Kaperoni Chat 11/1/2011 @ 5pm CST in DA Chat Room

[ronscarpa]

Kaperoni Chat 11/1/2011 @ 5pm CST in DA Chat Room

kaperoni: Today’s chat is a continuation in the recent series of events that hopefully will lead up to the revaluation of the New Iraqi Dinar.

kaperoni: As I stated last month, The revaluation is a step (the piece) in the process (a puzzle). A process that in part is directed by the World Bank as they continue to implement and expedite the banking and economic reforms in Iraq.

kaperoni: We learned over the last couple of chats, there are many reforms being implemented since Shabibi stated June 22nd that he was read to “delete the 3 zeros.”

kaperoni: These reforms, include updating the investment law, the securities law, opening of the ISX and tied to the NYSE, custodian banking, Iraqi Forex operations, privatization of state owned businesses, and implementation of tariffs on imports into Iraq to stimulate manufacturing and agriculture within Iraq. This may or may not be all the measures that the GOI, CBI, WB, IMF, UN etc. are lining up prior to the revaluation. We will even see a quote from Maliki himself today at the end of this chat.

kaperoni: So where are we today? I will try to address each of these issues.

kaperoni: The first is the CBI activities pertaining to the dinar…

kaperoni: We know the CBI is continuing their plan to collect the 3 zero dinar…here is proof..

kaperoni: Article

kaperoni: Central Bank: Iraq's economy will grow 9% next year – 10/30/2011

kaperoni: Quote…

kaperoni: “kassum said the Central Bank does not intend to cut interest rates six percent now where this could lead to capital flight.”

kaperoni: As we already know from previous chat, the CBI is using interest rates to encourage customer banking…to deposit dinars in an account. This statement confirms this.

kaperoni: Now we moving into how Iraq is dealing with the issues of corruption, fake notes, etc.

kaperoni: Article…

kaperoni: Our markets and the risk of counterfeit currency ... Mon, 31 Oct 2011

kaperoni: “arises confusion and gossip in the corridors and commercial markets around the spread of counterfeit currency that suffers from dealing within the market without knowing the real origin, what a day passes without the shocking merchants large and small alike when he discovers that some of his papers cash fake and professionally.”

kaperoni: and this quote...

kaperoni: “And when we follow the money through fake dealers in the commercial markets surprised that the source of payment of the debt owed by the staff of the traders, which caused many problems among dealers as mentioned some of the staff confirming that the source of their money is their salaries they receive are being pulled from the banks of course.”

kaperoni: And this article…

kaperoni: Karbala warns private banks of money laundering operations - 29/10/2011

kaperoni: “He added that some of these banks have a lot of problems, contributing to rampant corruption and fraud, noting that in Karbala, a good number of private banks, and dozens of offices, banking and remittances, all working without supervision from the local government, warning banks and offices of money-laundering by some parties that may have involved issues of terrorist or criminal in order to influence the national economy.”

kaperoni: So we can see they continue to work on reducing this problem.

kaperoni: The next is the CBI’s desire for the supporting “investment” piece of the puzzle.

kaperoni: New article…

kaperoni: Central Bank: the European financial crisis has cast a shadow on the national economy on: Sun 10/30/2011 7:15

kaperoni: Quote...

kaperoni: “And Saadoun said in a statement received by the independent press (iba) The unemployment rate is increasing annually due to the number of graduates”

kaperoni: and this quote...

kaperoni: “it is impossible to absorb all the graduates in this way, adding that what is needed today for the treatment of this phenomenon is to build strategic projects large and important, such as investment gas field crutch as it provides thousands of jobs as well as encourage the private sector private credit by providing conditions that encourage investment, then open the door of the financing of projects for young people through soft loans, according to a mechanism agreed between all parties ..”

kaperoni: Clearly, these statements show the CBI is aware of the global issues as well as there issues with unemployment. They state here they want…”conditions that encourage investment” Let’s see how that is coming along….

kaperoni: Next article…

kaperoni: The head of the Liberal: the Iraqi economy will improve after the departure of U.s. troops from Iraq - 26/10/2011

kaperoni: Here are a few quotes…

kaperoni: "shabibi" that the Iraqi economy will improve after the departure of U.s. troops from Iraq.”

kaperoni: "that there are four important things were discussed with the Governor of the Central Bank”

kaperoni: So you can see Shabibi is involved. On October 25th, The House of Representatives with the various Iraqi political blocs and the host central bank governor, "shabibi" This is a great article because it give us some more insight direct from Shabibi on the economic conditions

kaperoni: Here are those four items discussed with quotes….

kaperoni: 1. “first after the occupation and how to restore economic activity through the profits to be provided by the Iraqi economy . Saying was "discussed the possibility of the distribution share of the oil to the Iraqi citizen. Noting "that the governor welcomed this proposal and prepared to cooperate to achieve this important project.”

