Friday Evening Opinions @ 7:15 PM CST - 1/28/2022

[ronscarpa]

Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... RON 

 

 

*** Kaperoni  ...'they're not going to open the 2022 budget unless they raise the exchange rate.'  Yes, there is talk of this but only returning it to 1170.  Kaperoni is saying the same thing as Firefly on his TV Report posted @3:45 today.

 

 

[ronscarpa]

Even at 1170/USD it is still a first step in the right direction ... RON

[shixjr]

Well Ron, if Kaperoni and Firefly are both saying it AND it is on the internet, it must be true, right? 😂

 

Thank you for all the articles you post.  You keep us informed AND entertained!

[Luigi1]

1170 Don't cut it.

[Luigi1]

1 minute ago, ronscarpa said:

Even at 1170/USD it is still a first step in the right direction ... RON

 

Is this the return to the ''Glory Days' they have been talking about.  I think not.  IMO.

[sooner guy15]

Wouldn’t be much need for lower denominations at that rate!

[ronscarpa]

4 hours ago, Luigi1 said:

1170 Don't cut it.

 

4 hours ago, Luigi1 said:

 

Is this the return to the ''Glory Days' they have been talking about.  I think not.  IMO.

 

3 hours ago, sooner guy15 said:

Wouldn’t be much need for lower denominations at that rate!

 

Guys I agree with you that 1170 doesn't work, especially with the LDs, but as I mentioned - it would be a good "first step" in the right direction; even if they were to float it from there. However, I personally believe they will need to start from somewhere close to a dollar.

 

If they went back to 1170 (.0008547 cents/iqd), then dropped the three zeros from the exchange rate then it would be .8547/iqd or 85 1/2 cents.  I'd be happy with that as a starting point for a float.  I'm just hypothesizing..! RON

Edited January 29, 2022 by ronscarpa

[rvmydinar]

8 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

*** Kaperoni  Yes, there is talk of this but only returning it to 1170.  Kaperoni is saying the same thing as Firefly on his TV Report posted @3:45 today.

Wait a minute. Just wondering, Are Kaperoni and Firefly the same people using a different name as a nick name?

[yendor]

5 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

 

 

 

Guys I agree with you that 1170 doesn't work, especially with the LDs, but as I mentioned - it would be a good "first step" in the right direction; even if they were to float it from there. However, I personally believe they will need to start from somewhere close to a dollar.

 

If they went back to 1170 (.0008547 cents/iqd), then dropped the three zeros from the exchange rate then it would be .8547/iqd or 85 1/2 cents.  I'd be happy with that as a starting point for a float.  I'm just hypothesizing..! RON

 

At 85 1/2  cents, I would probably be outta' here and forego the rest of the float.... But, then, I just  cash 1/10th and have my investment back with a nice "little" profit and wait to see what happens before cashing in the other  9/10th. I would just like to see something, ANYTHING positive happen with my aging DINAR !

[NWGUY]

5 hours ago, yendor said:

 

At 85 1/2  cents, I would probably be outta' here and forego the rest of the float.... But, then, I just  cash 1/10th and have my investment back with a nice "little" profit and wait to see what happens before cashing in the other  9/10th. I would just like to see something, ANYTHING positive happen with my aging DINAR !

 

Once they set the rate, we will have a bunch of options for sure.  In or out, cash some keep some, hold for the big amount.   Can't wait for my options....that will be a very interesting time!  

[Hotcurl]

This may not be the right forum, but I think the topic is relevant and I have a few questions.

 

I have always thought that the 1170ish rate and the 1460ish rate were the "Program" post Saddam rate ?

 

A lot of the recent chatter has implied that the CBI was moving out of the "Program" rate via the UN release, to an "International" - Forex style tradable exchange rate. 

 

The real questions become;

What is accomplished by the rumor of reverting back to the 1170ish rate ? 

What exactly is the definition of "Float" ?

 

Just askin' 

 

Semper Fi

 

RV there yet ? 

 

Thanks Ron for all that you do .............

 

 

 

[Fairways&Greens]

45 minutes ago, Hotcurl said:

What is accomplished by the rumor of reverting back to the 1170ish rate ? If Iraq does go back to 1170 rate, it would not accomplish anything substantive for the people or the economy. It would only make sense if they were planning to launch the “delete the zeros” project from there. 

What exactly is the definition of "Float" ? Float means the currency is able to fluctuate based on open world market trading rather than a fixed program rate that can only be changed by the central bank. 
 

