Members discussion thread for the Debate: Lop vs No Lop, Sonny1 and jmw

[Bumper64]

At this point I just want this roller coaster ride from he11 to end!!

RV,RI,RD,L O P or any other way they can come up with!!

We have NO control over what will happen so just do the darn thing already!!!

[acceb75]

I agree. Just as long as I don't lose money I will be happy and glad to get off this freakin' ride!

[jg167]

THe problem with Sonny's "but how can Iraq with so much oil and natural gas have an exchange rate so much lower than other countries in the region that have even less oil and gas?" is that the country's GDP (how much oil its pumping) and its exchange rate are only 2 terms in the equation. You have to factor in the money supply. Kuwait can pump less and have a high exchange rate due to having a proportionally smaller money supply. Very roughly the value of a currency unit is the value of GDP divided by the number of currency units floating around.

[Dinariana]

There seems to be good arguments for every scenario, although I am leaning toward accepting that a large RV is impossible. I have heard some arguments against a small RV followed by incremental increases over a couple of years, something about it causing a hysterical buy up of dinar, because people would be expecting the next increase. But I think this might work in Iraq's favor, because most of the RVs would be paid for by the subsequent wave of investors. For example,

The dinar RVs to 10 cents. On Monday, Mrs. Black cashes in her dinar.

On Tuesday, Mrs. Brown buys the same amount of dinar, at 10 cents per dinar. She has just paid for the cash in of Mrs. Black.

Later, it RVs again to 50 cents. Mrs. Brown cashes in. Next day, Mrs. Green buys the same amount of dinar at 50 cents, and she has just paid for the cash in of Mrs. Brown.

Of course, as it goes higher, the risk increases of not getting much of a return. Perhaps it RVs to one dollar and stays stable. But it is not a ponzi scheme because the last buyer simply doesn't make a big profit, but they can get their money back, minus spread.

[jg167]

RV,RI,RD,L O P ...

I think we could set those lyrics to the seven dwarves "Hi Ho" tune...

RVeeee RIiii Rdeee or L Oh Peeee da dum da dum da dum hi, ho...

[Jim1cor13]

Nice job guys. That went pretty well considering the difficulty of the format. Thanks for the great effort.

Only two points I would address that weren't completely answered:

#1) Sonny said: is that your response, by the way no country in the history of the world had as much oil as iraq and is pumping 2mbpd and had a negative 1170 as there exchange, see your numbers are great, but this is a situation that has never been.

My own answer: Iran is right next door to Iraq, pumps TWICE as much oil per day as Iraq, with about the same quantity of proven Oil Reserves, and their currency is worth about 9 times LESS than that of Iraq. So it would seem that this argument is pretty much out the window, unless I missed the point somehow.

#2) Sonny said: "the coins dont matter? I hope they have a good semi driver on speed dial so when they go to the supermarket he can come and hump all those coins to get milk and bread at 1170"

My own answer: Once again, the RD/RV scenario is being completely ignored, insisting on using the LOP word instead of accepting that the value would change simultaneously. If they remove the three zeros, and SIMULTANEOUSLY RV, then the value of that One Dinar coin is worth at the very least, 86 cents, and possibly as much as $3 or more, depending on the RV amount. It would no longer be worth only 1170, so obviously there would be no need for a semi to hump the coins.

Hi Legolas

Well stated my friend. I think both handled themselves well and did a good job overall.

There was mutual respect, at least it appeared to me, and that is refreshing.

In any speculation, it is critical to understand, or at least try to understand ALL

aspects so one has preparation for either eventual outcome.

If one decides to ignore the factual details and feels disappointed at an outcome

that is opposed to their "positive" thinking that is based upon denying history and

facts, they have no one but themselves to blame. The problem is that the meaning

of the words "positive" and "negative" here have been so twisted, it is a constant source

of division which to me is simply foolish. We are in this together, the only negative element

in this entire scenario and forum is rumors and lies, and the hype that is finally dying off after all these

years. It is about time and those responsible are finally getting squelched so they can no longer

deceive and manipulate others. To me that is positive! The frauds are being rounded up, unfortunately

it has taken far too long to deal with the dark underbelly and greed of this speculation. Far too many have

been hurt by lies, yet, we will still see them pasted here.

Back to the point...Well done, sonny1 and jmw. jmw, I hope you realize that the

accusations made about you being "negative" are nothing but childish lies. You sir are nothing of the sort.

