Enoch8 responding to Highlander and Proteus

[jupitergirl]

....let me start by saying this is a response by enoch to highlander and proteus who do believe there will be no rv of any real value.....

Not so fast. This is not as grim as it might seem, to some.

This is exactly why, it is important to understand a little of the basics, in macro economics. It is why it is important to understand what the Ministry of Planning shows in the Feasibility Studies and Reports.

If you have been following the many posts I have made over the last 3 years, this is why that was all so important to understand.

Now watch this model and you decide, for yourself what is true, based on the fact that, "All currency, whether issued by word, fiat or decree, no matter if it is gold, paper or seashells, is a direct liability, to the issuer, king, country, civilization, or whoever issues it, directly proportionate to the equivalence in it's stated or common buying power."

It is also true, that this value or buying power is directly affected, by the supply of goods and services, weighed against the amount in circulation and the demand against the actual supply of money, vs the supply and demand of goods and services.

That said..... Based on the above economic principals, let's do a simple model using some estimates found in useful reports, from the CIA, IMF, GOI, CBI among other agencies, to show what those supply and demand factors actually are and what we can logically expect.

Here goes:

The Ministry of Planning, used a 'Basis Year' of 1988, to show some interesting statistics that can be used to show where we are today and potentially will be tomorrow, in especially the areas, of Supply of Money in circulation, versus the buying power of that money, in 1988 as compared to today.

Here are some estimated examples, (some of these will vary a bit, depending on the reporting agency, so we will estimate and round off for better understanding). Exact amount and facts can be verified to greater accuracy, later. I want to keep this simple for the time being, as to not get so weighed down it is impossible for the average person to follow, (It is hard enough to understand this, as it is.)

In 1988:

According to MOP, there was approximately 25 Billion IQD in official circulation, (depending on the reporting agency, used.)

The Reported Exchange Rate was $3.22, (Although IMF shows variables, the final number should be compatible as to the actual buying power of the overall monetary base.)

The value of 25 Billion IQD at $3.22 is roughly $80 Billion US, in Buying Power of the IQD reported in circulation at that time.

Oil per barrel varied, but an easy estimate was approximately $15

Today, in 2012:

According to the CBI there is about 30 to 33 Trillion IQD in circulation.

The exchange rate is 1166 or about .00086.

Using 33 Trillion as the article above states, that is an actual buying power of the overall IQD Base, of about $28 Billion US.

Oil per barrel, is now about $1.10 per barrel, which is over 7 times what it was in the Basis year, 1988.

Finally, The Basis Year of 1988, the population of Iraq was only about 27 Million and today is closer to 32 Million.

OK.... so what does that all mean and what does it have to do with the above discussion in this thread?

As Shelby Stenga would say, "Heya we go!!!"

Would anyone dispute, the fact, that the oil prices of 1988 vs the oil prices today, are the rough equivalent of overall world inflation relative to, todays overall average prices, versus the prices of 1988, meaning that average prices on goods and services are about 7 times what they were in 1988?

Here is what that would suggest, and how it relates to the above economic principals of supply and demand, and how that is reflected directly in the buying power of a currency. That is called ERER (Equilibrium Rate of Exchange Ratio), in Exchange Rate Regime Methodologies.

A buying power of $28 Billion in 1988, as a basis or target for feasibility, would suggest that the same buying strength should be the estimated equilibrium, for calculating needed supply and demand ratios to buying power.

If there was 700% increases in overall prices and cost of living, then that would suggest, that the status quo, today would be 7 times what it was in 1988, without factoring population increase or modernization increases to that same demand, nor factoring addition world and secondary markets, which are dramatically higher than 1988. I will come back to those, in a bit.

That suggests, that to keep up that status quo, there would need to be a buying power or Purchase Power Parity of $28 Billion x 7 = $197 Billion, after dedollarizing and repatriating the IQD,

Now.... I am not including the oil markets, to this equation, because the oil markets are based on Petro Dollars, just as they were in 1988, so that is a bit of a wash, therefore not a factor, in calculating an exchange rate equilibrium, although the oil market, does serve as a powerful enhancement to the ability of a country to leverage it's natural resources into liquidity, but it cannot be used to factor the exchange rate or ratio of it's own currency, unless it is traded in it's own currency. So, I am excluding it as a factor, for this example.

