Summary of Date / Rate Predictions

[Mr T]

Date & Rate Predictions for the past 5 weeks:

I have reviewed several online forums / chat rooms related to the IQD and have seen many date and rate predictions. I have also seen many statements that either support or reject these predictions. I have also noticed the predictions have become more aggressive over time and the opposition has become more aggressive as well. Since these predictions are most frequently placed in the “Rumors” forums, I don’t place a lot of weight on them, however, I wanted to see if there were any common themes or trends that stood out. A big part of my day-time job is related to statistical analysis and finding “the story” in a given dataset. There is a lot of data here to analyze and although I could have gone further back in history, I felt that it would just lead to diminishing returns and wanted to share what I have found with everyone. Feel free to repost this on your own preferred forum (in the rumors section please, since analysis of rumors should by definition be a rumor itself) so that others may benefit from my efforts. If you want to flag me or give me a negative, knock yourself out…. I have only been invested in the IQD for about 4 months (yes, a relative newbie to these sites), but I have learned a great deal about currency speculation (mostly from the same gurus that make these predictions. I am not a guru, I am an analyst. I have decided to continue reading the rumors for entertainment and the occasional nugget of worthwhile information and watch the news sections with more interest. I also track the CBI, Forex, and a couple of currency rate sites so that I have a real-time feed of actual rate information.

So here is a list (not comprehensive by any stretch of the imagination) of the rates and dates predicted by several gurus, grouped by the guru in chronological order. Down below I have summarized my key take-aways from this data. I also summarized the rate prediction ranges that are shown here as well as the frequency that each guru made a rate prediction. Enjoy!

Day of Week Date Predicted RV Date (No later than) Predicted RV Rate Guru

Wednesday 10/5/2011 12/31/2011 8Ball

Monday 10/17/2011 11/20/2011 8Ball

Wednesday 9/21/2011 0.1 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/5/2011 11/24/2011 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/12/2011 12/31/2011 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/19/2011 11/30/2011 0.1 Adam Montana

Wednesday 9/21/2011 Over 3.00 Bear5642

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 Bear5642

Monday 10/3/2011 11/24/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/5/2011 11/4/2011 Bear5642

Thursday 10/6/2011 11/31/2011 Less than 4.00 Bear5642

Friday 10/7/2011 11/31/2011 Bear5642

Tuesday 10/11/2011 11/3/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/12/2011 11/3/2011 3.62 Bear5642

Saturday 10/15/2011 11/30/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/27/2011 3.22 Bear5642

Friday 10/21/2011 11/7/2011 Bear5642

Sunday 10/23/2011 11/3/2011 Bear5642

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 Bear5642

Monday 9/26/2011 9/29/2011 BGG

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/29/2011 BGG

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/25/2011 BGG

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/28/2011 Bluwolf

Sunday 10/16/2011 10/23/2011 Bluwolf

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/26/2011 Bluwolf

Friday 10/21/2011 1/1/2012 -- Breitling

Sunday 10/23/2011 12/31/2011 0.86 Breitling

Saturday 10/1/2011 1 Brietling

Wednesday 9/21/2011 9/23/2011 Bulldog75

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/28/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/1/2011 Bulldog75

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/1/2011 10/2/2011 Bulldog75

Monday 10/3/2011 10/8/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/6/2011 10/6/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/8/2011 Over 4.40 Bulldog75

Monday 10/10/2011 Over 4.40 Bulldog75

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/14/2011 Bulldog75

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/14/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/15/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/31/2011 Bulldog75

Friday 10/21/2011 10/26/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 10/26/2011 11/4/2011 3 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/16/2011 BWM

Sunday 10/23/2011 10/29/2011 BWM

Monday 10/24/2011 10/31/2011 BWM

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/29/2011 BWM

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/29/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/30/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 9/30/2011 10/5/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Saturday 10/1/2011 10/5/2011 3.50 to 4.00 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 10/7/2011 Over 3.22 zzzzzzzzz

Wednesday 10/26/2011 10/31/2011 3.22 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 9/23/2011 3.63 Eagle Has Landed

Tuesday 9/27/2011 12/31/2011 Frank26

Thursday 10/20/2011 11/24/2011 1 Frank26

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/30/2011 Freeway Bill

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/26/2011 Freeway Bill

Wednesday 9/28/2011 Over 1.00 Freeway Bill

Friday 9/30/2011 8.47 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/3/2011 11/17/2011 Freeway Bill

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/14/2011 8.47 Freeway Bill

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/13/2011 Over 3.00 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/17/2011 10/31/2011 Freeway Bill

