Kaperoni - Article: "Expectations Adopting The 2014 Budget Year Early" !

[DinarThug]

CNN. Broadcasting The Annual 'Shaking Of The Iraqi Budget' To Try And Tell If There's An RV Prize Inside !

 

 

 

9-16-2013  Newshound Guru Doc   Before all the "RV rate in in the budget" rumors heat up lets put it to bed now.  Here is a recent article quote "Committee member Rep. Nora Bijari said in a statement (morning) that the draft budget next year (2014) be found at the Ministry of Finance a budget large, as amounting to nearly 146 trillion dinars, and the ministry will send a copy of the budget to the Council of Ministers for the purpose of voting on them". 

9-16-2013  Newshound Guru Doc   Notice the amount of 146 trillion dinar.  If it contained a RV rate of $1 the budget would be in the range of 150 billion dinar and if it contained a rate of $3 the budget would be around 50 billion dinar.  Most likely the 2014 budget is being compiled with an assumed rate of ...1166, the current program rate.  This is just further evidence that the most likely path forward for currency reform is a gradual rise via a float rather than an immediate step change to a high value like $3+.  We report, you decide. 

 

 

9-15-2013  Newshound Guru Doc   Many rumors continue and time has proven all false.  Obviously the "at any moment" crowd has been shown inaccurate.  Other arguments which are incorrect are the value will "increase to that of Kuwait because if it is lower then Iraq will not be getting equal value for its oil" and hence it has to RV at $3+.  This statement simply reflects a lack of understanding of global currency markets and can easily be seen as false when looking at Saudi.  Saudi's currency is $0.27.  Does this mean Saudi gets less for its oil then Kuwait?  Of coarse not.  The fact is oil is priced in USD and not the local currency.  Each country receives USD and then converts to local currency.  It is irrelevant the value of their local currency. 

 

9-15-2013  Newshound Guru Doc   We had our currency experts do an interesting exercise.  They calculated today's value based on starting with the value during Sadam's reign and adjusting for increased money supply, inflation and current oil output.  The results were in the range of 50 cents to $1.  This is telling in that all mid term goals stated by the CBI, SIGR, etc. has not changed from the $1 target.   Our opinion remains that the immediate $3+ opinions have no concrete foundation.  The most likely scenario and one the CBI has indicated is a float which we believe will progress to the $1 range gien  appropriate time including oil output increases.  Unfortunately even this scenario is awaiting the GOI to do its part and pass the necessary supporting laws.  We report, you decide.

 

9-15-2013  Newshound Guru Tlar   Article:  "Expectations of the adoption of the 2014 budget year early"   It would not surprise me if they complete this budget in early October.  If as we have been told that the budget is based on 1.16 dinars per dollar it would be to their advantage to complete it as soon as possible.  IMO there appears to be a rush now to put the economic house in order including put the legality of the governorship of the CBI.

 

 

9-15-2013  Newshound Guru Kaperoni  Article:  "Expectations of the adoption of the 2014 budget year early"   It can only happen if they do what they need to do first.  And if that happens, we wont care about the budget.

 

 

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

***///

 

That sure is a wide variety of what ifs and maybes....

 

But still meaty enough to keep us comin' back for more....

 

Sometimes being a dinar carnivore makes us do dumb things.

 

 

Thanks YerTHUGness !  

[Dinar Buddy]

QUESTION...  so we are 100% confirmed that the budget will have the RV in place to change the currency?  if not why are we discussing the budget to get folks hopes up.

 

Consider in more details and the equilibrium in the money market and in the foreign exchange market under flexible exchange rates. In the money market, the equilibrium condition is the equality between real money supply and real money demand: There are many factors.  Example.  What is the T Bond rate at the CBI, and how many T Bonds do they own.

 

MS/P = L(Y, i) (1)

Equation (1) is represented graphically in Figure 2.

