Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content

Recommended Posts

If you look at the oil companies that are based out of Kurdistan they are some of the most undervalued stocks in the world right now.  You can buy shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum which has one of the largest onshore oil developments in the world for only 7 cents a share. Western Zagros (WZGRF) can be bought for only 5 cents and it sits on a production field with reserves of 2 billion barrels of oil.   Range Energy (RGOZF) can be bought for 2 cents, Oryx petroleum (TSE:OXC) 50 cents, DNO (DTNOF) 70 cents, and Genel Energy (GEGYY) which was once a $20 stock can be bought for a dollar. Genel Energy has fields that are producing oil for 1 dollar a barrel.  The share price of these companies has been beaten down by non-payment by the KRG, the complete collapse in the price of oil and the fear of ISIS looming over investors.  These oil companies are currently at the brink, bond holders are looking at payments, debt has piled up, employees are not getting paid, etc. Once the 2 billion loan is paid out to the KRG from the IMF and these companies are paid the hundreds of millions of dollars that they are owed their share price is going to skyrocket like nothing seen before possibly hundreds or thousands of percent. Once Mosul is taken we will see another moonshot in share price and of course when the oil price finally recovers which is expected by the end of this year. 

Returns of 1000's of percent will be noticed by Wall Street and this is going to be the catalyst before anything happens to the value of the dinar or the value of the ISX.  It will begin with these oil companies share prices to gain the interest of investors first.  Then you will see the ISX going international, the dinar begin to float, etc. 

All this information is my opinion and is not meant as a recommendation to invest, due your own diligence. In full disclosure I own all of the companies listed above and listed my sources below.

 

 

http://www.sweetplatform.com/wzgrf/westernzagros-resources-buying-22-billion-barrels-of-oil-for-56-million

 The firm holds two production sharing contracts in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. It owns 2.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent of prospective resources. Clearly, it is huge

 

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/95087/GKP_SmartPDF_AR15-spreads-1-.pdf
Page 38.

"The Shaikan block is situated about 85 km north-west of Erbil covering an area of 283 km², it is one of the largest onshore developments in the world today"

 

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Genel-Producing-Oil-For-1-Barrel-Investors-Still-Cautious.html

In the oil patch today, it is indeed the survival of the fittest. So when one of the largest producers in Iraqi Kurdistan, Genel Energy Plc, comes out swinging with production costs as low as $1 per barrel, it inspires a new confidence that may or may not be sustainable given the regional security threats and the difficulties producers are having getting paid for their oil.

Still, it’s an impressive number that renders Kurdistan one of the cheapest oil venues on the planet.

  • Upvote 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EXMO affiliate program

Forgot to add- Gulf Keystone Petroleum- ticker (GUKYF)

 

World bank is providing the 2 billion- accidently put IMF in my post...

2 Billion dollar payment = oil companies get paid for back revenue = I GET PAID!!!

http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/economy/kurdistan/271362.

World Bank to Provide Financial Assistance to KRG

It will initially send $2bn to KRG and will send more later, said KRG Finance Counsellor


World Bank to Provide Financial Assistance to KRG


ERBIL — World Bank has agreed to send financial aid to the Kurdistan Region in collaboration with the United Nations.

An official from Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) stated that they had previously presented a compelling report to the World Bank, explaining the current financial situation KRG is undergoing despite the huge number of IDPs and refugees, estimated to be over a 1.5 million now being settled in Kurdistan Region.

The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, accompanied by Jim Yong Kim, the President of the World Bank Group and Ahmed Mohamed Al-Madani, the President of the Islamic Development Bank, previously visited KRG on March 26, and discussed the latest developments in the war against the Islamic State (IS) as well as the current financial crisis faced by Erbil.

The UN and World Bank have been convinced that KRG is in need of financial aid since it has sheltered about 1.5 million refugees and IDPs despite being effectively at the forefront of battling terrorism, said the KRG finance counsellor.

