SWFG Interview Part 1

[Darin]

Indeed it has been talked about a lot.  But if my views are correct, then it hasn't sunk in as you still talk about a possible (if you are talking about a huge gain) upside.  If you're taking about 10% (which would not cover the spared most folks paid), sure that could happen but the vast majority here are not thinking along those lines.  So if I am right you do NOT know the possibilities.  I certainly agree respecting others is key, no one is going to change their views by being disrespected.

 

Again if you or Zig do not want to hear what I have to say, there is always the ignore feature.  Let me ask you (or Zig), if my posts are objectionable why keep reading them?

 

A 'huge' gain is a long-shot. Many grounded people here may consider that to be true. Some of us are hoping to see some changes for the better. Maybe switching back to a crawling-peg regime will provide a chance for the official rate to rise. Is it possible for them to switch back to this currency exchange system? Of course so, history in recent years shows that they have done it and it can be something that they switch back to... So we may see small improvements from time to time, but if overall the adjustments are continuously in our favor, than we may see profits.

Why doesn't it make sense?  Sure you can reverse it, you have not convinced me that a huge RV is possible.  The difference is you do not even attempt to provide that argument, which leads me to conclude you have none.  Again its classic confirmation bias at work.

 

Many of us here are doubtful of a huge R/V. But the definition of huge may vary among most. I highly doubt that I will wake up and find out one day that each unit of IQD is worth $0.10 or higher, but achieving $0.10 in the long-term is not impossible. But, we can all sit here and argue the future, but none of us can see it but only offer opinions.

How much you want to bet I can find posts on this forum made within the last week that say the dinar HAS to RV, and that the worst that can happen is you sell and break even? You're wrong, many investors DO NOT know the downside.

And hardly any investors have a realistic grasp on the upside. An RV to even one cent makes no sense and will not happen.

 

All investments have downsides... You can lose a little bit of value or possibly lose an entire investment.

 

But to say it is impossible to reach $0.01 is rather entertaining. If it requires 100% of liquid asset reserves to reach that point, I can see that your argument holds some ground. But, its not like they'll stick with 1166 forever. Changes may eventually have to occur. They may reach 1000:1, they may make their way to 750:1 from there, and slowly continue rising the value. Overnight? Hard to see it as a possibility... But it could reach that point.

 

The downside is even Iraqis within their own nation do not have demand for their own currency. They seek dollars. Must not be a whole lot of incentive to hold dinars...

 

[zigmeister]

Hey Zig, I have a funny feeling we are in the same kind of mood today !!!!!   

Indeed!

Ok, but why spend time on this site?  Everyone who believes in an RV says there will be no warning and you can't possible miss it, so what is the point of being here?  I'm guessing that you just enjoy the interaction, well me too.

 

Good for you.

Again if you or Zig do not want to hear what I have to say, there is always the ignore feature.  Let me ask you (or Zig), if my posts are objectionable why keep reading them?

Why keep reading mine....I am lost in RV space....?  I am lost and wandering around waiting for you to save me.....Wait you could be wrong...

[hame55]

So the whole "respect" theme didn't last long did it Caz?

Well ego is an issue for all of us isn't it?  Ok, you don't care to try and convince me that your view is correct.  Fine.  Then why are you reading my posts?  What others choose to believe is not the issue.  Some here have explicitly stated that they understand that economics says it can't happen, but they chose to believe it anyway just for fun or whatever.  i'm fine with that, its their choice.  Its those that claim the RV is possible, that somehow it makes sense, that I disagree with.

You are saying a dime RV is not possible with fiat currency, fractional banking, gold and oil reserves and IMF and WB support?

Is this what you are saying? Let's get to the point here.

[Shelley]

Indeed!

Good for you.

Again if you or Zig do not want to hear what I have to say, there is always the ignore feature.  Let me ask you (or Zig), if my posts are objectionable why keep reading them?

Why keep reading mine....I am lost in RV space....?  I am lost and wandering around waiting for you to save me.....Wait you could be wrong...

Hey Zig,  A lot of new names on DV talking a whole lot of old shiite !!! 

[zigmeister]

Hey Zig,  A lot of new names on DV talking a whole lot of old shiite !!! 

This is true....no more deleting zero's articles to save us from our RV dream......so now they are down to  the nuts and bolts.....how can this happen, and prove it.  Yup same ol, same ol' shite!  Different names and handles, but the old motley crew resurrected...... I would laugh out loud but the camel brought some sailors in and I am all out of tequila   !

[Shelley]

This is true....no more deleting zero's articles to save us from our RV dream......so now they are down to  the nuts and bolts.....how can this happen, and prove it.  Yup same ol, same ol' shite!  Different names and handles, but the old motley crew resurrected...... I would laugh out loud but the camel brought some sailors in and I am all out of tequila   !

