I'm writing my thesis on the RATE it will RV at...

[desert surfer]

I think it needs to come in strong enough that when the US pulls its troops out at he end of the year, they will need to be financially strong enough to not only stand on their own, but pay and equip their forces that may very well need to defend themselves against Iran. Therefore I would like to believe that it would come in at least around $2.34 +. If it comes in at around .50c our church would be paid off. (Some people have tithed early to the church.) That would be such a great blessing.

Have a blessed day.

[THINK.....]

Adam, at the risk of being neg'd by some people who don't totally understand due diligence, I have to ask why you would decide to write a thesis about the rate and date in the eleventh hour. If you believe what you have been saying about an R/V by Thanksgiving, why write a thesis now. To much time on your hands? Not from the way you've cut chats short. Giving everyone something to read while they wait these last days before Thanksgiving? Unlikely.

For anyone who doesn't understand due diligence, it requires that you question everything and everyone in a search for the reality of a situation, or the true state of affairs. So before you neg me, know that I'm only questioning Adams timing on this. It just seems a bit odd to me. When something seems out of place, I can't help but question it.

[skitealwedrop]

Adam, at the risk of being neg'd by some people who don't totally understand due diligence, I have to ask why you would decide to write a thesis about the rate and date in the eleventh hour. If you believe what you have been saying about an R/V by Thanksgiving, why write a thesis now. To much time on your hands? Not from the way you've cut chats short. Giving everyone something to read while they wait these last days before Thanksgiving? Unlikely.

For anyone who doesn't understand due diligence, it requires that you question everything and everyone in a search for the reality of a situation, or the true state of affairs. So before you neg me, know that I'm only questioning Adams timing on this. It just seems a bit odd to me. When something seems out of place, I can't help but question it.

Well said Think. Though, I would like to read Adam's thesis, at the end of the day it will not change reality and what is going behind the scenes in Iraq that WE have no knowledge of. Believe me, there is much more to the potential IQD RV story than we will ever know.

Bye the way I gave you a +1 Dude. Thanks for being real.

Ski

[srdedeaux]

The Rate should be based on the IRAQI economy; and what it's value is at that time. Since IRAQ is still under sanctions of Chapter 7 we wount know what it will be until it's out from those sanctions. Then and only then could we speculate what the value of there economy is. Or what the RV RATE..........! Presently it is only an exercise in futility...............!

[magawatt]

I also think Iraq wants to wash the dollars out of use; but 1:1 won't do that because even factoring national pride, the Iraqi distrust of the GOI looms larger and it will take at least 1.5 IQD to supplant the USD. I believe there will be strong internal pressure to push the IQD up to the "old" rate of $3.22 over the next two years if IFM policy allows that rapid a growth.

[fuzzy77]

Adam, at the risk of being neg'd by some people who don't totally understand due diligence, I have to ask why you would decide to write a thesis about the rate and date in the eleventh hour. If you believe what you have been saying about an R/V by Thanksgiving, why write a thesis now. To much time on your hands? Not from the way you've cut chats short. Giving everyone something to read while they wait these last days before Thanksgiving? Unlikely.

For anyone who doesn't understand due diligence, it requires that you question everything and everyone in a search for the reality of a situation, or the true state of affairs. So before you neg me, know that I'm only questioning Adams timing on this. It just seems a bit odd to me. When something seems out of place, I can't help but question it.

Good question, but he probably is simply at the thesis stage of his degree. Plus, with all of his research over time he can probabaly do very well on his grade. So, I would say his timing has more to do with his school and not the RV date. Just my thoughts...cheers:D

[Cosmo]

Adam, I believe the rate will be coming out at 1.12 only because that would bring an early stability to their financial system in the first year of being a sovereign country again. I see further currency growth in relatively short time to 2.44, and finally flattening out at 3.66 after about three years. This final rate would bring them close to what they used to have prior to Saddam and equalize them with most of their Arabic neighbors.

[IchDien]

I say between 1 penny and $20, jk. Shabibi said he could reasonably afford to set it at $12, wouldn't that be nice! Unlikely. I have no idea what, or if this will RV or RI, but I'm MUCH more interested in knowing WHEN! Whatever the RV is fine with me, I'll be happy (afterall, how much money does one really need anyways?). I want to know WHEN, not how much.

