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About rockfl9

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  1. Of course IF you have dinar to sell you would love to get a dollar for it .. But what if you dont have dinar , WHY would you give up a solid dollar???. WHO would buy ANY ? TRUE the CBI has the option of setting the price to buy/sell the dinar in Iraq and the Iraqi economy will rise or fall on that decision. OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTRY the value of the dinar is set by the DEMAND in the market not what the CBI says it is ! It must compete with ALL other currencies on basic value alone. 99% of all currency exchanges are made to buy some product or service , NOT to just accumulate in the hope of a profit. IF the dinar was UNDERVALUED as the GURUs want you to believe the CBI would have fixed that long ago by gradually improving it . The IQD rate started at about 4000:1 in 2003 and gradually improved to 1170. Now iT has moved to 1190 BECAUSE that is where the CBI/MOF believe it SHOULD BE in the best interest of the country. You think that the rate MUST be increased to make the IQD an Internationally trade-able currency . BS ! It could trade at that rate today IF the GOI wanted to. They have many good reasons T NOT TO ! As long as the GOI has enough USD coming in to buy what it needs it will get along just fine. As time goes on and the normal pressures of growth set in the CBI may need to change the rate BUT I would not be surprised to see it edge to 1200+ . WHY , Because that is the historical trend of all currencies.
  2. I guess I will have to help with this. Of course the GURUs are telling you that when the RV happens the BANKS will all fall all al over them selves to get your dinar . Call centers , back room screens and all that.. They will expect your business , but dont let your dinar out of sight till you see the dollars . Well forget that . When a bank sells a foreign currency IT never expects to see it again. You were expected to travel and leave it there not bring it back. Taking in an illliquid currency is messy/risky business. A legitimate bank wont do it at any price. The FOREX market is an all electronic market. There is no provision to buy/sell physical currency in that market. Physical currency is handled by agencies created to do that . The agency works with the central bank of the originating country. Although if the markup is big enough clandestine operators ( read IQD dealers ) will spring up. PRAY that there never is a major change up or down in the exchange rate because if there is the dealer system will fold up over night . Well maybe not , this unscrupulous bunch may find a way to make money on the way out of business.
  3. It has nothing to do with RV/RI > It is simply a cash management system, Iraq is living day to day on oil sales, but they only get paid when the oil is delivered. they may go days without any income but they need to pay for imports when they are ordered ( or at least know the funds are available in the proper accounts). They need to be sure that food, medicines and fuel are fully funded while other items like trucks., clothing and jewelry are lower priority . SO when an importer BIDS for dollars he must justify the allotment ,,. So it is not an AUCTION in the true sense of the word but it is an allocation system. It is also a monitoring tool . If an importer requests $1Mil to import cooking oil the issuing bank is supposed to get a warehouse receipt that the correct amount was delivered. Here is where the money laundering can exist , The order was for $1mil of oil but maybe only $900K was delivered , the importer skimmed off the money and left it in an offshore account. Don't expect it to go away SOON.
  4. I do my best THINKING when talking to my self. Like just the other day I asked myself " What would happen if they just increased the rate 100% " ( only a double ) Self said " Well at the next auction they would only get half as many dinar " . Then they could just put in twice the number of dollars to make up. YEAH. And the next day and the next until they ran out of dollars . THEN WHAT ? Everything stops because we know the country runs on dollars. Well maybe not , The CBI could just print more dinar, Witch is what bankrupt countries usually do ! Then self said " CBI bankers arent that stupid they know that would happen and never change the rate 100% at one time ... Then I went to sleep.
  5. OH some dinarians would say just change the rate to a dollar and make it International , now ALL the IQD in the world would be worth a dollar . Take it to a bank and exchange , NO extra oil is needed ! Easy-peasy.
