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THE $50,000 DOLLAR BAG OF GROCERIES......


Legolas
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Darin we have statements from Ali and documents from Dinar Banker as well as sales on Ebay to give us an idea of whats going on. Thats only two dealers out of many and only US sales so all we have to do is the math to figure out there is likely at the very least a trillion in speculators hands. If you ask me it is ten times that but I have no proof.

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You think that a million people are invested in the U.S. alone?

That is a crazy thought, in my opinion.

Dinar vets is easily found through any search on the internet for anything IQD related.

Its how I came across this site...

Test it yourself: In fact, I use "google" in an attempt to find posts on DV because it is easier than the forums search function itself at times.

Now look at the total members for this site: Not even 50,000 members

That is far short of a million people, huh?

Now, think about this, out of all those members some are duplicate accounts, banned accounts, spam accounts, and maybe previously IQD holding speculators.

If you hold more than 1 million, you likely are not just throwing $1,000+ away at a hail mary. You simply do your due diligence and research.

Now out of the active members, there is likely many who hold very little IQD (i.e., 100k, 250k, 500k, etc) however, that is offset by some who likely hold many millions.

Now here is the "kicker" that many may love.... This is where the average lopster who would believe that many IQD is held by US people within the states becomes a hypocrite if they like to prefer to take everything the CBI or Shabbibi says at face value.

Shabbibi was quoted for saying that very little IQD resides outside of the country. (VERY LITTLE) with the exception of some IQD that is in nearby countries from trade.

So, how are we so supposed to take the credibility of a lopster who states that they believe everything that the CBI or Shabbibi says is fact than turn around with a negative spin & put out the idea that millions of people hold IQD within the states ALONE!?!?

Are they now going to say "Shabbibi was putting up smokes & mirrors?" LMAO

Suppose there is 1T held by speculators outside of Iraq. 1T out of an M2 of 62T is only 1.6% . That is "very little".
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Which is more likely? The CBI, IMF, WTO, U.S. Treasury have been and are continuing to lie to us, or the gurus and pumpers have been lying to us? More importantly, for WHICH of those two scenarios is there overwhelming EVIDENCE??? If you don't believe that the answer is "the gurus and pumpers," then there's no point in reading ANYTHING posted in this section. Wishful thinking and delusion can be very comforting, but also VERY DAMAGING. Once again, this has been an extremely valuable and informative thread. Keep up the great work gang! cool.gif

I won't repost your whole response (bandwith and all that stuff).

I really wasn't arguing against anything that you or Dinarck had said. You put your points eloquently.

So, back to the question. How many dinars can you see as being in the hands of speculators? 10 trillion? 20 trillion?

I hope you can see my point about how the number of dinars doesn't make sense when you look at Iraq's poverty levels, annual wages etc. The only way that the amount of dinars in circulation could make sense is if the majority of it is out of the country.

Also, the increase in the amount of dinar year on year, again, only make sense to me if the majority of it is going overseas. The increase, as you well know, has been around three trillion every year for some time now. If we take it as being 30 trillion in circulation right now, that means they have been increasing the amount in circulation by more than 10% every year. I'm not sure that their economy has grown by this much year on year for the last 8 years or so.

So what have they been doing? Replacing worn notes? Maybe. But that would mean that they have either not been removing the damaged notes from the circulation figures they report, or they have been printing and releasing more than 3 trillion every year.

Has the CBI been selling to dinar speculators (via dealers of course) and making a fortune off the spread? Quite possible. Good business if you can get in on it.

Or, have they been printing and releasing that amount to maintain the fixed exchange rate?

If that is the case, again, where is the cash?

As I said before, I'm not really trying to argue against any of the points that you make. Just questions.......

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I won't repost your whole response (bandwith and all that stuff).

I really wasn't arguing against anything that you or Dinarck had said. You put your points eloquently.

So, back to the question. How many dinars can you see as being in the hands of speculators? 10 trillion? 20 trillion?

I hope you can see my point about how the number of dinars doesn't make sense when you look at Iraq's poverty levels, annual wages etc. The only way that the amount of dinars in circulation could make sense is if the majority of it is out of the country.

Also, the increase in the amount of dinar year on year, again, only make sense to me if the majority of it is going overseas. The increase, as you well know, has been around three trillion every year for some time now. If we take it as being 30 trillion in circulation right now, that means they have been increasing the amount in circulation by more than 10% every year. I'm not sure that their economy has grown by this much year on year for the last 8 years or so.

