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Pitcher

Oil drops most since 1982

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18 hours ago, Pitcher said:


All planned, new stuff will replace the Petro dollar. Sit back and enjoy gas for 1.30 a gal.  What I paid today. Wow. 

£1.50 a litre on our mid sized island on west coast of Scotland.. So 6-7 bucks a gallon.. Crazy that we actually have fricken Oil fields and pay £6 uk a gallon..Cant't wait for this **** show to be over. Nearly 17 years Waiting Anticipating but mostly commiserating .lol

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Who wins and who loses when oil prices fall?

By Dharshini David Global trade correspondent
  • 36 minutes agO
 
A slump in oil prices is normally a cause for celebration in gas-guzzling nations. The average American burns through 10 litres of oil or oil products per day in normal times.

But for oil producing countries - the "global petropolis" - such a drop in the cost of crude can spell disaster, and hardship for millions.

It's easy to see why oil is referred to as black gold. When the price was riding high, oil revenues filled the coffers of companies and governments in the countries that produce it. That kept people fed and public services flourishing.

But now, having oil can be a curse rather than a blessing.

The International Energy Agency previously warned that Ecuador, Nigeria and Iraq could be worst hit, with earnings falling by between 50% and 85% - and that was assuming oil prices of $30 a barrel. Now, it's less than $20 a barrel.

All their economies were under pressure already, all are heavily dependent on oil.

Fuel accounts for 98.5% of Iraq's export earnings (gems, precious metals, fruit and nuts make up most of the rest). The agency claims Iraq's government will now face a $50bn spending shortfall for the year, even if it were to only pay its civil servants, rendering spending on areas like healthcare vulnerable at the worst possible time.

How much a country spends on producing oil also dictates its vulnerability. Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest bills for extracting oil - but its dependence on the commodity means it too could face a funding shortfall of over $100bn. It's still recovering from the last major drop in oil prices in 2014. Attempts to push into areas such as tourism were insufficient to plug the gap.

 

It needs the oil price to be around $85 a barrel to balance the books on government spending.

Ironically, it was Saudi that accelerated the oil price volatility by threatening to boost production to punish its rival Russia - a country which is far less vulnerable to swings in the price of crude.

President Trump has weighed in to promise support to the US oil and gas industry (in addition to the $650bn of subsidies the fossil fuel sector already gets). While it is the issues of storage and distribution there that have caused such a marked swing in the West Texas Intermediate measure of prices, oil production makes up a far lesser proportion of the US economy than in many other nations. And that makes the US less vulnerable.

 

The lower price is, in theory, a bonus to its drivers and factories - and to those elsewhere. Typically, countries that are net users would stand to enjoy a boost - but that is very muted for most at present, given restrictions on movements and production.

But it'll benefit oil's biggest customer, China, which accounts for a fifth of imports and is reportedly stockpiling bargain-basement crude as it fires up its production lines again.

On the whole, as the oil price has dropped, the risk of deeper recessions for producers has grown. However, if sustained, the fall could help the recovery in other nations further down the road. Source: BBC World news

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1 hour ago, DinarThug said:

:o 

 

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:D  :D  :D  

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Are Negative Oil Prices About To Become The New Normal?

By ZeroHedge - Apr 21, 2020, 6:42 PM CDT

It was only six years ago that financial professionals thought they had stumbled into the twilight zone when central banks first ushered in negative interest rates. Little did they know that in the not too distant future, the central banks' takeover of capital markets and the failure to price aggregate supply or demand would mean negative crude oil prices.

Alas, in this bizarro world where a new 100-sigma event seems to take place every day, just one day later we now have options with negative strikes, just in case someone wishes to eviscerate the USO again next month, and the month after, and make a killing - metaphorically we hope - in the process.

In an advisory notice published late on Tuesday, the CME Group said that, effective April 22, the clearing house will switch its options pricing and valuation model for certain crude and energy products (i.e., oil) to Bachelier "to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes for the set of products specifies below."

The switch will be effective for the margin cycle run at the end of trading on April 22 and will remain in place until further notice.

In other words, so great was the demand from CME clients to issue negative strike options after Monday'sfiasco, that it will now be a regular staple of the commodity market for the duration of the coronavirus-induced demand collapse, where every month at contract maturity we should now expect the price of oil to be "pinned" deep in negative territory.

It also begs the following philosophical question: does negative gamma on negative options strikes become... positive?