 

See my answers to your questions in bold above.
 

My hope is that once the UN officially releases Iraq from Chapter VII sanctions they will be able to improve the rate of the Dinar to say .10 and let it float” from there or choose to RV at a stronger rate like 1 to 1 or stronger. Either route would require a tradable currency and the project to delete the zeros to issue the smaller denominations. 
 

Based on a lot of the work Iraq has accomplished in 2021 and news coming out of meetings with IMF and Middle East economic summits along with agreements with numerous other countries, one might hope an option like those stated above would be very possible once it is official. The UN has a mtg scheduled for Feb 9th. 🤞🏼

[Hotcurl]

6 hours ago, Fairways&Greens said:

See my answers to your questions in bold above.
 

My hope is that once the UN officially releases Iraq from Chapter VII sanctions they will be able to improve the rate of the Dinar to say .10 and let it float” from there or choose to RV at a stronger rate like 1 to 1 or stronger. Either route would require a tradable currency and the project to delete the zeros to issue the smaller denominations. 
 

Based on a lot of the work Iraq has accomplished in 2021 and news coming out of meetings with IMF and Middle East economic summits along with agreements with numerous other countries, one might hope an option like those stated above would be very possible once it is official. The UN has a mtg scheduled for Feb 9th. 🤞🏼

Thank you for the info and very eloquent reply,

 

So to continue this conversation a bit further ;

Can you elaborate on the timetable, that you think, for the potential "float" going from .10 to a 1 to 1 ? (assuming that the IQD RV's @ .10) ??  ..... Based on current market conditions ?.

 

 Why do you think that the CBI will not come out at $1.00 ++++++, and skip the entire "float" process thus

, just go "International" @ 1 to 1 or higher and thereby establishing a base line for the Forex rate going forward ?

 

What exactly it the economic basis for the .10 initial RV rate (in your opinion)?  

 

Just askin' ........

 

Semper Fi

RV there yet ?

 

 

 

'

[Fairways&Greens]

Hotcurl, good questions. 
 

My personal feeling and opinion is that Iraq will implement the project to delete the zeros and RV at a rate close to 1 to 1 AND let it float from there as an internationally traded currency on forex. The math would look like this:

 

Current rate of 1460 = .00069…drop 3 zeros and you have an effective RV rate of 69 cents

 

At a rate of 1170 = .00085…drop 3 zeros and you have an effective RV rate of 85 cents

 

I believe Iraq wants a strong currency (lower denoms) wherein they do not need to rely on or use the US dollar any longer. An RV that comes out close to a dollar and then floats from there would effectively achieve that goal. Iraq has revealed they have billions in foreign reserve currencies and once the UN gives their blessing they have billions that will be returned to them as well. Could the Dinar RV at $3+? It could, but highly unlikely. That is guru pumper pie in the sky. I DO think it could over time strengthen to rival Kuwaiti Dinar, but only after many months or years of sound monetary policy coupled with economic growth as they diversify beyond oil and gas. 
 

As for timetable??? That is the million dollar question! I’ll go out on a limb and say this first quarter is a big window for CBI to pull the trigger.* Keep an eye out for news about a few things:

 

1.  HCL (profit sharing agreement between Kurds and Baghdad) They seem to be playing nice and agreeing in recent months. 

 

2. Chapter VII. UN making it official (all but a formality) will remove restrictions and allow Iraq to join the international community in trade and activate economic agreements they have been making with other nations. 
 

*Without inclusion in, love and approval of UN, IMF, WTO, etc, the CBI will not move forward. Their plan is known in collaboration with these and other governing agencies. If they are not able to go international, any RV rate would be useless and could blow up in their faces. Their fate is in the hands of world governing bodies. Once the training wheels are off, Iraq controls it’s own destiny and can set the rate that will benefit them best. 
 

All of the above (my opinion) are insights gleaned from following folks like Adam Montana and the like for more than a decade. 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Fairways&Greens
Correct Demons to Denoms

[sooner guy15]

I’ll take .69 or .85 right now!

[Artitech]

5 hours ago, sooner guy15 said:

I’ll take .69 or .85 right now!

I’ll take and be gone so it will make your head swim! Either rate!! Hopefully we will see it this 1st quarter!

[Artitech]

Just now, Artitech said:

I’ll take and be gone so fast it will make your head swim! Either rate!! Hopefully we will see it this 1st quarter!