Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages

[Pitcher]

Economists: Higher Oil Prices Here To Stay

May 01, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT

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Economists have jacked up the projection for U.S. light crude to average $60.23 per barrel in 2019 from a $58.92 forecast in March in the second and most bullish upwards revision since the beginning of the year. 

The verdict was rendered by 31 economists in Reuters latest monthly survey, and it forecasts that oil prices are likely to stay elevated for the rest of the year as OPEC output curbs and an end to waivers on Iranian oil are expected to keep supply tight.

 

 

For Brent crude, the experts have forecast and average $68.57 a barrel in 2019, an improvement on the March poll forecast of $67.12.

The majority of polled analysts expect OPEC cuts to be extended till the end of the year, even though they expect the group to increase production to compensate for lower output in Iran and Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW, told Reuters that the decision by the US to remove waivers for Iranian oil is likely to remove another 0.5-1 million barrels per day from the market, thus making supply even tighter.

Oil has rallied about 40 percent this year buoyed by a deal by OPEC and other leading producers to curb output.

 

 

Source: Nasdaq

OPEC vs. Shale

There’s a possibility that prices could ratchet even higher if OPEC fails to fully anticipate falling output elsewhere.

 

Harry Tchilinguirian, strategist at BNP Paribas, says there’s a real risk of supply overtightening if OPEC and NOPEC allies led by Russia fail to make allowances for unplanned outages in Iran and Venezuela, but instead decide to roll over the existing cuts when they meet again in Vienna in June. Related: High-Cost Oil Faces Existential Risk

On the flipside, countries like the U.S. will be looking to capitalize on the shortfall.

The United States has been pressuring OPEC to increase output to compensate for reduced supply by the likes of Iran and Venezuela, and is likely to increase its own production. Capital Economics analyst, Caroline Bain, says the elimination of logistical bottlenecks and prevailing high prices are likely to encourage more U.S. drilling.

Indeed, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude output from the seven major shale formations is likely to climb to 8.46 million bpd in May. Consequently, this is likely to depress prices some, with Brent dropping from $70 per barrel during the second and third quarters of the current year to around ~$69 by year-end.

Output from U.S. shale has doubled over the past five years, and further increases could flood the market. Currently, there’s a tug-of-war between U.S. and OPEC with the former looking to fast-track the approval of the “The No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act 2019” (Nopec) bill that will allow the U.S. to prosecute OPEC for fixing oil prices.

Excessively bullish

Yet, the bullish oil thesis could still be upset by hedge funds throwing a spanner in the works.

Over the last 10 weeks, hedge funds have been furiously amassing oil futures contracts counting on OPEC exceeding its planned production cuts, Venezuela’s production drying up, Libya’s supply continuing to deteriorate, and global oil demand growth continuing unabated. While these factors remain valid for now, net long positions in WTI and Brent are looking too bullish, thus increasing the risk of a crash if oil prices start dropping or some fund managers begin to take profits.

Data by Reuters market analyst John Kemp shows that as of April 23, long positions in WTI Crude and Brent Crude held by hedge fund and other money managers outnumbered shorts in a ratio of 11:1. The last time bullish positioning was that stretched was back in October 2018 around the time prices began a descent before eventually crashing 40 percent by the end of the year.

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Economists-Higher-Oil-Prices-Here-To-Stay.html

[Pitcher]

Oil didn’t trade like it was going to stay higher today.  Big down day in the oil patch, I was shorting Hal early, then moved to Eog and Cxo.  

[Pitcher]

Saudi Arabia, UAE “Draw The Death And Collapse Of OPEC

 

In among the multitude of threats that Iran has made public since the US sanctions on Iran were levied, Iran has now heralded the collapse of OPEC, if OPEC members fill the void by snagging market share left unfilled by Iran and Venezuela, according to S&P Global Platts.