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The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices

By Nick Cunningham - Apr 21, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT

Dashing hopes for some oil producers who may have thought negative prices were a weird quirk, the June WTI contract fell sharply on Tuesday.

During intraday trading June contracts collapsed by more than 45 percent, falling close to $11 per barrel. The selloff demonstrated that the ruinous supply glut is not going away, and that the meltdown for the May contract was not just a bizarre anomaly, but representative of an acute state of oversupply in North America.

In fact, there could be a rerun of negative prices in a month’s time, according to several analysts. “We believe prices are likely to remain at basement levels in the short-term with further shut-ins forthcoming - expect late-May to bring similar price movements as the June contract rolls over,” Raymond James wrote in a note on Tuesday.

The malaise bled over into Brent prices, which collapsed below $20 per barrel by midday Tuesday, down more than 25 percent.

While forecasts have suggested that U.S. oil production could fall by 1 or 2 or 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) by the end of 2021, depending on who you ask, the lack of storage and collapsing prices means that shut ins could begin to mount very quickly. “[T]he physical reality of a still massively oversupplied oil market will likely exert downward pressure on the June WTI contract,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Tuesday. “But with ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, production will soon need to fall sizeably to bring the market into balance, finally setting the stage for higher prices once demand gradually recovers.”

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“This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,” Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a “violent rebalancing.”

The crisis for the industry has entered a new phase, which will surely provoke more twists and turns. The Trump administration, flailing about, is trying to come up with ways to bailout the industry. On Monday, President Trump suggested that he would consider halting imports of oil from Saudi Arabia (“We’ll look at it”), while also reiterating his plan to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve with 75 million barrels of oil.

On Tuesday, he tweeted that he ordered the Secretaries of Energy and Treasury to come up with a rescue plan.

Also on Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission puntedon the idea of mandating production cuts. Two of the three commissioners were uneasy with the idea of voting on the proposal. Ryan Sitton, the one commissioner in favor of requiring a 20 percent cut in the state’s production, argued that not voting was itself a decision, allowing the market to mete out production cuts in a disorderly fashion. “I don’t believe that inaction on our part is acceptable,” Sitton said.

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Meanwhile, there are other ideas for government intervention. The oil and gas industry is lobbying the Federal Reserve to loosen its $600 billion lending facility to allow drillers to use funds to repay debt, according to Reuters.

In addition, the “Treasury [Department] could guarantee loans to distressed firms in return for equity stakes or senior debt, and Washington could use its voting shares to compel shut-ins (i.e., as part of a bargain with OPEC+),” ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients.

While the oil market drowns in oversupply, there also seems to be a glut of unusual policy responses coming from Washington aimed at bailing out the industry.

But in the face of demand destruction on the order of 25 to 30 million barrels per day (mb/d), there is very little that the U.S. government can do to head off steep production losses and bankruptcies.

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14 hours ago, screwball said:

Short term pain for long term gain...

 

:twothumbs: 

 

 

On 4/20/2020 at 3:17 PM, DinarThug said:

In this context, economist Majed Al-Suri assures that this option will not be easy, as the International Monetary Fund previously loaned Iraq without paying all of these loans, which means that it is difficult to borrow from it again, stating that "any loan that the International Fund can grant to Baghdad will not exceed two billion dollars." , While the fiscal budget deficit of 2020 amounts to 90 billion dollars. "

 

2 billion :lol: 

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13 hours ago, Pitcher said:

effective April 22, the clearing house will switch its options pricing and valuation model for certain crude and energy products (i.e., oil) to Bachelier "to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes for the set of products specifies below."

The switch will be effective for the margin cycle run at the end of trading on April 22 and will remain in place until further notice.

 

And just like that - we live in a new world. 

 

13 hours ago, Pitcher said:

“This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,” Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a “violent rebalancing.”

 

This might be THE strongest case I've ever seen for a GCR. I'm still not a proponent of a full GCR, but the evidence and situation details just keep piling on... this is wild.

 

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9 minutes ago, Adam Montana said:

 

This might be THE strongest case I've ever seen for a GCR. I'm still not a proponent of a full GCR, but the evidence and situation details just keep piling on... this is wild

Like you I've always thought the GCR was little more than an internet "Urban Legend", but it's beginning to look a lot more likely an outcome than anything else. Problem is all the other stuff that comes with it not related to currency. 

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1 hour ago, Adam Montana said:

And just like that - we live in a new world. 

 

This might be THE strongest case I've ever seen for a GCR.