Hakeem Mukhtar said that the World Bank has agreed to financially aid KRG and will initially send $2bn through Baghdad if possible or open an office in Erbil in order to accomplish the delivery.

The financial assistance from the World Bank to KRG is not yet known either if it is a loan or a grant.

The World Bank, which is part of the United Nations system, was established in 1944, headquartered in Washington, D.C. 

It is a vital source of financial and technical assistance to developing countries around the world, working to reduce poverty and support development. The World Bank Group comprises five institutions managed by their member countries.

 

Edited by spacetuna
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are owed hundreds of millions of dollars by the KRG, current debt load, price of oil down, and ISIS.  

ISIS is close to being beaten

Debt payments will be met once loan proceeds are recieved

Price of oil climbing

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

George- you are incorrect the LSE lists it's shares in pence (not pounds)  that is 5 pence which is the equivalent to 7 cents.

You can buy Gulf Keystone on the London stock exchange if you have an international brokerage account or you can buy

it in an US brokerage account using the ticker  (GUKYF).  NONE OF THESE COMPANIES ARE LISTED ON THE ISX

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spacetuna excellent info!! So if one is to invest $1,000 in Gulf Keystone at 7 cents today, what return can one expect in 6 months from now (ball park of course)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, spacetuna said:

George- you are incorrect the LSE lists it's shares in pence (not pounds)  that is 5 pence which is the equivalent to 7 cents.

You can buy Gulf Keystone on the London stock exchange if you have an international brokerage account or you can buy

it in an US brokerage account using the ticker  (GUKYF).  NONE OF THESE COMPANIES ARE LISTED ON THE ISX

Thanks for the help.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are welcome jg1.

-Gypsygirl- I hesitate to give any predictions on share price there are too many variables at play.  One analyst currently has a projected estimate at 48 Pence which would be a couple hundred percent return.  If ISIS is eliminated and oil goes up further I would suspect much higher then this.

 I would not put all of your money into Gulf Keystone Petroleum though, it offers the highest return potential but is also the most risky.  Spread your money out between a few of the companies I listed so you mitigate your risk, that's what I have done.    I would consider  Range Energy (RGOZF) and Western Zagros (WZGRF) and Genel Energy (GEGYY) as well.  And spend a little time to research the companies on your own, don't just take my word for it. :) 

 

 

Edited by spacetuna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for response and good advice ...  not to put all the eggs in one basket.  I was looking at the chart but it only went back a couple months; which looked like only tripling the investment. This all sounds promising, I'll have to think it over, wish I had more money to play with.... Good luck to you!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I appreciate, and enjoyed reading this post ! 

 

The oil industry just might be a good sector to invest in.

 

Hypothetically  “Investing 101” suggests before you buy anything you need to determine if there is value, what’s the stock is actually worth. 

 

Researching any potential investment should be a requirement for all of us.

 

Public companies all have financial statements available to all of us.

 

A very basic and simple version of researching a stock follows:

 

You can start with what people are paying for the company, by finding the market cap of the stock.

 

Once you know what people are paying for it, then you want to find out what is it actually worth?

 

Simplified value of company = present assets - present liabilities + future earnings, discounted to present values.

 

Using these two values (market cap=$ people are paying, and company value=$ it is worth) you can now re-frame your original question.

 

Overvalued companies are those where market cap>company value (people paying more for it than it's worth) and undervalued companies have the opposite relationship, company value>market cap.

 

Having established that, let's examine how to calculate company value.

 

Company value = present assets - present liabilities + future earnings. So there's a present component, and a future component.

 

 Look at the present component.

 

You can find the company's assets and liabilities on its balance sheet.

 

(Goodwill and intangible assets should be removed from the thought process because they're often imprecise due to being semi-imaginary.)

 

 

I'll end this with a note of caution.  Most of the companies you'll find that look very cheap based on these quantitative criteria have very negative qualitative criteria associated with them. This method is best applied to companies you already like, but are unsure whether the price is right.