Hey I'm free tonight, wake them up ... I'll pick up the tequila on the way LOL

[JJ7]

You are saying a dime RV is not possible with fiat currency,

Fiat currencies with high values are currencies that are in high demand, from countries with strong economies and stable governments. None of those apply to Iraq. Iraq can't even maintain the 1166 rate inside their own country. They can't even convince their own people that its worth 1166 when it's NOT a fiat currency, How on earth could they convince the entire planet it's worth 10 cents? The answer is simple: they can't. No way, no how.

fractional banking

Fractional banking is done by commercial/retail banks. It has nothing to do with central banks and the reserves used to back a currency. Virtually everything written about fractional banking on dinar sites is completely false, information put out there by gurus that are either lying or just ignorant, and then dinarians repeat the lies so many times everyone starts believing them.

gold and oil reserves

They really don't have very much gold reserves. And as far as oil, there isn't a single country on the planet that backs their currency with oil in the ground, and for good reason. If Iraq can do it, why isn't anyone else? Why not Saudi? Or Venezuela?

and IMF and WB support?

Is this what you are saying? Let's get to the point here.

There's no IMF support for increasing the IQDs value by 100x, and never will be, because it would result in Iraq having a ludicrous amount of currency value. It just doesn't make any sense.

[houstonguy]

So SWFG wants to have a debate but no one wants to hear an opposing view. Seems odd to me.

[zigmeister]

Hey I'm free tonight, wake them up ... I'll pick up the tequila on the way LOL

Bring the shriners!

[skeptic1138]

You are saying a dime RV is not possible with fiat currency, fractional banking, gold and oil reserves and IMF and WB support?

Is this what you are saying? Let's get to the point here.

Yes that is what I am saying.  Fiat does not mean "you can set it to anything", it just means the physical currency is representational not valuable itself (e.g. like a gold coin would be).  All currencies today are fiat as far as I know.  The distinction is floating or pegged.  If it floats the central bank can not set the rate as its up to the market and currently the market isn't even supporting 1166 rate as JJ7 points out.  If its pegged than the central bank has to cover it with reserves as they have to meet all exchange requests and Iraq has $75B USD in reserves so at present they are limited to around 1000 to 1 (a bit better than the current rate but not remotely close to 1000x of the current rate).  If you think a currency can be backed by oil in the ground please explain how as I don't see it, nor does any other oil producing country it seems.

[Carrello]

Bring the shriners!

 

I was going to bring the cheese straws and punch but I think someone else got that detail.

 

zigmeister, on 27 May 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

 

Perhaps you might want to enlighten us as to why it is so important to you? Do you have dinar? Did you have dinar? And if you don't why waste your time? If you did and sold it, why waste your time? Or if you do why would you if it is suck a dumb investment?

 

Interesting that you consider trying to help people a waste of time. Says a lot.

 

Be very careful, JJ7.  You are new here, and you are headed for a corner you will never find a way out of.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Carrello

[zigmeister]

Yes that is what I am saying.  Fiat does not mean "you can set it to anything", it just means the physical currency is representational not valuable itself (e.g. like a gold coin would be).  All currencies today are fiat as far as I know.  The distinction is floating or pegged.  If it floats the central bank can not set the rate as its up to the market and currently the market isn't even supporting 1166 rate as JJ7 points out.  If its pegged than the central bank has to cover it with reserves as they have to meet all exchange requests and Iraq has $75B USD in reserves so at present they are limited to around 1000 to 1 (a bit better than the current rate but not remotely close to 1000x of the current rate).  If you think a currency can be backed by oil in the ground please explain how as I don't see it, nor does any other oil producing country it seems.

 

WHERE IS

THE

 

Wealth

of

 

NATIONS?

THE WORLD BANK

Washington, D.C.

Measuring Capital for the 21st Century

http://siteresources...0748034/All.pdf

Energy and Mineral Resources

In this section, the methodology used in the estimation of the value

of nonrenewable resources is described. At least three reasons lie

behind the diffi culties in such calculations. First, the importance of the

inclusion of natural resources in the national accounting systems has been

recognized only in the last decades, and although efforts to broaden the

national accounts are being made, they are mostly limited to international

organizations (such as the UN or the World Bank). Second, there are no

private markets for subsoil resource deposits to convey information on the

value of these stocks. Third, the stock size is defi ned in economic terms—

reserves are “that part of the reserve base which could be economically

extracted or produced at the time of determination”—and, therefore, it is

dependent on the prevalent economic conditions, namely technology and

prices.6

Despite all these diffi culties, dollar values were assigned to the stocks

of the main energy resources (oil, gas, and coal7) and to the stocks of

10 metals and minerals (bauxite, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel,

phosphate rock, silver, tin, and zinc) for all the countries that have

production figures.