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/26/2011 Freeway Bill

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/25/2011 3 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/3/2011 10/6/2011 Ghost

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 Ghost

Friday 10/7/2011 10/7/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Saturday 10/8/2011 10/9/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Sunday 10/9/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Monday 10/10/2011 Probably has happened Jonnywg

Tuesday 10/11/2011 5.96 (not an official rate) Jonnywg

Wednesday 10/12/2011 10/14/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/14/2011 1.00 to 8.00 Jonnywg

Friday 10/14/2011 10/14/2011 Jonnywg

Tuesday 10/18/2011 10/20/2011 Jonnywg

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/19/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/22/2011 Jonnywg

Friday 10/21/2011 10/22/2011 -- Jonnywg

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/22/2011 2 Jonnywg

Monday 10/24/2011 10/29/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 Jonnywg

Tuesday 9/27/2011 12/31/2011 Kaperoni

Sunday 10/23/2011 12/31/2011 Kaperoni

Tuesday 10/25/2011 12/31/2011 0.86 Kaperoni

Sunday 9/25/2011 1 Med

Wednesday 9/28/2011 1 Med

Thursday 9/29/2011 over 3.00 Med

Tuesday 10/4/2011 11/30/2011 Med

Tuesday 10/11/2011 12/31/2011 1 Med

Tuesday 10/18/2011 11/24/2011 Med

Friday 10/21/2011 1 Med

Wednesday 9/21/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Monday 9/26/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/1/2011 OOM

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 OOM

Tuesday 10/4/2011 3.4 OOM

Tuesday 10/11/2011 11/3/2011 OOM

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/31/2011 OOM

Saturday 10/15/2011 10/31/2011 3.43 OOM

Monday 10/17/2011 10/31/2011 OOM

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/23/2011 OOM

Saturday 10/22/2011 11/3/2011 OOM

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 OOM

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/25/2011 1 Phoenix333

Monday 9/26/2011 10/1/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 9/28/2011 10/1/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/20/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 9/21/2011 10/1/2011 Poppy2

Wednesday 10/12/2011 Done on 6/30/2011 Poppy3

Saturday 10/15/2011 Done on 6/30/2011 Poppy3

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/28/2011 Poppy3

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/16/2011 High Purplehelmet300

Monday 10/24/2011 10/29/2011 Purplehelmet300

Sunday 10/2/2011 3.45 Randy Koonce

Thursday 10/27/2011 12/31/2011 Randy Koonce

Monday 10/3/2011 3.4 Ray

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/23/2011 3.50 - 4.40 ScottiG

Sunday 9/25/2011 Probably has happened ScottiG

Monday 9/26/2011 3.50 - 4.40 ScottiG

Friday 9/30/2011 10/2/2011 3.60 - 4.50 ScottiG

Monday 10/3/2011 10/8/2011 ~3.00 ScottiG

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/31/2011 Low rate to High Rate ScottiG

Friday 10/14/2011 12/3/2011 Low rate to High Rate ScottiG

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 ScottiG

Tuesday 10/4/2011 12/4/2011 Steve1

Wednesday 10/5/2011 3.50 to 4.50 Studley

Friday 9/30/2011 10/8/2011 8 TerryK

Saturday 10/8/2011 5.67 to 8.16 TerryK

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/23/2011 TerryK

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 3.43 TerryK

Thursday 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 8.47 Tmoney

Wednesday 9/21/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 9/23/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Saturday 9/24/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Monday 9/26/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 TonyTNT

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/30/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Sunday 10/2/2011 10/3/2011 TonyTNT

Monday 10/3/2011 10/5/2011 3.65 to 8.00 TonyTNT

Wednesday 10/5/2011 10/18/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 10/7/2011 10/8/2011 over 3.00 TonyTNT

Monday 10/10/2011 11/9/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 10/11/2011 1.00 to 5.00 increasing to 8.00 TonyTNT

Monday 10/17/2011 11/3/2011 1 to 8.47 TonyTNT

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/25/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 10/21/2011 10/23/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/29/2011 TonyTNT

General Trends with Date Predictions:

Guru # of Date Predictions Summary of Predictions

TonyTNT 16 Generally within days, lately moved to weeks

Bulldog75 15 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction each week

Jonnywg 12 Within 48 hours or already happened

Bear5642 11 Thought end of Sept. now consistently end of Oct / early Nov

OOM 11 Generally predicts end of current month / early next month

Freeway Bill 8 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

ScottiG 7 Already happened at end of Sept, now into December

Med 6 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

zzzzzzzzz 5 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

Adam Montana 4 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

Phoenix333 4 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

BGG 3 Predicts end of month

Poppy3 4 End of month predictions or already done

TerryK 3 End of week

8Ball 2 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Bluwolf 2 Predicts by end of the week

