Is the dinar speculator the 800 pound gorilla in the room

[ewingm]

I have listened to many people's opinions about how much dinar there is out of iraq's sovereign borders.  I realize that we will never actually know this for a certainty, but here is my premise.  I personally Know how much dinar is being held in my family's circle of friends.  I have actually helped count it in several situations.  I do not believe that my little piece of America is grossly different than any other part of America.  We certainly don't have a lock on the "buy dinar scam" .  Here's the facts.  Social Dinar said he knew some one who held five million dinar, but that was rare.  He said most people he knew held one million dinar or less.  In my circle of aquaintances, I know one lady who has 100 million dinar.  My personal family members hold approx. 150 million dinar.  The rest of their church is good for another 50 million or so.  That makes close to 300 million dinar held by one small church in one small town in one state in the US.  If we extrapolate that figure worldwide, it is quite easy to see that out of country speculators may hold 30-35 Trillion dinar.  They ALL want to cash in simultaneously if a big RV was announced.  The CBI is aware of this enormous number of dinar overseas.  Regardless of all other economic factors, the "speculator" is the 800 poumd gorilla in the room.  What do you think?

[Markinsa]

I have listened to many people's opinions about how much dinar there is out of iraq's sovereign borders.  I realize that we will never actually know this for a certainty, but here is my premise.  I personally Know how much dinar is being held in my family's circle of friends.  I have actually helped count it in several situations.  I do not believe that my little piece of America is grossly different than any other part of America.  We certainly don't have a lock on the "buy dinar scam" .  Here's the facts.  Social Dinar said he knew some one who held five million dinar, but that was rare.  He said most people he knew held one million dinar or less.  In my circle of aquaintances, I know one lady who has 100 million dinar.  My personal family members hold approx. 150 million dinar.  The rest of their church is good for another 50 million or so.  That makes close to 300 million dinar held by one small church in one small town in one state in the US.  If we extrapolate that figure worldwide, it is quite easy to see that out of country speculators may hold 30-35 Trillion dinar.  They ALL want to cash in simultaneously if a big RV was announced.  The CBI is aware of this enormous number of dinar overseas.  Regardless of all other economic factors, the "speculator" is the 800 poumd gorilla in the room.  What do you think?

 

The 2013 Financial Statements (Page 4) / Note 15 (Page 31) only show 40 Trillion IQD Issued...

[ewingm]

Yes, currency issued is currency that has been PHYSICALLY printed.  I read somewhere, (can't produce a link) that Iraq only requires approz. 5 Trillion dinars in currency to run the businesses.  Maybe some one can produce that link if they know where it can be found.  BUT, if its true, then there is a missing 35 TRILLION dinar in currency.  We all can agree that speculators worldwide, HOLD physical currency.  All that dinar has to be part of that 40 Trillion. But What percent is the question.?

[keepmwlknfny]

The 2013 Financial Statements (Page 4) / Note 15 (Page 31) only show 40 Trillion IQD Issued...

Do you think they can raise the value of the dinar with that much in circulation?

[Markinsa]

Do you think they can raise the value of the dinar with that much in circulation?

 

It depends on how much is in Bank Vaults on deposit and how much is in the physical market.  If all of it is in the physical market probably not.

[SocalDinar]

I have listened to many people's opinions about how much dinar there is out of iraq's sovereign borders.  I realize that we will never actually know this for a certainty, but here is my premise.  I personally Know how much dinar is being held in my family's circle of friends.  I have actually helped count it in several situations.  I do not believe that my little piece of America is grossly different than any other part of America.  We certainly don't have a lock on the "buy dinar scam" .  Here's the facts.  Social Dinar said he knew some one who held five million dinar, but that was rare.  He said most people he knew held one million dinar or less.  In my circle of aquaintances, I know one lady who has 100 million dinar.  My personal family members hold approx. 150 million dinar.  The rest of their church is good for another 50 million or so.  That makes close to 300 million dinar held by one small church in one small town in one state in the US.  If we extrapolate that figure worldwide, it is quite easy to see that out of country speculators may hold 30-35 Trillion dinar.  They ALL want to cash in simultaneously if a big RV was announced.  The CBI is aware of this enormous number of dinar overseas.  Regardless of all other economic factors, the "speculator" is the 800 poumd gorilla in the room.  What do you think?

150 Million????? WHAT!!!!!

Heck if they truly believed the hype of a $3.00 Rv that would be almost 1/2 a billion dollars???   Why would they need so much?  Your inner circles include some High rolling high risk gamblers.

Whatever you do don't let them go to Vegas with the deed to the Farm as it sounds like they have a gambling problem . It's  not a dinar problem.

[rockfl9]

It really doesn't matter WHO has it Or what form it is in , Whatever value the CBI puts on the dinar every dinar gets that value. be it in cash , checking , bonds or a loan. Can't differentiate !!! That currently is in excess of 80 trillion units.