Iran’s oil minister said that two OPEC members were doing just that, accusing them of wielding their oil as a weapon. The two members Zanganeh was referring to were Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

 

 

It’s interesting to note that both Saudi Arabia has unduly taken on the burden of cutting production. Saudi Arabia has agreed to keep its production to 10.311 million barrels per day, while the UAE’s target is 3.072 million bpd.

Saudi Arabia has been overachieving its share of the production cuts, producing 9.794 million bpd in March. Similarly, the UAE is producing closer to target—but is still under at 3.059 for March.

The “oil weapon”, then, to which Iran is referring, according to S&P Global Platts, is their contact with the United States to come up with a plan to ensure that the oil market is well supplied. Thus far, Saudi Arabia has not increased production to fill any void left by either Iran or Venezuela.

 

“By using oil as a weapon against two founding members of OPEC [Venezuela and Iran], [they] turn OPEC solidarity into division and draw the death and collapse of OPEC,” Zanganeh said, warning that any country using oil to this end should “accept its consequences.” Related: The Beginning Of The End For British Shale Gas

 

 

Iran and Venezuela have indeed suffered falling oil production as the sanctions on both countries restrict exports and cut out buyers such as India, South Korea, and Cuba who will have to shop elsewhere to obtain sufficient quantities of crude oil.

Venezuela’s oil production fell below 1 million bpd in March at 732,000 bpd, while Iran’s fell to 2.698 million bpd—with more decreases expected as the sanction waivers that eight countries have thus far enjoyed end today. Iran’s 208 average production was 3.553 million bpd, while Venezuela’s averaged 1.354 bpd, according to secondary sources provided by OPEC.

The tough times in which Iran and Venezuela now find themselves may continue to drive a wedge into the oil cartel as other members will naturally respond to market demand as they are able.

 

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-UAE-Draw-The-Death-And-Collapse-Of-OPEC.html

[yota691]

US oil inventories jump 9.9 million barrels

 01 May 2019 05:51 PM
Mubasher: Oil inventories in the United States rose more strongly than expected last week, as gasoline stocks rose.

The US Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that oil inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week ending April 26 to 470.6 million barrels.

Analysts had expected crude inventories to rise 1.3 million barrels last week.

US gasoline inventories rose 0.9 million barrels last week.

By 2:33 pm GMT, the benchmark Brent crude for July delivery settled at $ 72.08 a barrel.

While US crude futures for June delivery fell 0.4% to $ 63.66 a barrel.

 

[yota691]

Oil prices are falling as US production hit a record high

Economy | 11:03 - 02/05/2019

 

 

 

Follow - up to the balance of News 
Oil prices fell on Thursday under a record production of US crude, leading to sleep in stocks. 
But oil markets remained tense with the expiration of exemptions from US sanctions on Iran, the worsening political crisis in Venezuela and the continued reduction in OPEC supply. 
Announcement 
At 0655 GMT, futures contracts for Brent crude at $ 71.81 a barrel, down 35 cents, equivalent to 0.5 percent from its latest close. 
US crude was down 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $ 63.33 a barrel. 
"Crude oil prices fell sharply as inventories in the US rose to their highest level since 2017," ANZ Bank said on Thursday.
"This comes as US refiners enter the spring maintenance season, fueling fears that demand for crude oil will be weak and inventories will continue to rise.

[yota691]

Iran: We will respond if OPEC members threaten our interests

Editorial date: 2019/5/2 22:38 • 393 times read

Iran will respond if other Opec members threaten its interests amid mounting pressure from Washington to cut Iran's crude oil sales to zero with the help of Tehran rivals in the region, Oil Minister Begin Zanganeh said on Thursday.