So what have they been doing? Replacing worn notes? Maybe. But that would mean that they have either not been removing the damaged notes from the circulation figures they report, or they have been printing and releasing more than 3 trillion every year.

Has the CBI been selling to dinar speculators (via dealers of course) and making a fortune off the spread? Quite possible. Good business if you can get in on it.

Or, have they been printing and releasing that amount to maintain the fixed exchange rate?

If that is the case, again, where is the cash?

As I said before, I'm not really trying to argue against any of the points that you make. Just questions.......

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Darin we have statements from Ali and documents from Dinar Banker as well as sales on Ebay to give us an idea of whats going on. Thats only two dealers out of many and only US sales so all we have to do is the math to figure out there is likely at the very least a trillion in speculators hands. If you ask me it is ten times that but I have no proof.

Funny how people believe everything on the internet...

And how every sale is a fresh sale of something new & not something being resold.

Suppose there is 1T held by speculators outside of Iraq. 1T out of an M2 of 62T is only 1.6% . That is "very little".

Your right that is very little, but I think the majority of that 1T is still held in surrounding countries.

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I won't repost your whole response (bandwith and all that stuff).

I really wasn't arguing against anything that you or Dinarck had said. You put your points eloquently.

So, back to the question. How many dinars can you see as being in the hands of speculators? 10 trillion? 20 trillion?

I hope you can see my point about how the number of dinars doesn't make sense when you look at Iraq's poverty levels, annual wages etc. The only way that the amount of dinars in circulation could make sense is if the majority of it is out of the country.

Also, the increase in the amount of dinar year on year, again, only make sense to me if the majority of it is going overseas. The increase, as you well know, has been around three trillion every year for some time now. If we take it as being 30 trillion in circulation right now, that means they have been increasing the amount in circulation by more than 10% every year. I'm not sure that their economy has grown by this much year on year for the last 8 years or so.

So what have they been doing? Replacing worn notes? Maybe. But that would mean that they have either not been removing the damaged notes from the circulation figures they report, or they have been printing and releasing more than 3 trillion every year.

Has the CBI been selling to dinar speculators (via dealers of course) and making a fortune off the spread? Quite possible. Good business if you can get in on it.

Or, have they been printing and releasing that amount to maintain the fixed exchange rate?

If that is the case, again, where is the cash?

As I said before, I'm not really trying to argue against any of the points that you make. Just questions.......

Excellent points, Tigerstripes. And I DO think there is a lot more outside the country than most people want to admit. I don't have any way of knowing the exact number, but based on what I've seen and read, I wouldn't be surprised by "several trillion" held by investors. BUT, that being said, the 30 TRILLION or so Dinars sounds like a huge number in circulation, but 30 Trillion is only a lot of money IF those Dinars become DOLLARS. Right now, each Dinar is only 1/10 of a penny. So in reality, the current Dinars only amount to about $30 BILLION Dollars. See what I mean? It sound like a lot until you realize that we're talking about Dinars and not Dollars. BUT, if they were to RV to $1, THEN WE WOULD be talking about $30 TRILLION DOLLARS suddenly coming into existence, and this is several times more money than exists in the entire world.

There's no doubt that Iraq has been exporting BILLIONS of Dinars each month for years. Do the math, and look at the numbers dealers have readily admitted selling (including COURT documents) and it's easy to see how U.S. investors could easily, after 8 years of Dinar sales, be holding Trillions of Dinars. As Dinarck stated earlier, I would bet on it. And Darin, more than three years ago when I first got into this, the dealers were estimating more than a million investors. Again, based on their sales numbers, that number is probably conservative The number has undoubtedly at least doubled in the last 3 years. :blink:

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Tell me about it. People will believe whatever but from the get go that is one thing that has bugged my thoughts. If I myself hold (i wont say how much but its alot) this much dinar then how much of it is really out there. My buddy has the same amount as me and we are just two guys in one city. I mean a thousand million makes a billion. From how much I have I would say it would not take much for dealers to sell a billion. They do that a thousand times which isnt hard to imagine then there is a trillion. I really dont need to type out all the other countries were speculation is occurring around the globe.

