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Everything posted by rockfl9

  1. at the 1190 rate the CBI would be in DEFAULT within A YEAR IS WHAT Alawi was saying . In default the CBI no longer controls the rate , Then the GOI has no control over the sources for the budget, YOU dont want that . Alawi is trying to prepare the next government . In spite of a year of slightly better oil income the finances are weak. The CBI web site is not clear about what the actual reserves are, but it is clear that the amount of IQD have increased. When he was appointed Kazimi said it woud be for only one term. He may be asked to say on but that would be at his option and he may demand more control to do so. If the current rate doesnt keep the CBI on the BLACK they will have to devalue again.
  2. Although he may be a little optimistic ! When the CBI devalued the dinar the new rate should have been about 1600. But the MOF/CBI realized that would be too harsh. So they made an assumption that oil prices would recover and something would result in more employment. Neither happened and all the while the population has increased. So the budget will start off in no better shape than it was in 2021. The obvious choice would be another devaluation. But a new PM and MOF may not do it! They may choose to default or seek new loans. That would not be good.
  3. Would any central bank announce or merely indicate that it might change the exchange rate , either way ? NOOO They will just do it , instantly. Any delay would give rise to currency manipulation. Example, was there any advance news of the Devaluation last December . NOO. Did Shabibi warn when he changed the rate back in 2008? NOO. A devaluation would cause a panic. So forget the idea that the CBI is educating the Iraqi's in prep for a RV. That's a rumor courtesy of your friendly liars . The Kurds are better educated than your typical Iraqi. They are right a 1:1 rate IS IMPOSSIBLE. YOU should know that . Although even a TENTH of a cent is IMPOSSIBLE today. Ypu should know that too!
  4. Breitling IS WRONG ! The CBI site is reporting 75T IQD issued,as of Aug,2021. That is the M1. Add checking ,saving and debit cards it goes to 104T Iqd. That is the M2 number . There is no GOLD included in M2 > The CBI is not and has not been taking Iqd out of circulation. If it were you can bet there would be loud complaints. Breitling is a smooth talking PUMPER , just saying what you like to hear.
  5. I know the guru/pumpers want you to think that the reason is that the cant make a profit , that is BUNK . A bank will charge the same commission selling dinar as any other currency ( 5-6%). The real problem is that IF they bought it they may have to wait some time before they found a buyer. That is a risk. The currency MIGHT DEVALUE while they held it . It would be unethical to sell dinar and not offer to buy it back. BUT there may also be another reason. The dinar is not really a true currency "internationally",, the bank would be buying and selling a "collectable" . I wonder do the banking laws allow that ????
  6. Even If there would be an rv of the dinar there is no guarantee that banks would be interested in "exchanging " dinar. First of all banks don't just buy a currency outright. They do it because a customer somewhere has ORDERED IT! Iraq is a poor ,unstable country. Oil in the ground has no value until it is SOLD. The US could pull-out , ISIS/Taliban could move in and throw the country in dis-array and the currency would be severely devalued. The reason banks dont deal with dinar today is that no legitimate customer wants it.
  7. This week the CBI announced the reserves increased to $62.115B. Using the .000680 rate that converts to 91,4T dinar in circulation.. The CBI website reports that there are 117T dinar in M! ( i.e. cash plus deposits and savings ) That means that at the current rate the CBI liabilities are only 78% funded. The reserves are SHORT 25.5 Trillion dinar .. At the latest rate of increase they MAY be able to cut that in half. That would still require a 12% reduction in the exchange rate in December. I know they promised not to reduce the rate again. BUT let us see what they will do !
  8. Doing a little research. The Treasury DOES NOT deal with local banks, only Federal reserve district banks , thats where your tax payments go ! The FED controls all the local banks in the system. But at this time it does not hold ANY FX. If a local bank buys any foreign currency it is on it's own. Forget that option.
  9. DUH ! Isn't that logical !!! IF or WHEN a US bank IS "exchanging " dinar , then of course it would have to use SOME value as the unit of exchange . That value could just be .00068 or LOWER.
  10. Who is arguing? The only reserves the USA holds is GOLD, nothing else. The dollar is the preferred reserve currency of the world. WHY would the Treasury want to accumulate an inferior currency. In case you have not heard -- Electric cars and trucks are IN !!! Less demand for oil. Oil producing countries have seen their best days. The expectation of external investment in Iraq is very limited because of the restrictions of Islamic/Sharia law.
  11. YOU really need to take a course in International Banking. When Egypt switched to a float the value went DOWN 11% overnight, It was expected to be worse. A country would only WANT IQD IF it wanted to BUY something made in Iraq. Iraq desperately NEEDS to produce something to EXPORT besides OIL. Especially something that will use a lot of local labor. This is the private market they keep talking about . Getting something started and training enough people will take years,
  12. Rvmydinar : Longtimelurker is WRONG ! The Treasury and FED ONLY deal in dollars. There is NO market for IQD in the US at any exchange rate except for those individuals that BELIEVE in a potential RV. WHY would they give up USD just to hold dinar??? That's stoopid ! P.S. OIL is bought in ALL currencies , not just dollars. The bidding is formally one in dollars as a convenience. For example, a ECC country will bid in dollars BUT it will settle in Euros .. If a US bank were to EVER take in dinar . It would be because somewhere there IS an ORDER to buy it. Once that order is filled the bank will WAIT for another order. THERE will not be a massive exchange process , Ie 800#s , and special exchange offices. But IMO that will never happen.
  13. The Dinar RV has been a classic example of intrigue since day one . If you think the dinar will FLOAT , it is possible. But that means the CBI has thrown in the towel and no longer controls the rate. You dont want that to happen. When a currency switches to a float ( like Egypt ) it looses value.