The United States has asked Iranian oil buyers to stop buying at the beginning of May or face sanctions, ending a six-month exemption that allowed the eight largest Iranian oil buyers, most of them in Asia, to import limited quantities. 
Saudi Arabia welcomed the US move to end all exemptions and said it was ready to meet the demand of oil consumers for alternative supplies of Iranian crude. 
After meeting OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo in Tehran, Zangane warned that OPEC might "collapse" due to "unilateral actions" by some of its members, in a clear reference to Saudi Arabia. 
"Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries because of its interests and if other members of OPEC try to threaten Iran or jeopardize its interests, it will not remain silent," Zanghane was quoted as saying.
Earlier on Thursday, Barkindo said at an oil and gas conference in Tehran, "OPEC is trying to separate oil from politics," the Iranian Oil Ministry reported on Twitter. 
"I told my OPEC colleagues to leave their passports at home when they came to this organization," Barkindo was quoted as saying. 
Asked whether it was technically possible to implement US sanctions on Iran, Barkindo said, "It is impossible to remove Iranian oil from the market." 
"We have had problems with Opec in the last 60 years, but we have been able to solve them in isolation," said Barkindo. 
"What is happening in Iran, Venezuela, or Libya affects the entire market and the energy sector."

 

 

[yota691]

Oil prices are retreating and heading for losses for the second consecutive week

 03 May 2019 09:39 p
Mubasher: Oil prices fell on Friday, as US production increased, heading for losses for the second week in a row.

By 0625 GMT, the benchmark Brent crude for July delivery fell 0.4% to $ 70.47 a barrel.

US crude futures for June delivery fell 0.2% to $ 61.72 a barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration announced this week to increase production to a new record by 100 thousand barrels per day to 12.300 million barrels per day in the week ended April 26.

The rise in US crude output coincides with the decline in production from some OPEC countries such as Venezuela and the suspension of the US exemption, which allowed some countries to import oil from Iran without economic sanctions.

Later in the day, Baker Hughes, the US crude oil drilling platform, will be announced.

 

[DoD]

Good morning yota an thanks again for the articles.

It appears Iran has gone into desperation mode, now threatening their own OPEC countries. 

 

[yota691]

Saudi Coast Guard Rescues Iranian Oil Ship in Red Sea - Reports

© AFP 2019 / ATTA KENARE

MIDDLE EAST

05:59 02.05.2019(updated 06:00 02.05.2019)

The crew of the Iranian oil ship were rescued by the Saudi Coast Guard without any injuries, according to Saudi media.

Saudi Coast Guard reportedly rescued an Iranian oil ship near Jeddah Islamic Port in the Red Sea, the Saudi Press news Agency (SPA) said early on Thursday.

According to the report, the 26-sailor crew of the ship "Happiness 1" carrying oil products were all rescued without injury.

 

Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are founding members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and two of the world’s largest oil suppliers have no diplomatic ties since January 2016 after attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran took place.

[yota691]

Saudi Arabia plans to raise oil production to 10 million barrels in June

Economy | 01:29 - 04/05/2019

 

 

 

Follow - up - News balances 
familiar with Saudi policy sources said that the Kingdom 's production of oil could rise in June, but the extra crude could be used to generate electricity locally is not to promote exports , which Washington wants. 
The sources added that any increase in production of Saudi Arabia will remain within its production share within the framework of the supply reduction agreement concluded between OPEC and its allies, within the group, which is known as "OPEC +". 
Saudi Arabia's largest crude exporter is expected to reach around 10 million bpd in May, slightly higher than April, but remains below the 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) OPEC quota, according to industry sources.
The sources pointed out that the increase in May production is not linked to Washington's efforts to pump more OPEC oil after the end of the exemptions granted to the purchaser of Iranian crude. The exemptions allowed the purchase of oil from Iran despite US sanctions. 
"The Saudis want oil prices to stay at current levels for at least a month or two and not to increase production above 10.3 million bpd because they are part of the Opec + agreement, but they are also under pressure from the United States to increase production," one source said. 
"The sure thing is that if customers ask for more oil they will then raise production," he said. 
It is usual for Riyadh to increase production during the hot summer months to feed its oil-powered power plants and meet high demand, which means that exports do not necessarily rise.
Last week, US President Donald Trump said he had contacted Saudi Arabia and OPEC and asked for a reduction in oil prices, but did not say who he spoke with or when. 
Oil prices rose to a six-month high last week, above $ 75 a barrel, partly because of worries about a drop in Iranian supplies. Brent hit $ 70 on Thursday