 

You might also look into the bonds these companies might be offering.  I posted a while back about “distressed bonds”.  If any of these oil companies are having difficulties mainly because of cash flow, but yet the asset value far exceeds the debt, then you might have an opportunity.  If you hold shares of stock in a company and it goes under, you will probably lose your total investment.  A bond is a legal contract with the company that pays you a dividend and if the company fails that bond you hold is secured by the assets the company has.  You as an investor are near the head of the line in getting some of your funds back.

 

Here are 2 links where you can see, and learn a little more about reading financial statements, or just google it.  Lot’s of good info available.

 

 http://www.grantthornton.com.au/en/insights/technical-publications--ifrs/example-financial-statements/

 

https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/begfinstmtguide.htm

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A quick add on here....this came in the mail today.....

also just below is a link that illustrates the Bond aspect to investing in these oil companies.  The stock mentioned in the article, Cimarex Energy (XEC) offers a bond.........

Perhaps it is better to read the news letter first.

 

05/01/2022

 

and the company has a  Debt/Assets  ratio of 28.33%

 

Just look around, you'll see the basics of the post above.

 

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=xec

 

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

NEWS LETTER

 

By Brian Weepie, analyst, Stansberry Resource Report

 

Friday, April 22, 2016

 

Oil prices are up in recent weeks. And prices of oil producers are up with them.

 

 

 

But there's still more pain in store for the oil patch.

 

 

 

Consider the overall state of the industry… Despite their rise, oil prices are still near $40 a barrel. A few years ago, if you predicted that, people would have laughed you out of the room. Prices are still so low, producers are starting to go bankrupt.

 

 

 

Since the start of 2015, 64 oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy. They include well-known firms like Energy XXI (EXXI) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDPM).

 

 

 

And the pace of filings is increasing. Texas law firm Haynes & Boone, which services many oil companies, says 42 energy companies filed for bankruptcy last year. Less than five months into this year, we've already seen 23. At the current pace, bankruptcies will be up nearly 75% this year.

 

 

 

Believe it or not, this increased pace is a good thing…

 

 

 

It's good because it's necessary. Last July, I explained that the initial filings we had seen at that point were just the beginning…

 

 

 

Between 2003 and 2011, the price of crude oil rose from about $20 per barrel to more than $100 per barrel. At that price, expensive oil all over the world became economic – miles deep under the ocean, under the frozen seas of the Arctic, and even trapped in shale rock.

 

 

 

Areas like south Texas' Eagle Ford Shale and North Dakota's Bakken Shale exploded in growth. Producers, including just-bankrupt Sabine Oil & Gas, borrowed money to start drilling in these areas. Now, with today's low oil prices, many of these companies have high levels of debt that they can't pay back.

 

As I predicted, the bankruptcies were unavoidable.

 

 

 

Bankruptcies will help cleanse the market of higher-cost assets… or put them in the hands of more productive operators. So the companies left will be more efficient… and able to focus on rewarding shareholders. This means investors will have better options to choose from. And we'll see a bottom in these stocks.

 

The increase in bankruptcies – and the production transfer from weaker companies to stronger ones – means we're closer to a bottom in oil prices.

 

 

 

When bankruptcies start to slow their pace,  that will show us it's time to buy.

 

 

 

When that happens, the highest returns will come from the companies that operate efficiently but still carry debt. You see, the market has left oil and gas companies with debt for dead, including those with manageable debt loads. The biggest gains will come from those companies, as investors have overreacted and pushed their shares down the most.

 

 

 

Now is the time to put together a wish list of companies to own when oil prices start to climb for good. Look for companies with…

 

 

 

1.            High cash balances compared to their debt levels,

 

2.            The majority of their debts maturing at least three years from now, and

 

3.            Low production costs.

 

One company that fits the profile is Denver-based oil producer Cimarex Energy (XEC). After a recent move higher, it's still down 27% from its 2014 highs. Cimarex holds cash equal to more than half its total debt and produces oil efficiently. Half of its debt matures in 2022 (the other half matures in 2024).

