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my opinion on a few things


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i had one of my classes do a chart on this, and if iraq only had these individual elements that is what there rate could max out at.

i see your point, by adding them up you come out with a very high rate, i would agree that iraqs exchange rate should be around $3.00, however it would be impossible for iraq to come off the starting block that high.

my guess and it is only that is we will see somewhere between $.30-.80, with a slight possibility of it being as high as $1.00.

sorry if i didn't make my self clear, i do not want to be known as one of those pumpers.

thanks

Thanks! You were clear and I surely did not want someone to read my stuff and think and then tell that you said it. You are very knowledgeable and we all appreciate you sharing. I was just probably grasping for a longggg straw. The water is deeeeep over here! Thanks again!

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Thanks nawty1. Good to see you here again. Always love to read your perspective. I believe Iraq is one of the richest countries in the world, with the propensity to have one of the most valuable currencies in the world, but their instability of government and sectarianism appears to be of their demise, as far as an international investment prospective. Is their a weighted value of government stability vs government instability when it comes to investment and would that directly affect the value of a currency?

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exactly a r/d is a completely neutral event, don't get me wrong, there is alot of work-time that goes into a r/d, but it ends up a 100% neutral wash.

all of iraqs actions are leading to a revaluation, once they announced they were buying back dinar for u.s.d that sealed it.

What has been stated is that the CBI buys and sells dinars/dollars. If counting on reducing the money supply in inverse proportion to an RV, then it would have to be reduced by 90% to even RV to 1 penny. The CBI numbers say the supply is increasing and I've seen no news story about "where the heck have all the dinars gone".

anytime a country finds this much gold it is a positive thing, i feel it might not make them revalue higher, but it will make iraqs economic situation alot stronger.

How much is that? The only thing I have seen printed is speculation that this gold find could contribute MORE than oil. But as I posted on that thread, that is not remotely possible as it would be as much gold then the entire rest of the world produces.

with the studies my classes and i have done in the past, we have concluded that if iraq only had:

natural gas the dinar would be worth $1.40-1 u.s.d

gold the dinar would be worth $1.00-1 u.s.d or so.

minerals the dinar would be worth $.65- 1 u.s.d.

and that is before the main ingredient. OIL

The only way you might possibly get to these numbers is if you take the estimated resources in the ground and divide by the total money supply (and even then you'd have to use high estimates of resources and low estimates of they money supply). Too bad that is not how currency works. Even then, to do the exercise of "what if" that was the way currency was valued, you would have to do the same thing for dollars (and yuan and...) to make the comparison have any meaning. Edited by dvforumuser
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i had one of my classes do a chart on this, and if iraq only had these individual elements that is what there rate could max out at.

i see your point, by adding them up you come out with a very high rate, i would agree that iraqs exchange rate should be around $3.00, however it would be impossible for iraq to come off the starting block that high.

my guess and it is only that is we will see somewhere between $.30-.80, with a slight possibility of it being as high as $1.00.

sorry if i didn't make my self clear, i do not want to be known as one of those pumpers.

thanks

CBI is actively removing 000 notes and has been for months. The plan has always been to remove them prior to the RV. We are very close. The HCL, ministers seated, CH7 will all happen in rapid succession. RV rate will be $3.52-$3.54 to open. Not my opinion, but just what I have heard.

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lets hope they do vote on monday, i do not feel that the budget passing will be followed immediately with the revalue, but the budget does pertain to all things financial

i do feel that the budget will spark the hcl, if you think about it, the numbers of the budget are from all oil money, and the hcl is about oil money.

if the kurds agree to the budget, then in retrospect they agree to the hcl, the % allocated to them through the budget will be the same allocated to them through the hcl, so i feel the budget is huge for that reason.

i am sure it is posted on here somewhere, but a few months back the imf had disapproved of the budget, and iraq had to make corrections, it is good to know that iraq and the imf are on the same page.

the imf will have a greater impact on the revalue than some may think, the imf and world bank sent agricultural teams over to iraq in 2009 to survey the land so to speak, they assessed ground totals (oil-natural gas-minerals-gold). i am sure that iraq's new exchange will come from these studies.

i was reading on here that iraq was-is going to follow turkey, well i can assure you from an economic stand point that will not happen, the two situations are night and day, turkey was set back 3-4 years economically, and in the economic world it is known as a disaster.

