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I'm writing my thesis on the RATE it will RV at...


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As I stated last week..1 to 1. for starters. Maybe double the first year and in 3 to 4 years we might see 3 to 4. Long term,5 plus years, I see + 10 to 1 considering the huge resourses this country has. I also think at the get go, they will keep it simple for the locals. Hence, the 1 to 1.

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Adam.....For a while now I've been saying 2 or 3 more years before a significant RV only so they have time to pull back a lot more dinar from circulation. There is just no way there can be a $1 RV when there is more than 20 trillion dinar in circulation and the CBI is saying there is around 28 trillion out there. I'm sure you know that in the whole world there is only about 10 to 15 trillion dollars worth of currency in circulation today.

The Iraqi economy is less than 1% of what the US economy is and our GNP is around $15 trillion, that puts the Iraqi GNP at about $100 billion. They cannot introduce trillions of dollars into the world money supply, even if they double and triple there GNP over the next few years.

The only way Iraq can RV at say 10 cents like you have mentioned, is if they do it soon before more dinar gets out into circulation. A 10 cent RV would add about $2.8 trillion dollars to the world currency value overnight, but if they can keep the country together and actually maintain a stable economy for a few years...it might be possibe?

Here's my call, since you asked.....Iraq will LOP (remove all the large bills from circulation) making a 25,000 note equal in worth to a 25 note....then they will RV to $3+ per dinar making their dinar on par with Kuwaits. This serves two purposes.....it gets all those big bills out of circulation and still increases the purchasing power of the dinar by 300%.The numbers will show that they will have increased the world money supply from $28 billion to $84 billion, a net increase of $56 billion dollars which I believe the Iraqi economy can support easily. Currently, the average Iraqi makes around $500 per month....my theory would boost that up to about $1,500 per month which is a significant increase given the condition of their infrastructure and political unrest. I think if you asked the average Iraqi what they think about a triple in value/wages...they would agree it is a good increase.

Then, if they can keep their country together and become a strong economic power we'll see the dinar rise in value slowly over the years to come. That's my story and I'm sticking to it B)

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I'm thinking the RV will come out low in the beginning, perhaps $0.10 to $0.30 and gradually float up from there. I would think Iraq would want to take out as much dinar as they can out of circulation, especially the larger notes at the lower rates, then raise the value gradually over a period of time.

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Okay, okay... I'll jump in the fray....

I'm going to put the range between 1.25 and 3.00. Why, because one of the key factors of the RV was/is to de-dollarize the Iraqi Economy. I'm pretty sure that some would go for a lower rate but that rate will not affect the average Iraqi citizen muchless those who are savy about currency exchange. A big part of this 'de-dollarization' is contingent on the Iraqi citizen. If they do not feel confident in the IQD, they're not going to sell/trade their dollars. The CBI has to establish a rate that will de-dollarize Iraq, give the Iraqi consumer a strong enough reason to de-dollarize, and be in potential "striking distance" of the KWD (if not be equal to them). And while the Kuwaiti Dinar holds a value in the 3.00 range, Iraq is just starting back up so they're going to have to show that their economy, and security situation, can sustain any rate close to Kuwait's. This is just my SWAG (scientific, wild-arsed guess) at it....

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Adam.....For a while now I've been saying 2 or 3 more years before a significant RV only so they have time to pull back a lot more dinar from circulation. There is just no way there can be a $1 RV when there is more than 20 trillion dinar in circulation and the CBI is saying there is around 28 trillion out there. I'm sure you know that in the whole world there is only about 10 to 15 trillion dollars worth of currency in circulation today.

The Iraqi economy is less than 1% of what the US economy is and our GNP is around $15 trillion, that puts the Iraqi GNP at about $100 billion. They cannot introduce trillions of dollars into the world money supply, even if they double and triple there GNP over the next few years.

The only way Iraq can RV at say 10 cents like you have mentioned, is if they do it soon before more dinar gets out into circulation. A 10 cent RV would add about $2.8 trillion dollars to the world currency value overnight, but if they can keep the country together and actually maintain a stable economy for a few years...it might be possibe?