 

 

 

Look for Cimarex to continue to benefit as the oil outlook brightens. Consider buying shares today.

 

 

 

Good investing,

 

 

 

Brian Weepie

 

+++++++......info for educational purposes only......++++++++

 

Edited by coorslite21
disclaimer
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/20/2016 at 1:41 PM, spacetuna said:

George- you are incorrect the LSE lists it's shares in pence (not pounds)  that is 5 pence which is the equivalent to 7 cents.

You can buy Gulf Keystone on the London stock exchange if you have an international brokerage account or you can buy

it in an US brokerage account using the ticker  (GUKYF).  NONE OF THESE COMPANIES ARE LISTED ON THE ISX

Thanks for the correction.  Like I said, "I might be missing something" and apparently I did.

Even with that, I wouldn't risk my pennies or pence on middle east companies in flux.

Anybody remember Global Crossing in the 90's and the fiber optics boom to support the growth in the middle east?  Most people thought the slide from $90 to pennies on the dollar was going to turn around when Iraq was stabilized...

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Western Zagros is looking good!   Wood and Company just put a 1.60$ target on WZGRF currently trades at 6 cents.
 

 

A series of project milestones and share price catalysts could revitalise WesternZagros (CVE:WZR), the occasionally forgotten oil company in Kurdistan’s production growth story.

Attention in recent months has largely focused on Norway’s DNO and London listed Genel – which together deliver more than 300,000 barrels daily (bopd) into Kurdistan’s export pipeline.

Gulf Keystone’s trials and tribulations have also taken much of the spotlight.

But, in the coming months things could quickly get interesting for Toronto quoted WesternZagros and its assets, which are on-trend to the south of Kirkuk down in Kurdistan’s south-eastern territory.

For those already invested, unfortunately, there’s no getting away from what’s happened to the price, or the material uncertainties in the region.

In the past 18 months, WesternZagros shares have dropped more than 90% to around 11 Canadian cents in the face of low oil prices, the rise of ISIS and uncertainties emanating from decades old political tensions between the Kurdistan region and federal Iraq.

At the same time, investors shouldn’t overlook progress that has been made on the ground and how material are the group’s assets.

It could be on the verge of large scale development at the Garmian and Kurdamir fields and it has a reserve and resources base potentially in excess of 2bn barrels of oil.

In Gazprom and Repsol, it has partnerships with two of the largest oil companies in the world.

And with those partners taking the operational reins the company will be free to pursue new opportunities – with Kurdistan and other parts of the Middle East targeted.

Production currently stands at around 5,000 barrels per day, coming from Garmian’s Sarqala-1 well.

Currently all the group’s output is sold into Kurdistan’s domestic market.

At the end of the third quarter, 30 September, the company had $133mln in cash and cash equivalents.

During the three month period, the group generated US$4.9mln of revenue, at a realized oil price of $41.71/bbl, giving field netback of $3.8mln.

Shortly, Gazprom will become the operator of Garmian and the production ramp-up to 25,000 bopd is expected to accelerate.

Gazprom is expected to make the formalised transition to project operator during the first quarter and it will mark the first in a series of milestones as the project advances.

The full Garmian field development plan is currently being reviewed by the Kurdistan authorities and it is anticipated that the approval should also come in the early part of 2016 and that in turn allows the drilling of the Sarqala-2 well.

For Kurdamir, operated by Repsol, WesternZagros says the partners are working actively with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to advance to a finalised field development plan, expected in the first quarter of 2016 also.

With these two key projects apparently on verge of development it is worth noting that for all the well documented challenges, the business of producing oil and gas from the semi-autonomous region has proven to be resolute.

Some 600,000 barrels per day reportedly flow out of the area overseen by the semi-autonomous government, with more than 400,000 bopd said to be coming from KRG controlled fields.