[yota691]

Oil Minister: Iraq respects the OPEC agreement and will not make an individual decision

 

energy Economy News _ Baghdad The Deputy Prime Minister for Energy and Minister of Oil, after his arrival in the Qatari capital Doha, on Sunday, Iraq's commitment to the agreement of producers in the Organization "OPEC" and its allies from outside the organization led by Russia, which was in December 2018.  The Minister of Oil Thamir Abbas Ghadhban, A press statement issued after his arrival in Doha, and received the "Economy News" a copy of it, that Iraq respects the agreement to reduce production and committed to beyond, because the aim to restore balance to the global oil market, which witnessed during the past years fluctuation and a significant decline in prices, Which led to a halt to the deterioration of prices Oil and restore confidence in the global market and support oil prices to more than $ 70 a barrel after falling to below forty dollars. He stressed that Iraq will not take an individual decision to increase production to compensate for the shortage of oil supplies, whatever the reasons, because it respects the collective decision of the Organization, which seeks to strengthen its unity and strength and cohesion in global markets and work to   stabilize world oil markets and obtain fair prices for producers and consumers alike. Al-Ghadhban concluded that the producers of OPEC and its external allies are the only ones to take the decision to increase or decrease production according to a study and an in-depth review of the actual need of the global market and the circumstances and challenges surrounding it. The Ministerial Committee for Monitoring will hold its meeting in Riyadh on May 19, Iraq to discuss market conditions and listen to the report of the Committee in order to make the necessary recommendations to the ministerial meeting to be held in Vienna during the month of June to take the appropriate decision. Views 39   Date Added 05/05/2019

[6ly410]

 

Sunday، 05 May 2019 03:38 PM

Iraq oil minister says won't decide unilaterally to boost output

 

https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/39185/Iraq-oil-minister-says-won-t-decide-unilaterally-to-boost-output

Thamir Ghadhban

Iraq's oil minister said on Sunday his country was committed to an OPEC-led crude output cut, which has supported prices, and would not decide unilaterally on any production boost to meet a potential supply shortage.

The minister, Thamir Ghadhban, is visiting Doha and made the comments in a statement issued by his ministry. 

[6ly410]

Iraq Committed to OPEC Oil Output Cut: Minister

 

Basnews English 05/05/2019 - 16:39 Published in World

 

 

http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/economy/world/518803

 

ERBIL — Iraqi Oil Minister reiterated his country’s commitment to an oil output cut led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which is devised to control international oil prices.

Thamer Ghadhban said Iraq will not unilaterally boost production until OPEC decides on the matter.

Oil exports from Iraqi oilfields in the month of April generated more than $7 billion for Baghdad.

It exported 3.47 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in April, which made the export just under 104 million.

Authorities previously said the country has the capacity to produce 4.6 million bpd.

Edited May 5, 2019 by 6ly410

[yota691]

Expert confirms the sensitivity of Iraq's position after the Trump decision to stop the exemptions related to Iranian oil

 

Oil expert Hamza al - Jawahiri

energy Economy News Baghdad Oil expert Hamza al-Jawahri confirmed on Sunday the sensitivity of the situation in Iraq after Trump's decision not to renew exemptions related to Iranian oil. US President Donald Trump has decided not to renew Iranian oil exemptions at the end of May. The White House said in a statement that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other allies of Washington will be able to fill the vacuum left by the absence of Iranian oil. Al-Jawahiri said in an interview with "Economy News" that "Iraq is committed to the decisions of OPEC in terms of increasing production or not, pointing out that he does not want to be in confrontation with the decisions of OPEC and the United States, being the top of the issue of reducing world oil prices, Iraq) does not want to "anger Iran." "Iraq does not take an individual decision to increase production to compensate for the shortage of oil supplies for whatever reasons because it respects the collective decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which seeks to strengthen its unity, strength and cohesion in world markets and stabilize world oil markets and obtain fair prices for producers and consumers. Both". Views 11   Date Added 06/05/2019