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Tell me about it. People will believe whatever but from the get go that is one thing that has bugged my thoughts. If I myself hold (i wont say how much but its alot) this much dinar then how much of it is really out there. My buddy has the same amount as me and we are just two guys in one city. I mean a thousand million makes a billion. From how much I have I would say it would not take much for dealers to sell a billion. They do that a thousand times which isnt hard to imagine then there is a trillion. I really dont need to type out all the other countries were speculation is occurring around the globe.

Everyone is always so focused on the 'outflow'

They neglect to consider the re-circulatory factor.

Not all IQD that is sold is consistently held.

i.e., Joe buys from Ali, which Joe decides that he thinks this is a bunk investment and decides to sell. Realizing that the buy-back from Ali is way less than he paid for he resorts to E-bay.

i.e., Bob heard a tip about a great investment, and found a pumping guru who made it seem the R/V was imminent. Bob bought thousands of $ worth of IQD expecting a substantial quick payout. The R/V never occurs and Bob bought more than he can afford, his only option is to return the purchase to make ends meet. He takes a loss & sells back to dealers.

Do we know if Banks or currency exchange stations have used popular licensed dealers to receive their IQD?

When Shabibi made his quote saying very little resides outside the country, this was before the rush on the USD by surrounding sanctioned countries. I would not be surprised or naive to think that those people on the black market used IQD to receive their USD. I highly doubt a businessman would desire a sanctioned country currency to hold in return since the value would be dropping.

Researchers have concluded that the initial print & release of IQD back in 2004 was roughly 6.38 Trillion. We know that 2 trillion was allocated to reserves.

Without considering the factor of replacing old battered notes, the amount they have expanded to is now 30 Trillion. That is more than 7 times (using the 4 trillion factor) in a little over 7 years.

If demand was that high, the CBI could have quickly & easily appreciated the value against the demand maintaining a more stable amount of IQD.

In fact, for every foreign currency received in exchanged for the IQD, the reduction may have even been reduced further. The CBI decided to continue expanding the money supply

Now, if your money supply was inflated due to past hyper inflation, why would you go so print crazy to continue to expand the currency supply? Doesn't that seem irresponsible???

Because not only do they have to print to expand & meet further demand, they have to print to replace soiled bills.

That means 3-4 trillion per year to expand + an additional X factor of an amount to replace soiled bills used in the economy.

Their claim of 30 Trillion does seem to fit nicely with the idea of what was printed overall from a company such as de la rue, but it does seem hard to believe for what is in circulation.

We all make the claims of high poverty and high demand for USD, so if their not using the IQD that much & prefer the USD over the IQD, where is all the IQD within the country?

Now, consider that Shabs has said very little IQD resides outside the country

What if - (A what if scenario) only 6-8 Trillion existed and speculation was accountable for 1-2 trillion.

The reasoning behind the CBIs figures to be so high would have to be that they're only accounting for what has been printed over the years and not what was deducted due to soiled currency.

Just a thought...

It is a theory, that many will likely argue.

Anyways, we have to look at this from a post R/D scenario

30 million people w/ 30 trillion IQD

That basically would make 30 million ppl millionaires, right?

However, not all currency is held by people, as it is used for businesses, banks, and govt purposes

Now, we also have to understand that idea if they reduce it to 30 billion

That means 1,000 IQD per person. In an economy that is going to expand while we still need to allow businesses, vendors, governments, and banks to hold IQD

Is that going to be enough? No, I don't think so.

What that means, if all that we read & see is true - the CBI will re-denominate their currency. Than, to meet future demand continue their trend of printing currency to meet demand of the public.

Appreciation may occur after all old notes are deemed invalid, but that is likely not going to be a substantial move. It will be an appreciation of value only slightly and the currency may rise or fall in value beyond that.

What we need to see happen is an amendment in how they value their currency. They don't necessarily need to back it 100% IMO

The demand will be high in their own future with population increases, economy success, and further production of oil.

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Darin I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. Once again you bring valid points brought on by intelligent insights but to me it really doesnt matter how much is in Iraq or Spain or the US or wherever. They still could never RV like has been pumped for years. I agree that the thought of less dinar in the world is exciting. It means the dinar could appreciate in value over time but never overnight. That is also if they dont RD like they are telling us is happening now. Hopefully they dont because it would be great to profit from this deal and I dont care how long it takes. I am more than willing to wait 30 years. We are talking tens of millions here. Instant gratification isnt really in play here as far as I can tell. It is fun to dream but sooner or later you have to wake up. That statement wasnt pointed at you. I know fully well that you comprehend better than probably even myself the dynamics of the situation. I am always looking for a positive outcome here but obviously I have made up my mind by the simple logic of the whole thing. Now I wait and see about this supposed RD. If in fact it is smoke then you have to admit that they have gone to extreme lengths here. Something tells me it is legit. If so maybe it will still get shot down. Will see.