Also, I am not factoring a difference in digital, currency as liability, because inventory is removed proportionate to digital accounts, which removes that liability, according to CBI law, and standard international banking practices.

Also, I am not factoring a difference in dollarization, because, in my estimations, the proportion of dollars in circulation, in the non oil economy are offset, by the export of IQD out of Iraq control, and as that percentage is repatriated, into Iraq, so will the USD be pulled out of circulation, as to offset (Balance), the equilibrium.

Based on that, so far, we now show a need for $196 Billion worth of IQD, as a non oil sector of the economy, and still need to factor in, population, modernization and secondary market demands.

Population based on 27 million in 1988 and 32 Million today is a 1.18 factor. 196 x 1.18 = $232 Billion.

Modernization, is tough. I can only estimate, that there is a need for about double, easily, even higher, yet wages have not increased world wide, to meet such demands, so they may offset each other. In the spirit of erring on the side of caution, I will not factor modernization and wage indexes, as a natural counter balance, to this equation.

OK, so how about the Secondary Markets? World Demand?

We know right now, there is a huge market demand growing, even just on the IQD alone, without even delving into Gov Bonds and Securities, just based on the fact that there are estimates ranging from 24.8 Trillion IQD to 27 Trillion, removed from Iraq Liquidity, which I believe are proportionate to the USD in Circulation. That is a common practice of Central Banking Intervention, to remove excess liquidity from the markets.

We have not seen CBI do this, but we do know, the Iraq Banks have done so. My guess is at the behest of CBI. No way to know for sure.

What that says to me, is simple, once your see it. That means there is about 80% of the IQD in circulation, that is based on external secondary market demands.

If that is the case, we can now easily make a reasonable deduction, that, this would be the case, following UN Chap 7 releases and IMF Art VIII compliances are met and the GOI Securities and Bonds are rated B and above, as was suggested by Al Saleh, this week in a related article. That suggests, we now have a new number to work with, that is at minimum, 5 times higher demand, than the $232 Billion, leaving us with $232 x 5 = $1.160 Trillion US, Demand for IQD, as a real market equilibrium factor.

What that suggests, is this..... to have 33 Trillion in circulation, once repatriated, dedollarized and recognized, as even a B rated Nation, $.035 or 3 and a half cents, would become a new realistic factor, if a simple RV were the case.

But Wait!!! We are only using the amount in current value. We are forgetting something else we left out!!!

In 1988 the buying power of the total was $80 Billion, not just $28 Billion!!!

That means we are estimating by a factor of 2.8 times low!~!!

1.16 T x 2.8 = $3.3 Trillion!!!!

That brings us to about $.086 ~or~ a 10 To 1 Exchange Ratio, of a 1000 to 1 Redenomination at $.86.

But remember, "All currency, whether issued by word, fiat or decree, no matter if it is gold, paper or seashells, is a direct liability, to the issuer, king, country, civilization, or whoever issues it, directly proportionate to the equivalence in it's stated or common buying power."

So, the question is, "How does Iraq, create $3.3 Trillion USD worth of value, to cover the liability, of even a 8.6 cent exchange rate, (Or the effective equivalence, in an Re-Denomination with a revenue positive Exchange Ratio, (Not to be confused with Exchange Rate), when the CBI can only cover $60 Billion of the liability?

The answer to this comes back to the general discussion, Proteus is pointing out. This is done through converting non liquid assets, into actual liquidity. Remember, the exact liquidity created is also a direct liability, so in other words, "It has to be paid for or covered in real value."

No pipe dream can change that fact.... not even the US gets away with creating liquidity, even out of thin air, without creating debt, IE. Liability.

As Highlander said, we will be discussing this in the 11 part series, "Dinar Fact of Fiction" at Revalue.us

Regards,

Enoch8

HighlanderPosts: 2

: March 20, 2012, 04:07:02 PM »Enoch great analysis! Thank you! I have one question for you however. The actual population of Iraq from the last official census was 16,278,000 in 1987. http://countrystudies.us/iraq/30.htm

Wouldn't that actually make your case stronger and raise the numbers you listed above?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Enoch8 Hero Member

Re: !!! Sources: Central Bank began printing Iraqi currency after deletion of zeros

« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2012, 04:15:22 PM »Quote from: Highlander on March 20, 2012, 04:07:02 PM

Enoch great analysis! Thank you! I have one question for you however. The actual population of Iraq from the last official census was 16,278,000 in 1987. http://countrystudies.us/iraq/30.htm

Wouldn't that actually make your case stronger and raise the numbers you listed above?