Here's my call, since you asked.....Iraq will LOP (remove all the large bills from circulation) making a 25,000 note equal in worth to a 25 note....then they will RV to $3+ per dinar making their dinar on par with Kuwaits. This serves two purposes.....it gets all those big bills out of circulation and still increases the purchasing power of the dinar by 300%.The numbers will show that they will have increased the world money supply from $28 billion to $84 billion, a net increase of $56 billion dollars which I believe the Iraqi economy can support easily. Currently, the average Iraqi makes around $500 per month....my theory would boost that up to about $1,500 per month which is a significant increase given the condition of their infrastructure and political unrest. I think if you asked the average Iraqi what they think about a triple in value/wages...they would agree it is a good increase.

Then, if they can keep their country together and become a strong economic power we'll see the dinar rise in value slowly over the years to come. That's my story and I'm sticking to it B)

Here, Here!

Here, Here!

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Okay, okay... I'll jump in the fray....

I'm going to put the range between 1.25 and 3.00. Why, because one of the key factors of the RV was/is to de-dollarize the Iraqi Economy. I'm pretty sure that some would go for a lower rate but that rate will not affect the average Iraqi citizen muchless those who are savy about currency exchange. A big part of this 'de-dollarization' is contingent on the Iraqi citizen. If they do not feel confident in the IQD, they're not going to sell/trade their dollars. The CBI has to establish a rate that will de-dollarize Iraq, give the Iraqi consumer a strong enough reason to de-dollarize, and be in potential "striking distance" of the KWD (if not be equal to them). And while the Kuwaiti Dinar holds a value in the 3.00 range, Iraq is just starting back up so they're going to have to show that their economy, and security situation, can sustain any rate close to Kuwait's. This is just my SWAG (scientific, wild-arsed guess) at it....

Thanks for sharing your perspective Halo. Your post is interesting and a scenario that most of us have never thought of.

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Bahama Blue ... like one of the often changing shades of the water here...biggrin.gif

Caye 98

I have some land in Georgetown, Great Exuma. Been all over the islands, mostly in sailboats. Favorites are Little Whale, Eleuthera, Bimini, Green Turtle Cat Island and Man O'War. I miss them

Upon a decent RV I could afford to build a small stone house there overlooking Elizabeth Harbor. Absolutely one of the best views in the islands. :lol:

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<_< oh, dear...me can see that paper now....

Title: Theory on Iraq currency revalue.

Thesis: "i believe the revalue of the Iraqi Dinar will revalue at $14. + per dinar."

Finding/Body: "the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that this will happen every day. until people actually are at the bank collecting their earnings. the proof of come from the mouth of the greats guru crap artist of our time. we believe this to be true because OkieOilman said so.

Conclusion: in the immortal words of OkieOilman himself, "NUFF SAID".

meant as a joke deary...so relax and laugh. :lol:

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<_< oh, dear...me can see that paper now....

Title: Theory on Iraq currency revalue.

Thesis: "i believe the revalue of the Iraqi Dinar will revalue at $14. + per dinar."

Finding/Body: "the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that this will happen every day. until people actually are at the bank collecting their earnings. the proof of come from the mouth of the greats guru crap artist of our time. we believe this to be true because OkieOilman said so.

Conclusion: in the immortal words of OkieOilman himself, "NUFF SAID".

meant as a joke deary...so relax and laugh. :lol:

Finally somebody with some insight into this thing!!

I also was holding out for the $14 rate so I guess great minds....

Muwaaaahhaaabiggrin.gif

GP

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I think the question one has to ask is.....is the rv of the dinar based solely on the intentions of one country and their currency, or is this truly an event that includes many countries and a significant change in the currencies of these countries? If only about Iraq, the rate should be very low, or as one poster said, lop. A foreign country like Iraq, who is filled with corrupt politicians will do everything in their power to have a strong currency while at the same time make certain their citizens, and the citizens of the US, benefit as little as possible.....

so in summation, if Iraq, the rate will be low...

and if the Rothschild's and other Central Banks, we may be rich.....

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