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Anyways, we have to look at this from a post R/D scenario

30 million people w/ 30 trillion IQD

That basically would make 30 million ppl millionaires, right?

However, not all currency is held by people, as it is used for businesses, banks, and govt purposes

Now, we also have to understand that idea if they reduce it to 30 billion

That means 1,000 IQD per person. In an economy that is going to expand while we still need to allow businesses, vendors, governments, and banks to hold IQD

Is that going to be enough? No, I don't think so.

Why not? Do the same calculation for the US. 310M people, an M1 of 2.2T is roughly $7,000 per person, yet our GDP is around 150x larger than Iraqs. So by that Iraq's is plenty big enough, but also I not so sure that M1 per person is a particularly meaningful indicator.

We know that Iraq's money supply (however big it is) works now as their economy is growing and inflation is modest. Since its the value of the money supply that is important, not the number of notes, then it should continue to work after an RD.

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Excellent points, Tigerstripes. And I DO think there is a lot more outside the country than most people want to admit. I don't have any way of knowing the exact number, but based on what I've seen and read, I wouldn't be surprised by "several trillion" held by investors. BUT, that being said, the 30 TRILLION or so Dinars sounds like a huge number in circulation, but 30 Trillion is only a lot of money IF those Dinars become DOLLARS. Right now, each Dinar is only 1/10 of a penny. So in reality, the current Dinars only amount to about $30 BILLION Dollars. See what I mean? It sound like a lot until you realize that we're talking about Dinars and not Dollars. BUT, if they were to RV to $1, THEN WE WOULD be talking about $30 TRILLION DOLLARS suddenly coming into existence, and this is several times more money than exists in the entire world.

There's no doubt that Iraq has been exporting BILLIONS of Dinars each month for years. Do the math, and look at the numbers dealers have readily admitted selling (including COURT documents) and it's easy to see how U.S. investors could easily, after 8 years of Dinar sales, be holding Trillions of Dinars. As Dinarck stated earlier, I would bet on it. And Darin, more than three years ago when I first got into this, the dealers were estimating more than a million investors. Again, based on their sales numbers, that number is probably conservative The number has undoubtedly at least doubled in the last 3 years. blink.gif

Ha ha. I think you and me got different ideas about what constitutes a lot of money. 30 Billion would be a lot to me!

I know, we're talking about countries. Just having a laugh.

Back to it though. Even if we look at the amount on dollar terms, 30 Billion would mean each and every Iraqi holds at any one time $1000.00. Not likely based on average incomes of around $2,500 (I read it somewhere a while ago. Could be different now - I haven't been paying much attention to the dinar lately) and considering that most Iraqi's live payday to payday. Even if there's 10 trillion dinars out of country - that means 20 trillion circulating in country, that would still mean that every Iraqi holds about 25% of their annual income in reserve at any one time.

Now, this is why I hate averages, because results get skewed by high income earners, and low income earners. So the average generally doesn't give an accurate picture. But the last info I read said that 25% of the population in Iraq live below the poverty line for that country - so that to me means that there is a significant number who earn a lot less than the average wage. Is it reasonable to accept that the people living below the poverty line are holding the equivalent of $600 + at any one time?

I honestly don't know the answers. It's likely that we'll never know the answers. Fun to ask the questions though.

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Darin I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. Once again you bring valid points brought on by intelligent insights but to me it really doesnt matter how much is in Iraq or Spain or the US or wherever. They still could never RV like has been pumped for years. I agree that the thought of less dinar in the world is exciting. It means the dinar could appreciate in value over time but never overnight. That is also if they dont RD like they are telling us is happening now. Hopefully they dont because it would be great to profit from this deal and I dont care how long it takes. I am more than willing to wait 30 years. We are talking tens of millions here. Instant gratification isnt really in play here as far as I can tell. It is fun to dream but sooner or later you have to wake up. That statement wasnt pointed at you. I know fully well that you comprehend better than probably even myself the dynamics of the situation. I am always looking for a positive outcome here but obviously I have made up my mind by the simple logic of the whole thing. Now I wait and see about this supposed RD. If in fact it is smoke then you have to admit that they have gone to extreme lengths here. Something tells me it is legit. If so maybe it will still get shot down. Will see.