I'm still not a proponent of a full GCR, but the evidence and situation details just keep piling on... this is wild.

 

SoTonight We’re Gonna Party Like It’s RV’ed At $19.99 ! :o 

 
Prince GIF
 
:D  :D  :D 

 

 

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Brent crude below $ 16 a barrel for the first time since 1999


20330.jpg

 

22nd April, 2020

 

The price of Brent futures for the month of June fell on Wednesday to below $ 16 a barrel for the first time since 1999, according to trading

As of 7:34 Moscow time, the price of Brent North Sea crude futures fell 12.62% to $ 16.89 a barrel
 
The price of Brent North Sea crude futures for the month of June, at 6:42 Moscow time, decreased by 12.62% to $ 16.89 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were recorded, for the first time in history, for the first time in history, and decreased to minus $ 37 a barrel

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The Oil Ministry comments on the collapse of oil prices


20312.jpg

 

22nd April, 2020

 

A spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry, Assem Jihad, confirmed on Tuesday that stopping the collapse of oil prices in the world is linked to controlling the "Coffed 19" pandemic, pointing out that the continued restriction of movement means more losses

Jihad said to the Russian "Sputnik" and was seen by "Al-Iqtisad News", "This situation is normal in light of the lack of control of the Corona pandemic, which causes a recession in crude oil, inflation in storage operations and inflation in supply operations and therefore this is a natural issue because of the lack of a movement to purchase, Thus, this reflects negatively on oil prices

He added that "the supply now exceeds the demand and there is a large inflation in supplies and storage, which has reached a large stage, whether in the producing or consuming countries

"The matter is related to the extent of control of the Corona virus and the gradual return of movement. The more we return to the normal movement, this will reflect positively on oil consumption and therefore on prices. The more restriction continues, the markets will see more losses

And held the Economic Ministerial Council in Iraq, yesterday evening, Monday, an emergency session to discuss the repercussions of the financial situation of the country coinciding with a sharp drop in oil prices, announcing several decisions

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The oil minister expects more measures to absorb
the surplus oil


20334.jpg
 

22nd April, 2020

 

Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Al-Ghadban said on Tuesday that OPEC + and other producers may take additional measures to control the oversupply of crude oil that is fueling panic in global markets

Al-Ghadhban's speech came after his participation with a number of OPEC + ministers in a direct meeting through an electronic department centered at the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC +) to discuss the implications of the sharp drop in oil prices, as well as measures that can be taken during the subsequent period

Al-Ghadhban said in a statement received by "Al-Iqtisad News", that the meeting heard a report by the OPEC Research Center on the evaluation of the oil market situation during the current period and expectations for the next stage, especially after the recent OPEC + agreement, which provides for a reduction of (9.7) million barrels per day

Al-Ghadban added, "The meeting also dealt with the repercussions and causes of the decline in oil prices in the American market, and the effects of this on other global markets

He pointed out, "The agreement in this meeting to intensify contacts between the (OPEC +) ministers for the purpose of closely watching the developments in the oil market and the changes that occur in it, after the agreement entered into force as of May 1, 2020

Al-Ghadban added, "The recent production cut agreement is one of the measures and steps taken to absorb the oil surplus in global markets after the spread of the Corona epidemic

The anger did not exclude the taking of other measures by the ministers of the producing countries, but this depends on the developments of the global market, and the extent of commitment of producers from OPEC + and the rest of the producers from outside it to the agreement to reduce production

According to the statement, the meeting included the ministers of all of Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, in addition to the Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC

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meanwhile they keep up with supply!!!!! ... with nowhere to put or consume it !!!!! ....train wreck comes to mind ! IMO  .... SOON

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4 hours ago, Adam Montana said:

 

And just like that - we live in a new world. 

 

 

This might be THE strongest case I've ever seen for a GCR. I'm still not a proponent of a full GCR, but the evidence and situation details just keep piling on... this is wild.

 

We have been hearing for years now that before Iraq pulls the trigger on the RV of the IQD we will see a break in the system. Somewhere around 90% of there budget is based on oil. Could the collapse of oil prices be the Break In The System?!

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Trump Orders U.S. Oil Major Out Of Venezuela

By Irina Slav - Apr 22, 2020, 9:30 AM CDT

President Donald Trump has ordered Chevron to start "winding down" its oil production in Venezuela in the latest increase in pressure against the Maduro government in Caracas.

