AMC to the MOON!

[Dinarrock]

2 hours ago, md11fr8dawg said:

So keylime, what's your prediction on how high this squeeze is going to go? Just curious.

Mine is atleast $10,000 but that is presplit so post split 100K!! But there are many here who believe 100K before the split which would take it to 1 million per share! While all this sounds incredible the powers that be no matter what will not let that happen IMO!! Will we squeeze yes it will have to happen either premarket or in the aftermarket where they cannot illegally halt it!

[md11fr8dawg]

I agree, dinarrock, however, if it goes to 10,000 I'm probably gonna take the $$ and run. If you get too greedy and wait for 100,000 or a million(it's nice to dream) knowing the powers that be (the global elite) will not let that happen then you could lose out altogether. Remember Citadel and the other big dogs that are shorting these stock basically know they won't be held accountable for what they do to investors or companies. Just make that $$ Baby!!

[keylime]

12 hours ago, md11fr8dawg said:

So keylime, what's your prediction on how high this squeeze is going to go? Just curious.

This squeeze is wound so tight when it finally explodes and if the explosion triggers MOASS which could very well happen then all bets are off on how high. 100,000 plus could happen very quickly, up over that many times as it bounces by tens of thousands of dollars but will occur over a one to two week period as far as the volatility of the price action. But to the moon and past...As far as halts go, yes it could start in post or pre market but the price action is going to gap up by thousands if not tens of thousands as the algorithm searches for people to sell their shares. It will not be incremental like now where they halt it as it ascends or even descends. This is going to skyrocket, that even if they halt it, at says 12000, when it trades again, the algo is still going to be looking for shares that it won't easily get.  So this will span a week or two and everyone will have a chance to sell at the price they are looking for.

[keylime]

Another good Ants Trade tracking perfectly he says

 

 

[txwWrestling]

If it reaches 10,000 I'm selling all but 10 shares! I've been going back and forth on it, but that's my plan!

[keylime]

Ants Trade

 

 

[keylime]

Ants Trade....

 

[md11fr8dawg]

I cannot say that I disagree with this article. Maybe there is something I am missing. Enlighten me please. I still see all the "gurus" (kind of like the dinar pumpers) the same ones over and over with their prognostications and predictions for AMC and APE and when I see Ole foul mouth Lou still babbling, I wonder are these the guys that we were talking about who make $$ off of each click on their site?? If so, it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they are the ones making $$$ and you have to wonder if indeed they are even invested in these to stocks at all!!

 

AMC Entertainment: The Ape Battle Continues

Jul. 10, 2023 9:00 AM ETAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), APE18 Comments

Juxtaposed Ideas

7.18K Followers

 

Summary

• AMC remains a battleground stock, due to its lack of profitability and overreliance on debt leveraging/share dilution, worsened by the uncertain legal outcome.
• Its business model continues to underperform post-reopening cadence, potentially resulting in insolvency, with common shareholders' equity wiped out.
• On the contrary, the AMC investing story may not end the way many others have imagined, with us preferring to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
• Long-term shareholders who have remained loyal through the plunge are most likely to stay through the next few weeks of volatility anyway.
• There is no point in fighting with the APEs since the stock is no longer trading based on its fundamental performance. Sit back and enjoy the show for now.

 

MaxLiew/iStock via Getty Images

 

The APE Investment Thesis Remains Volatile

We previously covered AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) in June 2022, ending with a Sell rating. The stock had been deemed as uninvestable, since the business was not expected to be profitable through FY2025.

Due to the mounting capital needed to maintain its heavy capex business, the management might continue relying on debt leveraging and share dilution in the meantime.

At that time, we believed that the AMC stock might retrace to its pre-pandemic prices of $4 to $6s, normalizing after the over-hyped momentum in the past two years.

Author Historical Rating On AMC

 

Seeking Alpha

 

True enough, the AMC stock has already retraced by -45.31% since then, compared to the market wide recovery of +17.80%. We also believe there may be more volatility in the near term, thanks to the ongoing court battle with the APEs.