[ewingm]

I have asked a question that has not received correct direction in the debate.  We all believe that the dinar is physically held by speculators overseas.  How much is held will never be known, but if my small world controls 250 million dinar, and I know that as FACT, it would be safe to assume that there is an enormous sum of iraqi dinars held by speculators.  If I can assume that, then I guarantee you that the CBI officials are well aware of that fact.  What makes the dinar RV different from any other currency speculation is the number of speculators just waiting to all cash-in.  Simultaneously.  There will be a huge 24 hour drain on the iraqi reserves to cope with dollars for dinars.  They can't handle that run on the bank.  They would NEVER allow that to happen with 90 TRILLION dinar out there.  I wish the dinarian community would just take a second and think about it from  realistic standpoint and not guru make believe. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by ewingm

[SocalDinar]

Ok Agreed Thats a heck of a lot of dinar. But hypothetically if the value were to increase in small increments as it did till 2009, would people sell off their dinar? At what point would people sell?

1/5th of a penny? 1/4 penny? Probably not. I always liked the theory that if  it slowly increased people would actually buy more dinar feeding the CBIs vaults as some cash out keeping a balance of sorts as the value slowly increased.

[SnowGlobe7]

So you are saying...that with so much..they will what do an "in country" trade in if they do raise the value?

[Markinsa]

I have asked a question that has not received correct direction in the debate.  We all believe that the dinar is physically held by speculators overseas.  How much is held will never be known, but if my small world controls 250 million dinar, and I know that as FACT, it would be safe to assume that there is an enormous sum of iraqi dinars held by speculators.  If I can assume that, then I guarantee you that the CBI officials are well aware of that fact.  What makes the dinar RV different from any other currency speculation is the number of speculators just waiting to all cash-in.  Simultaneously.  There will be a huge 24 hour drain on the iraqi reserves to cope with dollars for dinars.  They can't handle that run on the bank.  They would NEVER allow that to happen with 90 TRILLION dinar out there.  I wish the dinarian community would just take a second and think about it from  realistic standpoint and not guru make believe. 

 

You've got the mechanics of that ALL WRONG.  This doesn't affect the CBI's Reserves.  it is NOT the CBI that will be doing the exchanging.  Banks around the world may exchange and keep the Dinar in "THEIR" reserves, and may eventually exchange them with their Central Banks, which in turn may exchange them with the CBI.  This is not going to be an overnight drain on the CBI.

 

-

[ewingm]

No, SnowGlobe7.  I'm not saying they Will do an in-country trade.  I'm saying they WON'T perform an RV of even ten cents much less the $3 every dinarian is hoping for.  

What happened over the last seven years is worldwide speculation.  As the "secret" got out, hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people jumped into the dinar craze.  The CBI began cranking out 25,000 dinar bills to feed the demand(and I'm sure lucrative kick-backs).  The M2 rose from 10 Trillion to 90 Trillion dinar in less than a decade.  Now its out of the question to even consider an RV, DUE to huge speculator buying which hyper-inflated the M2.  The CBI wants to reconcile the problem by removing the three zeros.  That instantly turns 90 Trillion into 90 Billion dinar.  It also raises the exchange rate from .00086 to .86 instantly, which is what they have stated they want as well.  But that process takes a redenomination of the currency.  You would have to exchange what you now hold for the new currency.  As a speculator, you won't make a dime until they slowly raise the .86 to 1.0 or 1.25 over time.  You would lose more money in exchange commissions.

Edited November 9, 2014 by ewingm

[SnowGlobe7]

how do you feel...step by step... that Iraq will raise the value of their currency?

[rockfl9]

You've got the mechanics of that ALL WRONG.  This doesn't affect the CBI's Reserves.  it is NOT the CBI that will be doing the exchanging.  Banks around the world may exchange and keep the Dinar in "THEIR" reserves, and may eventually exchange them with their Central Banks, which in turn may exchange them with the CBI.  This is not going to be an overnight drain on the CBI.

 -

Markinsa";The IQD can become a "reserve currency " when the IMF declares it and the major countries accept it as such,. Today all the reserve currencies are there BECAUSE those countries central banks agree to convert the currency without limit. Iraq today will not provide that guarantee. Thus It cannot be held as a tier 2 currency. No US bank can hold it.

[Markinsa]

Markinsa";The IQD can become a "reserve currency " when the IMF declares it and the major countries accept it as such,. Today all the reserve currencies are there BECAUSE those countries central banks agree to convert the currency without limit. Iraq today will not provide that guarantee. Thus It cannot be held as a tier 2 currency. No US bank can hold it.

 

Please provide the US Law, Regulation, etc, that states that.

 

.

[dontlop]

It all falls under the terms of imf article 8

When Iraq decides it will accept those obligations it will be accepted

But the dinar is already being persued

("We are exploring possibilities…)

NEW DELHI: Faced with declining value of rupee and volatile exchange rate, India is exploring the possibility of bilateral trade with Iraq in domestic currencies, Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said today.

The issue of payment for trade in local currencies will be discussed during the bilateral meetings between visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Kamil Al-Maliki and Indian Ministers.