The AP reports that Chevron has invested some $2.6 billion in field development and equipment in Venezuela over the last hundred years and is to date the only U.S. oil company that Washington has allowed to continue operating in the country.

Yet this may soon end, as Trump seeks to tighten the noose around the Maduro government's neck further. The United States government has granted Chevron a series of exemptions from sanctions against Venezuela. With the current state of the oil industry, however, along with the push for maximum pressure on Caracas, these may end soon. If that happens, the company would be obliged to write down its investments in Venezuela. 

Chevron's last extension for its Venezuela operations expires today.

Chevron operates a joint venture with Venezuela's PDVSA in the country that is home to the world's most abundant oil resources. Petroboscan, the joint venture, produced around 200,000 bpd as of October, with Chevron's share of this at 34,000 bpd. The U.S. supermajor holds a 30-percent stake in the venture. In March, the output of Petroboscan fell by more than 50 percent to 50,000 bpd from as much as 120,000 bpd just three months later.

Until recently, Chevron was not so willing to take that asset writeoff on its Venezuelan operations. The company argued that if it leaves the country, it will create a void that will be filled by Russian and Chinese companies, which would, Chevron said, harm U.S. geopolitical interests in Venezuela. Now, the supermajor may be more willing to stop pumping oil in the South American country with oil prices off a cliff and little hope for a quick recovery.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged that the Maduro government is negotiating with the opposition; although details are not available, the fact of the talks suggests that both sides are worried about their survival amid the coronavirus outbreak, which has exacerbated an already dramatic economic and political situation.

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Oil Jumps After Trump Orders Navy To ‘’Shoot And Destroy’’ Iranian Gunboats

By Tom Kool - Apr 22, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT

After two dark days for crude, oil prices are rallying again on Wednesday morning after U.S. President Trump triggered a small short-covering rally by tweeting that he has ordered the U.S. Navy to "Shoot Down And Destroy" Iranian gunboats if they harass U.S. ships.

Once again, President Trump’s tweet manages to lift oil prices hinting at an escalation of conflict with Iran.  

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s number one shipping lane for crude oil, continue to play a role in the markets, albeit a much smaller one. 

The world hasn’t forgotten about the attacks on the Abqaiq oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in September which triggered a 20 percent price jump in Brent crude, or the assassination of Iran’s top General Qassem Soleimani, which put the region on the brink of war.

 

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President Trump’s tweet follows a string of incidents in the waters off the Iranian coast, starting with the harrassment of a US-flagged boxship on April 2nd by heavily armed Iranian patrol boats, followed by Iran’s deployment of anti-ship missiles on Qeshm Island in that same week. 

Reports of the seizure of a Hong-Kong flagged tanker on April 14th weren’t confirmed by Iran, but suspicion fell almost directly on the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was Iran’s latest move, however, that provoked Trump’s ire. Last Wednesday, a group of 11 Iranian patrol boars made some “dangerous and harassing” maneuvers near U.S. warships, passing within 10 yards of a U.S. flagged vessel. After badgering the U.S. vessels for around an hour, the Iranian boats left the scene. 

Iran’s government did not react to the incident, but President Trump came out with a firm response on Wednesday morning, giving clear instructions to the U.S. Navy.

While President Trump’s tweet may have distracted the market for a bit, markets are bracing for a very bearish EIA crude inventory report, which analysts believe could become the largest crude inventory build on record.   

In a ‘normal’ oil market, Trump’s tweet could have been a gamechanger, but in today’s woefully oversupplied market, its bullish effect won’t last very long.

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The Very Real Possibility of -$100 Oil

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 22, 2020, 11:00 AM CDT

An oil analyst who warned of negative oil prices a month ago now says that the WTI Crude futures prices could crash to as low as a negative $100 per barrel in May.  

In a note last month, Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Securities, said, “Oil prices can go negative,” reported Fox Business

Back then, in the middle of March, most analysts did not believe that oil prices could sink into negative territory and said the ‘negative oil price’ was just an attention-grabbing headline. 

However, a month later, to the day, WTI Crude crashed by more than 300% to a negative $37 a barrel on Monday, a day before the WTI Crude May contract expired as traders rushed the exit to avoid owning physical barrels of oil for delivery in May.

In a new research note this week, quoted by Houston Chronicle’s Sergio Chapa, Mizuho’s Sankey said, “This negative price was not a purely paper anomaly.”

“It was the reality of paper markets meeting physical markets, and the last holders of the May contract for crude being unable to get out of their ultimate requirement to take delivery of crude at landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma,” according to Sankey.