kaperoni: 2. Adding, "discussed the private banks and retail banking, remittances, and how to adjust and with great regret we received information that there are points of a terrorist group and Saddam's Baath The control of these banks.”

kaperoni: 3. “He said al-araji said the most important matter which has been discussed is to delete the zeros of the Iraqi currency and the pros in this project.”

kaperoni: 4. "the world view to the Iraqi dinar because of the loss of sovereignty would be a diminution of the dinar and the evacuation of troops will raise the value of Iraqi dinar.”

kaperoni: And this last quotes sums up it all up…..

kaperoni: “He explained “were discussing these things because we are at the doors of the liberation of Iraq and return of Iraqi sovereignty,”

kaperoni: Do u all see that? "we are at the doors of the liberation"

kaperoni: It is pretty clear, that the Us troops leaving (or the impression they are leaving) is part of the plan to give confidence to Iraq and the Dinar.

kaperoni: All of this was confirmed in a subsequent article also titled…

kaperoni: House of Representatives will discuss with the Governor of the Central Bank granted a share of the oil resources of the people - 27 October, 2011

kaperoni: Now,

kaperoni: Another article…

kaperoni: Quest for fast processors to avoid the effects of the global financial crisis on the Iraqi economy - 30/10/2011 - 7:44

kaperoni: This article addresses not only Iraq’s reforms, but it acknowledge the global issues….

kaperoni: Quotes...

kaperoni: “He added that« the Iraqi Central Bank is working to provide the processors quickly to avoid financial crises that have emerged in the Eu during the recent period and the deterioration of the value of the euro against the dollar”

kaperoni: “He said the Iraqi Central Bank to address the economic problems require the expansion of activities of tax in the country and make sweeping reforms in the administrative dealings of the General Authority for taxes of the Ministry of Finance.”

kaperoni: This quote is good as it confirms the article the other day about implementing the tariffs in December. If so, it is of my opinion there RV must be prior.kaperoni: The next part is regarding the World Bank Activities with Iraq (putting the other pieces of the puzzle to support the RV)….

kaperoni: Article…

kaperoni: Minister of Industry discusses with the representative of the World Bank to develop the industrial sector in the country Date: Monday, 10/31/2011

kaperoni: Quote...

kaperoni: “minister of Industry and Minerals Ahmed Karbouli with the World Bank representative to Iraq, Helen Maria Baraknl ways to develop the industrial sector in the country.”

kaperoni: This tells us the WB officials are in Iraq right now, helping them progress with these reforms.

kaperoni: Another quote...

kaperoni: “He added that "the policy and directed the Iraqi government requires openness to international companies specialized and sober through the conclusion of partnership agreements with them to achieve the desired goals in the improvement and development of products and enter into new industries to achieve the financial resources and the operation of labor," stressing "setting a specific timetable for achieving those achievements and support from the World Bank. "

kaperoni: And going back to the CBI section, they acknowledge the need to implement these measures to not only help with the industrial side, but help with the employment and labor issues. They mention a “timetable” for these…hmmm wonder when?

kaperoni: Another article and quote…

kaperoni: Deputy: underdevelopment of the banking sector because the evolution of Iraq in the area of investment - Friday 28-10-2011 12: 20 pm

kaperoni: “khalil said: there are many impediments to investment in the country, including lack of appropriate legislation for investment and not to provide "logistics investment map", in addition to vital facilities, calling: providing all requirements of the investment process for the purpose of promoting the country's economy.”

kaperoni: We see another reference here… “lack of appropriate legislation for investment” This piece seems to be what we have heard about many times. And the reason why the WB continues to help Iraq with these reforms.

kaperoni: Now we move on to the next puzzle piece…

kaperoni: This article…

kaperoni: Stock Exchange announces the inclusion of Warka Bank write off of trading monday, 31 October 2011

kaperoni: Quote...

kaperoni: “announced that the Iraqi Stock Exchange, Sunday, for de-listed company Warka Bank in the Iraqi market for securities, after a break from trading for more than six months to raise capital without taking appropriate measures for the resumption of activity.”

kaperoni: and this quote...

kaperoni: “more than one hundred branches in various parts of Iraq”

kaperoni: This is great news…bringing Warka back is just another step in the right direction. Investment, personal banking, etc.. all good news to have these banks functioning prior to the RV

kaperoni: So what picture am I painting here?

kaperoni: All of this is part of the picture. What I am saying here is the RV is and will be a key, but is only a part or a puzzle piece of the Iraqi economy. What the CBI, the WB, the IMF and others are doing is trying to line up the economic activity prior to the RV.

kaperoni: That the banking reforms, the capitalization at the banks, the ISX, and the privatization of state own companies, tariffs all play a part in driving the Iraqi economy away from total dependence on Oil. All of these structural reforms are good news for us. They are moving in the right direction.

kaperoni: I cannot say enough, they are trying to get away from total dependence on Oil.

