Saturday Lunchtime Opinions - 12:45 PM MDT - 1/20/2024

[ronscarpa]

REMEMBER, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... So, take everything with a grain of salt ...  RON 

 

 

Militia Man  Sudani...I think he's right when he says 2024 is going to be a year of achievement...We haven't seen the spending of the '23 budget yet nor have we se a pumping of that oil just yet and nor have we seen a full-blown assession to the World Trade Organization yet.  Why is that?  Because we probably have to wait to hear what they have to say when it comes to a Real Effective Exchange Rate.  Hopefully that's what we'll see...in a very very short period of time.

 

MarkZ  Comment: Vietnam is sitting really pretty in their economy. They are main processors of silver! And get this, Cinnamon!  Mark: News from Vietnam: “Vietnam treads the path to becoming an International Financial Hub” There is a lot of pressure from countries around the world for Vietnam to move their currency value up. Great things happening there. Probably the best retirement location for Expats, value and quality of life.

 

Frank26  [Hypothetical conversation with the CBI]  The next phase is to put our currency [dinar] in a basket.  We have control of it do we not?  It's all the way down to 1310/1320 so close to 1200 or 1000.  We have control of the auctions have we not?  Yes.  We have control over our reserves have we not?  Yes.  You have it all...These other currencies don't mind going in a basket with you?  No.  They know by going into that basket supply and demand will be called upon for everyone in the basket...Iraq is the prettiest girl in town.  

Mnt Goat   So, how long will us investors in the IQD have to wait before Iraq is allowed to liberate its own currency? Why do I say “now is the time”?  We know they are completely out of Chapter VII sanctions since December 2022...We know they want the Iraq funds (nearly USD 115+ billion) released from the NY banks and put in their custody...We know they have plans for yet more Sovereign Funds to invest their reserves.  We know they are making agreements now for “currency swaps” for trade...as Iraq will no longer be using any US dollars in Iraq as of January 1st 2024.  We know that the IMF is now working on the final stages of pulling together agreements to build a new basket of six (6) currencies to re-peg the IQD.  More pressure from Iraqi economics advisors to the government to use a “basket” of currencies for the new dinar peg. This is the IMF plan of 2011 all along. [Post 1 of 3]

Mnt Goat  We know since January they have undertaken a massive “de-dollarization” program and told it should have taken 6 years but they decided to do it in 1 year (2023).  Why such a hurry? We know the value of the IQD right now does exceed even pre-1991 era but still at 1/6 of a penny for a rate? The value won’t go up, its already there... Why is it being suppressed? Iraq needs to see a rate reflecting the TRUE VALUE. What is holding it back? We know Iraq now pumps 2/3 more oil than in pre-1991 era. Iraq also has announced 132+ tons of GOLD reserves. We know they are pushing this year alone, more than any other year since 2005, for the passing of Oil and Gas law.  Why? We know for a FACT that it is the U.S. through the Treasury Dept. direction that will NOT give sign-off to allow the reinstatement. Why? [Post 2 of 3]

Mnt Goat  Finally, the CBI has told us many times already that January is the most opportune time to reinstate for accounting purposes, since it begins their new FISCAL year (for accounting purposes).  Imminent World Trade Organization full accession.  Just be patient, the reinstatement is coming and I firmly believe from what we now know there is a very strong likelihood we NOT are going to be at the banks in early 2024 but there is still strong hope for early part of the new year. There is no guarantees and so no one really knows a date when the event will occur. Let’s just follow the FACTS and see where they lead us…okay? Iraq is full of surprises and so anything is possible. [Post 3 of 3]

 

 

 

[BETTYBOOP]

The goats post is regurgitated from just before Christmas. Nothing new

[Luigi1]

Thanks Ron. 

You always bring the big story of the day & this is the most significant article of this day.

Go RV.

[Luigi1]

Just now, Luigi1 said:

Thanks Ron. 

You always bring the big story of the day & this is the most significant article of this day.

Go RV.

 

 

Militia Man  Sudani...I think he's right when he says 2024 is going to be a year of achievement...We haven't seen the spending of the '23 budget yet nor have we se a pumping of that oil just yet and nor have we seen a full-blown assession to the World Trade Organization yet.  Why is that?  Because we probably have to wait to hear what they have to say when it comes to a Real Effective Exchange Rate.  Hopefully that's what we'll see...in a very very short period of time.