I'm not saying guru pumping rates, or even how most of us wish for the $1 R/V

I'm more so arguing I think it is possible to hit something like $0.01 to $0.03 and appreciate from there

Which still is a great return for anyone invested.

$1 would be too much

a R/D they'll continue to print & have to deal w/ a substantial amount of money to pay out to those who cash out at an even rate. So, either way their reserves take a hit.

Why not? Do the same calculation for the US. 310M people, an M1 of 2.2T is roughly $7,000 per person, yet our GDP is around 150x larger than Iraqs. So by that Iraq's is plenty big enough, but also I not so sure that M1 per person is a particularly meaningful indicator.

We know that Iraq's money supply (however big it is) works now as their economy is growing and inflation is modest. Since its the value of the money supply that is important, not the number of notes, then it should continue to work after an RD.

Ya, sort of an apples to oranges comparison. Individuals & businesses are night & day difference.

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I'm not saying guru pumping rates, or even how most of us wish for the $1 R/V

I'm more so arguing I think it is possible to hit something like $0.01 to $0.03 and appreciate from there

Which still is a great return for anyone invested.

$1 would be too much

a R/D they'll continue to print & have to deal w/ a substantial amount of money to pay out to those who cash out at an even rate. So, either way their reserves take a hit.

Ya, sort of an apples to oranges comparison. Individuals & businesses are night & day difference.

I hear ya Darin. Still have to say that .01 isnt possible. Overnight anyway. Maybe over the course of 5 to 10 years. It has taken nearly ten years to go from 4000 to 1170 so maybe not a full 10 years but I think it would be slowly. Lets see. That would make the 1000 dinar note worth what? 10 bucks or 100 bucks? I am no good at math. Ok just busted out the calculator and it would be worth 10 bucks. So my question would be would they need lower denoms? This means the 25,000 note would be worth 250 dollars. At the point of appreciation that the dinar reached .01 I would say that the current currency would still be good to go. They would have 250 worth 2.50 a 500 worth 5.00 a 1000 worth 10.00 and 5000 worth 50.00 a 10,000 worth 100, and a 25,000 worth 250. Let me know if I got all that right.This sounds like a much more reasonable currency value for the country of Iraq but the question still remains how fast can they get there? That is a good debate to have and there is no one on this site that I would rather have it with than you. I know you have hinted to them getting there overnight by using a 2 zero RD. I dont know if that is possible either being how it is nothing more than a RV to .01 overnight but it could be for all I know. Something more to debate. Come Legolas. Throw your 2 cents in here. Keepem, Hopefull, Sonny. What does everyone say?

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Why not? Do the same calculation for the US. 310M people, an M1 of 2.2T is roughly $7,000 per person, yet our GDP is around 150x larger than Iraqs. So by that Iraq's is plenty big enough, but also I not so sure that M1 per person is a particularly meaningful indicator.

Ya, sort of an apples to oranges comparison. Individuals & businesses are night & day difference.

I think average wages would be more appropriate. I'm not sure about the average wage in the US right now, but I would assume around 50K. If we take 2.5K as average wage in Iraq, well, that's 25 times less than the US average.

Now, let's break that down.

310 million US people with average wage of 50K = 15.5 trillion

M1 of 2.2 trillion (does that take into consideration $US held overseas?)

30 million Iraqi people with average wage of 2.5K = 75 billion

M1 of 30 + Billion ($US)

Again, the averages skew the figures, but as I pointed out previuously, 25% of Iraq population living below the poverty line etc, etc, etc... vs cash based economy etc etc etc...

I'm not really sure if any of that actually means anything.