  14. ???? WHY isn't the IQD "international" today.. In fact, NO major bank will buy or sell it !! Iraq does not allow citizens to take more than 1000 in or out of the country. Iraq specifically does not want IQD out of the country . Iraqi's must pay for all imports in dollars euros etc. The only reason to have IQD today is if you were planning a trip to Iraq, but they would prefer you gave dollars. NO US bank is obligated to do FX . It is done as a customer service and they dont profit from it. Generally you will need to be a customer. Smaller banks dont do it.
  15. The IQD is a PEGGED currency, that is MOF/CBI policy. The rumor that the rate is being HELD low and the CBI could UP the rate 10000% overnight is GOORUU POO! The rate is what it is due to the amount of reserves in the CBI, nothing more. The only way for the rate to simply double would be to double the amount of reserves. because of the number of dinar in circulation the CBI would need to ADD about 40 BILLION dollars to their reserves. Due to financial constraints that is impossible . As far as being able to exchange dinar at a US bank that is also a RUMOR. Technically dinar is EXCLUSIVE to Iraq. NO dinar can legally leave or return to Iraq. It is Officially a NON-convertible item.. All banks know that, so if they were to take-in dinar they take the risk of a TOTAL LOSS.
  16. M2 is now 143 T IQD ! M0 (printed Dinar ) increased from 74.6 T to 82 T so far this year .! So they are making more dinar. Not taking it in. So a 1:1 would now require 143 T USD in reserves. THAT is impossible.
  17. Re: Lithium America Corp ! I bought some a year ago at under $5. It got up into $20s but fell back. But still not making money. Average EV needs 150+ pounds of Li per car today. We will need a lot. Never found in pure form , effective refining is the problem. Another is battery technology. Don't need pure LI a compound high in LI will do. The battery technology is still in its infancy, we may not yet have the best . I see a great advantage in EVs . P.S. Parts of the omnibus Infrastructure bill in congress include grants for charging stations as well as an EV rebate of up to $12,500.!
  18. I had similar thoughts about younger generations 25 years ago. my fear was they would crash and burn and take me with them. Alas they are still here and there are more of them. The good life spoiled them. No stress , easy credit , Covid 19 would have been a good test but the government stepped in and solved all the problems for them. EVs seem expensive today because they fit in the luxury class ( or almost) with a lot of "extras" as standard . Batteries and drive motors are high on the learning curve. When they figure out how to make them economically the price will come down . then when the market matures some one will build the electric model T.
  19. A generating station regardless of the fuel used is a lot more efficient and cleaner . Electric wont replace all . There will always be a need for work vehicles powered by oil. It may take a while for the power companies to adjust but I have faith that the power will be there. actually it is easier to construct a power station than it is to build a refinery.
  20. STOP and have a THINK. The CBI can't create DOLLARS or any other currency. The FOREX doesn't create money it just MOVES it from SELLER to BUYER. 'BANKS don't BUY and HOLD FX they just broker it for a FX dealer (if they have one) SOOOO where is the money going to come from???? The FX dealer will have to find a buyer willing to pay the price. IT is called the GREATER FOOL theory. FX dealers are very smart people and they don't like to loose money. By now it should have been clear that the GooRoos that predict rates and dates ARE ALL LIES always were. The CBI is taking a lot of HEAT for devaluing the dinar . WHY did they do that ?? Because they gambled a lot of their reserves during all those years propping up the value when they should have allowed a gradual inflation. The small rise in the price of oil is not enough . They will see an increase in import costs due to world inflation this year which will easily eat up any gains in oil. I expect another devaluation by December if they want to prevent a CBI default.
  21. Accounting involves ADDITION and SUBTRACTION two very basic MATH functions . You must be confused ! Another thing The CBI can't know How many dinar are in-country , out of country , lost , buried or destroyed. So ALL dinar is considered In circulation no matter where it is. ALL 120 trillion of them . When a country DEVALUES its currency it must release MORE to compensate for the necessary price increases.
  22. It is a simple ratio problem. Dollars per Dinar. It's just Math. Now the numbers I got from the 2018 annual report, which I just happen to have a copy. I could not find one for 2019 and 2020. But note those numbers numbers show the exchange rate should have been .0068 way back then !!!! But the CBI was exchanging at the .0086. rate. The CBI website now shows the M2 at a little more than 124 Trillion Dinar. But they no longer show the amount of reserve s ??? So things could be worse . Maybe the 2000 number that the Ecomist brought up is the real NEW rate. .0050 !!!!!
  23. Dinarians have to take their RV colored glasses off and THINK. Iraq NEEDS a foreign INvestment that will put a lot of Iraqis to work that will produce a shippable product to the world at a competitive price. COMMON sense says it can't do that with an expensive currency. Some countries purposely DEVALUE their currency to produce cheap labor . Iraqis do not appear to have modern manual skills. Everyone tries to get a government (desk) job . Government jobs generally do not add to national income (GDP) . Another problem is that Iraq does not have the kind of natural resources that produce shippable products. Most modern manufacturing requires electriciy and water and those are limited.
  24. You are right SD. AND a RV of one CENT would need 1 Trillion USD. The equation for exchange rate ( EC ) with the dollar is : Value of the reserves in USD 68 Billion USD ___________________________ == IQD EC for the IQD today ______________________ = .000068 Total liability in local currency 100 TRILLION IQD No one can change that ! Oil in the ground is an estimating tool. It only has real value when shipped. No one knows what oil will be worth in 2050 OR how much will be needed, BUT iraq wiil have 40 MILLION more people to feed.
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