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NO RV Until all the unrest is setteled


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Hi,

Regardless of what anyone is saying people should forget about the RV since the ARAB world is on fire and there is uncertainty as to what would happen with the regimes in that area. We have seen unrest in Iran and as I have writeen before Iran's influence over Iraq is greater than anybody thinks or mentions so as long as we see unrest in the middle east no RV. Wether you like it or not I am a realist and don't BS! Be well and stay real.

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Hi,

Regardless of what anyone is saying people should forget about the RV since the ARAB world is on fire and there is uncertainty as to what would happen with the regimes in that area. We have seen unrest in Iran and as I have writeen before Iran's influence over Iraq is greater than anybody thinks or mentions so as long as we see unrest in the middle east no RV. Wether you like it or not I am a realist and don't BS! Be well and stay real.

If your a "Realist" That actually believes the ME will be calm and all peachy one day so this will RV.? My advice would be to Reboot and go to safe mode with your thought process, Its not working. There will ALWAYS be some sort of discontent/mistrust/snubbing of all the different ME countries due in most part to religion. These people are not happy unless they have something/ANY thing to Beiotch about and feel they "Got the best deal" from even the smallest of issues...............IMO............ :rolleyes:

Edited by Helicopter Barry
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First of all I never said it would never happen you guys have your head in the sand. I am from that part of the world and I probably understand the culture better than anyone here. So far everything I have said has been true and as far as I know this will happen when conditions are ripe, and as for the comment as to the middle east being always on fire it is somewhat true but what we are seeing now the events that are taking place are unprcedented where regimes are being overthrown. History is being made and there won't be any movement until there is stability in the region as far as goverments go. Also Since everyone knows that there has been unrest in this part of the world that should be a red flag for everyone because this means that the political situation is not stable enough for an RV. You guys are basing your assumption on things that seem to be logical info but as you have all said in your replies this region is unpredictable so all the logical info you rely on is bunch of bull! This region is a region of uncertainty and logic does not play any role in it wether we like it or not that is the truth so you may come up with a logical explanation as to why an RV should happen but if the region is a complicated region all your logic is worth nothing. What I am trying to say is that we have heard numerous LOGICAL explanation why an RV should happen at this date and for this amount and it never happened. I am not a pessimistic person but so far what my logic is telling me which has been more accurate than your so called gurus. People must understand that what is happening in that region espeicially Iran has tremendous effect on everything that goes on and any distruption would casue a delay in the RV. You might not like my opinion and bash but remember I will always be the voice of truth and honesty and sorry if a burst anybodys bubble. be well and stay real.

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Hi,

Regardless of what anyone is saying people should forget about the RV since the ARAB world is on fire and there is uncertainty as to what would happen with the regimes in that area. We have seen unrest in Iran and as I have writeen before Iran's influence over Iraq is greater than anybody thinks or mentions so as long as we see unrest in the middle east no RV. Wether you like it or not I am a realist and don't BS! Be well and stay real.

As spoken from "the crystal ball" in the movie.."The Wizzard Of OZ"...an insiders view...follow the yellow brick road...follow..follow..follow

We're off to see the...

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Number one you are not from that part of the world anymore then I am. This insightful knowledge of yours is for argumentative purposes only. The middle east is not in control of the ultimate outcome of the RV. Who owns CBI? IMF? UN? Do the research & forget conspiracy theories. Do the investigation. If you are so darn insightful & bright then waste the time to educate yourself. The site doesn't need bs artists just truthful sharing.

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There were two very powerful events taking place in the late 70's and early 80's in that region. Iran was experiencing civil unrest that led to a overthrow of their government and a little further east Afghanistan was attempting to fend off the Russians. The rest of that region remained fairly stable. So to say that nothing can be done because unrest in Iran, with other major events won't allow for any stability is not exactly true. As everyone has said logic may not apply here, it would equally impact both sides of this argument. There are no rights and wrongs here, other than some of the sewage that flies out of the mouths of the usual suspects, so let opinions be opinions because that is all they are. No one from the region or outside of the region can say with much certainty what might happen, we can just look at the past and try to predict the possible outcomes. I believe that unrest in one ME country prompts others in this region to tighten up their issues and try to preempt or at least lessen their unrest.