You have class, and that is hard to come by today. Thank you to both of you for the education and the

mutual respect. At least for me, this is important to maintain unity on this forum.

Thank you Legolas also for your excellent thoughts. I share them with you, and a few others that cannot be

answered unless one attempts to do some creative tinkering with the details. There is a lot we do not know,

but what we DO know has been ignored far too long and cannot simply be tossed aside with a label being

placed upon anyone who deals with it.

All my best to ALL involved!

Jim

---

[Dalite]

I think we could set those lyrics to the seven dwarves "Hi Ho" tune...

RVeeee RIiii Rdeee or L Oh Peeee da dum da dum da dum hi, ho...

Don't let the Rappers beat you to it!

[Legolas]

Hi Legolas

Well stated my friend. I think both handled themselves well and did a good job overall.

There was mutual respect, at least it appeared to me, and that is refreshing.

In any speculation, it is critical to understand, or at least try to understand ALL

aspects so one has preparation for either eventual outcome.

If one decides to ignore the factual details and feels disappointed at an outcome

that is opposed to their "positive" thinking that is based upon denying history and

facts, they have no one but themselves to blame. The problem is that the meaning

of the words "positive" and "negative" here have been so twisted, it is a constant source

of division which to me is simply foolish. We are in this together, the only negative element

in this entire scenario and forum is rumors and lies, and the hype that is finally dying off after all these

years. It is about time and those responsible are finally getting squelched so they can no longer

deceive and manipulate others. To me that is positive! The frauds are being rounded up, unfortunately

it has taken far too long to deal with the dark underbelly and greed of this speculation. Far too many have

been hurt by lies, yet, we will still see them pasted here.

Back to the point...Well done, sonny1 and jmw. jmw, I hope you realize that the

accusations made about you being "negative" are nothing but childish lies. You sir are nothing of the sort.

You have class, and that is hard to come by today. Thank you to both of you for the education and the

mutual respect. At least for me, this is important to maintain unity on this forum.

Thank you Legolas also for your excellent thoughts. I share them with you, and a few others that cannot be

answered unless one attempts to do some creative tinkering with the details. There is a lot we do not know,

but what we DO know has been ignored far too long and cannot simply be tossed aside with a label being

placed upon anyone who deals with it.

All my best to ALL involved!

Jim

---

Thanks Jim, and I completely agree. Hopefully this thread will be permanently "pinned" as recommended reading. I think both sides of the issue have now been explained about as well as they can be, and it's silly to keep doing it over and over again. Today's article regarding the intent to RD is about as well translated as any I've seen to date, and most of the responses I've seen appear to indicate that most people are at least beginning to understand it. It would be nice to be able to believe that they're lying to us, but unless the "stated numbers" of the CBI and IMF are also lies, I think both their intent and the probable outcome is now pretty clear. The question remaining unanswered in my own mind is "when?" If the new currency has already been designed and printed, we could see something soon. If not, it could still be a while. Like Bumper said so eloquently above.....I sure hope it's soon, one way or the other. I've had enough.

[umbertino]

Nice Debate on both parts.

I hope this gives some more info for all to consider.

We are all in this together.

In the end, what affects One, affects All..

Agreed. And it added more info I learned ...So it was very good imho.

[jmw]

Back to the point...Well done, sonny1 and jmw. jmw, I hope you realize that the

accusations made about you being "negative" are nothing but childish lies. You sir are nothing of the sort.

You have class, and that is hard to come by today. Thank you to both of you for the education and the

mutual respect. At least for me, this is important to maintain unity on this forum.

---

Jim...if I was a fraction as eloquent as you are...I'm pretty sure Sonny would have not have made it past one question...I always enjoy reading what you post...I know I left some stuff out (it's hard to respond in a short time frame!)...thanks Legolas for filling in some of it...I hope others will as well...The thing I keep going back to was what Hopefultxn said to me...

if they revalue at 1 to 1....their currency will be worth more than all of the currencies in the world combined...Wow

From a country that can't produce more than 3 mbpd of oil...that has 20% unemployment...and is coming out of years of war...but their currency is going to be worth more than all of the rest of the world combined????

If you let it sink in....you will realize that a RV of that magnitude just isn't going to happen...sorry

Edited August 1, 2011 by jmw

[umbertino]

This debate gave me plenty to think about on both sides of this issue. Just want to say I am very grateful to have a site like this to come to. Education is the key!

