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rockfl9

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About rockfl9

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  1. I dont know how the HCL is involved with a rate change . I have not seen any details with the latest draft law. But the last one back in 2010 had several flaws. First it only offered $2 / bbl to the producing provinces and they expected $5. Second , it required all flaring be eliminated in 4 years. This would require scrubbers and processors and the associated piping at every oil field. Very expensive.and reduces output. Third, ALL present and future oil fields were to come under direct control of the National Oil Company. The Kurds would NEVER agree to that. Finally and most important the current oil management like their jobs just the way they are,
  2. Here is complete text submitted by Yota on Sept 28. Economy News - Baghdad Ali Mohsen Ismail, chairman of the Council for Combating Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing, has issued a series of decisions concerning the controls on the declaration of funds when they are brought in and taken out across the Iraqi border. Among the new decisions, customs authorities may be allowed to search people and inspect their luggage to verify the authenticity of the information. As for the amounts allowed in or out of the territory of the Republic of Iraq, amounts below (10) thousand US dollars or the equivalent of other currencies are allowed to enter without authorization. Amounts exceeding (10) thousand US dollars to (20) thousand US Dollars are required to be declared with the need to show supporting the purpose of the introduction or removal of these amounts. It is required that the process of inserting and removing funds through financial institutions exclusively if the amount exceeds (20) thousand US dollars. One of the decisions stipulates that "the entry and exit of amounts exceeding (1,000,000) (one million Iraqi dinars) is prohibited even if they have been declared, and the amount is withheld and legal proceedings are taken." Earlier rulings limited Iraqis to caring 10,000 Iqd out of the country. Not sure what the penalty was then. now for 1 mil it looks like they are subject to arrest !
  3. One of the decisions stipulates that "the entry and exit of amounts exceeding (1,000,000) (one million Iraqi dinars) is prohibited even if they have been declared, and the amount is withheld and legal proceedings are taken." Hmmmmmmm! This looks like a Million OR more Iqd is NOT allowed to cross the border ( would include airports) at all. AND sounds like it would be subject to confiscation and prosecution !!!!!! Soo you cant even take your IQD back to Iraq if you wanted to !!! Is this preparation for an RD ?
  4. The last 2 budget deficits were covered by Borrowing dollars from the CBI reserves !!! Yes they did. The CBI is sitting on $40B of GOI IOUs ... There is not enough dollars in the CBI to cover next years deficit. BUT they do not want incur any more outside debt . The interest rate would be very high if they tried. The default risk would be high. Predictions for oil revenues in 2020 are not good and the estimate of $56 per barrel still depends on being able to sell as much as the have been , But that also is questionable. It will be a make or break year.
  5. As part of the IMF SBA agreement the CBI/MOF are reviewed regularly and by its own rules is audited annually , There is no second set of books as a few(?) dinarians spout. The IMF is a credible organization and would not report inaccurate information . There ARE 40 Trillion IQD in CIRCULATION TODAY. None has been collected and destroyed to reduce that amount! It is true that some is outside of Iraq (DUH ). The IQD is a PEGGED currency and the CBI is holding the peg at .00086 USD (or equivalent ) in hard reserves. Since Iraq's base income is in Petrodollars that rate is used to establish a budget. THERE is NO plan to arbitrarily change the value of the IQD as many are counting on .. To increase the value requires a increase in the banks reserves or the CBI will FAIL. The GOI cannot allow that to happen. There is speculation that the world financial community will begin to allow ASSET BASED exchange rates. Highly unlikely as the future value of any such assets is difficult to predict even into the next year. AS for other natural resources the bicracky irackes might have ??? WE certainly would have read about them by now - THERE aren't any.
  6. I still have some hope for the book CAZ. BUT like the IQD it is hungup going nowhere at present . I have read that "things are moving" . But I dont see it. Of course it may only mean that we are really THERE. At least for another YEAR.
  7. In order for the IQD to show up on FOREX at $.10 someone ( A REAL PERSON would have to pony up $100,000 ).. I don't know WHO would do that ? WHO would be crazy enough to give up $100K of the worlds safest currency to buy a million IQD probably the riskiest currency !
  8. IF you look at the summary spreadsheet attached to the report you would see that Iraq is in trouble. The IMF team has been telling them to cut spending . That means shrink the government cut subsidies and entitlements .. But any of those moves threatens the status quo. Akin to stepping on the third rail. While there is a projected increase in GDP it comes at the expense of increased national debt USD 115 Bn in '19 to 167 Bn in 2024. It would be worse except that they cover parts of the deficits by raiding the CBI reserves. At the same time the CBI increases total IQD by 5% each year, Although the numbers after 2019 are projections , the IMF team have been pretty good with them so far. concern should be that if they are correct Iraq will be a basket-case after 2024. They will again be asking for debt relief .