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I am quite amazed on how many people have their own perception & speculative opinion on something and follow up as they "KNOW" they are right only when in reality they are believing they are right.

How would we know WHEN or IF Iraq will RV... Just because certain circumstances need to be met?

I recall, that the 3.22 rate was something set by S. Hussein, and not something reccomended by an IMF/WB, etc. In fact, from my understanding it was not even recognized that way.

Therefore, we view that as a in-country RV.

Guess what, if the country does an in-country RV, we still benefit.. Dealers would be able to help us exchange....

Therefore, I firmly believe it really can happen at any time..

But aside from that, I think Iraq is only worrying about Iraq not their surrounding countries...

They maybe think about Kuwait, and how they want to be removed from Ch. 7...

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nir is not really saying anything different from what Adam Montana said in his last email, that the turmoil in Egypt has put things on hold for now and when things calm down in that region we should see some movement. That could happen by the end of the month. No biggie.

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I am quite amazed on how many people have their own perception & speculative opinion on something and follow up as they "KNOW" they are right only when in reality they are believing they are right.

How would we know WHEN or IF Iraq will RV... Just because certain circumstances need to be met?

I recall, that the 3.22 rate was something set by S. Hussein, and not something reccomended by an IMF/WB, etc. In fact, from my understanding it was not even recognized that way.

Therefore, we view that as a in-country RV.

Guess what, if the country does an in-country RV, we still benefit.. Dealers would be able to help us exchange....

Therefore, I firmly believe it really can happen at any time..

But aside from that, I think Iraq is only worrying about Iraq not their surrounding countries...

They maybe think about Kuwait, and how they want to be removed from Ch. 7...

I agree with the Kuwait issue.

If all they have to do is say they are changing the rate, and it's changed, they can do it whenever they want. I hope for sooner rather than later. But I don't depend on it.

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When is the mid-east not on fire? If this is your opinion sell your IQD because by this logic, it will NEVER RV.

Don't dismiss this possiblity. It is reasonable to believe it won't RV, at least not the way people are predicting. In my opinion, there are several reasons why it won't RV. The unrest in the Mideast is one of the them (although not the most worrisome one). Even if you disagree with the sentiment that it will never RV, you can't dismiss the notion out of hand. The grand assumption has always been that it will RV. But that is a grand assumption indeed. It is not an illogical thought. In fact, I'm of the opinion that each passing day REDUCES the likelihood of a sudden, high rate RV and INCREASES the likelihood of a quiet, unassuming presentation on the foreign currency exchange markets at a similar rate to what it trades for now. Obviously, time will tell. I know it's not a pleasant thought, but don't be surprised, however, if the dinar NEVER revalues for a higher exchange rate.

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Don't dismiss this possiblity. It is reasonable to believe it won't RV, at least not the way people are predicting. In my opinion, there are several reasons why it won't RV. The unrest in the Mideast is one of the them (although not the most worrisome one). Even if you disagree with the sentiment that it will never RV, you can't dismiss the notion out of hand. The grand assumption has always been that it will RV. But that is a grand assumption indeed. It is not an illogical thought. In fact, I'm of the opinion that each passing day REDUCES the likelihood of a sudden, high rate RV and INCREASES the likelihood of a quiet, unassuming presentation on the foreign currency exchange markets at a similar rate to what it trades for now. Obviously, time will tell. I know it's not a pleasant thought, but don't be surprised, however, if the dinar NEVER revalues for a higher exchange rate.

Shabibi has stated several times that he intends to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar. It is true that the rate might not jump suddenly to a much higher rate, but the rate will at some point rise. If they are able to accomplish their goals of pumping 12 million bpd in the next 6 to 10 years, the rate won't stay at 1170.

Edited by deenar
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Hi,

Regardless of what anyone is saying people should forget about the RV since the ARAB world is on fire and there is uncertainty as to what would happen with the regimes in that area. We have seen unrest in Iran and as I have writeen before Iran's influence over Iraq is greater than anybody thinks or mentions so as long as we see unrest in the middle east no RV. Wether you like it or not I am a realist and don't BS! Be well and stay real.