kaperoni: This last article sums it up IMO…

kaperoni: Maliki calls for change economic laws to accommodate Iraq directed market economy - Tuesday 01 v 2 2011

kaperoni: And the quote…

kaperoni: Al-maliki said that "iraq was an holistic and need to change all legislation and economic laws because they are not adapted to the changes that have occurred in Iraq and go to a market economy,"

kaperoni: We have seen several references now to laws that need to be passed. So IMO, until those laws are, there is no reason to RV the currency as it will not complete the puzzle.

kaperoni: I will finish with this from a recent article covering the demands from Sadr…

kaperoni: Wave Sadrist movement to withdraw from the "national Alliance" - 01/11/2011 13:04

kaperoni: Quote...

kaperoni: “He continued by saying "most of the parliamentary forces paid no heed to the call made by the Liberals to block the extraordinary session in the House. And I think that a quorum will not be completed in next Thursday's meeting, in accordance with current data."

kaperoni: We can take from this quote…

kaperoni: That Sadr is not happy that his demands have not been met. He feels they are not taking him seriously. As well…we learn that there does not appear to be enough parliament members around for a quorum Thursday. So we should not expect that there would be a special parliamentary session during the vacation.

kaperoni: Because of this, and the needs for these economic laws still waiting, I cannot see an RV before they return from break.

kaperoni: Though many wont agree, for various reasons (within Iraq or global), it does not appear to me the RV window is before mid month. If Iraq lines up these reforms and prepares the laws that need passing, and are on schedule…that is a lot of “ifs” ….My window now looks at Nov 20th – the end of Dec. Let’s hope I am wrong and it comes sooner.

kaperoni: Done

[Elixirbaby]

Thanks for bringing over.

Go RV

[AENewman]

My window faces the front yard.....

[Bambino3]

I think most of us are not worried whether an RV happens tonight - this week, month. We are hoping for this year, but more than that, we are hoping that it will actually happen. I think if we could get a definite yes and the rate would be near a one to one, we can tough it out. It is the uncertainty of it happening at all that adds to our angst. Have you looked at what is going on in Europe. I believe it was Spain that had a 54% unemployment rate for people ynder 26. Adding to our debt will not solve anything - just a band aid. It does appear that Iraq is the game changer. Can they hold it together before they start killing each other. Violence is a way of life, but prosperity will give these folks something different to think about.

[ssmith]

Very encouraging, thanks for bringing it over... Makes a lot of good points.. Thanks

[kjwayne]

Makes alot of sence. My birthday is the 25th of November. An RV would be a wonderful gift. .

[powerpager]

Killer Post Kaperoni !!!

[TimS]

Kaperoni is as bad as Okie....when he predicts a time frame that doesn't pan out, he makes an excuse then puts another one out there pumper....pumper....pumper...blah....blah ...blah

[Tropics]

Kaperoni is as bad as Okie....when he predicts a time frame that doesn't pan out, he makes an excuse then puts another one out there pumper....pumper....pumper...blah....blah ...blah

I haven't ever seen Okie bring any articles over to discuss and break them down. Kaperoni says he predicts a window of a certain period "if" they get all this stuff done. Since he is not responsible for passing iraqi law, he is stating his opinion on when an RV could happen if they get all the laws done in time.

[fnbplanet]

Window? It's more like a screen window with that cast of characters over there.

[tilak]

My window faces the front yard.....

My window faces the side of the house

[gakman]

It seems the window is open a lot but nothing flys in.

[krome2ez]

Kaperoni is as bad as Okie....when he predicts a time frame that doesn't pan out, he makes an excuse then puts another one out there pumper....pumper....pumper...blah....blah ...blah

Kap works along side with Bondlady.

They both analyze the news articles and try to provide an opinion based on those facts.

Never has he said "Done! Cash in Monday. Nuff said."

Our own government is twisted.

You can not expect the expected from Iraq.

All anyone can do, is make the best guess possible.

[Butifldrm]

Makes alot of sence. My birthday is the 25th of November. An RV would be a wonderful gift. .

kjwayne, my Birthday is also the 25th, and yes what a wonderful present the RV of the IQD would be.

[Canuklady]

I have a lot of respect for Kaperoni. He breaks down these articles in a clear and consice manner. He explains, if X,Y,Z is done then my timeline is this. Sometimes things don't get done on time, other times (especially when the government is not in session) they seem to get so much done at warp speed. We're all speculating here, no one really knows but a few key people and they aren't talking. Everyone is free to set their own timeline based on the research posted here, contacts they have, or their own independent research.

I have been wrong many times with the rest if them. I was certain it was going to happen on Sep. 15th, then I thought for sure by November 1st. One of these days, someone will be right, and what a great day that will be! The good news is, if you're keeping up with the news lately, especially the recent statements made by the IMF, you can't help but get excited. This thing is going down and soon! Wish I knew when! Wish I knew the rate! Wish I could be a fly On a wall in Dr.Shabibi's office for one afternoon!