I hear ya Darin. Still have to say that .01 isnt possible. Overnight anyway. Maybe over the course of 5 to 10 years. It has taken nearly ten years to go from 4000 to 1170 so maybe not a full 10 years but I think it would be slowly. Lets see. That would make the 1000 dinar note worth what? 10 bucks or 100 bucks? I am no good at math. Ok just busted out the calculator and it would be worth 10 bucks. So my question would be would they need lower denoms? This means the 25,000 note would be worth 250 dollars. At the point of appreciation that the dinar reached .01 I would say that the current currency would still be good to go. They would have 250 worth 2.50 a 500 worth 5.00 a 1000 worth 10.00 and 5000 worth 50.00 a 10,000 worth 100, and a 25,000 worth 250. Let me know if I got all that right.This sounds like a much more reasonable currency value for the country of Iraq but the question still remains how fast can they get there? That is a good debate to have and there is no one on this site that I would rather have it with than you. I know you have hinted to them getting there overnight by using a 2 zero RD. I dont know if that is possible either being how it is nothing more than a RV to .01 overnight but it could be for all I know. Something more to debate. Come Legolas. Throw your 2 cents in here. Keepem, Hopefull, Sonny. What does everyone say?

Yeah, I think you hit on the problem with a small RV like that (small is strictly relative in this sense), in that the denomination of notes that they are talking about are lower than what would be practical. They talk about a 100 dinar note being the highest (I think).

Maybe they could still operate in that way, but they also talk about coins. I can't see much use for a coin that is worth 1/2 a dinar, when a dinar is worth 1 cent.

But maybe.....who knows?

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Hi Azsunshine. As I've said in previous posts, there's really no way to know what the exchange rate will be. We "hope" that it will increase simultaneously with the RD - IF they finally RD. It certainly seems that they intend to RD from the endless number of media articles confirming it. But they don't HAVE to RD and they don't HAVE to increase the rate.. The GOI could reject both out of hand. The rate could remain as is - artificially fixed at the current rate, and adjusted periodically in small increments as the CBI sees fit. OR, it could be allowed to float against the market. Some articles have suggested that the rate might increase, and others have said that the event will be value neutral. We already know that the Iraqi's can't agree on anything, so the end result remains to be seen.

Personally I think the RD is a done deal - it's just a matter of when. To me, it seems logical that if they want to increase the rate, that would be the best time to do it, in terms of preventing unnecessary confusion among their citizens. But we have no way of knowing. One things is certain - the gurus and pumpers HAVE NO IDEA.

I suspect that there would be changes in the auctions posts RD, but I'm no expert. One would think that a primary goal would be to reduce the use of the Dollar via the introduction of the new IQD with similar values. We just have to wait and see.

Great OP, and as far as the auctions, I would imagine we will see the sale of "new" dinar. On the USD side, I don't expect a change in volume, the amount of USD needed, is the amount of USD needed.

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I hear ya Darin. Still have to say that .01 isnt possible. Overnight anyway. Maybe over the course of 5 to 10 years. It has taken nearly ten years to go from 4000 to 1170 so maybe not a full 10 years but I think it would be slowly. Lets see. That would make the 1000 dinar note worth what? 10 bucks or 100 bucks? I am no good at math. Ok just busted out the calculator and it would be worth 10 bucks. So my question would be would they need lower denoms? This means the 25,000 note would be worth 250 dollars. At the point of appreciation that the dinar reached .01 I would say that the current currency would still be good to go. They would have 250 worth 2.50 a 500 worth 5.00 a 1000 worth 10.00 and 5000 worth 50.00 a 10,000 worth 100, and a 25,000 worth 250. Let me know if I got all that right.This sounds like a much more reasonable currency value for the country of Iraq but the question still remains how fast can they get there? That is a good debate to have and there is no one on this site that I would rather have it with than you. I know you have hinted to them getting there overnight by using a 2 zero RD. I dont know if that is possible either being how it is nothing more than a RV to .01 overnight but it could be for all I know. Something more to debate. Come Legolas. Throw your 2 cents in here. Keepem, Hopefull, Sonny. What does everyone say?

Sorry JMW. Didnt mean to leave ya out. :P

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You guys are getting too detailed so lets get back to basics. Say they LOP and have an exchange period, old dinar for new dinar. Will the exchange rate of the new dinar hold steady during the exchange period? How could we exchange one old 25k note for one new 25 note IF.....the value of the new note wasn't set it stone during the exchange period?

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You guys are getting too detailed so lets get back to basics. Say they LOP and have an exchange period, old dinar for new dinar. Will the exchange rate of the new dinar hold steady during the exchange period? How could we exchange one old 25k note for one new 25 note IF.....the value of the new note wasn't set it stone during the exchange period?