[yota691]

Oil falls after China's Trump threatens to raise tariffs

Economy | 11:06 - 06/05/2019

 

 

 

Follow - up to the balance of News 
Oil prices fell on Monday, after US President Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods this week, which threatens to disrupt trade talks between the two biggest economies in the world. 
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $ 60.57 a barrel at 0646 GMT, down $ 1.37 or 2.2 percent from the previous settlement. 
Brent crude fell below $ 70 a barrel and traded in futures at $ 69.34 a barrel, down $ 1.51, or 2.1 percent, at the closing price. 
Trump wrote on Twitter on Sunday that it would raise tariffs a lot on Chinese goods this week, pushing the financial markets to drop including oil futures.
"Trump's sudden tough stance on China's tariffs has worried investors who are quick to reduce their risk exposure in the markets," said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London-based capital group brokerage Brokerage. 
"The prospect of stalled months of trade talks over Trump has raised concerns about oil demand in the future," he said

[yota691]

A new alliance threatens OPEC's dominance of markets

 

 2019/05/06 08:21:59

India and China are close to forming a coalition of oil consumers, a move that could favor the oil market for consumers, giving them strength when negotiating with suppliers, the Economic Times reported.

The newspaper said that this alliance of buyers will lead to a decline in the influence of "OPEC", as the coalition will negotiate collectively on the supply of oil.

She added that Asian countries rely mainly on producers in West Asia, including the Gulf countries, to meet their oil needs, and this dependence is in favor of producers, who impose their prices on Asian countries.

The plan, developed by China and India, the second and third largest oil importer in the world, will help buyers make better deals with oil producers, according to the Economic Times.

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Markets-In-Tailspin-After-Trump-Reignites-Trade-War.html
 

Global Markets In Tailspin After Trump Reignites Trade War

By Nick Cunningham - May 06, 2019, 5:00 PM CDT

Oil prices sank on Monday morning after President Trump decided to reignite the trade war with China just before it was supposed to be resolved.

Trump took to twitter to announce a major escalation in the trade fight, apparently in a bid to make China buckle under the pressure. Seemingly out of nowhere, after weeks of encouraging press coverage that seemed to suggest the two sides were zeroing in on a deal, Trump said that he would hike tariffs by the end of the week, blaming China for dragging its feet.

The tweet sent global financial markets into a tailspin, not least because it caught everyone off guard. The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 5 percent on Monday while the Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 1.5 percent. Trump says that U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods will jump from 10 to 25 percent by the end of this week. He also said new tariffs would go up on an additional $325 billion worth of goods. That tranche of goods, to be hit with tariffs “shortly,” would see levies at a rate of 25 percent.

The question now is how Beijing will respond. China’s vice premier Liu He was about to travel to the U.S. in what the world had widely thought would be the final sprint to a trade deal. As of Monday, a Chinese spokesman said that a trade delegation would still make the trip, although exactly who would show up was unclear.

President Trump seems to be emboldened by a series of strong jobs reports in the U.S., while China’s economy has already begun to slow.

It is unclear if Trump will follow through on the threat. In various fights over the last two years, one of his negotiating tactics is to issue over-the-top threats in an effort to browbeat his counterpart into making concessions. Often he secures a minor or even a cosmetic concession, he declares victory and scraps his threat (see: North Korea).

 

It’s unclear if we will see the same script play out this time, but it is hard to imagine the U.S. following through on such a punitive measure. After all, while the U.S. economy appears to be doing well, the economies of both countries are intertwined.