For now, interested investors may refer to previous analysts' articles for an expanded discussion on the ongoing legal development, since we will not be covering those here.

However, one thing is clear. The AMC investing story remains highly improbable, more suitable for short traders with higher risk tolerance.

Anyone hoping for a quick turnaround may be sorely disappointed indeed, since their execution and balance sheet continues to tell the same story: AMC is at high risk of performing badly, with the Seeking Alpha Quant Rating offering a similar warning.

As mentioned by Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Only time may tell.

For now, AMC continues to face immense difficulties, due to the underwhelming box office performance in 2023, while only reporting revenues of $3.68B over the last twelve months (+30.4% sequentially).

This number remains way below the pre-pandemic levels of $5.02B in 2019 (+0.2% YoY), suggesting that consumers have yet to return, thanks to the highly competitive streaming offerings by Netflix (NFLX), Disney (DIS), Paramount (PARA), and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), to name a few.

Further worsening its prospects, AMC's gross margins continue to fall to 8.9% over the LTM, compared to 2019 levels of 16.8%, thanks to the rising inflationary pressure. This may have also translated to its higher SG&A expenses of $300.7M over the LTM, compared to 2019 levels of $234M.

With its operating income remaining negative since the start of the pandemic, it is no wonder that the management has difficulties deleveraging its massive pre-pandemic debts of $4.73B in FQ4'19, with the sum remaining elevated at $4.86B in the latest quarter (-5% QoQ/ -11.6% YoY).

This cadence naturally translates to AMC's elevated annualized interest expenses of $366.4M (+0.9% QoQ/ +10% YoY) by the latest quarter, thanks to the Fed's sustained hike thus far. With Jerome Powell still projecting at least two rate hikes in 2023 with a pivot still a distance away, it is unsurprising that Mr. Market remains uncertain about its prospects in the near to intermediate term.

Perhaps this is why the management has been keen to unlock more capital through stock sales, potentially boosting its dwindling cash/ short-term investments of $495.6M (-21.5% QoQ/ -57.4% YoY).

Then again, with 519.19M of diluted shares outstanding by the latest quarter, compared to FQ4'19 levels of 103.85M, it is unsurprising that the APEs have resisted further dilution. Part of this may also be attributed to AMC's growing Stock-Based Compensation expenses of $41.9M over the LTM (inline sequentially), compared to 2019 levels of $4.4M.

These numbers do not paint a healthy picture indeed.

While only $39.9M of its long-term debts will be due through 2024, it remains to be seen how AMC aims to cover its expense obligations, especially since the $225M revolving credit facility and $1.92B of 2026 term loan are tied to variable interest rates.

It appears that without the additional capital from the share dilution, the company may potentially end up insolvent, with the common shareholders' equity wiped out. While the management may attempt taking on more debt, we suppose the other two options may either be acquisition/ takeover or asset sales.

However, it remains to be seen which deep pocketed company may attempt to do so, due to the uncertain macroeconomic outlook through 2024, if not 2025.

Those attempting a takeover may need to shell out handsome millions for the upgrading of AMC's older portfolios as well, which have been overlooked since the start of the pandemic. For example, the management only guides FY2023 capex of $175M (-20.3% YoY) at the midpoint, compared to FY2019 levels of $529M.

While much efforts have been made to streamline its existing portfolios, with 136 locations already closed since the start of the pandemic, its speculative turnaround to sustainable profitability remains a great distance away, in our opinion.

This cadence may further compress its stock prices, assuming the company's survival in the intermediate term.

So, Is AMC Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMC 5Y Stock Price

 

Trading View

 

On the contrary, the AMC investing story may not end the way many others have imagined. While the court and market sentiments appear to be leaning on the side of the management, we prefer to adopt a wait and see attitude for now.

Long-term shareholders who have remained loyal through the plunge are most likely to stay through the next few weeks of volatility anyway.

Based on the market analysts' average price target of $2.27, the small gap of -$1.93 is nothing, compared to the drastic decline of -$54.04 from the June 2021 top of $58.24 to $4.20 at the time of writing. The latter level also matches the stock's previous support in 2020, as the worst case scenario.

