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About jg167

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  • Birthday 10/20/1953

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  1. I didn't say YOU believe its mythical, that's the point. You think it will happen, so why waste time on this site? No one is going to tell you ahead of time and you can't possibly "miss it", so why waste your time here?
  2. Again, no where else but in dinarland. Are you planning to sell prior to your mythical RV? If not then we are YOU here? If it were to happen there is not the slightest possibility that it won't be all over the news. So it must be that you just find the subject interesting and/or the interaction worthwhile in some way. So how is that different?
  3. Why is this question only asked in dinarland? In all my years of investing I have never seen such asked on forums on stocks, bonds, metals, options, commodities, other currencies, etc. You voluntarily read my posts, then complain about doing so. Put me on ignore if you like, but don't complain to me about what you do. I mean come on, that doesn't make any sense does it?
  4. When the RD is in full swing, who will be buying at $900-$1000/M? Would you? Once the RD is going on that will show even the most koolaid addicted that a 1000x return is not possible. So the price is just going to be the official CBI price. But banks not now dealing in IQD are unlikely to start doing so, they will just deal in the new dinar, call them NID. So you will be left with the dealers operating now, assuming they can reverse their current dinar pipeline and send them back to Iraq. But then they will have to make a profit so their buy back price will be substantially less than the official CBI price, likely by about the same amount their buy in price is above it now. So that's going to be say $600. Seems pretty straight forward. Always happy to oblige with pickled neurons! Oh be serious. Yes.
  5. Sure, and for those that are in the black now, I suggest you strongly consider taking at least some of your profit since once the RD is in full swing you won't be able to get anything like the $900-$1000/M you can get now.
  6. It does rather explode the pumper idea that Iraq has been de-dinarized and is running mostly on dollars.
  7. Ok, no argument with any of that.A hedge against investment X would be something that typically would move in the opposite direction with proportional magnitude. For example shorting or buying puts on the S&P500 index would be a hedge against a broad spectrum of long equity positions. In that light I would say the dinar is certainly not a good hedge against inflation of the dollar since at least some inflation of the dollar is pretty certain and how the dinar will go is far more unpredictable (other than any huge overnight move is impossible) and more importantly the two have little correlation. Plus the dinar has to have 40-50% appreciation before most folks would break even, so again a bad hedge to start off that much in the hole.
  8. Why? I see no correlation between GDP growth and currency appreciation. Their exchange rate might go up, but it all depends on their monetary policy. And if you bought in the last year or two (e.g. at $1100/M or so) you are going to need a 40-50% appreciation just to break even. on that alas we are in total agreement.
  9. jg167