“If tariffs are hiked this Friday and new tariffs come soon after that the biggest negative impact will likely occur in the next few months,” Tao Wang, an economist at UBS, said in a research note. She said that an escalation of the trade war could slash China’s GDP growth by 1.6 to 2 percentage points.

Needless to say, the damage to the Chinese economy would boomerang back to the U.S., slowing growth and presenting a series of headwinds for a variety of sectors. U.S. agriculture, for instance, has already been hit hardby the trade war, dealing American farmers their worst debt crisis since the 1980s.

The oil industry could also be dragged down by punitive tariffs. Chinese tariffs on U.S. oil and gas could rise to a reciprocal 25 percent tariff. That could scramble trade flows. “If the government adopts a ***-for-tat tariff approach and imposes additional tariffs on US crude, we may have to switch back to using West African crude,” a source with a Sinopec refinery told S&P Global Platts. At the same time, U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have curtailed alternative supplies. Chinese refiners may have to pay a premium to find supplies elsewhere. 

But the direct impact on oil and gas flows from tariffs pales in comparison to the broader negative impact on the global economy. Shaving a few percentage points off of Chinese GDP would erase a significant chunk of oil demand, while the knock on effects from a slowdown in China would be felt elsewhere as well. “The prospect of months of trade talks being derailed by Trump has raised concerns over future demand for oil,” Jasper Lawler, head of research at futures brokerage London Capital Group, told Reuters. It only takes a slightly lower demand figure to have an enormous effect on prices.

Yet, this scenario is not a given. As mentioned, Trump is prone to bluster, and a trade deal or a climb-down is still possible. Goldman Sachs says the possibility of a deal is only “slightly” lower after Trump’s tweet. The investment bank said the most important indicator to watch is if the Chinese trade delegation travels to Washington for negotiations, or cancels the trip altogether. If they make the trip, that suggests a deal is close. If they pull out, an agreement is “very unlikely,” Goldman said.

Oil prices recovered some lost terrain on Monday afternoon as traders continue to be concerned about the lower volumes from Iran following the full implementation of sanctions on that country.

[yota691]

Oil scarcity drives US companies to Iraq

Editorial date: 2019/5/6 23:20 • 227 times read

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - US refiners are turning to less-used oil suppliers following US sanctions, tying up traditional suppliers of more widely used materials as they prepare for the summer peak season.

This month, Iraq, Nigeria, Brazil and Angola are expected to deliver their largest shipments of crude oil to the United States in more than 18 months, according to RevContef Aikon and trade sources, which will help meet the needs of much needed heavy sulfur ore, Reuters said. 
Refinitive data showed that imports in May from these countries are expected to reach 1.23 million bpd, more than double the April imports. These shipments include 11 tankers carrying about 600,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude, the highest level of that country in a year.
The increase in imports from these countries compared to the previous month is due to lower supplies from Venezuela and Iran due to US sanctions, and curbing OPEC production, which reduced the availability of heavy and medium-sourced crude. US refiners are in the process of finishing spring maintenance and heading towards the holiday season, where demand for gasoline is rising. 
Trade companies said the shipments from those four countries would compensate most of Venezuela's oil losses from sanctions. The move to prevent the flow of dollars on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government this year has stalled US purchases, which last year amounted to about 500,000 bpd.
Nigeria and Angola are expected to hand over 420,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month, the highest level of the two West African countries in 13 months. There are also 206,000 barrels per day of Brazilian crude expected to be delivered in May, the largest amount since August. is over

[yota691]

Oil prices rise due to Saudi comments

 

energy Economy News - Baghdad Oil prices rose on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia said the producers' agreement to cut output "OPEC +" may be decided to extend after June to cover the whole year. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih's comments came despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to compensate for the expected shortfall in tightening US sanctions on Iran. At 08:09 GMT, Brent crude was trading at $ 72.28 a barrel, up 0.33% from the latest close. US crude <WTI> rose 0.38% to $ 63.74 a barrel. Prices were under pressure earlier in the session, after Chinese data showed that the world's second-largest economy was still struggling to regain momentum. Views 22   Date Added 07/05/2019