It's freakin' evident this is the best site really contributing with posts in general and with debates like this to furthering true knowledge among Members... Which is awesome....

Thank you Adam, jmw and sonny1 .... And many many others, of course who keep giving out generously their expertise and common sense.....I do thank you all .........

Again, as somebody aptly pointed out... We're in this together.So we win or lose together...I'd rather win.....

Edited August 1, 2011 by umbertino

[Dalite]

Jim...if I was a fraction as eloquent as you are...I'm pretty sure Sonny would have not have made it past one question...I always enjoy reading what you post...I know I left some stuff out (it's hard to respond in a short time frame!)...thanks Legolas for filling in some of it...I hope others will as well...The thing I keep going back to was what Hopefultxn said to me...

if they revalue at 1 to 1....their currency will be worth more than all of the currencies in the world combined...Wow

From a country that can't produce more than 3 mbpd of oil...that has 20% unemployment...and is coming out of years of war...but their currency is going to be worth more than all of the rest of the world combined????

If you let it sink in....you will realize that a RV of that magnitude just isn't going to happen...sorry

Jmw,

Great Debate!

You both handled yourselves well, and put a lot of info on the table.

I hope the Debate is pinned, and folks refer back to it often.

Congrats on a job well done...

[Darin]

I think what a lot of people are failing to realize is that there are a couple methods to detract a money supply other than what we refer to as a LOP or a R/V.

A good phrase I read once.. "Not all re-denominations are LOPs, but all LOPs are re-denominations.."

And jmw, if I recall, I posted the link in another lop discussion thread that state that IMF Article VIII refers to monetizing non-liquid assets. The only clarification we needed was what was required in liquid assets. We could assume 10, 15, or 20% but the article does not give clear clarification on that.

I read a lot from Marcus Curtis, and his blogs, and this man is quite knowledgeable. I think he would be a great guy to debate JMW in this... He is a #s guy and has links available too. (No offense to Sonny1). I think Sonny1 is very smart too.

When we look at their monetary base figures... We see HUGE #s, but over 50% of that is tied into bank reserves. Upon any increase in the rate, would it be reasonable to think that the banks would not be required to hold such large figures in their own reserves?

Fractional banking has allow the U.S. money supply to become inflated. In essence, I believe 90+ trillion USD is in existence. With about 2/3s of that overseas.

Going off the top of my head: We can add the government debt, consumer debt, QE1, QE2, and so forth and the #s we find are quite high.

[umbertino]

'Z',

Good evening!

I believe we all have won based upon the wealth of intelligence and information provided by outstanding individuals making up the membership of our, Dinar Vets Site!

Thank you,

GG

Holy words, my Friend..........

And seriously......Another wonderful thing was that ( and you know that's not granted in general) neither one of the 2 opponents started out or said half-way or ended up by stating something on the line of " You scumbag". to their opponent....

I think that's fantastic in itself already.....

Edited August 1, 2011 by umbertino

[goldengoose]

Holy words, my Friend..........

'umbertino',

Good evening to you and I truly believe there are very intelligent members that bring forth a multitude of knowledge to this site. It is amazing to see how one site can bring all of that knowledge to one place.....

You know the old saying...."Birds of a feather, flock together!"

We are all in this together.....it is a pleasure reading your posts as well!

Thank you,

GG

[jmw]

I think what a lot of people are failing to realize is that there are a couple methods to detract a money supply other than what we refer to as a LOP or a R/V.

A good phrase I read once.. "Not all re-denominations are LOPs, but all LOPs are re-denominations.."

And jmw, if I recall, I posted the link in another lop discussion thread that state that IMF Article VIII refers to monetizing non-liquid assets. The only clarification we needed was what was required in liquid assets. We could assume 10, 15, or 20% but the article does not give clear clarification on that.

I read a lot from Marcus Curtis, and his blogs, and this man is quite knowledgeable. I think he would be a great guy to debate JMW in this... He is a #s guy and has links available too. (No offense to Sonny1). I think Sonny1 is very smart too.

When we look at their monetary base figures... We see HUGE #s, but over 50% of that is tied into bank reserves. Upon any increase in the rate, would it be reasonable to think that the banks would not be required to hold such large figures in their own reserves?