At that level it is estimated that monthly export revenues would amount to about US$750mln.

Uncertainties over payments to oil producers have been a key concern for investors – and for the companyies for that matter – though recent changes have seen those worries ease somewhat.

The KRG began what it pledged would be regular payments to oil producers in September.

Such payments have initially been aimed at allowing companies to cover their costs, though larger payments are promised through 2016 in order to address arrears and encourage new investment.

Clearly, Kurdistan remains a very high risk and potentially high reward proposition.

And while the WesternZagros share price may tell one story, the outlook already appears significantly better than it did a number of months ago.

Should everything fall into line, sooner or later the Toronto-quoted shares will start to catch-up.


Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/bullboard/v.wzr/westernzagros-resources-ltd#dtxDdvdrHSyVCA6C.99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This probably deserves it's own thread...

Oil companies will be able to book the reserves in the ground, bonds will be sold on the international market, China has control of oil to fuel their New Silk Road. 

 

 

China is About to Take Control of Global Oil Markets

by Dr. Kent Moors | published April 26th, 2016
 

Some time ago, while I was advising on a refinery project in Ecuador, I explained here in Oil & Energy Investor how China’s oil policy was evolving.

The country’s objective used to be controlling oil production abroad, with the aim of transporting that oil back home.

But in 2013, Ecuador, the smallest of the OPEC producers, learned the hard way that this objective had changed. After running out of money, both Ecuador and its national oil company had to rely on loans from China to stay afloat.

In return, Beijing gained control over the revenue flow from Ecuadorian oil exports. The oil was allowed to flow anywhere, as long as the proceeds went back to China (as loan repayments).

Now, several of my sources are telling me that China is about to unleash the next step in its plan to control the world’s oil markets.

And this time, the targets can be found in an unsuspecting place. And in an unsuspecting fashion, too…

Iran and Iraq Have Both Been Given a Free Pass by OPEC

Before we get to China, let me first give you some background.

Low oil prices are hitting hard at two of oil’s central players, both of which are expecting to ramp up production – Iraq and Iran.

While both Iraq and Iran are members of OPEC, neither one has had a monthly OPEC production quota for some time. Those quotas are supposed to determine how much oil each member exports to world markets.

It used to be that OPEC calculated expected global demand and then deducted non-OPEC production. What’s left was called the “call on OPEC,” and was divided among members as a monthly quota.

Of course, there is no way to prevent countries from exceeding those quotas. And the current environment of “every country for itself” has effectively rendered the quotas moot.

Iraq continues to suffer from internal political discord, as well as the threat of Daesh. That’s the more pejorative way of referring to the abhorrence that calls itself the “Islamic State” (or IS), and I refuse to even imply that these monsters have anything resembling sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Iran was until recently under Western sanctions and is intent on returning to its pre-sanction production and export levels, as you’ve seen here in Oil & Energy Investor before.

But Iran’s desired volume – in excess of 4 million barrels a day – will probably be reached as early as June, just in time for the next meeting on capping global production, this one to be held in Moscow.

But those levels cannot be sustained, because of Iran’s significant internal problems in both fields and infrastructure.

Both Baghdad and Tehran require large amounts of investment to overcome growing production crises that will test their ability to obtain the export revenues they both need. But this investment is slow in coming. For Iraq, the upfront problems remain security and political instability – companies are worried that the production goals will be undermined by political discord.

This latter point deserves more emphasis than it has received in the West.

Daesh can never control – or even attack – the primary oil fields in Iraq’s Shiite-dominated south. But by putting pressure on a beleaguered government in Baghdad, they nonetheless accomplish the same objective: they paralyze the central administration, halting attempts to ramp up oil production.

OPEC has given both Iraq and Iran a multi-year delay in the enforcement of oil export quotas. In the current climate of excessive production, the quotas have not been applied.

But they will return in short order, especially if a production freeze is reached at the June meeting in Moscow.