All good questions Bee. In my opinion the rate would be pegged the same as the current currency. Some one correct me if I am worng there. That would keep the rate pretty stable as long as all the tools are in place from the CBI during the process. FnHappy just made a good point about the auctions during this transition. Would the new dinar then be sold? Good question. I guess it would have to be to keep the value of the new dinar stable. I still hold my opinion that the rate of the new dinar will not increase until the RD process is complete and there has been enough time for them to evaluate its success.

The exchange from old to new is still up in the air. How we would be able to do this is also a good question. I personally would sell for USD as soon as I could but I am sure many would attempt to obtain the new currency. Maybe banks will exchange it. Maybe we would have to deal with dealers who we all know would mark up the exchange in an ugly way.

I would still like a discussion and thoughts from many on these issues. A lot of it cannot be answered until more information comes out but we can speculate and many who are good at research could dig up info on past RDs to see what speculators were able to do.

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Sorry JMW. Didnt mean to leave ya out. :P

no problem D...your doing great...wish they would turn you loose in the main forum...but it seems there is good action here with all of the RD articles coming out.

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You guys are getting too detailed so lets get back to basics. Say they LOP and have an exchange period, old dinar for new dinar. Will the exchange rate of the new dinar hold steady during the exchange period? How could we exchange one old 25k note for one new 25 note IF.....the value of the new note wasn't set it stone during the exchange period?

What is set in stone is the old (IQD) to new (call them NID) at 1000:1 . If the IQD / USD rate changes then the NID / USD rate must change as well, or vice versa.
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What is set in stone is the old (IQD) to new (call them NID) at 1000:1 . If the IQD / USD rate changes then the NID / USD rate must change as well, or vice versa.

So basically everything would depend on how the new currency was doing in the market place? Being a pegged currency its actual value could increase or decrease depending on conditions that arise in the economy. So say the CBI had to make an adjustment in the exchange rate of the new currency to counter act the positive or negative effects of those conditions. They would adjust both the old and new at the same time? That seems like the logical move.

I am sure they are taking into account the effects that the very introduction of a newly redenominated currency would have on the economy. Seems like more confidence in a new currency would make the demand for USD less prevelant and in turn actually increase the actual value of the new dinar. Does this mean that they could then up the exchange rate of both old and new to reflect that value?

Fascinating topic.

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no problem D...your doing great...wish they would turn you loose in the main forum...but it seems there is good action here with all of the RD articles coming out.

But it would be great if this very interesting debate / discussion could get known to as many folks as possible.

It's stimulating for the mind.. Then of course everybody can decide whatever....

So it'd be really good if Dinarck and Legolas could be allowed to post on any section of Forum....

A good and well explained and articulated dose of Economic Realism to at least try and counter-balance the overboarding of spacing out "Gurus" statements.

Not so many Members come over here.

Edited by umbertino
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So basically everything would depend on how the new currency was doing in the market place? Being a pegged currency its actual value could increase or decrease depending on conditions that arise in the economy. So say the CBI had to make an adjustment in the exchange rate of the new currency to counter act the positive or negative effects of those conditions. They would adjust both the old and new at the same time? That seems like the logical move.

Right, I think that is how it will go. Since they are both pegged they can set the two rates at whatever they want so they can keep them exactly 1000:1. It seems reasonable that there will be rate changes during the period when the two coexist.

I am sure they are taking into account the effects that the very introduction of a newly redenominated currency would have on the economy. Seems like more confidence in a new currency would make the demand for USD less prevelant and in turn actually increase the actual value of the new dinar. Does this mean that they could then up the exchange rate of both old and new to reflect that value?

As I see it, if they change one they have to change the other to match it. Otherwise there is an inconsistency that would allow money to be made just from the rate being different but the IQD / NID rate staying at 1000:1 .
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Right, I think that is how it will go. Since they are both pegged they can set the two rates at whatever they want so they can keep them exactly 1000:1. It seems reasonable that there will be rate changes during the period when the two coexist.

As I see it, if they change one they have to change the other to match it. Otherwise there is an inconsistency that would allow money to be made just from the rate being different but the IQD / NID rate staying at 1000:1 .

What is your opinion of the auctions? Will old dinar still be traded or will new dinar be traded. When selling USD it seems to me that old dinar would be given for it in an attempt remove the old currency quickly.

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Yota posted an RD article a short time ago...it's pretty clear with not much room for interpretation...it will be interesting to see how they spin it into an RV article overnight.....' Iraq's next challenge"

Edited by pocono
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