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Half of voters would be 'embarrassed' if Trump became president, poll finds


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About a quarter of people surveyed said they would be ‘proud’ if Trump became president, and both leading Democrats would beat him in election, poll found

 

 

Lauren Gambino in New York

 

Tuesday 22 December 2015 15.47 GMT

 

 

 

Half of US voters said they would be “embarrassed” if Republican frontrunner Donald Trump was elected president while just under a quarter said they would be “proud” to have the billionaire real-estate mogul as their commander-in-chief, according to a Quinnipiac poll released on Tuesday.

 

The divisive candidate, who has upended the race for the White House with his flagrant disregard for the norms of party politics, has continued to hold a commanding national lead over the field of Republican presidential contenders with 28% support just six weeks before the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses, Quinnipiac University National found.

 

The poll also showed a divide in those who say they would be “embarrassed” by a Trump presidency along lines of gender, age and political ideology. Six in 10 female voters said they would be “embarrassed” to have the billionaire as their president compared to four in 10 male ones.

 

Among 18- to 34-year-old voters, 73% said they would be “embarrassed” by Trump president compared with 13% who said they would be “proud”.

 

Meanwhile, 47% of independents said they would be “embarrassed” by Trump compared to 44% Republicans said they would be “proud” of him.

 

By comparison, 35% of voters said they would be “embarrassed” if Hillar-y Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, was elected president, compared to 33% of voters who said they would be “proud”.

 

In the race for the GOP nomination, the poll also showed Texas senator Ted Cruz closing in on Trump’s lead, with 24% support – his highest in any national survey yet. The candidate is rising with the help of conservative Christian voters who have begun to coalesce around the crusading senator.

 

The poll also found that both leading Democrats would beat Trump in a hypothetical match-up, were a national election to be held today. Clinton would best Trump by seven points. And Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who is trailing Clinton in the Democratic primary, would defeat Trump by 13 points.

 

In the race for the Republican nomination, Texas senator Ted Cruz is closing in on Trump with 24% support – his highest national poll yet, according to the survey. Recent polls have showed the party firebrand surging in Iowa as conservative Christian leaders have begun to coalesce around him.

 

“Half of American voters say they’d be embarrassed to have Donald Trump as their commander-in-chief and most Americans think he doesn’t have a good chance in November, but there he is still at the top of the Republican heap,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll in a statement.

 

“Hillar-y Clinton tops him. Senator Bernie Sanders hammers him and Senator Ted Cruz is snapping at his heels. Can a candidate that half the American electorate thinks is an embarrassment win in November?”

 

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted between 16 and 20 December and has a margin of error for all registered voters of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

 

 

1716.jpg?w=700&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10
Majority of people who said they would be ‘embarrassed’ if Trump became president were women and young people, Quinnipiac poll found.
Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images
 
 
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When examining the 'Poll' data from the link provided it is prefaced with "... all voters".  That is the qualifier - "all voters" who participated in the poll.  The statement that half of  the American voters is an opinion pushed by Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University  poll.

 

"Half of American voters say they'd be embarrassed to have Donald Trump as their Commander in Chief and most Americans think he doesn't have a good chance in November, but there he is still at the top of the Republican heap," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

 

Doesn't sound objective to me.

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Actually, it's ALMOST right.

 

If Trump made it, at least 51% of voters would be embarrassed, embarrassed the other 49% were so flipping STUPID they let crap articles like this post influence their decisions.

 

We would be embarrassed to have to call the other 49% "Americans", even though they voted for a lying, cheating, elitist pig,

 

But then, that other 49% have been an embarrassment to real Americans for decades.

 

We have put up with their hypocrisy, prejudice, bigotry, and pea-brained socialist decay, hoping they would finally pull their ignorant heads out of their nasty azzez.

 

So, it was close, but that's OK, becauase we are used to the lefties twisting truth, and desperately trying to sell their BS as fact.

 

Ya know, LOT of elitist snobs would be humiliated.

 

Unfortunately, those pride-less jackals have no honor, and would probably stay in America, instead of moving to whatever shithole commie nation that would take them..DM

 

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Divemaster... you are really a throwback and I mean that as a compliment.  You are sounding more and more like my grandfather born on a farm in Nebraska 1896.  He always wanted to be a rancher and finally pulled it off by the time he was 50.  I spent a lot of summers working the ranch with him - he still used mules and draft horses to mow and cut hay in the fifties and sixties - he never cussed the animals but I heard plenty of blue words and epitaphs thrown at politicians and the government.  I didn't really understand his anger/frustration at that time but I sure do now. He once told me that Daisey, his favorite mule, had more sense than Truman and Kennedy combined.  