Holy Jehosephat Highlander! Then if I used 27 Million for 1988 as a ratio for population increase demand, that increases our final tally by almost 40%!

I did say I want to err on the side of caution, so just factor that 3.3 Trillion by 30 or 40%.

3.3 T + 40% equals about $4.62 Trillion.

$4.62 T divided by 33 Trillion = $0.14 or closer to 14 cents, basically, (whether RD or RV is not relevant if they do a Revenue Positive Ratio).

I would love to hear from Scooter about his current thoughts on the rv/rd.....he is tight with these 3. Scooter....WHERE ARE YOU!!!!....

[zigmeister]

Good post Jupitergirl thanks. I like Enoch8.

[The Machine]

Nice post .... +1

I'm guessing this bit below is supposed to be $110 not $1.10

Today, in 2012:

According to the CBI there is about 30 to 33 Trillion IQD in circulation.

The exchange rate is 1166 or about .00086.

Using 33 Trillion as the article above states, that is an actual buying power of the overall IQD Base, of about $28 Billion US.

Oil per barrel, is now about $1.10 per barrel, which is over 7 times what it was in the Basis year, 1988.

[4Horsn2]

Nice post...thanks, jupitergirl.

[Joe P]

Hey highlander...call me!!!

[TimS]

Sounds possible....I've said 10 cents is supportable by Iraq's economy, but only if they start working together...and that's a bif if

[Drprunepicker]

Nice post. Much more believable than the 747 is landing a 14.38

[easyrider]

if they revalue at .10 cents its not gonna stay there long thats for damn sure.

[zul]

Awesome

worth reading over and over again......

if they revalue at .10 cents its not gonna stay there long thats for damn sure.

I'm with you......

[Darin]

Awesome chat from a guy who uses data to put the pieces together for us.

When he first mentioned 28 million in 1988 than later concluded 32 million, I thought that seemed odd. It seemed rather high.

So they are saying roughly 16 to 17 trillion a little over 20 years ago, and it has since than basically doubled.

The CBI should consider their project with taking the future into consideration:

What does their future bring?

Higher populations (families growing, citizens returning, citizens from neighboring countries taking citizenship if possible in country, etc)

Increase foreign investors & investments (creating more demand for usage of IQD)

An increasing success of an economy puts more cash in peoples hands (creates higher demand & more frequent usages which leads to replacing soiled notes)

Overall success of the economy may further put an increase in foreign demand of the IQD through use of trade, foreign banks, etc.

Neighboring countries facing sanctions may also run to the IQD as a safe haven currency further increasing demand as an alternative

Success & increases of businesses will require more cash on hand to conduct business

Hmm... R/D? Good luck re-denominating and meeting all that demand with only 30 billion IQD in existence. Corporations in the U.S. make more than that per year. Some of the richest people in the world exceed that figure in terms of US value.

30 billion, remember, that is 30 billion @ $0.86 (not $30 billion). 30 billion = 25.8 Billion USD value

I find it hard to agree with a $3+ R/V, and a 1:1 is far-fetched, but a $0.01 - $0.03 or slightly better is feasible.

[Laid Back]

With .86 I will be doing my happy dance.....Go Rv

[Highlander]

This was a fabulous post and I personally know how much time Enoch8 puts into doing this for people. I would like to make one correction to the original post. I do not believe a 'LOP" is a done deal. In fact that is why Enoch8 and I are doing the Friday night series together to show how this can happen without any hype or rumors. The day I do believe in a LOP I will tell people that straight up and I will get out of this investment. Please hang in there as I stand with Enoch8 that there is a way to make money. I can't guarantee you will make money but I am still full of hope for it based on real numbers!

