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rockfl9

Lopster
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Everything posted by rockfl9

  1. rockfl9

    Letus have a THINK

    On a good month the GOI will sell $7.5B in oil . We know that is at least 95% of the total income for the month. Pretty much tied to the price of oil. The lowest grade Iraqi civil servant is paid 500,000 Iqd for the month that is about 430 USD. Abadi stated in an interview last year that the total operating cost of the GOI ( salaries and pensions ) was 4.5T Iqd ( about 3,7B USD) . NOW if there would be a one cent RV ( X10 increase ) The cost to the GOI would be increased to 45T Iqd ( about 36B USD) Which would become almost 5 times the oil revenues!!!! How would the GOI make good on the payroll ? They could cut salaries or not pay on time as they have in the past but that would only be a temporary solution as the prices of anything imported and paid in dollars would have to increase,. A major problem.
  2. rockfl9

    Letus have a THINK

    So you think they will simply adjust the salaries after the RV! Well that presents a problem of how? You should have noticed that GOI employees are paid on a rotating basis thruogout the month , a forth in the first week , another fourth in the second, etc. Since it is usually cash paying all at once would be a big hit to the treasury,. Now the question , when do you pull the trigger? The last group gets paid at the full old rate the next three get partially screwed! Another problem is rents , contracts and loan payments how will they be adjusted ? They present legal issues that are very unlikely to be handled by current laws! Remember this all has to be handled in secret. The riots over bad water and poor services would be minor when the govt reduces salaries. Next consider what and when prices are adjusted. Without a warning would be mass confusion.
  3. rockfl9