[HowieC]

7 hours ago, Luigi1 said:

 

 

Militia Man  Sudani...I think he's right when he says 2024 is going to be a year of achievement...We haven't seen the spending of the '23 budget yet nor have we se a pumping of that oil just yet and nor have we seen a full-blown assession to the World Trade Organization yet.  Why is that?  Because we probably have to wait to hear what they have to say when it comes to a Real Effective Exchange Rate.  Hopefully that's what we'll see...in a very very short period of time.

 

 

I especially like MM's comment with what Carrello posted today......

 

[Carrello]

Howie, this is the conundrum for me: The REER (real effective exchange rate). One thing we do know that covers major issues for Iraq: The issues need a REER. The 2023 and 2024  budgets need it, the HCL needs it, WTO full membership needs it, all investments need it. We also know the REER can be revealed prior to any of these issues seeing REER inclusion.

 

I never thought Iraq would wait on full WTO membership, but perhaps they are. Is this a great, grand slam project? This whole thing is so much bigger than imagined by me. I'm still in the Shabibi mindset days. Just push the button, already. But we have moved into another world of Iraq becoming possibly the most advanced financial system in the world. By that, I mean in terms of latest technology and systems, and not necessarily strength. Iraq has the advantage of starting from the ground up with new systems instead of a remodel of a huge, lumbering system, and with the assistance of many experts and countries from around the world.

 

Iraq is not on its' own here. A country cannot just flip a switch and revise their currency rate if they want to do business with the world. The new rate, in this case, is subject to UST, IMF, WB approval that we know of. Does the Bank of Settlements have a say considering the IMF and World Bank have stated in documents the new Iraqi rate will rock the entire banking system?

 

Remember: Iraq sent a delegation to Washington DC last June to request a delay in the rate change. The systems were not ready. Iraq was given a list to issues that needed to be accomplished prior to a rate change. One of the items was get a handle on corruption. What happened? The individuals corrupting the banking and financial system were starting to be arrested. Criminals were offered immunity from prison if they just returned the stolen funds, and the arrests, like we have never seen before, are continuing. The US Treasury went to Baghdad to fix and complete the CBI required system to connect to the rest of the world, and I have not seen where they have left yet. What do many of the new systems do? They beat corruption, money laundering, etc. 

 

Iraq started trading dinars with 40+ international banks for their home country's currency. That means Iraq and all the banks, individually, needed to be connected electronically, for transfers and CBI monitoring. CBI, the Iraq banks, and all of the corresponding banks needed to be connected so they can transfer and "talk." Big job.

 

One item that has been talked about for decades is investors getting profits out of Iraq. The IMF Article 8 insurance guarantees investors have the capability of investing funds and moving funds (profits) back out. Biggie!

 

Is the "package" inclusive of all the new aspects of Iraq's success (CBI financials systems, HCL, WTO, budgets, etc) or just the REER? I would say, with the exception of full WTO membership announcement, I would say yes.

 

My point is, through my 3:30 AM meanderings, is this: The Iraq RV is so much more complex than just a rate. It has a massive system tied to it now. I believe Iraq has been planned as the bedrock of security and example of democracy and success for the Middle East. Dictators and theocracies don't like happy, wealthy citizens. Yes, Iraq has oil, but I believe there is a bigger, long term picture out there in the sense of others. 

 

We wait....

 

 

[stanleypower]

Awesome breakdown @Carrello  good to see u around!!

[Carrello]

Nice to see you, stanleypower, as well. Thank you.

 

[Shelley]

7 minutes ago, Carrello said:

Nice to see you, stanleypower, as well. Thank you.

 

You see ? Lots of members were looking for you 

[Carrello]

12 minutes ago, Shelley said:

You see ? Lots of members were looking for you 

And I'm looking for your dancing' shoes!

 

Ol'e

[Shelley]

3 minutes ago, Carrello said:

And I'm looking for your dancing' shoes!

 

Ol'e

Dusting them off at this moment 

ole’