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March 2015

Artitech

By Artitech,
in Dinar Rumors

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Nelg Newbie

Nelg

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oil prices will be back up by the end of March< where did you get this information? oil has not even bottomed yet. cheap oil will last over a year.......mark this post, see me in march

 

My “guess work” is based on a little “glowing screen” I have on my desk.  I ask it a question and it comes up with thousands of answers.  Depending on the information you read, the opinions will vary, will determine which way one predicts the results.  But it doesn’t take a genius to come up with a reasonable (albeit iffy) opinion.  

 

Based on crude oil market assessments in the Short-Term Outlook, estimates that OPEC, excluding Iran, will earn about $700 billion in revenue from net oil exports from this past year, a 14% increase from 2013. That is largely because of the decrease in OPEC oil exports and lower oil prices.  Brent crude is projected to average $68 per barrel in 2015.  Oil has been dropping in price, but that is due to increase production in the US causing a drop in price of Saudi oil. They didn’t like the new competition, but I don’t think they are going to cut their production to keep the price high.  They would like nothing more than to allow prices to drop below the cost of production; and that cost varies depending on how hard it is to get the oil from the ground.  But prolonged periods of low prices on OPEC countries as well.  The sovereign wealth funds are smaller for Ecuador, Venezuela, and Iraq and they may not be able to meet their budgets.  That is why Iraq’s budget is for $60 a barrel. 

 

If the price of oil continues to drop, and it may, the bottom will range from $50 to $45 dpb and then begin a climb back up.  OPEC can’t stand the losses.  I believe that the growing concern from OPEC countries, plus pressure from non-OPEC nations will eventually cause the raising of the price.  Therefore I see believe the price will begin to increase by the end of March and will settle in at $68 to $80 dpb, which will allow OPEC countries to continue production, justify their budgets, and continue to fill their wealth funds.

 

Again, this is just my opinion based on the “glowing screen” on my desk. Here is one to get you started:  http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling

 

Since you have a “glowing screen” on your desk, try asking it a question concerning this speculation and share with us what you think.  Otherwise, check back after the last of March . . . then we can compare notes.  

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ChuckFinley Community Regular

ChuckFinley

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I did a little research on the cost of drilling and fracking for oil. Below is a article from npr.org.

Falling Oil Prices Make Fracking Less Lucrative

Pumpjacks at the Inglewood oil fields in California in March. Some of the most controversial methods of oil extraction, like fracking, oil sands production and Arctic drilling, are also expensive. That's made them less profitable as the price of oil continues to fall.i

Pumpjacks at the Inglewood oil fields in California in March. Some of the most controversial methods of oil extraction, like fracking, oil sands production and Arctic drilling, are also expensive. That's made them less profitable as the price of

Richard Vogel/AP

Oil prices are down than more than 25 percent since June and are staying low for now. Drivers may appreciate that, but for oil companies, it's making some of the most controversial methods of producing oil less profitable — and in a few cases, unprofitable.

Most of the world's oil is selling for about $80 to $85 a barrel now. But not all oil is created equal. In the Middle East, it's cheaper to produce, at a cost of less than $30 a barrel on average, according to the Norwegian firm Rystad Energy.

But in the Arctic, producing a barrel costs $78 on average. From Canada's oil sands, it's an average of $74 a barrel. And because those are averages, some companies have costs that are higher — which means there could be drillers currently producing crude at a loss.

Here in the U.S., the oil drilling boom is due largely to technologies like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, used to force oil from shale formations deep underground. Producing this oil, Rystad figures, costs an average of $62 a barrel.

"What is really interesting for the U.S. drillers and producers is how long they are going to continue the high activity levels that they have, now that prices are going down," says Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad.

Already, some companies are rethinking their plans.

"We will drill fewer wells in a lower-price environment," says Steven Pruett, president and chief executive officer of Elevation Resources in Midland, Texas. With less profit, Pruett says, there's less money to invest in future prospects.

But he also says this isn't a crisis situation for most companies.

"We do not foresee a scenario where prices get so low that we can't cover the cash cost of lifting the barrel," says Pruett. If prices collapsed to 2008 levels, when oil was fetching less than $35 dollars a barrel, drillers might be forced to take more drastic steps like shutting down production. But few are predicting crude will fall that much.

Despite The Dip, Exploration Goes On

You might think a slowdown would be good news to environmental groups concerned about the environmental damage associated with drilling for and burning fossil fuels. But it's more complicated than that.

"If oil is high people will burn less — that's a good a thing," says Jackie Savitz, vice president for U.S. Oceans at Oceana. And if oil prices are low, she says, then companies might drill less, and she thinks that could be good, too.

More important, she says, is that the government create policies that speed the country's transition to renewable energy.

Such policies may affect production in the future, but for now, it's the market that determines if drilling will happen. And the lure of billions of dollars in future profits is hard for energy companies to ignore. Even with lower prices, they are still exploring high-cost environments like the Arctic.

There are a few reasons why companies can justify the cost. Oil prices may rise again, for example, and costs tend to go down after new technologies and forms of production have been around awhile. On top of that, global crude demand continues to rise.

"And that's the reason why companies are making these investments, because they're long-term investments in projects that are expected to provide very large quantities of oil and natural gas for the U.S. economy and for the global economy," says Erik Milito, director of Upstream and Industry Operations for the American Petroleum Institute.

Still, U.S. companies have to keep a close eye on their competitors abroad that can produce oil much more cheaply. That's why, when OPEC meets later this month, a lot of people in the oil business will be watching to see if the cartel will push prices up or down.

Here is the link

http://www.npr.org/2014/11/04/361204786/falling-oil-prices-make-fracking-less-lucrative

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umbertino Grand Master

umbertino

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Posted

As If Investing In An 'Exotic Foreign Currency' Didn't Soil All Of Us ! :o

 

    :D       :D       :D

Erotic

I am going to give each a +1 for the humor. The one thing you need for this investment is a good sense of humor.

More exactly...One needs a lot of self-irony

Feb.2022

SW..Now you're stealing Alex's Job.. He would have written something like  ...5421

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