NO RV soon?

[krucialmix]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5M barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

[truckerron49]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5 barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

I ddon't tink you will see oil at 150 a barrel for one thing. And if Irag is only putting out 2. 5 barrels a day, why bother. I can get that down at the oil change joint. And no this guys intel isn't any better than we have and probably isn't as good. Stop going where the info is negative. Stay focused... If you can't wait, just send me a message and I will buy what you have, and If I can't handle it all, then there are others here that will jump in also. Count on it........Thanks.....

[keepmwlknfny]

I ddon't tink you will see oil at 150 a barrel for one thing. And if Irag is only putting out 2. 5 barrels a day, why bother. I can get that down at the oil change joint. And no this guys intel isn't any better than we have and probably isn't as good. Stop going where the info is negative. Stay focused... If you can't wait, just send me a message and I will buy what you have, and If I can't handle it all, then there are others here that will jump in also. Count on it........Thanks.....

Why is that info considered being negative?? How come whenever anyone says something that everyone doesnt wanna hear its being negative?? This guy is probly well informed on economic situations and is using sound judgement on what HE THINKS is going to happen. He isent bashing us saying the dinar is crap and it was a dumb idea....he is just taking a different approach to making an opinion on when he thinks it will happen....ive never heard of this guy...i thought dr. dinar was the Jack DeAngelis guy that we have been seeing on youtube and other posts....oh well....but besides that yea seeing oil at $150 a barrel is pretty dang high....i would think that if there is more oil being produced it would bring down the price of oil per barrel....unless we are talking YEARS down the road when it starts to get scarce but i dont see it getting that high for a long time!! As far as the numbers of barrels being produced I can see that....but i would think by the time Iraq is producing 5 million barrels per day we would be years down the road and looking at a rate around 3.00....I think it will RV sometime this year...not as soon as many people are thinking but give the govt a little time to get situated and we might see a little action.....this guy could just simply be looking at economical factors that would support a RV and nothing else....but hey everyone has an opinion right??

[Cherysh]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5M barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

IMO, I think it is a more desperate situation for the people of Iraq, they need to start getting simple resources like water, food, housing, jobs. I think I understand it correctly that Iraq is really advancing well in a lot of areas, agriculture is one. So all in all, I am going to disagree. Oil will be a HUGE base for them once the development happens. But I don't think a RV is going to be based on oil right now. They have to many countries to make happy that have a lot vested with Iraq so far. Just my opinion. Hope everyone is doing well, hang in there. )

[muydinar]

That has nothing to do with potential RV. Those two factors are relavent, but will not determine RV or no RV. The GOI stabilizing is the largest hurdle to overcome.

[mrref]

I do know that Dr. Dinar (Darren ) is close personal friends of Adam's and they work close together, in fact he and Adam did a conference call a few months back. They respect each others opinion.

[tommy17]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5M barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

Iraq will not produce 5million barrrels until their currency is worth something all the oil companies that were awarded contracts stopped work. China told Iraq they will not start production till they'reon the international market with a viable currency. Iraq is sending oil to jordan on the black market to keep the gov going. I do agree when we see the price of oil going up the chance for a R.V increases. But 150 dollars a barrell sounds really high, but who knows this is Iraq and nothing makes sense with these people.

[bulldawg]

Iraq will not produce 5million barrrels until their currency is worth something all the oil companies that were awarded contracts stopped work. China told Iraq they will not start production till they'reon the international market with a viable currency. Iraq is sending oil to jordan on the black market to keep the gov going. I do agree when we see the price of oil going up the chance for a R.V increases. But 150 dollars a barrell sounds really high, but who knows this is Iraq and nothing makes sense with these people.

Check the oil prices in the summer of '08.............$147 BBL! We will be there again and soon. Just look at the "circular firing squad" sown in the gulf.

[JKET955]

Does anyone know where to go and look for this information on how much they are producing and how much per barrel they are getting at this time?

[deenar]

lol! So I assume dr dinar thinks the 2010 budget won't kick in until what 2012?

[DoD]

When the dictator of Iran speaks something against Israel or America the oil prices go up.

I didn't hear the conference call last night but for the newbies Darren has been into the Dinar for years. He an I chatted a couple a years ago about doing a story on the local folks in Mosul.

It's been awhile since I've had contact with him but his opinion is as valid or speculative as any you can read on these forums.