[eddiemac]

Adam, I had hoped for 1 to 1, my fear now is too much currency out there, I cannot see Iraq answering the call. The dime or a little better, that you suggest makes me wonder about Iraq being taking seriously or being bought up like penny candy, Oh man do you remember penny candy? That was a great time, anyway I really look forward to your input, cuz it's evident I don't know much about the In's and outs of this whole thing. Also I have never trusted a stranger, ( unless they had penny candy... Ha!) But for some reason I do trust your opinion, Thanks for all you do..................

[D & B]

I believe the rate will be 2.22 and the date will be 11-11-11 (get it 1+1=2) GO RV!!!!!!!!

welcome Winterset.... Anywhere the Rosemount Bridge?

[Adam Montana]

I think it HAS to at least be something above 1:1 or noone would give up USD for it. Also, just curious - are you writing a thesis for an advanced degree? If so, what degree?

Ha! No, not for a degree - I'm writing it so people will stop harassing me to predict a rate

[jas428]

Ha! No, not for a degree - I'm writing it so people will stop harassing me to predict a rate

I, For one, would much rather hear your thesis on a date than a rate. Don't get me wrong - I'm certainly looking forward to your thesis on the rate but I, too, question whether you've changed your opinion on the 'date' because you're writing this within weeks of Thanksgiving??

[Francie26]

I had also thought it was for an advanced degree, and I had decided to offer be one of your early readers and to edit it for you. Whew!!! Saved by the right question asked at the right time!! (I've done this a number of times throughout my career, and it's a huge amount of work (requires many intense hours] to edit an advanced degree paper such as this would have been). But as luck would have it, this arcane work is something I'm quite good at doing.

Oh, the amazing skills of this many wonderful people!! I wonder how far they range. So let's do this. If you have an unusual talent or a special skill, let's list them here. http://iqd.me/l/yr It will be fun to see how many special talents we have.

[Darin]

Ha! No, not for a degree - I'm writing it so people will stop harassing me to predict a rate

So many X-factors, that it'll be interesting to see your conclusion.

You have to consider what is in circulation, what is in banks, and what they're on the hook for liability wise.

Than, you have to consider GDP, GDP growth, population, and their trade (deficit or surplus).

If you use previous successful models, (i.e., 1988) you need to account for inflation.

We also have to consider, will they be amending their monetary policies... or will they remain the same (this is likely the bigget x-factor).

They can either do the simple quick band-aid now, or plan for the future.

They have to look at oil output estimations for the future.

Deals maybe being made to get their minerals out of the ground.

We can look at neighboring countries & their rates. Close the gap?

The rate has to be supported.... And would likely be higher if it was traded internationally (w/ reserve currency aspirations)

U.S. troop presence likely helped boost their local economy to a degree. Will they account for that negative reaction it may do?

Will they come out high & let it drop? Or come out low and let it rise?

[Francie26]

So many X-factors, that it'll be interesting to see your conclusion.

You have to consider what is in circulation, what is in banks, and what they're on the hook for liability wise.

Than, you have to consider GDP, GDP growth, population, and their trade (deficit or surplus).

If you use previous successful models, (i.e., 1988) you need to account for inflation.

We also have to consider, will they be amending their monetary policies... or will they remain the same (this is likely the bigget x-factor).

They can either do the simple quick band-aid now, or plan for the future.

They have to look at oil output estimations for the future.

Deals maybe being made to get their minerals out of the ground.

We can look at neighboring countries & their rates. Close the gap?

The rate has to be supported.... And would likely be higher if it was traded internationally (w/ reserve currency aspirations)

U.S. troop presence likely helped boost their local economy to a degree. Will they account for that negative reaction it may do?

Will they come out high & let it drop? Or come out low and let it rise?

Why can't he just guess, like we do?

[magawatt]

Darin: "Will they come out high & let it drop? Or come out low and let it rise?"

Gosh, I don't know which one to hope for!

But a proceedural question: Aren't there limits to how often a currency can revalue and maximums for the increase/decrease?

[dhardage]

Darin: "Will they come out high & let it drop? Or come out low and let it rise?"

Gosh, I don't know which one to hope for!

But a proceedural question: Aren't there limits to how often a currency can revalue and maximums for the increase/decrease?