Thank you nir for your thoughts. :)

I remember your background in

banking and that you are very familiar with middle east affairs

and if I recall correctly, you are of middle eastern descent. That gives you

a much greater understanding than most in this area, so I wanted to remind

others before they jump on you, that you do actually know what you are talking

about in this particular matter.

I also understand that the current situation is not about the typical tensions

that are resident within the Arab world, but the *current* unrest and uprisings

happening in many countries. It is true that Iran holds much sway over Iraq that is

denied by many. I respect your view because you are genuinely aware of many of the

factors and problems that are growing and certainly will have effects and are having effects

on what we are all waiting for.

Thank you for your no nonsense details and I agree with your summation and will add that

those who are still riding the thought that Iraq *must* revalue NOW or they are being "pressured"

as some wrongly conclude, they are missing the point and catering to their own desire and not according

to this current reality. Yes, I do appreciate your statement "Be well and stay real".

Unfortunately, this is difficult with so much of todays news and jargon, but it is wise advice certainly. We do have

a ways to go yet, probably longer than most want to hear, but we are also that much closer to seeing these

issues slowly worked out. The response of many people in the middle eastern countries come from a long

frustration of being mistreated and many kept at poverty levels while their respective governments continue to

steal and pillage the citizens wealth.

Much of this is NOW going on within the U.S. in a way that would scare most people if the truth were actually told. But one

will not hear of the *true* condition of our country because too many have the blinders on and choose to live in denial. They

also keep thinking that that somehow the revaluation of the IQD will solve the problems of the economies of the world.

This is both false and illogical when one actually weighs the actual amount of global debt, let alone the total true debt of the

United States, which by the way we are becoming LESS united by the day unfortunately. I will not go into conspiracy theories

of how we got to the place we are at now. None are necessary because we have only ourselves and federal mismanagement

to blame over a period of the last 40 years or so, and now we slowly are becoming aware of the fruit of these actions that are

just NOW coming to fruition over the last 10 years. Much of the problem lies within our financial structure and also the outright

theft and criminal activity of our very own wall street that is still selling junk paper and it has actually grown worse over the last

3 years, not better.

So there are many factors too lengthy to go into, that are weighing against all we would like to see happen at this time. I am very

hopeful some of these factors WILL indeed be resolved, but many will not be without some kind of actual conflict which sadly

appears to be around the corner in many locations, especially in middle east affairs.

Until we understand these matters, and accept this reality, we will continue to swallow far too much bogus information that

keeps making its rounds, instead of dealing with facts. Thank you nir for sticking with the facts and I know you are just as

hopeful as the rest of us here, but you are stating what you understand is going on. I see for this you also have a lot of negative

feedbacks which shows the frame of mind too many are living in. Few want to hear what you have alluded to, that is their choice.

I would rather deal with someone that actually understands the train of thought and current events within middle eastern affairs than to

read wishful thinking or hype from a handful of 'gurus'.

I appreciate your efforts to present what you understand to be happening. :)

All my best to you and it was good to see you post! :)

Jim

---

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Shabibi has stated several times that he intends to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar. It is true that the rate might not jump suddenly to a much higher rate, but the rate will at some point rise. If they are able to accomplish their goals of pumping 12 million bpd in the next 6 to 10 years, the rate won't stay at 1170.

I hope you're right. Unfortunately, one person does not have the power to determine the rate. It will ultimately be determined by the market. If productivity does not improve, the exchange rate will not improve. If political stability does not improve, the exchange rate will not improve. If corruption and graft continue to dominate, the exchange rate will not improve. If the money supply keeps expanding faster than productivity, the rate will not improve. Shabbibi may have good intentions or he may be a lying gov't official trying to placate or influence the public. Either way, he will not ultimately control the exchange rate. He can keep the currency off the market (which he has done so far) but, once it hits the exchange markets, his influence is over. He can do nothing to keep the market from determining the correct rate.

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