Quit crying ewingm and rock head

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-08-23/news/41440904_1_exchange-rate-volatility-rupee-currencies

[ewingm]

I find it funny that you are even discussing the iraqi dinar in same sentence as reserve currency.  1166 to 1 does not look like any reserve currency I've ever heard of.  

Markinsa,  if iraq were to RV the dinar, AND the speculators all were able to exchange dinars for dollars in the US ( which they can't) the banks would send the dinars to the Federal Reserve Bank in exchange for dollars.  The Feds don't want trillions of dinars.  They would send them to Iraq for dollars.  That's where the CBI reserves get drained.  They would have to give the Fed dollars for dinars and they just don't have close to enough to do that.  You might be tempted to say that the CBI would just credit the exchange electronically, but they would still have to subtract the sum from their reserves.  You can't just make up money.

[Markinsa]

I find it funny that you are even discussing the iraqi dinar in same sentence as reserve currency.  1166 to 1 does not look like any reserve currency I've ever heard of.  

Markinsa,  if iraq were to RV the dinar, AND the speculators all were able to exchange dinars for dollars in the US ( which they can't) the banks would send the dinars to the Federal Reserve Bank in exchange for dollars.  The Feds don't want trillions of dinars.  They would send them to Iraq for dollars.  That's where the CBI reserves get drained.  They would have to give the Fed dollars for dinars and they just don't have close to enough to do that.  You might be tempted to say that the CBI would just credit the exchange electronically, but they would still have to subtract the sum from their reserves.  You can't just make up money.

 

Of course at 1166 to 1, the Dinar wouldn't be a reserve currency, 

 

+

[rockfl9]

Ewingm : could have not said it better.

The CBI MUST agree to send dollars, euros or yen for any central bank that presents dinar to them ....When they do you will have the the international dinar. There are just too much dinar out of country for them to do that !

[Markinsa]

Ewingm : could have not said it better.

The CBI MUST agree to send dollars, euros or yen for any central bank that presents dinar to them ....When they do you will have the the international dinar. There are just too much dinar out of country for them to do that !

 

Oh, someone educate me, why are you guys saying the CBI will have to give back Dollars for Dinar?  The CBI only prints Dinar.  They are only libel to exchange Dinar for Dinar. Not Dinar for Dollars, Euros, Yen, Etc.  

[ewingm]

So Markinsa, what you think is that the Feds would just get stuck holding the trillions of exchanged dinars in the US if an RV happened?  Really?  Do you think the Fed wants to hold 30 Trillion dinar indefinitely after giving speculators 30 Trillion dollars at the banks?  No wonder the dinar craze captured so many people.  You just don't know how money is exchanged worldwide.

[Markinsa]

So Markinsa, what you think is that the Feds would just get stuck holding the trillions of exchanged dinars in the US if an RV happened?  Really?  Do you think the Fed wants to hold 30 Trillion dinar indefinitely after giving speculators 30 Trillion dollars at the banks?  No wonder the dinar craze captured so many people.  You just don't know how money is exchanged worldwide.

 

Sure why not, doesn't every country in the World have Dollars they can't do anything with?   What's the United States going to do when China, GB, Japan, and Russia come knocking with the Dollars they hold?  Demand Yuan, Pound, Yen and Rubles? What a laugh!

 

-

[rockfl9]

Oh, someone educate me, why are you guys saying the CBI will have to give back Dollars for Dinar?  The CBI only prints Dinar.  They are only libel to exchange Dinar for Dinar. Not Dinar for Dollars, Euros, Yen, Etc.  

m

Markinsa !!! What you say are true...That is the problem ... The CBI WILl NOT return any dollars , euro etc. SO any dinar you hold are DOOMED to remain dinar forever , never to become dollars. NO central bank will take dinar under those conditions.

[Markinsa]

m

Markinsa !!! What you say are true...That is the problem ... The CBI WILl NOT return any dollars , euro etc. SO any dinar you hold are DOOMED to remain dinar forever , never to become dollars. NO central bank will take dinar under those conditions.

 

Dude, you still don't get it.  As long as someone thinks the Dinar has value, it will be exchangeable, and can be converted into whatever other form of value there is.  If the CBI tells the World that the Dinar exchange rate is 1:1 with the US Dollar and the World buys it, good for us and bad for you!

 

-

[rockfl9]

Sure why not, doesn't every country in the World have Dollars they can't do anything with?   What's the United States going to do when China, GB, Japan, and Russia come knocking with the Dollars they hold?  Demand Yuan, Pound, Yen and Rubles? What a laugh!

 

-

WHA??? If China had enough dollars they could buy the Empire State Building ! Whoops they did ! That's the value of a dollar.

WHA??? If China had enough dollars they could buy the Empire State Building ! Whoops they did ! That's the value of a dollar.

My mistake . It was only Rockifeller Center. No big deal! The point is as long as we have the stability of value in the USA people will want DOLLARS.