However, the problem for both Iraq and Iran is arising from within…

Both Countries are in Desperate Need of Western Oil Expertise

Low oil prices have produced long delays in payments to providers of field services. In the case of Iraq, that problem is now also affecting the international oil company (IOC) majors running the oil fields.

In the case of Iran, sanctions have prevented foreign involvement – banning the Western technology and expertise Iran needs to keep its oil infrastructure from collapsing. Replacing Western companies with Chinese and even Russian field operators has been a disaster. Virtually all production in Iran is now done using domestic field services. That results in inferior, and sometimes nonexistent, work.

A deeper issue is the way both countries give out contracts. In Iraq, outside companies are provided a fixed payment per barrel extracted above a contracted target amount. The result is more properly to be regarded as a field service contract.

Meanwhile, in Iran the constitution and the law prohibit outsiders from owning either land or raw materials inside the country. This means that foreign companies must operate under very bulky and time-consuming buy-back contracts – in which a company is paid in produced oil according to fixed costs and prices negotiated at the beginning.

In neither case does the resulting contract approach anything resembling a joint venture. That means that

  1. the fields remain under the ownership of Iraqi and Iranian national oil companies;
  2. international oil majors (IOCs) cannot place any portion of these oil reserves on their own books.

Both countries have been searching for ways to make the investment more attractive. As you’ve read here before, Tehran has scheduled London meetings with financial sources on three recent occasions, only to have to cancel each time because there was no political consensus back home.

All of this has led to a significant new development – and a new opportunity for China…

This New Financing Approach is Opening the Gates for the Chinese

Baghdad has proposed paying its past due bills with currency bonds rather than cash. The Iraqi Finance Ministry has already begin deploying the paper in the face of an expanding 8%+ budget deficit. These bonds can be traded on the local market, and either cashed in at a discount or used at face value as collateral on loans.

Another approach now under development will apply these bonds to arrearages owed to IOCs. One idea is to use the value of oil reserves in the ground as collateral for these bonds.

It is a move that the IOCs might actually prefer, since it would give them at least some ability to “book” reserve values, albeit indirectly (through the face value of the bonds).

Iran already plays the game of “you pretend to work and we pretend to pay you” with its all-domestic service providers. But Tehran is now considering this bond approach as a possible way of bringing in foreign providers while at the same time avoiding any violations of local “ownership” restrictions.

What would really jumpstart this payment-in-bonds approach would be the ability to utilize the paper in broader local markets, both attracting some value in secondary trading and allowing the face value to work in broader collateral and trading situations. For that to happen, international banks must act as either guarantors of the paper or, in the case of additional issuances, as book runners for the placements.

Here is where the terrain may shift in a seismic way.

Word from several of my sources indicate that Chinese banks (with, of course, the official backing of the government in Beijing) may step in to provide these services.

The move would increase China’s presence in the oil sector on both sides of the Shatt al-Arab (the river separating Iraq and Iran), fund additional Chinese oil imports without actually shelling out hard currency, and take the next step in China’s increasingly sophisticated approach to other people’s oil: gain control over the financing of oil production in both Iran and Iraq.

Chinese national oil companies are already working on entering both the Iraqi and Iranian markets. But the Iraqi-Iranian bond approach will allow China to move ahead one more step in its plan.

Years ago, China would simply buy oil abroad and bring it home. Then, as in Ecuador, it acquired revenues from oil sales in international markets. Now, China wants to gain control over the financing of oil production in other countries.

And it looks like it’s going to work…

This may take geopolitics in the oil sector to a whole new level.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
       
 
 
Gulf Keystone Petroleum 

"Shaken Increasing Production"

Gulf Keystone is moving into field development and ramping up production at Shaikan, our world-class commercial discovery, following approval of the Field Development Plan and commissioning of two production facilities, PF-1 and PF-2.

Interesting wording, not looking to increase but increasing Production
  •  


Today we have this:
http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/.premium-1.730212

"This week it is expected to sign a memorandum of understandings with Tehran regarding construction of an oil pipeline through which it will be able to sell about 600,000 barrels of oil a day, via Iran, to the Persian Gulf and the rest of the world."