[jupitergirl]

This was a fabulous post and I personally know how much time Enoch8 puts into doing this for people. I would like to make one correction to the original post. I do not believe a 'LOP" is a done deal. In fact that is why Enoch8 and I are doing the Friday night series together to show how this can happen without any hype or rumors. The day I do believe in a LOP I will tell people that straight up and I will get out of this investment. Please hang in there as I stand with Enoch8 that there is a way to make money. I can't guarantee you will make money but I am still full of hope for it based on real numbers!

Question for you Highlander: When you Proteus and Enoch do your research and make assumptions is it all based on hard facts from what the cbi has said and other countries have done? I guess what I am asking as well is there is no ' plan ' built into your research because there is no real proof of a ' plan '. Thanks...

[Highlander]

Question for you Highlander: When you Proteus and Enoch do your research and make assumptions is it all based on hard facts from what the cbi has said and other countries have done? I guess what I am asking as well is there is no ' plan ' built into your research because there is no real proof of a ' plan '. Thanks...

That is a great question! First off I would like to clarify that each of us does their own research and formulates their own hypothesis. Since you brought this post over here you obviously read the original thread that this was taken from and are aware that Proteus did indicate in that thread his beliefs. My beliefs are more along the lines of Enoch8. My theories are based on 1.5 years of studying in this investment. Yes I base what I believe on hard facts, documents, and statements from the CBI and the government of Iraq, and also the history of currencies throughout the world.

As far as addressing "The Plan" I would need you to clarify which plan you would be referring to. There are several plans for Iraq. There was the 5-year plan, the feasibility studies, the future of Iraq plan and most of these have been updated and re-released over the years as the situation in Iraq has changed and progressed.

[Highlander]

Awesome chat from a guy who uses data to put the pieces together for us.

When he first mentioned 28 million in 1988 than later concluded 32 million, I thought that seemed odd. It seemed rather high.

So they are saying roughly 16 to 17 trillion a little over 20 years ago, and it has since than basically doubled.

The CBI should consider their project with taking the future into consideration:

What does their future bring?

Higher populations (families growing, citizens returning, citizens from neighboring countries taking citizenship if possible in country, etc)

Increase foreign investors & investments (creating more demand for usage of IQD)

An increasing success of an economy puts more cash in peoples hands (creates higher demand & more frequent usages which leads to replacing soiled notes)

Overall success of the economy may further put an increase in foreign demand of the IQD through use of trade, foreign banks, etc.

Neighboring countries facing sanctions may also run to the IQD as a safe haven currency further increasing demand as an alternative

Success & increases of businesses will require more cash on hand to conduct business

Hmm... R/D? Good luck re-denominating and meeting all that demand with only 30 billion IQD in existence. Corporations in the U.S. make more than that per year. Some of the richest people in the world exceed that figure in terms of US value.

30 billion, remember, that is 30 billion @ $0.86 (not $30 billion). 30 billion = 25.8 Billion USD value

I find it hard to agree with a $3+ R/V, and a 1:1 is far-fetched, but a $0.01 - $0.03 or slightly better is feasible.

Very nicely said and I couldn't agree with you more! A LOP down to 25.8 Billion USD is not enough money and that is one of the things Enoch8 and I both firmly believe. It would set the progress in their country back by out 3-5 years by my projections and calculations. If they are speaking the truth about their future plans for that country at all then they need to get this done with a revenue positive event occuring.

Personally I am choosing to understand all options and then cross my fingers and toes that they do the right thing!

[Zekiel]

Hey, Jupiter. Thanks for the post.

I can tell you for a fact, that Enoch8 was not addressing Highlander, in that post. In fact, if you are a member of the forum where that original discussion is located, you would know that.

If you read that thread, where Enoch's response came from, he was addressing the article from CBI and a couple of folks, who thought it was referencing a revenue neutral event.

In Highlanders remarks (Or anything I have heard Highlander say in the series they are doing), nothing leads me to believe she is advocating any such notion, as what some others said, in response to that article.

Looks to me, like Highlander is pointing out, that in the CBI Plan, ( Actually, in reality 'CBI Plan' is an improper term, because the 'Plan' is a GOI, 'Ad-hoc, Economic Committee Plan' consisting of the Ministries of Finance and Planning and the Board of Governors of the CBI, just for the record ), which Enoch8 and Highlander have compiled a series that will explain, that it is not likely that what is being reported as a simple re-denomination, as the papers have consistently been saying for the past 2 years, will be what is finally unveiled.