 

I can't argue about that now.

 

Keep up the smelting, you're part of the steel that keeps this country together. :salute:  

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Divemaster... you are really a throwback and I mean that as a compliment.  You are sounding more and more like my grandfather born on a farm in Nebraska 1896.  He always wanted to be a rancher and finally pulled it off by the time he was 50.  I spent a lot of summers working the ranch with him - he still used mules and draft horses to mow and cut hay in the fifties and sixties - he never cussed the animals but I heard plenty of blue words and epitaphs thrown at politicians and the government.  I didn't really understand his anger/frustration at that time but I sure do now. He once told me that Daisey, his favorite mule, had more sense than Truman and Kennedy combined.  

 

Understanding what he meant to you, that's one of the greatest compliments I have ever received, thank you.

Sounds like we both have a similar memory.

I helped grandpa fix stuff around the house, but he didn't speak English very well.

Seeing as he had to escape through Russia, then Poland, hide from the Nazis, then Commies, as his home was invaded, family and friends murdered, then sneak into America, only to have the feds seize his money after he built a successful business, for no other reason than he was born in Russia, I'm pretty sure I know what he would have said had we been able to converse.

We learned to communicate without words.

He died at 81, when I was 12. Maybe he's what influenced me to spend my life building.

I've looked up at heaven thousands of times since then, and wondered if he was watching.

 

Maybe they're both looking down and smiling.

Perhaps, next year be the beginning of the globalist take down.

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Like I am not embarassed of our President now  :shrug:

Yeah, like what we have right now shows himself to be a shinning example of Truth, Virtue and Protector of the Nation's Constitution, It's Laws and People. He loathes and despises the USA - hence his megalomaniac desire to " Fundamentally Transform America. "

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December 25, 2015

Polls may actually underestimate Trump’s support, study finds

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Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests.

 

The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and media company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.

 

The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

 

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are “less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm’s polling director, Kyle Dropp.

 

With Trump dominating political debates in both parties, gauging his level of support has become a crucial puzzle. The Morning Consult study provides one piece of the solution, although many other uncertainties remain.

Among the complicating factors is this: The gap between online and telephone surveys has narrowed significantly in surveys taken in the last few weeks. That could suggest that Republicans who were reluctant to admit to backing Trump in the past have become more willing to do so recently.

 
 

Another issue is that not only can polls change over time, but Trump’s support in pre-election surveys might not fully translate into actual votes. He has not invested as heavily as some of his GOP rivals in building the kind of get-out-the-vote operation that candidates typically rely on, particularly in early voting states.

Some of the polls that show heavy support for Trump have also shown him doing better among self-identified independents who lean Republican than among regular GOP voters. At least some of those independents may not be in the habit of voting in primaries and caucuses, which could make a robust turnout operation even more necessary.

On the other hand, a candidate of Trump’s level of celebrity may simply not need much of a get-out-the-vote operation. No one really knows.

Another complication is that most polls made public this year have been of people nationwide, not of voters in the states that actually hold the first primaries. In Iowa, which will kick off the election season with party caucuses on Feb. 1, Trump has slipped into second place, trailing Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the majority of recent polls.

 
 

In New Hampshire, which holds the first primary, on Feb. 9, Trump leads, but less dramatically than in national polls. In recent weeks, he has averaged a bit more than one-quarter of the vote there.

Still, the Morning Consult experiment sheds considerable light on an issue that has puzzled pollsters for months.

The firm polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month, randomly assigning them to one of three different methods — a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.

By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, the researchers hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.

The experiment confirmed that “voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they’re taking the poll online then when they’re talking to a live interviewer,” said Dropp.

The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump’s support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.

 
 

The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias — the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.

Blue-collar voters don’t feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.

In a public setting such as the Iowa caucuses, where people identify their candidate preference in front of friends and neighbors, that same social-desirability bias may hold sway.

But in most primaries, where voters cast a secret ballot, the study’s finding suggests that anonymous online surveys — the ones that typically show Trump with a larger lead — provide the more accurate measure of his backing.

“It’s our sense that a lot of polls are under-reporting Trump’s overall support,” Dropp said.

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