After the recent news that Shaikan is having a massive 36in pipeline built by the KRG and now a further high volume pipeline via Iran, the KRG are clearly expecting a massive ramp up in exports.

BUT... the KRG only have 3 IOC's exporting crude of any significance:

Gulf Keystone Petroleum ($15m p/m)
TAQ TAQ OPERATING COMPANY ($22m p/m)
DNO ($32m p/m)
Oryx ($1.4m p/m)
HKN ($200k p/m)
Gazprom ($1.8m p/m)


I'm very interested to know where the KRG are expecting a doubling of exports over the coming months/years to come from. We know Genel had a reserve downgrade at Tawke and now only have a third of the oil left in the Taq Taq field.... most likely it's Gulf Keystone Petroleum
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

** Gulf Keystone Petroleum rises 32 pct, taking two-day gains to 128 pct as a major restructure of the business continues

** Distressed debt funds set for large stakes in the Iraqi oil producer once a debt-for-equity swap completes

** Multiple traders cite a large short squeeze for the move on Monday and Tuesday

** Debt funds holding convertible bonds likely to be short stock to hedge against a deal falling through, and will need to close positions before the restructure completes

** Sothic Capital, understood to become a major shareholder if the restructuring completes, has been short the company's stock though 2016, though dropped below the 0.5 pct disclosure limit in May, according to FCA filings

** CapeView Capital the last hedge fund with a disclosed short at 0.78 pct

** Traders also cite Sunday Times report the company may be subject to a takeover bid once the restructuring is complete (Link:http://bit.ly/2a8suG9) as drawing in retail investors (stock the most active on a number of retail investment platforms on Tuesday)
** Investment managers TD, Hargreaves Lansdown and Barclays Wealth all in top 5 shareholders, suggesting a large amount of retail money in the stock



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2016. Click For Restrictions -http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, spacetuna said:

** Gulf Keystone Petroleum rises 32 pct, taking two-day gains to 128 pct as a major restructure of the business continues

** Distressed debt funds set for large stakes in the Iraqi oil producer once a debt-for-equity swap completes

** Multiple traders cite a large short squeeze for the move on Monday and Tuesday

** Debt funds holding convertible bonds likely to be short stock to hedge against a deal falling through, and will need to close positions before the restructure completes

** Sothic Capital, understood to become a major shareholder if the restructuring completes, has been short the company's stock though 2016, though dropped below the 0.5 pct disclosure limit in May, according to FCA filings

** CapeView Capital the last hedge fund with a disclosed short at 0.78 pct

** Traders also cite Sunday Times report the company may be subject to a takeover bid once the restructuring is complete (Link:http://bit.ly/2a8suG9) as drawing in retail investors (stock the most active on a number of retail investment platforms on Tuesday)
** Investment managers TD, Hargreaves Lansdown and Barclays Wealth all in top 5 shareholders, suggesting a large amount of retail money in the stock



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2016. Click For Restrictions -http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp

Spacetuna, thanks for the tips. I purchased a little bit of each stock. Scottrade works great for these stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Wiskey and Blueskyline! 

Gulf Keystone just gave it's shareholders a raw deal with the restructuring but if you got in at under ten cents I think there will still be money to be made in the long run.  With the new shares they issued it's never going to be a high dollar stock unless they do buybacks in the future. As I said before it was the most risky of all the stocks I listed, but they also have the most oil.   If they finally get paid by the KRG, oil prices rise further,  or if they are bought out I expect to make some money... just not the fortune I was hoping for on this stock.  I'm down a bit on Gulf Keystone but up on Western Zagros so it all evened out so far.  There is a big bid/ask spread on these stocks so don't buy in unless you are planning to hold for awhile.  I think things will be moving up before the end of this year. 

Here are the share forums for a few of the stocks so you can keep an eye on things. 