As a result, we prefer to rate AMC as a Hold (Neutral) here, since it remains a battleground stock with massive volatility, thanks to the 23.65% short interest. With it mostly owned by retail investors, there is no point in fighting with the APEs, since the stock is no longer trading based on its fundamental performance. Sit back and enjoy the show for now.

[txwWrestling]

I will say I live on the outskirts of Knoxville (third largest city in Tennessee). The past month they closed BOTH AMC theaters. Now the closest one is about an hour away in another county. So sad. 

[keylime]

ants trade

 

 

[keylime]

Ant's Trade

 

 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

WOW

I'm shocked that the after hours events with AMC today haven't been noticed yet. 

Apparently AMC went from just over $4 dollars to $8 dollars IMMEDIATELY after closing. And is @7.5 dollars now. 

 

So what's the deal?

[Gypsygirl11]

Yeah it's definitely moved after hours. Next week should be very interesting! I would love to see $1,000!!!! I hope GME moves also.

[md11fr8dawg]

Damn, now we have to wait until Monday to find out if this thing has any teeth or if is just a head fake.

[CSM (R) Thack]

2 hours ago, MyLadiesDaddy said:

WOW

I'm shocked that the after hours events with AMC today haven't been noticed yet. 

Apparently AMC went from just over $4 dollars to $8 dollars IMMEDIATELY after closing. And is @7.5 dollars now. 

 

So what's the deal?

The APE Conversion verdict!!! 

[keylime]

On 7/21/2023 at 7:51 PM, CSM (R) Thack said:

The APE Conversion verdict!!! 

 

[txwWrestling]

Quick question to everyone, so is this suppose to be a gradual deal or a straight shot up?

[Dinarrock]

4 hours ago, txwWrestling said:

Quick question to everyone, so is this suppose to be a gradual deal or a straight shot up?

It should go straight up pretty fast with a lot of halts, don’t worry you will not miss it!

[md11fr8dawg]

1 hour ago, Dinarrock said:

It should go straight up pretty fast with a lot of halts, don’t worry you will not miss it!

Well when they are ready to lite that Roman Candle, just let me know. I am more than ready to pad my retirement Roth at the expense of the hedge funds and short sellers!!

[keylime]

The share price will go up in large gaps. Not like it does now. It could go from 10 to 80 to 200 in no time because the algo is going to be looking for sales. If no one is selling, or even if some are, there are millions of fake shares out there that have to be closed out and the only way to close them out is for someone to sell. So the price is going to jump like crazy and it won't matter if it halts because after the halt no one will still be selling and away it goes again. And this thing could take a week or so to play out as far as closing out goes, so we will have a hootin-nanny of a good time watching it Scream up.

 

If you watched the latest Ant's Trade I posted he is pointing to August 1st as our roman candle day. And he explains why. Today he was live and the price action staying above 5 confirmed we are in the beginning of the squeeze. It's going to get volatile through the week probably and Monday I hope is our day to really watch the AMC fireworks.

Gotta go get some of that AMC popcorn from Walmart.

[keylime]

Ants Trade

 

 

[md11fr8dawg]

Yep FALSE ALARM on the squeeze, price back down to under $5. Just a tease to get everyone excited. And NO I don't think the rocket will launch on 8/1 like that "expert" predicted!!!

[keylime]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:28 AM, md11fr8dawg said:

Yep FALSE ALARM on the squeeze, price back down to under $5. Just a tease to get everyone excited. And NO I don't think the rocket will launch on 8/1 like that "expert" predicted!!!

Maybe. But maybe we will next week.

 

 

[md11fr8dawg]

Don't get me wrong keylime, I'm ready and I do believe it will but just like the dinar when? And please "SOON"!!!

[keylime]

2 hours ago, md11fr8dawg said:

Don't get me wrong keylime, I'm ready and I do believe it will but just like the dinar when? And please "SOON"!!!

Just like the dinar. Who knows? But soon has my vote. And I don't mean Iraqi soon.