Premium: The Oil Sector That Will Suffer The Most

“If you had a stinking barrel of oil in your back yard, would you pay someone $100 a barrel to take it away?” Sankey said. “Yes, and you would probably be relieved you were not charged $300 a barrel. That is the situation we are in, of producers having nowhere to go with the inexorable production that takes weeks and months to reduce to zero,” the expert says, as carried by the Houston Chronicle.

“It’s possible that if current conditions continue, Cushing storage tanks could reach capacity by mid-May,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said on Tuesday.

According to ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao on Tuesday:

“A key question is whether we could see a repeat of this with the June expiry next month. It is likely that storage this time next month will be even more of an issue, given the surplus environment, and so in the absence of a meaningful demand recovery, negative prices could return for June.”

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On 4/20/2020 at 12:16 PM, Adam Montana said:

Oil plunges 321% into negative territory for the first time ever as demand evaporates

 

Thanks Adam for the post and everyone who commented on this thread.

 

On 4/20/2020 at 8:16 AM, Pitcher said:

The play is to watch, wait, and pick out 1-2 stocks to follow. This oil deal will get resolved and the big boys will survive. CVX is my play when the time is right.  I thought we might go to the mid teens but this is down right scary for our oil companies.  

 

I know now a lot of people hate oil companies but if they get run out of business you will hate buying oil from the ME and Russia at 100-200 a barrel a lot more.  This is a grab for market share and control by SA and Russia.  They are deliberately trying to crush the Texas shale oil companies.  

 

SA, Iran, Iraq, had better knock it off or we will take them over and rename the region Texaco.  Do not doubt me on this.  We will never be held up by the ME or Russia when it comes to oil.  The oil blackmail business is over!!!!!

 

Thanks Pitcher for the post and starting this thread...Ron :twothumbs:

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Great 2 minute interview about what happened and why it will only be temporary.  That's not to say that longer term oil prices won't be low, probably between $25-40 because oil demand going forward will decrease (for the several reasons I mentioned here yesterday).  But this current tanking of WTI oil (which is impacting all oil prices) will stabilize as producers cut production and the glut of oil is gradually absorbed.  I couldn't copy the video directly, but if you click the link it will take you to the page and start playing immediately.

 

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6151074093001#sp=show-clips

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6 hours ago, Pitcher said:

This was interesting to me. 

 

 

 

An excellent video Pitcher, :twothumbs:thanks for posting it..Blessings...RON:salute:

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6 hours ago, KristiD said:

Great 2 minute interview about what happened and why it will only be temporary.  That's not to say that longer term oil prices won't be low, probably between $25-40 because oil demand going forward will decrease (for the several reasons I mentioned here yesterday).  But this current tanking of WTI oil (which is impacting all oil prices) will stabilize as producers cut production and the glut of oil is gradually absorbed.  I couldn't copy the video directly, but if you click the link it will take you to the page and start playing immediately.  https://video.foxnews.com/v/6151074093001#sp=show-clips

 

Thanks KristiD for this excellent clip - it explains why oil prices tanked very well. :twothumbs: Ron

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Oil prices are witnessing a remarkable increase after
a historic decline

 

o%C4%B1l.jpg

 

23rd April, 2020


Oil prices rose significantly during trading today, Thursday, after heavy losses incurred earlier this week. By 07:28 Moscow time, Brent futures were trading at $ 22.24 a barrel, up 9.28% from the previous settlement price.

While US crude futures were trading at $ 15.39 a barrel, an increase of 11.54% over the previous closing price. US crude contracts for May fell below zero, reaching $ 40.32 (negative) per barrel, meaning the seller is willing to pay the buyer for the amount of oil mentioned in the May contract. On Wednesday, Brent contracts fell below the level of $ 16 a barrel, the lowest level since 1999.

The oil market is witnessing sharp fluctuations in light of the decline in global demand for crude due to the Corona pandemic and the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the virus, as economic activities in many countries of the world have declined, in addition to that, global crude inventories are almost completely filled with oil. In light of these fluctuations, the International Energy Agency and OPEC reduced their forecasts for the global demand for current world oil. To support the markets, the countries of the "OPEC +" group agreed to reduce the group's production by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June of this year, with the cuts to be reduced in the second half of 2020 to April 2022.

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3 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Oil prices are witnessing a remarkable increase after a historic decline

 

Thanks for the Article D.Thug...:twothumbs:...much appreciated - RON

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