Breitling 2 End of year

Frank26 2 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Ghost 1 Days away

Kaperoni 1 End of year

Purplehelmet300 1 End of week

Steve1 1 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Tmoney 1 Tomorrow

Prediction Day of Week Summary:

Day of Prediction # of Predictions among all gurus

Monday 19

Tuesday 19

Wednesday 28

Thursday 21

Friday 18

Saturday 10

Sunday 12

I don’t see any huge trend here other than a spike mid-week (Wed, Th.) and decline on the weekend. Sort of coincides with the “must RV on Tues., Wed., Thurs. “ school of thought…

GURU RATE PREDICTION RANGES

Guru Times a Rate Was Predicted Range (USD / IQD)

Adam Montana 2 0.1

Bear5642 4 3.00 - 4.00

Brietling 2 0.86 - 1

Bulldog75 3 3.00 - 4.00

zzzzzzzzz 3 3.22 - 4.00

Eagle Has Landed 1 3.63

Frank 1 1

Freeway Bill 5 1.00 - 8.47

Jonnywg 6 1.00 - 8.00

Kaperoni 1 0.86

Med 4 1.00 - over 3.00

OOM 2 3.43

Phoenix333 1 1

Purplehelmet300 1 High

Randy Koonce 1 3.45

Ray 1 3.4

ScottiG 6 3.00 - 4.50

Studley 1 3.50 - 4.50

TerryK 3 3.43 - 8.16

Tmoney 1 8.47

TonyTNT 4 1.00 - 8.00

Draw your own conclusion about the rate predictions. I think you will probably find a range and corresponding guru that you personally are aligned with. That is just human nature, but my take-away is that there are a couple of realists shown here, they don’t predict rates often and have at least put some analysis behind their prediction. Some are all over the place and typically don’t have any supporting data to back their prediction up, and others just bump what they hear from someone they are aligned with and put it in their own words.

In summary, there are a couple of gurus that are so vague with their predictions (dates and / or rates) that I couldn’t pin it down, so I did not include them here. If date ranges were predicted, I only included the date that was the furthest into the future to keep this as conservative as I could for the guru. Needless to say, most of the gurus have been consistently incorrect with their date predictions (some of the predictions are yet to occur, so we’ll see how those turn out) and only time will tell if any of the rate predictions are accurate. While I hope for the $3 - $5 rate range, I am prepared for break-even. While I hope that the RV has already happened (as a couple of gurus have stated), I am prepared for months or even years to happen. Hang in there everyone, remember this is only money. Don’t sweat the small stuff, and believe me this is the small stuff in life. Don’t forget to live your life to its fullest while you wait for the RV.

Peace

[IchDien]

Extremely impressive analysis here, very well done! I'm glad to be your first +1

You did not indicate what YOUR rate/date predictions were, based on your own analysis...I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

I didn't see Okie or several others here, was that because it was too obviously full of manure to include?

[Alex38]

Nice!

[Mr T]

Thanks IchDien, appreciate the feedback

[IchDien]

Thanks IchDien, appreciate the feedback

You bet! Us analytical minds need to stick together...at least you get pos for yours, lol

[Kimberlye]

Wow, what a lot of work that was. I wish I was an analyst so I could analyze your analysis and come up with some sort of analogy that would help me figure out which guru to analyze so I would finally know the date and rate. I could only come up with: It was Bulldog, on a Wednesday, at end of the year, with the candlestick.

Seriously, thanks for the post. I'm not sure what it means. I'd love to see your analysis for an entire year. Although, I have a feeling that may render the same results; as in all over the board and nobody knows nothing --- yet.

Have a great weekend, Mr. T, and welcome to DV

Kimberlye

[Mr T]

IchDien: I'm not brave enough to make a prediction on this, but I'll share my instincts and thoughts. Based on my personal feelings, I would tend to agree with Adam and Frank26 the most. It looks like the Iraqi government does not have a sense of urgency for the RV (they are not the ones feeling the pain, the citizens and to some extent, the IQD investors are). If this happens by year end, I will be pleasantly surprised but not shocked. As for a rate, my analytical side says that we would be lucky with $0.10 (still a roughly 1,000% increase in our investment which is incredible in anyone's investment dreams). I do believe that over time, the IQD will increase in value (post-RV), but that will take years and will only occur if Iraq remains a stable country. My bank account and retirement fund is screaming for $1 plus, but I try to keep that fantasy contained

IchDien: I know that this is not a comprehensive list, but I do have a fulltime job and thought that spending anymore time on this would not result in a significant change in my take-aways. Also, due to my ignorance on who these gurus are, I actually combined OkieOilMan into the OOM guru group. I thought they were one and the same person since so many people use acronyms / abbreviations for their name. I apologize to all if this is incorrect. This won't change my summary, but I'm sorry if I misrepresented OkieOilMan and/or OOM.