The equilibrium in the exchange rate market is given by the uncovered interest rate parity.

i = i* + {[E_t(S_t+1)/ S_t]-1} (2)

 

Using posted formulas could negate that the budget has any impact on the exchange rate of a country.  Last, there needs to be a clear path to understand the demand for currency to have value.  If it is a simple oil exchange for cash it is not enough to change value...

 

Just some thoughts.  We want this RV!

[zigmeister]

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/News/Northampton-News/Northampton-clown-strikes-again-with-another-spooky-visitation-14092013.htm

 

Hey Thug....you weren't in the UK on the 13th were ya?

Edited September 16, 2013 by zigmeister

[Nadita]

***///

 

That sure is a wide variety of what ifs and maybes....

 

But still meaty enough to keep us comin' back for more....

 

Sometimes being a dinar carnivore makes us do dumb things.

 

 

Thanks YerTHUGness !  

Gals,

 

I agree with you..wonder if they put any addictive to it lol

[sandstorm]

If the dinar does float, there's no guarantee the rate improves. You will have thousands of dinar holders waiting to dump and profit. Where is the external demand that will increase the rate? The money going into Iraq will go in the form of the isx. I actually think if the dinar floats, the rate will get worse

Unless they rd, and get rid of the past effects of a hyper inflated money supply.

[NWGUY]

Thanks Thug!!!

 

Well, this is more confirmation, that we are going to be waiting a while longer...so much for believing our local guru's!  Stryker, and Doc, seem to be in the same thoughts.  If it is going to happen, it will be later this year, or first of 2014.  I hope they are wrong, but my dinar are in a very safe, and convenient place, until "it" happened!

 

Go RV or RI Soon!!!

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

Gals,

 

I agree with you..wonder if they put any addictive to it lol

***///

 

Maybe there's magic powder on the currency and now we're hypnotized or sumthin'...!   :eek:  

[Kaduku]

RV going to be near the $3.00 mark if not slightly higher!

[chess]

.....HUH?......what the hail does the San Francisco QB know about the Iraqi budget??

[lost one]

RV going to be near the $3.00 mark if not slightly higher!

 

[chess]

QUESTION...  so we are 100% confirmed that the budget will have the RV in place to change the currency?  if not why are we discussing the budget to get folks hopes up.

 

Consider in more details and the equilibrium in the money market and in the foreign exchange market under flexible exchange rates. In the money market, the equilibrium condition is the equality between real money supply and real money demand: There are many factors.  Example.  What is the T Bond rate at the CBI, and how many T Bonds do they own.

 

MS/P = L(Y, i) (1)

Equation (1) is represented graphically in Figure 2.

The equilibrium in the exchange rate market is given by the uncovered interest rate parity.

i = i* + {[E_t(S_t+1)/ S_t]-1} (2)

 

Using posted formulas could negate that the budget has any impact on the exchange rate of a country.  Last, there needs to be a clear path to understand the demand for currency to have value.  If it is a simple oil exchange for cash it is not enough to change value...

 

Just some thoughts.  We want this RV!

 

Please plug in some typical sample nos. into the formula.....thx

[Jaygo]

If the dinar does float, there's no guarantee the rate improves. You will have thousands of dinar holders waiting to dump and profit. Where is the external demand that will increase the rate? The money going into Iraq will go in the form of the isx. I actually think if the dinar floats, the rate will get worse

Unless they rd, and get rid of the past effects of a hyper inflated money supply.

Go home.

[chess]

If the dinar does float, there's no guarantee the rate improves. You will have thousands of dinar holders waiting to dump and profit. Where is the external demand that will increase the rate? The money going into Iraq will go in the form of the isx. I actually think if the dinar floats, the rate will get worse

Unless they rd, and get rid of the past effects of a hyper inflated money supply.

 

 

......facts and logic have no place in RV discussion!!

[Djorgie]

RV going to be near the $3.00 mark if not slightly higher!

Well, I am interested in the basis of your theory. I'm not saying it will or it won't be in that range because I DO NOT KNOW. I would like to hear your reasoning though. Just so you know, I'm not being sarcastic, I really am interested in your point of view.