iraq is doing a great job of reducing street dinar, if they were going to r/d this step would not be needed, what they are currently doing now is "lifting the zero's" off of the street, it in iraqs situation is the smartest thing they could do.

we are alot further along than what the iraqi news is letting on, the "lifting the zero's" step started 8-10 months ago, and in my belief there is only 4-6 or 7 trillion in dinar in circulation, well over 100 billion in foreign reserves, and roughly 35-40 trillion in dinar in cbi's vault.

i had one of my classes do a chart on this, and if iraq only had these individual elements that is what there rate could max out at.

i see your point, by adding them up you come out with a very high rate, i would agree that iraqs exchange rate should be around $3.00, however it would be impossible for iraq to come off the starting block that high.

my guess and it is only that is we will see somewhere between $.30-.80, with a slight possibility of it being as high as $1.00.

sorry if i didn't make my self clear, i do not want to be known as one of those pumpers.

thanks

My take on this is it WILL be worth this total amount that the class came up with. But we are looking into the future about 5 to 10 years after the RV. I like your range Sir for the initial amount. Love the analysis, thank-you. ;):D:)

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What has been stated is that the CBI buys and sells dinars/dollars. If counting on reducing the money supply in inverse proportion to an RV, then it would have to be reduced by 90% to even RV to 1 penny. The CBI numbers say the supply is increasing and I've seen no news story about "where the heck have all the dinars gone".

How much is that? The only thing I have seen printed is speculation that this gold find could contribute MORE than oil. But as I posted on that thread, that is not remotely possible as it would be as much gold then the entire rest of the world produces.

The only way you might possibly get to these numbers is if you take the estimated resources in the ground and divide by the total money supply (and even then you'd have to use high estimates of resources and low estimates of they money supply). Too bad that is not how currency works. Even then, to do the exercise of "what if" that was the way currency was valued, you would have to do the same thing for dollars (and yuan and...) to make the comparison have any meaning.

Dvforumuser, you have an adamant stance towards nasty1's comments, apparent in your questions and comments. We know that nawty1 is an economics professor and a graduate of Berkley. Would you mind letting us know what your background is, through personal interest, education, or profession. Thank you.

Edited by Carrello
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What has been stated is that the CBI buys and sells dinars/dollars. If counting on reducing the money supply in inverse proportion to an RV, then it would have to be reduced by 90% to even RV to 1 penny. The CBI numbers say the supply is increasing and I've seen no news story about "where the heck have all the dinars gone".

How much is that? The only thing I have seen printed is speculation that this gold find could contribute MORE than oil. But as I posted on that thread, that is not remotely possible as it would be as much gold then the entire rest of the world produces.

The only way you might possibly get to these numbers is if you take the estimated resources in the ground and divide by the total money supply (and even then you'd have to use high estimates of resources and low estimates of they money supply). Too bad that is not how currency works. Even then, to do the exercise of "what if" that was the way currency was valued, you would have to do the same thing for dollars (and yuan and...) to make the comparison have any meaning.

BRILLIANT!!!

But then again dvforumuser is simply using economic and historical logic; not to mention basic math. The Dinarian world has indeed created their own world outside of the real world in order to create this illusion of impending overnight riches.

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Nawty1 smile.gif Again Thank You for you becoming a member of our site, most of us are pretty nice people here and do a lot of hard work trying to figure out where we are at with this investment. Many here also care very much about Iraq's people and their success in becoming the strongest country in the Middle East. Your input is positive and valued here because you clearly have a knowledge base that was recognized right away.

That said.. I would humbly like to ask you what your opinion is about the lower denominations? Do you believe they are already printed and/or minted with the Kurdish language on them? Do you believe they are ready to be distributed? (Did Parliament secretly vote on the printing, or did they really even need to?) What is your take on Shabibi's announcement about releasing them last June? Were the lower denoms ready then?

Also, do you think the merchants and banks are ready to handle the electronic aspect of smart cards "point of sales" (by being joined together in one system), the ATMS ect. ?

I Thank You in advance for your time and your kind reply,

Maggie

PS. Carrello I know you didn't mean to say "Nasty1's" laugh.gif Must of been a Freudian Slip towards dvforumuser. GOOD JOB!