  6. NOW wouldn't you think that IF the RV of the dinar would give Iraqis MORE purchasing power and raise the standard of living that the CBI/MOF/GOI would not just DO IT ! I am sure they would .. BUT there must be a problem there. There is at least one, there would have to be a corresponding increase in oil revenues to cover the increase . BUT those revenues could only increase a few percentage points a year. There is no magic, Just to double the exchange rate would require at least double the oil production ! Given the time to drill a well lay the pipes and expand shipping capacity it would take years .
  7. At least a few Dinarians are questioning that MAYBE the current exchange rate is what it should be ! When Shabibi tried to change it to 1166 IT didnt hold and had to go back to 1180 and now is 1190. HMMMMM! Iraq has more needs than money , WHY would it plan to give it away. A look into the future: The population is increasing at a greater rate than income. More are joining the ranks of unemployed adding to welfare costs. Not enough safe water. Not enough electricity. Poor sanitation. Need to import more food. A financial death-spiral.
  8. Thanks Cranman. Coins would be a sign that the CBI has locked in a rate. The key category would be the one dinar coin . It would be a big commitment . A penny costs our mint over 2 cents to make and that is only because of the mints superior efficiency. I dont see dinar coins comming for a while.
  9. Didnt take long for the GooooRUS to twist a simple announcement into a form of preannounce of an RV/RD! Truth is Iraq is a cash economy. Merchants dont have POS and cc readers like we have here , they must make change in cash. The only thing this announcement means is that they are getting tight on available small notes . They dont have coins that last a long time . The small notes are folded and handled carelessly so they wear out fast. Inability to make change will shutdown a small business. All this special window does is allow a merchant to send employee with a couple of 25K notes to this window to get a quick handfull of smalls to keep his business going .. THAT's ALL. Note however that every note , even the smallest costs 6 cents ( that's 72 dinar) to replace !!!! That is an expense to the CBI. That is why the 50 note is gone. The 100 will be next.
  10. Anyone have the answer? Did anyone RESEARCH this ? Hmmmmm I guess not .
  11. EC of course you are correct , rate stability is the target for all Central banks. My point was that if Iraq would go thru with the issue of a completely new currency they should use a 1,5,10,20, etc distribution like the dollar , euro and other modern currencies . Sure the rate would take a big jump with the LOP internally but Internationally it would be 1USD= .86 IQN = 1.12.Euro = 1.56 GBP etc. Certainly easier to convert.
  12. If they LOP the value of the term " One Iraqi Dinar" would mean the equivalent of $0.86 ! That would fit very well in international trade. Current monetary policy is not to allow the dinar to trade outside the country. A LOP and free trade could be what is meant . But would that be only with the NEW DINAR ? The reason for that is that it is suspected that a lot of IQD was stolen an exists somewhere outside of the country and they don't want to honor it even in LOPed form..
  13. Not so easy Zul. To be sure the LOP is a pure neutral conversion they need a law to dictate how the conversion of wages, prices and accounts will legally take place and penalties for failure to follow. If you looked at the Turkish LOP the law was very detailed and took about 20 pages. Also we don't know how the MOF measures inflation and with all of the welfare and allowances given the average citizen the prices for normal food and fuel are kept flat.
  14. Dinarians like to think that the IQD doesnt need a lop because it did not suffer inflation ... The Sadam dinar WAS inflated ! When the CPA issued the IQD they did not see a way to exchange at a rate less than one to one which would have left some Iraqi's with notes that could not be exchanged unless they had coins. That would wave taken more time and the CPAs plan was to get the Sadam notes off the street ASAP. The one to one rate carried the inflation over to the new currency.
  15. Hard to estimate how much IQD exists in the USA let alone WW. Although I would have expected the GOI to have cracked down on the smuggling of IQD by now the dealers still seem to be able to get a lot of uncirculated IQD. !!!!! It could be leaked out thru the CBI itself???? What good would it do for the country IF the CBI RVd The IQD and the Peepl still needed to use USD to import stuff? The cost in USD would remain the same.
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