[gr8cooker142]

I ddon't tink you will see oil at 150 a barrel for one thing. And if Irag is only putting out 2. 5 barrels a day, why bother. I can get that down at the oil change joint. And no this guys intel isn't any better than we have and probably isn't as good. Stop going where the info is negative. Stay focused... If you can't wait, just send me a message and I will buy what you have, and If I can't handle it all, then there are others here that will jump in also. Count on it........Thanks.....

It was 2.5m BPD what oil change store can you get that at?

[Den56]

I have been on Darren's calls before. He is a really nice guy and I enjoy his calls. However, IMO he does not have the contacts that Adam and Sonny1 have. Just praying that Sonny1's intel on July 26th, or sooner, pans out.

Dennis

[Squaredaway]

Why should it matter how much oil is produced each day or that the price has to be at $150.00 before Iraq RV's????

The latest documented figures I could find indicate that Kuwait produces 2.6 million bpd (# 11 in the world) and their exchange rate is $3.43 / 1 Kuwaiti Dinar.

The same documented sources indicate that Iraq produces 2.1 million bpd (# 16 in the world) even with all the problems they have had since 1991! They are only now resuming and beginning drilling on a larger scale that will bring them up in the ratings of oil production in the world - probably as one of the top 5 oil producers in the world. They are purported to have the 3rd or maybe even the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world!!!! Bong!!!

If you compare Iraq's position in the world in oil production, which could rival that of Saudi Arabia!! - the $3.22 exchange rate seems relatively low.

I would think that if they want to hit the ground running to be able to start rebuilding their country - even before Chapter 7 is lifted - they would want to at least have parity with the surrounding Gulf oil producing community and come out as soon as possible with the $3.22 RV rate (or even higher, now) that was approved in their 2010 budget.

Edited June 18, 2010 by Squaredaway

[Kimjackie]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5M barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

I agree, they did say oil would be $150 a barrel by the year 2014. Geez

[mythunter]

Why should it matter how much oil is produced each day or that the price has to be at $150.00 before Iraq RV's????

The latest documented figures I could find indicate that Kuwait produces 2.6 million bpd (# 11 in the world) and their exchange rate is $3.43 / 1 Kuwaiti Dinar.

The same documented sources indicate that Iraq produces 2.1 million bpd (# 16 in the world) even with all the problems they have had since 1991! They are only now resuming and beginning drilling on a larger scale that will bring them up in the ratings of oil production in the world - probably as one of the top 5 oil producers in the world. They are purported to have the 3rd or maybe even the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world!!!! Bong!!!

If you compare Iraq's position in the world in oil production, which could rival that of Saudi Arabia!! - the $3.22 exchange rate seems relatively low.

I would think that if they want to hit the ground running to be able to start rebuilding their country - even before Chapter 7 is lifted - they would want to at least have parity with the surrounding Gulf oil producing community and come out as soon as possible with the $3.22 RV rate (or even higher, now) that was approved in their 2010 budget.

I don't mean to throw a wrench into your post but have you ever looked at the exchange rate between Saudi Arabia and the United States?

1 Saudi Riyal=0.0267 USD. Kind of interesting........

[drox]

Revaluation has little to do with oil sales or production IMO. What matters is the fact that Iraq has a lot of oil and it is their primary asset. The asset of oil makes this particular currency attractive to other nations. They will want to hold onto Dinar in their federal reserve accounts (to support their own currency) once it becomes internationally recognized. Kind of like using it to diversify their other reserve currencies that have strength in other areas. When those countries hold the Dinar in reserve, it subsequently lessens Iraq's obligation to cash everyone out at one time. That is what is so hard for us to grasp. The cashing out process is distributed across the global currency market. Who cares if oil hits $150 a barrel? He misses the point that Iraq doesn't actually cash all the Dinar out. It is spread by other nations and investors. Those nations aren't interested now because it isn't presently recognized internationally and is simply too speculative. They are focused on the trade investment pieces instead.

Again... just my opinion

[oilman80]

It's silly. If oil does hit $150, which it may, it will only be for a short period...no longer than a month. The point is, if oil does hit that mark it is irrelevant as its temporary, vs an RV which is relatively long term. When oil spikes, its nice for investors and oil producers, as for that short period you get a larger return....for that short period. Big deal. Long term changes (such as steady oil production) will have more of an affect than short term spikes. (and no one really believes oil will hit $150 within the next two years, not even old T Boone.)

[Doc31]

Why should it matter how much oil is produced each day or that the price has to be at $150.00 before Iraq RV's????

The latest documented figures I could find indicate that Kuwait produces 2.6 million bpd (# 11 in the world) and their exchange rate is $3.43 / 1 Kuwaiti Dinar.