[DinarThug]

I didn't see Okie or several others here, was that because it was too obviously full of manure to include?

His Listing for OOM is Probably Okie Oil Man.

Thx for the Post and the Research Mr T !

If Anybody Believes TerryK's $ 8.00 Rate then "I Pity The Fool" !

:D

[Mr T]

Kimberlye: Thanks for the note. If I were to attempt taking this back a year, I'd probably be committed to a nuthouse. I tend to agree that it probably wouldn't change the key findings though. I also get the feeling that the names may change but the characters remain the same. There is some great analysis coming from some of these gurus and it gives me new perspective on the investment. If you want to analyze a guru, it is best to just read as many of their posts as you can find and listen to your instincts. Most of the time, your gut will tell you whether it is based in reality or fantasy. The fantasy is fun to dream about, but the reality will keep you grounded.

[Kimberlye]

Kimberlye: Thanks for the note. If I were to attempt taking this back a year, I'd probably be committed to a nuthouse. I tend to agree that it probably wouldn't change the key findings though. I also get the feeling that the names may change but the characters remain the same. There is some great analysis coming from some of these gurus and it gives me new perspective on the investment. If you want to analyze a guru, it is best to just read as many of their posts as you can find and listen to your instincts. Most of the time, your gut will tell you whether it is based in reality or fantasy. The fantasy is fun to dream about, but the reality will keep you grounded.

Mr. T, you are a very wise newbie. I've been in this since 2006, so, although I read the guru posts, it is entirely for entertainment.

I look forward to reading your future posts.

Kimberlye

[billio0]

Excellent work my friend. I just love the down-and-dirty facts. They never lie!

Keep up the good work,and don't be so shy in the future. Speak your mind no matter what.

We ARE all in this together, and I share your patience.

[Volqluest]

only God know and he aint telling

[Choppermike]

Well done. Kinda puts things in perspective.

[NWGUY]

Great job on the post!! I like you watch the news also, and read the rumors for entertainment, to release stress from the constant craziness of this investment. This section is always fun to read!

Keep up the good work, and Go RV!!!

[ClermontThinker]

Mr T...

You, my brother, ROCK!!

[So.Cal Dinar]

Could we have Links please, yep for all of it Mr T

Jk,jk,jk LMAO

Really good work +1

[KrispyKreme]

WOW Mr. T

Would you have some time to look at my retirement portfolio.

[Mr T]

So.Cal Dinar: I speak fluent sarcasm as well....

- Links? We don't need no stinkin' links.

- Silly wabbit, Links are for kids.

- To err is human, to Link is divine

- In God we trust, all others must provide Links

- Chuck Norris has the Links, whatcha gonna do now???

- I am the weakest Link in the chain

- and my personal favorite "I pity the fool that questions my Links"

[KrispyKreme]

WOW Mr. T keep the analysis coming.

Would you have some time to look at my retirement portfolio.

Mr. T == you could open up a VIP site or write a book about this investment and make .............!!!

Boy am i going to catch it for that.

[Mr T]

KrispyKreme: First of all, I am currently eating celery for lunch because of you. Only 15lbs more to lose, but man are those donuts incredible (worth every pound).

Secondly, if I was smart enough to plan a retirement portfolio, do you think I would have invested in the IQD? Just kiddin'... I have bought my lottery ticket and am waiting for them to draw the winning numbers. Now, I plan to finish paying off my debt, then put away 6 mths of expenses, then start saving 15% of my income and pay off my mortgage. No magic bullet, just requires discipline and delayed gratification. If you want details, I would recommend you look into Dave Ramsey's program. It ain't sexy, but it has teeth and I only wish I had started following it years ago.

Good luck

[glo]

Thx for the Post and the Research Mr T !

[learning all i can]

who is this masked man?????

btw thx for the post...very interesting

[payout]

kimberlye now thats funny stuff.

[Abarvets]

Welcome aboard. Thanks for the post. That was some great research Mr. T!

[umbertino]

Mr. T.... Thanks.Appreciated.