[Jaygo]

Well, I am interested in the basis of your theory. I'm not saying it will or it won't be in that range because I DO NOT KNOW. I would like to hear your reasoning though. Just so you know, I'm not being sarcastic, I really am interested in your point of view.

Me too please!!

[hame55]

RV going to be near the $3.00 mark if not slightly higher!

Did the Kenyan Muslim tell you?

[Raleighwood]

......facts and logic have no place in RV discussion!!

Lol

[happygilmore]

2005= RV Must be in the Budget

2006= RV Must be in the Budget

2007= RV Must be in the Budget

2008= RV Must be in the Budget

2009= RV Must be in the Budget

2010= RV Must be in the Budget

2011= RV Must be in the Budget

2012= RV Must be in the Budget

2013=RV Must be in the Budget

 

Anybody see a pattern?

[chess]

 

2005= RV Must be in the Budget

2006= RV Must be in the Budget

2007= RV Must be in the Budget

2008= RV Must be in the Budget

2009= RV Must be in the Budget

2010= RV Must be in the Budget

2011= RV Must be in the Budget

2012= RV Must be in the Budget

2013=RV Must be in the Budget

 

Anybody see a pattern?

 

 

 

......yes, of course.....the years are numbered consecutively!

[RVWITHME]

Hey Thug: Was this you out scaring the locals?

 

Creepy Northampton clown terrifying residents by standing around on street corners staring at passers-by

 

Northampton clown. Image: Facebook

17 September 2013

A creepy and anonymous clown has been terrifying residents of Northampton by standing around on street corners and staring at passers-by.

The clown, who bears a striking resemblance to Pennywise from the 1990 film It, adapted from the Stephen King novel of the same name, first appeared on Friday 13th and was spotted again over the weekend.

 

According to the Northampton Herald and Post the clown has appeared in several locations in the Abington and Kingsley areas of the town. On each sighting, he or she has worn the same white face makeup, red wig, all-in-one suit and oversized bowtie.

 

He is also sometimes seen carrying a clown teddy.

[Happy Man]

If the dinar does float, there's no guarantee the rate improves. You will have thousands of dinar holders waiting to dump and profit. Where is the external demand that will increase the rate? The money going into Iraq will go in the form of the isx. I actually think if the dinar floats, the rate will get worse

Unless they rd, and get rid of the past effects of a hyper inflated money supply.

 

Ifit floats its going to be on Forex. There are Trillions of $$$ traded on forex. There will be people to trade the IQD and some business people that will need to buy and sell IQD

[sandstorm]

Ifit floats its going to be on Forex. There are Trillions of $$$ traded on forex. There will be people to trade the IQD and some business people that will need to buy and sell IQD

Why would any investor have demand for a currency the cbis talked about replacing?

There is no demand for the dinar. Even the Iraqis trade it in on pay days.

We're talking about a currency no one wants. Where the instantaneous demand that's going to float the dinar to a dollar?

If most dinarians will be cashing out at an intial float, you have a bunch of people dumping and no one buying.

Your going to need people wanting to buy the dinar at a dollar for that to ever be the rate

[Happy Man]

Why would any investor have demand for a currency the cbis talked about replacing?

There is no demand for the dinar. Even the Iraqis trade it in on pay days.

We're talking about a currency no one wants. Where the instantaneous demand that's going to float the dinar to a dollar?

If most dinarians will be cashing out at an intial float, you have a bunch of people dumping and no one buying.

Your going to need people wanting to buy the dinar at a dollar for that to ever be the rate

 

There wont be old IQD notes values and new IQD notes value unless there is a lop.

 

who will buy IQD? banks, insurance company, forex speculator, business people that needs to do business in IRAQ .

 

The rate will be whatever people are willing to pay for it and I am sure that the CBI will ensure that the IQD will stay at around a $USD or more.

[powerpager]

Thanx Thug !