Edited by Maggie123
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Dvforumuser, you have an adamant stance towards Nawty1's comments, apparent in your questions and comments. We know that nawty1 is an economics professor and a graduate of Berkley. Would you mind letting us know what your background is, through personal interest, education, or profession. Thank you.

I'm a computer engineer. I'm pretty good at math. If Nawty1 is an economics professor, than (in my view) that provides an even greater responsibility to support his assertions since he has the background to do it. I don't think they stand up to a little basic scrutiny as I posted. I'd be most eager to see his explanation. Its nothing personal of course. Academia is a rough and tumble world where no one, regardless of degrees, gets a free pass so Nawty1 should be used to the process. Edited by dvforumuser
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CBI is actively removing 000 notes and has been for months. The plan has always been to remove them prior to the RV. We are very close. The HCL, ministers seated, CH7 will all happen in rapid succession. RV rate will be $3.52-$3.54 to open. Not my opinion, but just what I have heard.

Why would you believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're buying dinar with USD, and NOT believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're just recycling the dinar back into the economy and that the amount in circulation is NOT decreasing? What is your rational for believing one statement by the CBI, and not believing the other?

We KNOW for a FACT that the CBI is recycling the dinar back into the economy because if you add up all the auctions it is more than the total amount that exists.

Dvforumuser, you have an adamant stance towards nasty1's comments, apparent in your questions and comments. We know that nawty1 is an economics professor and a graduate of Berkley. Would you mind letting us know what your background is, through personal interest, education, or profession. Thank you.

Where is he a professor at?

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DJ, Blue Collar, can you guys fill that out a little for me? They're looking at a 117 T IQD = 100B USD budget. That's a bit in the red using 2011 numbers but 2012 should see more oil being pumped so it should balance out. If that shows anything RV related, doesn't it show support for the current exchange rate remaining in place through 2012? i.e. so the budget numbers remain valid?

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Why would you believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're buying dinar with USD, and NOT believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're just recycling the dinar back into the economy and that the amount in circulation is NOT decreasing? What is your rational for believing one statement by the CBI, and not believing the other?

We KNOW for a FACT that the CBI is recycling the dinar back into the economy because if you add up all the auctions it is more than the total amount that exists.

Where is he a professor at?

FACT, the only thing you know for sure is exactly what the CBI wants you to know and nothing more. FACT, the number of IQD in circulation is fluid due to worn and soiled bills being removed daily, others being destroyed by fires, floods, etc. and new bills being introduced daily. Rational? You assume I believe some statements from the CBI and not others. In reality, I don't believe any statements from the CBI or any other central bank or the federal reserve. The numbers that they report are nothing more then numbers on a page to make the average citizen believe that the fiat money we use is actually worth more then the paper it is printed on. This appears to be working since the majority here believe the financials at face value. Fact is that until several months ago the CBI was both buying and selling USD's in an effort to stabilize the IQD. However, they have switched over to only selling USD in an effort to remove as much of the IQD from circulation as they can prior to revaluing their currency.

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Why would you believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're buying dinar with USD, and NOT believe the CBIs financial statements that say they're just recycling the dinar back into the economy and that the amount in circulation is NOT decreasing? What is your rational for believing one statement by the CBI, and not believing the other?

We KNOW for a FACT that the CBI is recycling the dinar back into the economy because if you add up all the auctions it is more than the total amount that exists.

Where is he a professor at?

As I stated in my post, "nawty1 is an economics professor..."

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FACT, the only thing you know for sure is exactly what the CBI wants you to know and nothing more. FACT, the number of IQD in circulation is fluid due to worn and soiled bills being removed daily, others being destroyed by fires, floods, etc. and new bills being introduced daily. Rational? You assume I believe some statements from the CBI and not others. In reality, I don't believe any statements from the CBI or any other central bank or the federal reserve. The numbers that they report are nothing more then numbers on a page to make the average citizen believe that the fiat money we use is actually worth more then the paper it is printed on. This appears to be working since the majority here believe the financials at face value. Fact is that until several months ago the CBI was both buying and selling USD's in an effort to stabilize the IQD. However, they have switched over to only selling USD in an effort to remove as much of the IQD from circulation as they can prior to revaluing their currency.

How do you know that since you can't believe what the CBI says?

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