Gulf Keystone-  http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion;code=cotn:GKP.L

Shamaran http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.snm/shamaran-petroleum-corporation

Range Energy http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/c.rgo/range-energy-resources-inc

Genel http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:GENL.L

Western Zagros http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.wzr/westernzagros-resources-ltd

 

Gulf Keystone shares spike and plunge after junk bond deal

LONDON | BY ALASDAIR PAL AND DMITRY ZHDANNIKOV
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
 

Gulf Keystone's stock spiked and fell by a third on Tuesday as retail investors flooded chatrooms trying to figure out how junk bond funds led by former JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers traders will help restructure the oil firm.

Last week Gulf Keystone, crippled by low oil prices and non-payments from Iraqi Kurdistan, announced its bondholders had agreed to swap $500 million of debt for equity, all but wiping out some of the world's top funds as shareholders.

Little-known distressed debt funds such as Sothic Capital, co-run by former JPM trader Gertjan Koomen, and CapeView Capital, co-run for former Lehman trader Theo Phanos, are set to receive significant stakes, according to sources close to the firm and bond holders.

GLG Partners, part of hedge fund Man Group, and investment fund Taconic Capital are also likely to become large equity owners: debt-holders are set to get 85.5 percent of Gulf Keystone, while existing shareholders would hold just 4.5 percent unless they buy new shares in the $25 million open offer for 10 percent of the expanded equity.

On Tuesday, Gulf Keystone' stock rose 32 percent before erasing most of the gains. At 6 pence a share it was still at its highest since April, off last week's all-time lows of 2.5 pence. Its all-time high was 465 pence, when the firm was worth over 3 billion pounds ($4 billion).

 
 
 
 
 

Traded volumes spiked to an all-time high of 125 million shares, meaning over 10 percent of the firm changed hands on Tuesday driven mainly by retail investors.

Gulf Keystone was the most discussed stock by far on the Interactive Investor and ADVFN message boards, two of the most popular chat tools for retail investors in Britain.

Theories behind the stock jump ranged from an imminent hostile takeover on an improved debt outlook to a major liquidation of short positions by bond holders because they had managed to push the restructuring through last week and no longer needed short positions as hedges for convertible bonds.

"We've had some clients buying into it," said Jonathan Roy, advisory investment manager at Charles Hanover Investments, adding the restructuring had diluted the share price, but had now alleviated funding concerns.

"Their assets on the ground are attractive, in spite of the political instability, and there's often takeover talk surrounding Gulf Keystone," he added. He did not name a prospective bidder.

 

MORE VOLATILITY

Gulf Keystone's shareholders have yet to approve the debt swap and the drastic dilution. But the company has predicted insolvency if the deal doesn't go through.

That gives the likes of Sothic and CapeView a strong chance of becoming the driving forces behind changes at Gulf Keystone.

The two funds as well as GLG Partners and Taconic declined to comment.

In 2015, Sothic and CapeView both participated in a similarly complicated debt refinancing after low gold prices sapped Russia-focused, London-listed miner Petropavlovsk. The firm has since become a battleground for shareholders including Russian oil-to-metals tycoon Viktor Vekselberg.

Gulf Keystone has said it has had as many as 18 merger and acquisition approaches in the past but most buyers were spooked by heavy debt levels.

"Hedge funds will usually be on the shareholder register for a shorter period of time compared to longer-term investors, which increases volatility," said Sam Wahab, oil and gas analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.

 

(Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Additional reporting by Sudip Kar Gupta; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another oldie but goodie...

http://www.hannamandpartners.com/uploads/2015/10/Kurdistan-2.pdf

Kurdistan is one of few places left in the world where oil companies can acquire material exploration positions with large reserve potential on competitive commercial terms.

Recent security threats have curtailed consolidation activity and significantly driven down asset value for local explorers and producers.

This undervaluation presents several unique opportunities to acquire world class producing assets for a fraction of their value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.