The same documented sources indicate that Iraq produces 2.1 million bpd (# 16 in the world) even with all the problems they have had since 1991! They are only now resuming and beginning drilling on a larger scale that will bring them up in the ratings of oil production in the world - probably as one of the top 5 oil producers in the world. They are purported to have the 3rd or maybe even the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world!!!! Bong!!!

If you compare Iraq's position in the world in oil production, which could rival that of Saudi Arabia!! - the $3.22 exchange rate seems relatively low.

I would think that if they want to hit the ground running to be able to start rebuilding their country - even before Chapter 7 is lifted - they would want to at least have parity with the surrounding Gulf oil producing community and come out as soon as possible with the $3.22 RV rate (or even higher, now) that was approved in their 2010 budget.

The price of oil DOES matter and the reason is that it is their "bread and butter". I like you do not believe that it must hit $150 but obviously the higher the better for a non-OPEC compliant nation. Remember, that a great many of their deals are based on $74/barrel ... they even bragged about it while oil was at $65!

Nor do I believe that 5m bpd is necessary ... it would put them in the heirarchy of producers, indeed, I believe that it would also put them in the cross hairs of OPEC ... yes I know that they are aiming for 11-12M bpd but that is 5-7 years out and OPEC believes that they can convince them to join in time.

Now, "parity with the surrounding Gulf oil producing community" is a little tougher ... the GCC is the gulf currency that these folks are arguing over and they cannot get it together. The problem is that a quick look at the disparity between high and low (Kuwait at $3.44 and Saudia Arabia at $.267) is deceptive. While it appears to be a chasm it really is not. The KWD is based on the dollar and is more than 3.44X more valuable. The SAR is based apparently on the dime and is 2.67X more valuable ... extrapolated out $2.67. The Saudi's are the largest oil producers in the world and as you pointed out Kuwait is 11th ... yet there is a 22% difference in how their currencies match up. Go figure, right?

I always ask myself ... where is the Goldilocks level ... you know ... not too high and not too low ... just right.

Now you be the judge ... what is the Goldilocks level?

Oh, and nice post ... good job for a relative newbie!

Peace

Doc31

I don't mean to throw a wrench into your post but have you ever looked at the exchange rate between Saudi Arabia and the United States?

1 Saudi Riyal=0.0267 USD. Kind of interesting........

You missed a decimal point ... it's $.267 ... see the post above for an explanation

Peace

Doc 31

I know the relationship of the SAR to the dime seems strange but consider that the Japanese Yen is set against our penny! Oh, yeah ... that's why it's 90.80

Peace

Doc31

Edited June 18, 2010 by Doc31

[Squaredaway]

I don't mean to throw a wrench into your post but have you ever looked at the exchange rate between Saudi Arabia and the United States?

1 Saudi Riyal=0.0267 USD. Kind of interesting........

I compared the oil production between Iraq (2.1 bpd) to that of Kuwait (2.6 bpd) to illustrate how the volumes are not that far apart.

I then showed the Kuwait exchange rate ($3.43 / 1 dinar) to show the disparity in exchange rates that exists between the two countries ($.000855798 / Iraqi dinar). Here's where I found the exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?Amount=1&From=IQD&To=USD&image.x=54&image.y=16

The Iraqi RV is supposed to be at a rate of $3.22 / 1 dinar - and possibly more. Here's where I found the exchange rate for Kuwait - http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/KWD/graph120.html

(The exchange rate for the Saudi riyal is .267 - not .0267 - but I understand there's a different way that's used to calculate the exchange rate for the Saudi riyal putting it in the 2.60+ range).

Based on the aggressive initiative Iraq has taken to resurrect the oil producing capability they used to have - while in the midst of so much insurgency, sabotage and terrorism that the Iraqi people, their military and our guys are experiencing to keep Iraq on an even keel, I feel that they will eventually rival Saudi Arabia's production rate - not knowing how soon they'll get to that point, but I'm confident that they'll do it.

The point I'm trying to make is that there is nothing but positive things being put in place by Iraq to RV the dinar - now! Now is better than later. They've waited long enough. It looks to me as though all the rats, by now, should have gotten as much cheese as they could possibly justify carrying, while remaining invisible to the rest of the world. So now we "taxable" kiddies should be allowed to start cashing in.

So, Iraq, please carry on and RV, now - putting a little hustle in your walk as you talk.

We need da money!!

