range of thoughts and emotions, that I have periodically experienced over the past two years. I also, at times find myself drinking the Kool-aid, but I do know this investment is a gamble and an addiction, that only an RV or redenomination will cure. I pray for all us that we do get a happy ending. But, if we don't, Life will go on. I have enjoyed reading reading your posts. We all need a shot of reality at times from a Dr. of truth. Don't leave!

[jmac8862]

Very good food for thought. All we can do is treat it like any investment and no matter what return on the investment just realize that it is part of the game. If every investment was 100% gauranteed there would be a lot more wealthy people in the world. People have to look at it as a "possibility" of a substancial return or maybe none at all. Just play it safe and hope for an RV. Good luck to all

[KramerDinar]

Isn't the US the ones in control of the GOI based on the fact that we virtually built it and appointed someone to it. If this was all a basis of what is spoken, then would that mean our own government is taking us for a ride? It is not like it will be the first time and surely will not be the last.

[PrinceAbubu]

Great post Legolas !!

I think you are saying what most of us (with brains) are thinking.

Good to hear from sombody that has some 'reality' left in their life.

By the way, I'd delighted to buy your dinar at $1000 per million :-)

Thanks for the post !!

[pleasantvalleySunday]

I have been saying for MONTHS now that we should STOP BUYING and in fact sell a bit back ... just see what happens or how the "stories change" ...

I've valued your in-put and would say you've contributed to keeping DV "real". Thanks!!!

This doesn't mean I don't believe in the investment ... it just means I'm not greedy and am curious as to what might "come down"

[Linda]

A Cautionary Tale

Those who have been here for a while may have read many of my previous posts. This will be my last, but I hope many will read it, and take it for what it’s worth. Most of my posts have had the purpose of encouraging “cautious optimism” for this investment, while always critical of the constant flow of rumors. I hold a large number of Dinars…..far more than I would have had I known then what I do now, and hence, the reason for this cautionary tale. As much, if not more than most, I sincerely hope to see the Dinar RV, so take the following for what it’s worth, and use your own judgment.. I hope it has some value to all.

Legolas...Thank you for your excellent post...take care...hope you don't leave however, whatever your journey is, take care...God Bless...

[Carrello]

Legolas,

I for one will miss your insightful posts. I am sorry to see this is your last.

Take care and I hope you will still be lurking.

Carrello