  9. One point on the IMF Arti IV . I am sure that The MOF gets a look at the report before it is released and can ask for some changes. It would not serve any purpose to point out specific failures of the government. It would always tend eto report things as areas for improvement even if there was some actual foul ups. So the reason for delay may simply be the need for a little wordsmithing.
  10. ALL of Iraq has just ONE MAJOR source of income - Oil/Gas Revenue PERIOD... Today at $65 per bbl the TOTAL is about $75-80 Bn per YEAR . IEA estimates that the price wont change much next year UNLESS the voluntary controls are violated which will only lower the price . SO no matter what value they might change the dinar to , the entire budget of the country is tied to the price of oil. Oil in the GROUND cannot put bread on the Iraqi's table. There are no schemes that can change that. THERE is NO magical solution. The GOI has in the past solved the general unemployment problem by adding more government workers and the last two IMF Art iV reports have pointed that out as a problem. Iraq is facing one big problem IT gets more people every year. IT cannot hire and pay them all. It will soon hit the wall. If it were not for government subsidies there would be major poverty and civil unrest today BUT those problems may not be far off. They talk of reducing the dependence on oil BUT they are looking for outside investment to do that .. However I do not see any serious movement in that direction .In reality Iraq has little to offer. Insufficient electric and water limits industrialization . I am eager to see what they are going to propose in the next budget!
  11. I believe most there is a pile of money available to exchange for IQD just waiting for the CBI to set the RV rate ! And the FOREX will follow. WELL that's not the case. The International rate for a currency exchange is set by supply and demand PERIOD. The FOREX is just a reporting service it doesnt set a rate. When someone DEMANDS a currency a deal is made at some price and that price is reported on the FOREX ticker. If there is NO demand there will not be a sale .. AND there will not be a rate on FOREX. Even IF there was a single trade at some price that trade will only setup the next OFFER to sell , and we need to see continued DEMAND . IT IS A BUYERS MARKET. The CBI could set a 10 cent rate but that would only be valid in IRAQ. IT cant force that rate on the outside world UNLESS it also was willing to BUY at that rate on the outside. BUT WHY would it give up any of its hard money reserves to buy its own currency when it could just print more? Here is the kicker ... The central bank is usually the buyer of last resort for its currency...BUT usually at a ridiculously low price .
  12. I see a few are beginning to question WHO has the button ? Most think it is the gov of the CBI. Well about this time last year there was a court ruling that the MOF controls the CBI and would play a part in the change of rate. Most of you missed that because it was buried in the news and didnt show up in rumors or gooru poo. Shortly after that ruling the CBI loaned the MOF $20Bn to balance the 2018 budget !!!!! I havent seen any report this year but guess that they loaned another 20 this year. SO $40 Bn of the reserves are actually GOI dollar bonds! Ordinarily a central bank wouldnt do that but Iraq was not able to sell the bonds at a reasonable rate to anyone else. NOW the MOFs biggest problem is getting enough dinar to meet the monthly payroll. It only has a limited amount of oil dollars to put into the auctions. That being the case Would the MOF accept a new rate that would result in FEWER dinar per dollar than the 1190 they get today??? I dont think so. They would like a higher rate like 1300 but that would put more people below the poverty line. If the last $20 BN goes the same way next year the GOI is at the wall !
  13. Caz , You dealer shills can really get nasty.
  14. Lopsters are not permitted to post on other forums.. Although we can read them. Before I was banished to the tank I did ask AM where the banks would find the dollars to buy your dinar ., His answer was to read the cash-in guide .. I did ,again, and did not find anywhere that explained where. The assumption was that the RV would attract a lot of new buyers . By this time the RV story is well known in investor circles. If any one EVER believed in the possibility of an increase in value they would already be IN. Investors goal is to make a profit with reasonable odds. If the dinar was to increase in value after this 15 year ride , how long would it be for the next increase??? The fact is that a bank will buy the dinar FOR A CLIENT after a request to purchase is made NOT BEFORE. It is not going to buy some and WAIT . That is not normal bank practice. The 800#s and call centers are GOORU POO.
  15. Help me out CAZ. If there were to be a 10 cent RV that would make your 1 mil IQD worth $100000 . WHY would a savvy investor pay that ? There is no pile of dollars that will become available just because the CBI decides to change the rate. The CBI is not going to dip into its reserves and send the money out of Iraq . The people who now own IQD will be stuck with it regardless of what the rate is . At least they can stick it back to the dealers and take a small loss. But if they wait and they DO RD , it will be worthless for sure. This is a well organized CON GAME..
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