 

 

 

Do Changes in Wealth Matter for

the Generation of Well-Being?

Natural resources are special economic goods because they are not

produced. As a consequence, natural resources will yield economic

profi ts—rents—if properly managed. These rents can be an important

source of development fi nance, and countries like Botswana and Malaysia

have successfully used natural resources in this way. There are no

sustainable diamond mines, but there are sustainable diamond-mining

countries. Behind this statement is an assumption that it is possible to

transform one form of wealth—diamonds in the ground—into other

forms of wealth such as buildings, machines, and human capital.

 

i sent it email under title of world bank .. maybe someone read it

Edited by dontlop, 13 May 2013 - 10:34 AM.

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#17 zigmeister

Senior Member

• 
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Posted 13 May 2

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/148518-economist-calls-for-the-adoption-of-the-oil-and-gas-reserve-of-the-central-bank-economist/#ixzz2UXyeLThU

It kind of appears the World Bank says you can.

I was going to bring the cheese straws and punch but I think someone else got that detail.

 

zigmeister, on 27 May 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

 

Perhaps you might want to enlighten us as to why it is so important to you? Do you have dinar? Did you have dinar? And if you don't why waste your time? If you did and sold it, why waste your time? Or if you do why would you if it is suck a dumb investment?

 

 

Be very careful, JJ7.  You are new here, and you are headed for a corner you will never find a way out of.

Yes Cheetos straws.  It will keep them busy!

[Carrello]

Ditto that Caz ten times!  11 posts has definitely been here before, and before that and before that.  I think the story went like this, his Dad bought dinar and lost his savings and then he took it upon himself to save dinarland from dinar in his fathers memory.  He always leaves cheeto crumbs  when he shows up.

Zig, this guy had to come out again...the basement flooded, and it is Doritos, not Cheetos.

 

None of this matters anyway...skitealwedrop will be by any minute to clear everything up.  Maybe the two of them should get together.  I think so.  Perfect match.

 

SWFG, thank you for your honest and intelligent efforts for clarity and information, and many grateful thoughts for your continued dedication to sharing your discovery and understanding of this thing called Dinarland. 

 

And Zig, you are on fire.  Hop on Trixie and I will meet you at Lark Burger.  Make sure her leg is full.

How much you want to bet I can find posts on this forum made within the last week that say the dinar HAS to RV, and that the worst that can happen is you sell and break even? You're wrong, many investors DO NOT know the downside.

And hardly any investors have a realistic grasp on the upside. An RV to even one cent makes no sense and will not happen.

 

Call skitealwedrop 1-800-GOT-TOBEME...you guys are perfect for each other.

[bamagirl]

Oh my goodness, I have died and went to dinarland heaven!!!! Shelley and Carrello bot posting in the same day,I thought you had left us forever...

[Shelley]

Zig, this guy had to come out again...the basement flooded, and it is Doritos, not Cheetos.

 

None of this matters anyway...skitealwedrop will be by any minute to clear everything up.  Maybe the two of them should get together.  I think so.  Perfect match.

 

SWFG, thank you for your honest and intelligent efforts for clarity and information, and many grateful thoughts for your continued dedication to sharing your discovery and understanding of this thing called Dinarland. 

 

And Zig, you are on fire.  Hop on Trixie and I will meet you at Lark Burger.  Make sure her leg is full.

 

Call skitealwedrop 1-800-GOT-TOBEME...you guys are perfect for each other.

Carrello as you always say OLE' or should I really say touche'

[pattyangel]

Carrello, nice to see you.   Always loved your little remarks and your opinions. 

 

Zigmeister, I'm always watching behind the scene and like Carrello said, you are on fire. Keep up the good work. 

 

SWFG, thanks for your research. 

[Shelley]

Oh my goodness, I have died and went to dinarland heaven!!!! Shelley and Carrello bot posting in the same day,I thought you had left us forever...

check your profile, thanks to the DJ I now know how !!!!!

[skeptic1138]

 

WHERE IS

THE

 

Wealth

of

 

NATIONS?

Which said nothing about backing a currency with oil. 

[bamagirl]

I just did and read his post a little earlier, I just might give it another try!!!lol

[Carrello]

Bamagirl, we are still waiting for order BondLady's diamond microphone necklace!  We can't go anywhere.

 

I hope all is well, BG.

[ididitfirst]

i just read six pages. i just can not for the life of me figure out why any one that believes there will never be an rv would stick around. this has been going on for ten years now so i hope the dinar will increase in value sooner than later. i know some people that bought and stuck it out of sight.  i choose to check in here every now and then. if i ever get to where i think that nothing will change, i will get rid of what i have.