[homeless]

Squaredaway, you're one of the few here that understand, its not going to happen anytime soon. Think about it, average Iraq's millionaires over night, NOT. So much has to improve in Iraq before you make Iraq's people millionaires. Open sewers, not enough electricity, not enough infrastructure, security, people on this site have not seen Iraq and dont have a clue. International issues have to be resolved, dinar value has to be stronger, maybe before joining this site, people should be required to have min macro and micro economics, and a good dose of foreign exchange experience. Otherwise, ignore their bs. Keep your dinars, get more, as I do all the time, and consider it a long term investment. I've held mine now for 5+ years and dont expect to cash in for a few more years. Groovegal spells it out, certain conditions have to happen and then the rv will happen. Later

[camerascott]

Squaredaway, you're one of the few here that understand, its not going to happen anytime soon. Think about it, average Iraq's millionaires over night, NOT. So much has to improve in Iraq before you make Iraq's people millionaires. Open sewers, not enough electricity, not enough infrastructure, security, people on this site have not seen Iraq and dont have a clue. International issues have to be resolved, dinar value has to be stronger, maybe before joining this site, people should be required to have min macro and micro economics, and a good dose of foreign exchange experience. Otherwise, ignore their bs. Keep your dinars, get more, as I do all the time, and consider it a long term investment. I've held mine now for 5+ years and dont expect to cash in for a few more years. Groovegal spells it out, certain conditions have to happen and then the rv will happen. Later

homeless you are seriously never postive. and i for one have been to iraq my friend. i fought the insurgents back in 2005 for over a year and i know there are others on this site on her as well that have done the same. so stop making comments when you have no idea what the hell you are talking about. does iraq need a lot of improvemnt..they sure do but how can the get electricity, seweres,and rest of infrastructure without paying people to do it. who wants to bulid that crap for shitty money with no value. is it gonna revalue overnight...no but very sonn. now they are being entered into the stock exchange which means their money will be recognized internationally. with the un enforcing them to have a gov in place by 30 days is another great sign. start reading and put your facts together first.

[brookie]

So I went into a chat tonight on another site with some guy many had, but I hadn't, heard of named "Dr. Dinar" or Darren Chabluk. This guy seemed to be quite grounded and informed but it's his theory that the dinar will NOT RV until two things happen.

1. Oil reaches $150/barrel

2. Iraq is producing 5 million bpd

I think oil is currently at about $80 and Iraq is putting out 2.5M barrels per day.

That seems to me they would have to double BOTH of those things and that doesn't seem like it will happen anytime soon. All these guru predictions of next week, next month, etc. that keep us excited just thrown out the window.

What do you guys think? Who is this guy, and is his opinion any more valuable as intel from Sonny, Medic, Adam, or anyone else for that matter?

I really don't want to wait another year or two for this RV.

I think that crap came to that dude in a dream.When he woke up he should have forgot it instead of writting it down for the rest of us to hate.

Yep I hate it!

[krucialmix]

Squaredaway, you're one of the few here that understand, its not going to happen anytime soon. Think about it, average Iraq's millionaires over night, NOT. So much has to improve in Iraq before you make Iraq's people millionaires. Open sewers, not enough electricity, not enough infrastructure, security, people on this site have not seen Iraq and dont have a clue. International issues have to be resolved, dinar value has to be stronger, maybe before joining this site, people should be required to have min macro and micro economics, and a good dose of foreign exchange experience. Otherwise, ignore their bs. Keep your dinars, get more, as I do all the time, and consider it a long term investment. I've held mine now for 5+ years and dont expect to cash in for a few more years. Groovegal spells it out, certain conditions have to happen and then the rv will happen. Later

Hey Homeless, how will Iraqi's become millionaires overnight when it RV's?

It would seem to me, even if your average Iraqi has let's say 5million dinars shoved in their mattress, once an RV happens prices will be adjusted along with it. Remember all those rumors months ago about salaries being adjusted and stores changing prices? That will happen so to the average Iraqi they won't become instant millionaires in the way you are thinking. If that was the case every country that had a currency higher valued to USD would have people coming over here trying to cash in daily.

We are the real beneficiaries of this. Grant it, it will help Iraq and their people in many ways having stronger currency, but I don't think it works that way. Afterall, if that same average Iraqi has 5 million dinar in his mattress, isn't he already a millionaire x5?

If I'm wrong on this, I'm willing to learn!

[alice]

Good heavens... I hardly think the man is slow! Just because he has an unpopular opinion does not make him a dimwhit.....I disagree with him as well, but he does present plausible thinking..its all food for thought.....thanks for the post..I hope it's wrong! God bless.

Alice