[yota691]

US Petroleum Institute: Crude oil inventories rise 2.8 million barrels last week

 

Arab and international Economy News _ Baghdad Crude oil inventories in the US rose more-than-expected last week, while inventories of gasoline and distillates fell, US Petroleum Institute data showed. Crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels in the week ending May 3 to 469.2 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 1.2 million barrel increase. Crude stocks at the delivery center in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased 618,000 barrels, the institute said. According to API data, crude refinery consumption rates increased 75,000 bpd. Gasoline inventories fell 2.8 million barrels, compared to analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll of 434,000 barrels. While data from the Institute showed distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 834,000 barrels, compared to expectations of 1.1 million barrels. US crude imports last week rose by 120,000 bpd to 7.7 million bpd. Views 17   Date Added 05/08/2019

[Butifldrm]

 

2019/05/08 15:07

• Number of readings 176
• Section: Iraq
•  
•  

Iraq rivals Saudi Arabia for OPEC leadership and falters over foreign firms

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Oil market research firm Oil PricewaterhouseCoopers on Wednesday (May 8th, 2019) unveiled Iraqi efforts to take over the leadership of OPEC instead of Saudi Arabia, as competition intensified between the two sides.

"Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil exporter with a production capacity of 12.5 million bpd, and of course the diplomatic relations it enjoys, can be the informal leader of OPEC, as Saudi Arabia is now," the report said.

"The relations enjoyed by Iraq will enable it to develop its oil fields very quickly and extend wide networks unlike Saudi Arabia, where it is rumored that the Iraqi intention to revive the project of an oil pipeline, starting from Kirkuk through Syria and even Lebanon, where the project was canceled after the first Gulf War.

"Iraq is seeking to increase its oil network as well as its production, where the Iraqi authorities plan to reach daily production of 8.5 million barrels per day, by 2025."

The report pointed out that "what hampers Iraq's position now the most powerful influence in OPEC, is the control of foreign oil companies to two thirds of the country's fields, which makes the oil decision is not completely independent, because of the contracts and economic interests of major companies."

Follow the obelisk

 

http://almasalah.com/ar/news/170537/العراق-ينافس-السعودية-على-قيادة-اوبك-ويتعثر-بسبب-الشركات-الاجنبية

[10 YEARS LATER]

Let's just begin organizing the " Leadership " and make a positive concerted effort leading Iraq before y'all get deluded into thinking you be in charge of OPEC. 

[Butifldrm]

Oil Minister: Iraq will not change its export policy and its commitment to OPEC

08:58 - 09/05/2019

0

 

  

Information / Baghdad ..

Oil Minister Thamir al-Ghadhban said on Thursday that Iraq will not change its oil policy and its commitment to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

" Iraq is keen to provide oil supplies to consumer countries and to stabilize the world market, provided that there is a fair price for the producing countries," Al-Ghadhban said in a statement published by the official newspaper "Sabah". on him".

He pointed out that "the oil ministry's commitment to what has been agreed with the members of (OPEC) and outside, at the same time, Iraq has the capacity to increase this large energy, but aware of the importance of stability of the market and remove the surplus of oil, will not resort to change its oil policy and commitment to (OPEC). "

Al-Ghadhban said that " Iraq has no intention to change its production and export policy now, and if there is a need to increase production or export, for any recent incident," noting that "on 19 of this month, will be the convening of the Ministerial Committee to monitor production in Jeddah, OPEC) and beyond the reduction and quantities of crude pumped to global markets.

"From now until the 19th of this month, there will be plenty of time to assess the reactions in the market and will prices continue to increase or stabilize?" Ending / 25

 

https://www.almaalomah.com/2019/05/09/405259/

[yota691]

OPEC turmoil and ambiguity at production level

Editor's note:: • 949 times

(Reuters) - OPEC is facing uncertain prospects for oil supplies in the second half of the year as supply cuts from Iran and Russia are becoming increasingly important, but Saudi Arabia is reluctant to pump more crude because of fears of price collapse, Opec sources said.