Fractional banking has allow the U.S. money supply to become inflated. In essence, I believe 90+ trillion USD is in existence. With about 2/3s of that overseas.

Going off the top of my head: We can add the government debt, consumer debt, QE1, QE2, and so forth and the #s we find are quite high.

Thanks Darin...figured that question was yours....

have you read article VIII?....please point out where it talks about monetizing non-liquid assets...I can't find it anywhere.

50% of their M2 is electronic...in banks....but that does not mean they are held for reserves...it just means they are in banks...the CBI website states they are only required to hold 15% as reserves....if they hold more than that they would have excess liquidity and would not be earning interest on that amount...so it is doubtful that more than 15% is held as reserves at the commercial banks.

Fractional reserve banking does make the money supply grow...but it is not used by central banks to cover the value of their currency...not for Iraq not for anyone....Marcus is really the one that made me start doing more and more research...he is smart...but a lot of his theories are flawed.....I just worry about who he is hanging around with these days.

[Retiredofficer]

Did not view debate but a draw sounds pretty good

[Darin]

Thanks Darin...figured that question was yours....

have you read article VIII?....please point out where it talks about monetizing non-liquid assets...I can't find it anywhere.

50% of their M2 is electronic...in banks....but that does not mean they are held for reserves...it just means they are in banks...the CBI website states they are only required to hold 15% as reserves....if they hold more than that they would have excess liquidity and would not be earning interest on that amount...so it is doubtful that more than 15% is held as reserves at the commercial banks.

Fractional reserve banking does make the money supply grow...but it is not used by central banks to cover the value of their currency...not for Iraq not for anyone....Marcus is really the one that made me start doing more and more research...he is smart...but a lot of his theories are flawed.....I just worry about who he is hanging around with these days.

I have given you the link in another topic. The "search" feature here is hard to use and I don't want to spend the amount of time to find it. But, I know I posted it in a LOP discussion thread on more than 1 time..

Either way, you would have to agree that monetizing non-liquid assets is a possibility. If you were to think that they would be required to hold 100% of foreign liquid assets to back their currency, that would seem rather crazy. They may as well continue using the USD since oil is traded in petro dollars.

I'm going off of CBI financials.

It clearly states held in bank reserves

trying to copy/paste (Jan 2011 figures)

a - Currency outside banks 24,435

b - Bank reserves 27,307

ID Current Account

Overnight ID deposits 1

ID vault cash 2

Hmmm... M1 = 51,838 --- Not much more than A+B

B is Bank Reserves

So, they hold more than 50% in bank reserves.

*Note* 27,307 is in millions. So it is technically over 27 trillion

[keepmwlknfny]

So are we gonna be insanely rich or just make a little change??

[Dalite]

So are we gonna be insanely rich or just make a little change??

Yes...

[keepmwlknfny]

Yes...

Well which one is it??! I need to know if I should go buy some more dinar or throw all mine into the river.........

[Darin]

Well which one is it??! I need to know if I should go buy some more dinar or throw all mine into the river.........

No you won't... But I'll gladly take yours off your hands free of charge.

Remember KeepM, your receiving some bank (kick-backs) from currency dealers.

See, for those that are selling back, if they enter into the coupon code (ucanKEEPM) they receive an additional 10% on selling back their dinars & you get kick-backs.. So, your already making your bank

lol

[DinarChiTown]

I, for one, am a lopster. Sorry to say, but I've been in this almost a year and that is my opinion. Was very hopeful and took many many months to root through the BS and unfortunately, common sense and economics prevail on this investment. Sorry SONNY1, you got your butt kicked on this one! Your rebuttals were "wishful thinking" and offered nothing but weak opinions. JMW offered very detailed research and it's very hard to poke holes in his explanations and view points. Curious on what other members are feeling on this....

Edited August 1, 2011 by DinarChiTown

[Photochic]

So, then we're all just waiting for the opportunity to BREAK EVEN, if we're lucky? We might as well just pack up and go home now. Right?

[Mack0121]

I think that most of us have pretty much made up our minds which side of the fence we are on. While the debate was entertaining there really wasn't anything new put forth by either JMW or sonny1. I appreciate the respectful manner in which the debate was conducted. It would be nice if the same attitude permeated the rest of the board. There is no reason for people to be belittled because of their opinion. The bottom line is no one knows what Iraq will do until it's done. I'm still hoping for a straight up RV and I will keep hoping for one until the day something different happens.