[Darin]

Fiat currencies with high values are currencies that are in high demand, from countries with strong economies and stable governments. None of those apply to Iraq. Iraq can't even maintain the 1166 rate inside their own country. They can't even convince their own people that its worth 1166 when it's NOT a fiat currency, How on earth could they convince the entire planet it's worth 10 cents? The answer is simple: they can't. No way, no how.

Fractional banking is done by commercial/retail banks. It has nothing to do with central banks and the reserves used to back a currency. Virtually everything written about fractional banking on dinar sites is completely false, information put out there by gurus that are either lying or just ignorant, and then dinarians repeat the lies so many times everyone starts believing them.

They really don't have very much gold reserves. And as far as oil, there isn't a single country on the planet that backs their currency with oil in the ground, and for good reason. If Iraq can do it, why isn't anyone else? Why not Saudi? Or Venezuela?

There's no IMF support for increasing the IQDs value by 100x, and never will be, because it would result in Iraq having a ludicrous amount of currency value. It just doesn't make any sense.

 

Internal demand doesn't allow for 1166 to be respected. If the currency can become a currency that allow foreign demand, a whole new can of worms is available.

 

Yes that is what I am saying.  Fiat does not mean "you can set it to anything", it just means the physical currency is representational not valuable itself (e.g. like a gold coin would be).  All currencies today are fiat as far as I know.  The distinction is floating or pegged.  If it floats the central bank can not set the rate as its up to the market and currently the market isn't even supporting 1166 rate as JJ7 points out.  If its pegged than the central bank has to cover it with reserves as they have to meet all exchange requests and Iraq has $75B USD in reserves so at present they are limited to around 1000 to 1 (a bit better than the current rate but not remotely close to 1000x of the current rate).  If you think a currency can be backed by oil in the ground please explain how as I don't see it, nor does any other oil producing country it seems.

 

Their value is set by their exchange regime. Their exchange regime is not set in stone, it can change.

An overnight dime R/V? Highly doubtful, making their way there by amending their monetary policies... Probable.

[mad asafrog]

thank you swfg i find your posts enlightening and to go out this step further is fantastic, thanks again

[JJ7]

Internal demand doesn't allow for 1166 to be respected. If the currency can become a currency that allow foreign demand, a whole new can of worms is available.

Why would there be a massive amount of foreign demand for the currency of a third world mess with an unstable government and a third rate economy based on nothing but oil? Does this foreign demand exist for any of the other oil countries? If no, then why would it for Iraq? If yes, then why don't they have trillions and trillions of dollars worth of currency in circulation?

Their value is set by their exchange regime. Their exchange regime is not set in stone, it can change.

An overnight dime R/V? Highly doubtful, making their way there by amending their monetary policies... Probable.

If they amend their monetary policies to include a lop its "probable." Otherwise it's about as far from probable as you can get. In order for their currency to be worth 10 cents they'd have to have an M2 of around 750 billion dinar. Obviously that is not only not probable, it's not POSSIBLE (without a lop). Edited May 28, 2013 by JJ7

[Darin]

Why would there be a massive amount of foreign demand for the currency of a third world mess with an unstable government and a third rate economy based on nothing but oil? Does this foreign demand exist for any of the other oil countries? If no, then why would it for Iraq? If yes, then why don't they have trillions and trillions of dollars worth of currency in circulation?

If they amend their monetary policies to include a lop its "probable." Otherwise it's about as far from probable as you can get. In order for their currency to be worth 10 cents they'd have to have an M2 of around 750 billion dinar. Obviously that is not only not probable, it's not POSSIBLE (without a lop).

Economic growth within the country may allow for other economic sectors, other than oil/gas to allow for higher external demand for dinars to pay for those exports. They may have a lot of oil & gas, but that is not the only thing that they export. As the economy improves, other areas will improve as well which will lead to higher exports. Keep in mind, this is a region that was once heavily known for its agricultural sector.

 

Okay, so if you have a high amount of agricultural goods, previous metals, and other manufacturing facilities exporting to nearby regions, this may allow for a heightened demand for dinars.

 

By the way, your math is wrong. For a $0.10 R/V, they would need roughly 7.5 trillion dollars in foreign cash reserves to back a $0.10 re-value with 100% liquid assets. The 750 billion figure would be necessary for a $0.01 R/V. That is with backing a M2 at 100%. Changing the regime of how the dinar is valued is a possible scenario. Much like prior to 2009, the value was on the rise on a daily basis (little by little). Back than, demand was quite high for dinars internally & externally. Maybe the demand was too high as a lot of dinar may have left the borders of Iraq as that may have concerned the CBI and they wanted to halt speculation.