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Iraq's Exchange Rate - Beyond the 58B Reserve

Heinzy444

By Heinzy444,
in Iraq & Dinar Related News

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Heinzy444 Newbie

Heinzy444

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Some other factors worth noting beyond just the reserve factor.

Please add to the list if you find someing else :)

Factors Affecting Currency Value:

1. Political Conditions in the Country - This includes the stability of the government, the amount of corruption, bribery and the degree of law and order. Also includes a country's relationships with other countries and especially their relationship to US, UK, China and Russia. The form of government in the country is also a factor used to assess the value of a currency. Consider the widely varying forms of government in Saudi Arabia, China, UK, Venezuela and Thailand, just to name a few.

2. Economic Situation - This includes factors such as jobs, unemployment, work ethic, infrastructure, inflation and direction of the economy. Is it older or newer in orientation; computers and high tech, or more farming and manufacturing.

3. Perception from Outside - The perceptions and attitudes of other countries toward a country are as important as the reality of the country's actual situation. News, media, movies, newspapers, rumors and spin can create perceptions. How much is known about a country? The less that is known, generally, the lower the value of a currency.

4. Demographics - A young population may mean better prospects for the future, people who are more open to change and development and a growing size of the workforce. The overall population of a country is a factor. How much weight does this country have on the world scene.

5. National Leaders - The openness, trustworthiness and likeability of visible leaders is a factor. This includes political leaders, sports figures, business owners and celebrities. Here are some national figures who affect their countries, either for better or for worse. Kim Jung Il, David Beckham, Nicole Kidman, Madonna, Osama bin Laden, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin. These help form the world's perception of a country.

6. Isolation versus Openness - Continuum China is becoming more open, more transparent. This helps. Cuba is very closed and isolated. Venezuela is becoming more isolated by some of its recent actions. China's markets are becoming more open. Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Japan, all have differing levels of openness with the outside world, which affects the value of their currency.

7. Natural Resources - The kind of and amount of exploitation of a country's natural resources certainly helps create a perception of value, or lack thereof, of a country's currency. Mining of minerals, forests, oil, fish and other resources are considered. Also the level of technology to development these resources.

8. Weather Factors such as drought, tsunamis, earthquake and floods are taken into consideration. How frequent are they and how is the country's response to them. These also affect desirability, safety and perception of a country. Is it a tourist destination?

9. War and Conflicts - With which other country is a country at war, and who is it's allies? Their military strength and technology, their willingness to go to war and for what, are important factors in assessing a country's strength, stability and the value of its currency.

10 . Education - This includes languages spoken, level of computer know-how, Internet connectedness, culture and religion. Scientists, entrepreneurs, authors and inventors are all affected by the type and quality of education in a country.

In conclusion, currency values are determined by many factors. Not just one issue, but a composite of many must be considered. In trading currencies, such as in FOREX, trades are usually made in pairs. Values must be relative to something. So how is a country doing relative to another country is also significant. Common Forex pairs are US dollar and Japanese yen, Euro and US dollar, for example. These and other factors determine the value of a currency. Some are tangible, some intangible. Some are fixed and some are manageable. Sometimes it is the news of the moment and sometimes the long-term situation. That is why currency values are often changing and there is no one place or person who determines currency values. And why currency exchange, based on fluctuating currency values, can be an exciting, lucrative, volatile, fun or disastrous form of business or investment.

http://ezinearticles.com/?How-are-Currency-Values-Determined?&id=467643

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betsy1949 Apprentice

betsy1949

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Well, they got number 7 down...lol...GO RV!!!~~~

Might be a little off topic, but you were speaking of #7. Speaking of #7, does anyone know just what all natural resources Viet Nam has in relation to what Iraq has, as Adam is expecting to see the dong revalue within the same basic time span as the dinar?

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Heinzy444 Newbie

Heinzy444

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Might be a little off topic, but you were speaking of #7. Speaking of #7, does anyone know just what all natural resources Viet Nam has in relation to what Iraq has, as Adam is expecting to see the dong revalue within the same basic time span as the dinar?

The Dong's a stretch for me ... really can't see it going up much.

Vietnam has oil reserves of 4.7 BB and Iraq in comparison has 147 BB and in recent updates is pushing 190 BB.

http://exploredia.com/oil-reserves-by-country-2011/

http://vietnambusiness.asia/vietnam-natural-resources/

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Nelson0528 Newbie

Nelson0528

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Might be a little off topic, but you were speaking of #7. Speaking of #7, does anyone know just what all natural resources Viet Nam has in relation to what Iraq has, as Adam is expecting to see the dong revalue within the same basic time span as the dinar?

If I remember correctly, the VND was projected to rise in value persuant to the mega-port they are building there to service the far east region. Everyone please feel free to correct me if I'm off base; but, I think that was the primary consideration in expecting the Dong to rise.