    simple math

    Iraq might be a good place to invest, though still a quite risky one. But what evidence is there that the worlds largest investment banks are holding "piles of dinar"? answer: none. You may not be able to, or maybe just refuse to see the impact of a 70T dinar money supply, but I assure you the bankers understand how it makes an overnight 1000x RV impossible, not just unlikely, but impossible. So its "a given", that a country with 1/3 of 1% of global GDP is going to vault to the head of the list?? Wow, what are you smoking and did you bring enough for everyone? Or maybe I accidentally stumbled into the guru-pumper tryout thread. All you need is some secret intel you can't tell anyone about and you're on your way!
  10. On the contrary, there have been numerous studies about the outcome of prayer (typically on patient outcomes in hospitals since that is easily measureable) and none have found any effect at all. If you have a reference for any scientifically valid study showing otherwise, I'd love to see it. This need not stop you from praying for outcomes you would like of course, but lets not spread false information about it.
  11. I don't follow. The value of the country would be their GDP, nothing arbitrary about that, the US is ~15T USD, Iraq is perhaps ~100B USD. The dollar is a floating currency so its value is what ever the rest of the world feels like paying for it. Nothing arbitrary about that either. The Iraqi dinar its pegged, which means the CBI can set the value at whatever they can cover with their reserves. With ~60B USD in reserves and an M2 of ~70T, that is the 0.00086 exchange rate they have now. No, this is just a pumper lie. Check the CBI history page or any of the historical exchange rate sites and you will see that the dinar was at the $3+ level back in 1987, but by 1995 was more than half its current value (i.e. even worse) at 3000 dinars per 1 USD. That was due to Saddam printing them like the mad nutball he was, printing 10s of trillions with no increase in reserves (which he spent of course). Iraq's GDP, barring something like all out civil war, will very likely increase at a very nice rate. But that in no way implies that their currency will also increase as there is little correlation between the two. About a 1000x RV being impossible? No, I am not wrong on that. and peace to you too! (I'll remain adamant about what we know, but there is no reason to get upset at folks, life is too short for that!).
  12. Why don't you summarize how you think Basil III relates to what you claim is possible for an Iraqi RV and this "new global banking system"? What changes will this have?Basil III from what I read imposes stricter capital requirements (say 4% going to 6.5% but is more complex than a single figure), better stress testing, and better rating systems. All that is good and should go a long way to prevent things like mortgage backed securities getting AAA ratings. It will mean banks will be more conservative and take less risk. But what has that got to do with the mythical RV or some new banking system? As far as I can see Basil III has nothing to do with anything in your post. If I am wrong please spell it out. You claim that others "can not wrap their heads around economics" while you completely ignore Iraq's gigantic money supply in claims of an RV. You claim a one world currency is coming, yet what we see in the Eurozone is that a common currency without a common monetary policy results in huge difficulties. Expanding such to the entire world is utter nonsense and claiming it will all be lead by Iraq that comprises less than 1/3 of 1% of global GDP and can't even keep the electricity on is laughable. For those that don't want to wade through the BIS site, the wiki has a summary of the Basil III changes (some of which started in 2011 and continue to be phased in through 2019). Its true that we do not know for sure what WILL happen, but we DO know for sure what can NOT happen. Its like saying no one knows what the weather will be like in San Jose CA tomorrow. That is true, it might have a high of 80, or 81, or 79 or.. But we DO know for sure that tomorrow morning there will not be 3 feet of snow covering all of northern California with a temp of 40 below zero, as that is impossible given the current state of the planet.We don't know for sure that Iraq will RD, they might change their mind and not do what they have been saying they will do. But we do know for sure that a 1000x overnight RV is impossible.
  13. The new dinar that a RD (I really encourage folks to stop using "LOP") will produce will (at least initially) be exchanged for $0.86 USD. Isn't that 1000x higher than the current dinar? Seems like it does just what the CBI claims.
  14. If you read the post then you should understand that the whole point of tariffs is for them to NOT be paid by encouraging people to buy domestic products instead of imported ones.As far as healthcare goes, it is a service that can NOT be provided cost effectively by the private sector since it does not follow the usual supply/demand cost curves of other products and services. The last 50 years of healthcare in this country and the rest of the world overwhelmingly prove this. Its frustrating and annoying since of course we'd like the government to do as little as possible. But, if we want everyone to get decent health care for a reasonable cost (and hence stay healthier which is the big key to keeping costs down), the government has to be the primary player. There just isn't any other way to make it work (at least that any country on the planet has discovered).
  15. The difference is that I (and Doctor robbins) provided clear support for WHY we are right. Easy and Francie just ignored that and claimed we are wrong. If a country with less than 1/3 of 1% of the worlds GDP can have a money supply valued at double the worlds GDP, then please explain how that would work? How can Iraq attain actual value equal to double the value of the entire planet merely due to their saying so? If it works for them then why not the US or the Euro-zone? The point you seem to be missing (after such a well thought out post on tariffs) is that economies are not arbitrary. Economies function due to rough consistency in value. Iraq telling the rest of the world that "we are now valued at more than double all of you combined and hence now own the entire planet" is simply not possible given the nature of economies. If you think otherwise, then please explain it. Merely ignoring it is not an explanation.
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