    Letus have a THINK

    Hi Mark, NO it is not a pay raise... The civil service law guarantees all salaries. So they get paid the same amount of dinar at whatever the exchange rate! So he will get 500k IQD at the 1 US cent rate .. In fact everything valued in dinar gets the same (official ) value. The problem is that when the GOI puts up dollars in the "auction" instead of getting 1190 per dollar it only will get 100 !! So to meet the payroll it will have to put up 11 times the dollars to get enough dinar ! Don't you see that as a problem? It is a basic business rule "You can't pay out more than you take in.
  4. Currency exchanges are an even money deal. One traders gain is another's LOSS. SO WHO will buy a dinar for a dollar? Banks don't buy and hold foreign currencies , They broker it for third parties. The ultimate customer would/should be the CBI.. We know they only have enough reserve to back the .00086. OR maybe not. With the IMF requiring independent audits of al the GOI accounts maybe we will find out.
  5. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Not so SOCAL! Net Profits from gambling (lottos) in ANY amount ARE TAXABLE as ordinary income. In most cases you are on your honor to report them ,LOL. IF incorporated as a professional ( e.g. MRLUCKY LLC ) you can deduct losses. Floridian..... In spite of the "In it to win it " mentality that was here a short while back most would take money. BUT the expectations were to be a millionaire. A psychological setback and NO villa in belize , Yacht or big OSI deal .. Oh one more thing, better keep your day job. Seriously even a one cent RV would put the GOI in a hole they couldn't afford. DV is not an investment service , a rate or date is only an opinion, what you choose to believe is your own.
  6. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    I know he said that a couple years ago , at least more reasonable than typical GOOROOPOO at the time. I dont know what the guess is today , but of course if he goes any lower it would kill the profitable RV for most. It would take 10 mil Iqd to get a $1mil and you cant do an OSI for less. Oh , I forgot the taxes ! Simply do the math . It would take a real miracle.
  7. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    A while back it was reported that the the GOI needed 48T dinar a year just to cover salaries. Add to that pensions, subsidies and welfare the total bill is at least 60T. We know that 90+% of the GOI income comes from OIL. Currently looks like about $90B which converts to a little over 100T dinar and they must borrow to cover a shortage in the budget. SO IF they were to do a 10cent RV the revenue is reduced by 100X to only about 1T dinar!!!! They would be 59T dinar short !! HOW could they plan such a thing? It is impossible. The simplistic answer would be to cut salaries and benefit prices by 100X, BUT that puts everything back to square one , there would be NO windfall purchasing power increase. Then why do it. No matter what value of positive RV chosen the result is the same ... NO gain or a lot of trouble for the GOI.
  8. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    THIS statement is what I referred to? How would acquiring dollars and putting them in the NYFED keep the dinar from APPRECIATING ? Back in 2003 the rate was about 3000:1 .by 2005 it went to 2000:1 SO obviously it didnt help!!! So now if they RV the CBI willl have to give it all back and more! THAT would not be a smart move. IN a fixed exchange environment the bank can reduce appreciation by simply printing more or moving value from the reserve account. A very confusing statement when written by a banker.
  9. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    This statement does not make sense! First why would they prevent the dinar from appreciating , that would be BAD. Next if the CBI somehow got dollars AND put it into the reserves by definition that makes the dinar stronger. However IF they actually needed the extra reserves Because they needed to print more dinar (which I think was the case) to meet the demands of the economy ( i.e. the dinars increased POPULARITY). That would be just normal economic growth. In this case the CBI didnt BUY the dollars from the US they bought it from the MOF! Thereis no record of the UST holding a stash of dinar . Actually if they did it would be BAD for dinar holders . because it could flood the exchange market.
  10. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    CL 21: I remember ONE channel on only 4-11 PM. midnight on Sat. I am 81+ Debt is not always a bad thing ...Used correctly it accelerates progress. It is normal for world debt to grow larger, More people and more countries joining the ranks of developing status. TV and internet have removed many old barriers. The problem may be that some peoples are not adequately prepared for a credit based economy. Currency reform??? Like what ??? Under the BIS/IMF we pretty much already have world banking system. Not perfect but getting there. There will never be a fully backed national currency. It is political. We may see more consolidation like the Euro showing up in other regions.
  11. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    CL21: Thanks. You have some good points... Since all successful economies use conventional banking , it is hard to ignore . Fiat currencies are here to stay as well as fractional banking. Just think what your life would be IF you had to pay cash for that next new car??? That is what fractional banking provides. NEXT if all currencys HAD to be backed by some precious metal the expansion of a nations economy would be restricted to its ability to mine or obtain that metal.. Of course there are incidents where both practices have been abused. The IMF and BIS rules have been tightened to prevent those. If Iraq wants to become a full card-paying member of the international community it will have to abide by those rules. Of interest here is that IF it intends to offer up dinar it will have to compensate dinar holders at the same rate it does internally. That is in the IMF rules. THIS may be the reason that the CBI has restricted access to the IQD. i.e. not buying back the dinar out of country. THAT is the most important requirement to the RV story that has been ignored. The CBI could RV the IQD any time but I dont know why it would. But it is MOF policy , if not law that will prevent any IQD to dollar exchange outside of Iraq.
  12. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    the d CL21: When the UST/FED creates more dollars it is to obtain something of equal value at the time ... So economically the world,s value stays in balance. The RV as proposed is different . A dinar worth less than a tenth of a cent is expected to arbitrarily increase many times in value without adding anything to the world value. That is the problem. If , as the story goes , the CBI were to officially raise the exchange rate of the dinar to one dollar , the CBI must be willing to surrender a dollar to buy one. If it wont do that no one else will. I dont think the CBI is willing to buy back any dinar outside of the country.
  13. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    My thoughts on the election. Al-sadr is the champion of the poor people . He has seen the rich get richer thru the corruption. If he gets his way he will want to see the budget swing to increasing welfare and subsidies for the poor ... Even if oil revenues increase , the population increase will use it up. More have-nots.
  14. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Ca z: IF you were so sure that I am wrong you would not keep coming this thread. It does not take an investment expert to see the the flaws in the anticipated RV of the dinar, it is a classical CON. Somehow I think you know that .. You are what i call a :GHOST PUMPER" ... Let us just wait out this election fiasco and the next budget. Nothing is going to happen in RVland till that is over. Seeya then.
  15. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Being a "fixed exchange" type of currency the only way it can appreciate is for the central bank to increase the reserves without printing more . However this extra hard currency must come from outside the country. Moving money around inside doesnt change anything . During the years 2003 to 2007 the rate went quickly from 1500 to 1200 because the oil revenues were increasing and the CBI had more income than it needed so it was pumped into reserves... An appreciating currency is a sign of a healthy economy. Good show! Selling dinar for dollars would not have stopped the appreciation as long as the correct amount was placed in the reserves. The appreciation continued to 2010 when the rate fell to 1166! It was just good banking by Shabibi,! I dont think the UST bought any IQD. It does not show up on the balance sheet today. When the bottom fell out of the oil price the reverse happened . The CBI needed to put out more IQD but could not put the extra dollars in the reserves so the rate DEPRECIATED back to 1188 , now 1190. Even that is not a true rate because the reserves should be $73 Billion to support that rate. I dont know how they will set the next budget? The reserves are increasing , but also is the amount of dinar in circulation. To get to the mythical 10 cents the reserves would have to be an astronomical 8.8 Trillion USD! 80 times the current annual oil revenue.
  16. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    WE DON'T DISAGREE ! The monies we sent were Iraqi funds seized before the war . It was theirs . BUT nowhere does it say we PURCHASED IQD ..
  17. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    That is not what the article said. The money was Iraqi dollars that were released by EO. We knew most of the funds were there only it was all "electronic " and Iraqis needed spendable cash fast. There was a report on this in "the Economist Magazine. Before the attack our CIA was working with the Kurds in an attempt to remove Sadam and force a regime change. Several attempts to get him failed. The US was aware that Sadam had raided the Central bank 2 weeks before the start of the war we did not know if he was able to get it out of the country. He did not and most was recovered as the article states. Interestingly he did not attempt to take any gold , although some was pilfered by the retreating army most was recovered. When things settled out the central bank had about 10 Billion in cash and gold. That is what backed the new dinar. The UST balance sheet does not show ANY NON SDR holdings (i.e. Dinar) The cost of war has never been an on-budget item . The military acconting systems are a mess . Wars are a blank check to them. When it is over discrepacies are simply zeroed out.
  18. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    You are a MEANIE PP ! I've been thru crashes and wouldnt wish that on anyone . BUT ive learned and am fully backed up. Plus have 2 PC's a laptop and cell.
  19. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Dinarland IS the WILD. I am just passing the time reading the RUMORS. But along the way i am learning a lot about human nature . The dream of becoming rich in such a mundane "investment " can cause some people to loose all sense of logic. You are right most wont sell simply to do that would be too painful . Avoid the pain , keep the dream alive as long as possible. One more year and then another year. IT has to happen no matter how long it takes .. Avoid the pain.
  20. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    That link was a good find . I am not surprised that the UST has some HARD CURRENCY in the reserves . BUT note there are NO "non SDR " currencies ( dinar , dong, etc. ) listed ! That is what I really meant. The plane loads of dollars we sent in was relief money to keep people from starving , not to buy up dinar. The only dinar that existed then was the Sadam dinar and was of suspect value so merchants wouldnt take it . WE sent in mostly fives , tens and twentys.. that is why it took up so much space. For goodwill the area commanders were given the money to engage local labor. $15 for one days labor , a man with a truck was paid $30-50 for a day. Skilled/educated that could speak english , were hired as interpreters or coordinators for up to $200 a week. It was all spent! I personally did not read anywhere that quoted Bush saying the war wouldnt cost us ... After the fact DO you really still believe that? We are still paying!
  21. rockfl9