People were basically freaking out with the meaning of that article, and some even showed the RD being revenue neutral as being 1 possibility, if the so called plan, that CBI is consistently showing in the news articles.

I can tell you I know both Highlander and Enoch8. Highlander has never advocated anything like what was being said, in that original thread or anywhere else for all that matters.

It seems like there have been some comments out there lately, from a handful of people, who seem to have some kind of ax to grind with her. Maybe if those folks would take the time to study and listen before they open their mouths about her, they might learn something. It also occurs to me, the very people bashing her might have their own agenda.

Just saying.

[jupitergirl]

Thank you Zekiel and Highlander. I am sorry if I misrepesented the conversation from the other forum I did not mean to. I hope I did not rattle any feathers at the other forum by bringing this over. There is much respect for Enoch, Highlander and you as well Zekiel....especially from me! We all look forward to reading anything you all post!

[Darin]

Very nicely said and I couldn't agree with you more! A LOP down to 25.8 Billion USD is not enough money and that is one of the things Enoch8 and I both firmly believe. It would set the progress in their country back by out 3-5 years by my projections and calculations. If they are speaking the truth about their future plans for that country at all then they need to get this done with a revenue positive event occuring.

Personally I am choosing to understand all options and then cross my fingers and toes that they do the right thing!

People press the idea so much about how this will end up being a LOP. I know that is not what we desire for the outcome of this speculation, but the casual lopster focuses on how numbers don't add up. What needs to be done or so it seems, is more focus on how a re-denomination will not work that simple either. It seems like an event that will fix their problems, but in reality, it may not solve the problems correctly.

Will a re-denomination fix dollarization? That is debatable.

Will a re-denomination help support a stronger value? Once again debatable.

Will the CBI likely have to continue printing excessive amounts of IQD to fill demand? I would argue "yes" unless they appreciate the value, but history has shown us that they haven't really done so yet, but who knows.

[Zekiel]

Appreciate that Jupitergirl.

So kind of you. Keep up the good work.

[DetroittoAZ]

Edited March 22, 2012 by DetroittoAZ

[zaborniake]

Good thread.

[Highlander]

Thank you jupitergirl!

People press the idea so much about how this will end up being a LOP. I know that is not what we desire for the outcome of this speculation, but the casual lopster focuses on how numbers don't add up. What needs to be done or so it seems, is more focus on how a re-denomination will not work that simple either. It seems like an event that will fix their problems, but in reality, it may not solve the problems correctly.

Will a re-denomination fix dollarization? That is debatable.

Will a re-denomination help support a stronger value? Once again debatable.

Will the CBI likely have to continue printing excessive amounts of IQD to fill demand? I would argue "yes" unless they appreciate the value, but history has shown us that they haven't really done so yet, but who knows.

AMEN Brother! Very well spoken. There is more than one way to skin a cat (at least I hope) in this investment!

[zigmeister]

Nice surprise to find this thread here and I am so glad Jupiter Girl brought this over. I also highly respect Enoch8, Highlander, and Zekiel for obvious reasons. So how can we listen to or read the series on Friday?

[keepmwlknfny]

People press the idea so much about how this will end up being a LOP. I know that is not what we desire for the outcome of this speculation, but the casual lopster focuses on how numbers don't add up. What needs to be done or so it seems, is more focus on how a re-denomination will not work that simple either. It seems like an event that will fix their problems, but in reality, it may not solve the problems correctly.

Will a re-denomination fix dollarization? That is debatable.

Will a re-denomination help support a stronger value? Once again debatable.

Will the CBI likely have to continue printing excessive amounts of IQD to fill demand? I would argue "yes" unless they appreciate the value, but history has shown us that they haven't really done so yet, but who knows.

For me I dont see how it wouldnt fix both of those issues.....I want to see how a RD just simply would not work in this situation as much as the next guy but have yet to stumble across anything substantial to indicate that....

[Highlander]

Nice surprise to find this thread here and I am so glad Jupiter Girl brought this over. I also highly respect Enoch8, Highlander, and Zekiel for obvious reasons. So how can we listen to or read the series on Friday?

I will respect the forum rules and not promote another forum. If you wish to send me a private email or pm I will gladly give you the information.