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Ridewithme38 Newbie

Ridewithme38

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Yes, all of those things are looked at...But in the end an exchange rate is simply a math equation, M2 vs reserves....the other factors may contribute to weather of not a country is able to move toward a fractional reserve...But Iraq in no way is near being stable enough for the world to trust them with a fractional reserve currency....so for right now and atleast the next 10-15yrs, it will be just a simple math formula with Iraq

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keepmwlknfny Newbie

keepmwlknfny

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Yes, all of those things are looked at...But in the end an exchange rate is simply a math equation, M2 vs reserves....the other factors may contribute to weather of not a country is able to move toward a fractional reserve...But Iraq in no way is near being stable enough for the world to trust them with a fractional reserve currency....so for right now and atleast the next 10-15yrs, it will be just a simple math formula with Iraq

Unfortunately you might be right.....

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Darin Newbie

Darin

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laugh.giflaugh.gif Too bad all that Iraq has working for them right now is the resources!!

Oh, give them more credit than that!

My report card on them:

1) Very poor.... But looks to slowly be improving (looking from a point of view as seeing the bigger picture).

2) Very poor.... But looks to be improving.. Growth is slow, maybe could use a little stimulus bump?

3) Poor............ Negative perception due to war & terrorism, however, lots of inking of deals as of recently. U.S. presence has helped increase positive perception.

4) Average...... A young population which is likely to increase their population significantly within the next 10 years.

5) Average...... Start of a democracy, hitting a few bumps, but leaders such as Shabbs are highly respected.

6) Average & improving.... Lots of trade with neighbors, deals with big power houses, etc. & so forth

7) Above Average (Should nearly be irrefutable)

8) Average... Droughts & sandstorms are really the main concerns.. Excessive summer heats, but any country in that region may witness that.

9) Poor.... Coming off the remnants of a war, and issues with select groups and their neighbors... Slight concern while should be monitored

10) Believe it or not, I have heard many are well educated... They lack schools however that likely need to be rebuilt.

Each group is improving.. Maybe slowly, and some fasters than others. But I wouldn't say that natural resources is the only thing they got going for them.

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Heinzy444 Newbie

Heinzy444

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Yes, all of those things are looked at...But in the end an exchange rate is simply a math equation, M2 vs reserves....the other factors may contribute to weather of not a country is able to move toward a fractional reserve...But Iraq in no way is near being stable enough for the world to trust them with a fractional reserve currency....so for right now and atleast the next 10-15yrs, it will be just a simple math formula with Iraq

"the other factors may contribute to weather of not" I presume you mean "whether or not" - although we have "weathered" quite a storm in the last 8 + - years :) - It's beyond a simple math equation, Iraq is writing a whole new text book here. I certainly appreciate a good debate though. All the best.

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truthful1 Newbie

truthful1

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Iraq is at a breaking point. they are by far one of the most volatile countries on the planet. maliki trying to topple shabibi, trying to banish allawi, the kurds are pissed. the political environment is close to complete destruction. despite having made supposed agreements. they still have not cemented any of those agreements into law. with the us leaving they could be back at. war any day now. there is no progress, at leasr not any to be agreed upon by your favorite iraqi officials.

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Darin Newbie

Darin

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Who told you? Was it Darin?

I'm gonna have to disable his personal buy back code for lettin my secret out!!!

Well, if I didn't have to meet you in person to use my personal buy back code, I wouldn't know these secrets...

And why is it we meet in dark alley ways?? Not going to lie, the confrontations are starting to creep me out..

LOL

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R Veyron Newbie

R Veyron

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Good insight and just as you could do an appraisal on a piece of real estate you can also use many of the same methods in determining the value of a country as well. Different variables are considered and methods employed to arrive at a particular opinion of value. The value of Iraqs economy looks very good as well as the potential of their currency.It looks like they are headed in a positive direction.

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keepmwlknfny Newbie

keepmwlknfny

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Well, if I didn't have to meet you in person to use my personal buy back code, I wouldn't know these secrets...

And why is it we meet in dark alley ways?? Not going to lie, the confrontations are starting to creep me out..

LOL

LOL.....its cause if BMW found out I was also workin with the dealers here and the smugglers in Iraq, they might ship me over to the dealership they just opened over there to hoard more dinar for the company LOL

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Darin Newbie

Darin

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LOL.....its cause if BMW found out I was also workin with the dealers here and the smugglers in Iraq, they might ship me over to the dealership they just opened over there to hoard more dinar for the company LOL

From dealer agent to dinar mule.... I hear the pay isn't that great, but they got great dental! Right?

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Heinzy444 Newbie

Heinzy444

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Good insight and just as you could do an appraisal on a piece of real estate you can also use many of the same methods in determining the value of a country as well. Different variables are considered and methods employed to arrive at a particular opinion of value. The value of Iraqs economy looks very good as well as the potential of their currency.It looks like they are headed in a positive direction.

Yes, as a former RE Agent - Location Location Location ...as in, how about floating on 140+ Billion Barrels of Oil & Mind Boggling Natural Gas reservies and water.... two fresh water Rivers, Water becoming as important as oil lately - Tigris & Euphrates, I could go on :)

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