    Very useful website

    Tradingeconomics.com , you will Iraq in the countries tab under ASIA. Lots of significant data .
  22. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Putting more peoples' salaries on debit cards will allow them to hold off printing replacement notes for a while more. Pulling in "chunky money is another thing. I think typical Iraqi does not trust a bank or the GOI to know how much money they may actually have. Because there will be the question "Where did you get this?" Good article on "deleting the zeros" , makes it clear that it involves removing the zeros from ALL the bills and not just resetting the rate. It is a no profit adjustment of all the notes in circulation. NO new millionaires.
  23. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    I dont want to believe this but i think there are a number of people here that are old enough to have grandchildren that believe in a "dinar fairy". They don't know where it will come from but they expect to wake up one morning and the dinar under their pillow will have become dollars. Why bother dealing with a bank when a wish will do it? I know that sounds silly but what you are expecting is nearly the same. The CBi will declare an RV even though it doesnt have the funds to support one. The "Banks ?" will get the word and set up "redemption centers" to manage a mass exchange ! Sorry ,this is all BS and should be in RUMORS.
  24. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    These small bumps could just be an allowance for inflation. Looks like a plan !
  25. rockfl9

    Where's the money going to come from???/

    Under a fixed exchange rate system, only a decision by a country's government or monetary authority can alter the official value of the currency. Governments do, occasionally, take such measures, often in response to unusual market pressures. Devaluation, the deliberate downward adjustment in the official exchange rate, reduces the currency's value; in contrast, a revaluation is an upward change in the currency's value. In the last 3 years the CBI has taken the rate from 1166 to 1190 , a loss of 2 cents per dollar ! That would be a deliberate DOWNWARD adjustment . A DEVALUATION I think the next move is 1200 !
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