Yes, according to the IMF rules. There is a percentage threshold that it cannot increase or decrease by for 90 days. Someone else will probably give you those percentages.

I believe it is 2% +/-

for what it is worth.

[Darin]

Darin: "Will they come out high & let it drop? Or come out low and let it rise?"

Gosh, I don't know which one to hope for!

But a proceedural question: Aren't there limits to how often a currency can revalue and maximums for the increase/decrease?

Dates or rates, which would you rather know? I would rather know the date.

What day will it be, we know that the ride is over... No more waiting, no more guessing, and no more trying to figure anything out.

I'd rather have a date...

Keep in mind, a date could simply mean official announcement of a r/d...

So when I reference date, I mean the next time the CBI posts a new exchange rate.... When it is no longer 1170.

1170 - such a unique #... However, if I ever saw it in person, I would be tempted to take a baseball to it. LOL

I have a locker at my work, and my locker # is 322...

I should put a $ in front of the 3 and a period after the 3. ($3.22)

Even better, I have a bunch of fortune cookies I saved & never ate in it...

[Brandygirl45]

IMO and all the reading I have done, I feel it will come in somewhere around $0.80. Then gradually increase, depending on what happens in Iraq. I don't see the government as stable and don't think they will become stable anytime soon if at all.

[tgpalmer1]

Adam, at the risk of being neg'd by some people who don't totally understand due diligence, I have to ask why you would decide to write a thesis about the rate and date in the eleventh hour. If you believe what you have been saying about an R/V by Thanksgiving, why write a thesis now. To much time on your hands? Not from the way you've cut chats short. Giving everyone something to read while they wait these last days before Thanksgiving? Unlikely.

For anyone who doesn't understand due diligence, it requires that you question everything and everyone in a search for the reality of a situation, or the true state of affairs. So before you neg me, know that I'm only questioning Adams timing on this. It just seems a bit odd to me. When something seems out of place, I can't help but question it.

Very odd you were not given red-----but the light is begining to shine-------

[kjwayne]

1. First, Iraq does not care about what is OUTSIDE of Iraq.The bigger picture, for them should be and is, the people and business that goes on everyday within their country. 2. Shab's is a smart man. He has a plan and has been working that plan for at least 2 years. We don,t have a clue as to how many large bills have already been taken in, out of circulation. 3. To get the Iraq people to stop using US Dollars and start using more of their own, Shab's must give them more reason than I said so. By making the IQD worth more than the US Dollars, the people will use the IQD MORE! 4. Alot more people smarter than me ,have said time and time again, that a central amount for Iraq to come out, middle of the road, would be in the $1.60 to $1.95 range and then let the market adjust. I hope they are right!

[armondtoth]

I'm partway through my promised thesis, which will explain what I think the Rate will be and why.

What do YOU think the rate will be, and why?

Total Redenomination, I believe for every 25K note you will receive 4 new 25 dinar notes then you will see .86 to 1.00 JMO

[Soonerbones]

Total Redenomination, I believe for every 25K note you will receive 4 new 25 dinar notes then you will see .86 to 1.00 JMO

Disagree, and the ISX put out a great series of statements as to why and lest we forget how much a country is tied to it's stock trade.

That being said, I believe we'll see a near straight up at 1 to 1 or just below for simplicity of tradings sake.

[pudge]

I had also thought it was for an advanced degree, and I had decided to offer be one of your early readers and to edit it for you. Whew!!! Saved by the right question asked at the right time!! (I've done this a number of times throughout my career, and it's a huge amount of work (requires many intense hours] to edit an advanced degree paper such as this would have been). But as luck would have it, this arcane work is something I'm quite good at doing.

Oh, the amazing skills of this many wonderful people!! I wonder how far they range. So let's do this. If you have an unusual talent or a special skill, let's list them here. http://iqd.me/l/yr It will be fun to see how many special talents we have.

Geeeeez! What the hell is this? Romper room?

[thatoneguy]

The idea of "de-dollarization" and a strong, competitive ME currency tells me at least $1. SOLD!

I'd love to be within the $ .10 range of my guesstimate! WooHoo!

Oh, yeah... One more thing, I hope Adam doesn't get a chance to finish his thesis. Love the thought and work being put into it, but you see my what I mean. Gooooo RV!!!

Edited October 26, 2011 by thatoneguy