The polluted oil forced Russia to halt flows through the Drogba pipeline, a major crude link to eastern Europe and Germany, in April. The shutdown led to the rush of refineries to alternative supplies. It is not clear how long this pause will last. 
According to OPEC sources, Iran's oil exports are likely to see further declines in May as the US tightens its grip on the main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic. Shipments from Venezuela, also under US sanctions, could see further declines in the coming weeks. 
The scarcity of information is a headache for OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, who will meet in June to decide whether to extend the cut-off agreement. A ministerial committee will meet on May 19 in Russia to discuss market conditions and make recommendations.
Opec delegates said the Russian cut, along with a drop in Iran and Venezuela's exports, would be discussed at a meeting of the ministerial committee in the Saudi city of Jeddah and appeared to be larger than a short-term technical malfunction. 
One delegate said stopping the flow of Russian crude in the pipeline, "is likely to be significant." 
He added that the price of Brent crude, which is close to $ 70 a barrel, down from the peak of 2019 in the $ 75.60 recorded last month, indicates that traders do not see the risk posed by the interruptions. 
Other OPEC sources said there were divergent views on how important the Russian cutout was, and the complex system of Russian pipelines meant the matter was unclear. 
"I do not see a clear impact on supply shortages," another FAO delegate said. 
Analysts at Citigroup believe the loss of Russian exports is enough to affect the balance between supply and demand.
"Although it is still difficult to assess the final effects on the balance, the severity of the problem could mean up to 400,000 barrels per day of Russian exports from the market for a longer period than expected," they wrote in a note. 
This will lead to further supply shortages in the market, with OPEC hinting, even before Drogba stopped, that supply will exceed supply by more than 800,000 bpd in the third quarter. 
A further reduction from Russia would mean that OPEC and its allies would exceed the target levels of cuts by a big margin. 
The market follows Iran's exports to see the full extent of the decline this month. So far, China, Iran's biggest oil buyer, has not said whether it will continue to buy despite the US decision to end exemptions that allowed limited Iranian exports.
Opec, Russia and other producers are cutting production by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January 1 to six months under an agreement to halt rising stockpiles and support prices. 
OPEC's share of these cuts is 800,000 bpd, but the actual cut is much higher, due to supply losses from Iran and Venezuela exempted from voluntary cuts under the agreement. 
US President Donald Trump said he had contacted OPEC and Saudi Arabia and told them he wanted to cut oil prices. But Riyadh is reluctant to increase supplies quickly for fear of a collapse in prices. 
A Gulf source familiar with Saudi Arabia's plans said on Wednesday the kingdom had received medium orders for crude from former Iranian customers, although production would remain below its target for the June agreement.
Iraq, another OPEC producer with the ability to increase production in a short period, said on Sunday it would not make a unilateral decision on any increase in production.

[yota691]

Oil prices are on the rise due to supply concerns and concern for economic growth

 

Arab and international Economy News _ Baghdad Oil futures rose on mounting concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East's important crude oil market, as investors and traders worry about prospects for global economic growth as US-China trade talks falter. Brent crude futures were $ 71 a barrel, up 38 cents or 0.5 percent from the previous close. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $ 61.73 a barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, from the previous settlement price. Saudi Arabia said on Monday that two Saudi oil miners were among the ships targeted by "sabotage" off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, and condemned the attacks as an attempt to undermine the security of world oil supplies. Saudi Arabia and the UAE ranked first and third among the largest producers respectively in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to the latest Reuters survey. Markets are supported by Washington's push to cut Iran's oil exports to zero and reduce Venezuela's exports, where infrastructure problems also cause production to fall. The United States and China together account for 34 percent of world oil consumption in the first quarter of 2019, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Views 11   Date Added 13/05/2019